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8/3/2019 2011 12 01 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Exited at 1.3480. Breakeven. Awaiting New Sell Trade.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.AUD/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Look to sell higher.EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD Exited at 1740. Awaiting New Sell trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Sharp recovery following positive news.
Exited at 1.3480. Breakeven/Awaiting a New Sell Trade Setup.
EUR/USD extended sharply higher, as six central banks, reduced their USD
funding costs to ease the debt crisis. The impact was very positive for
investors around the world and has encouraged traditional risk appetite
markets, such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD and S&P500 to turn back higher.
Expect the recovery to be limited into 1.3610, then 1.3730 and perhaps
even 1.3850-90. Probability still favours a bearish reversal at these levels.
Meantime, support can be found at 1.3380 and 1.3146. A sustained close
beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger downtrend from
April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).
Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets
its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs
(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain
strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at 1.3480. Breakeven.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA(1.4092)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
(1.4000)
1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.76)
DEMARKBUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
9 MONTHHIGH
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf8/3/2019 2011 12 01 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Break over 1.5700 strengthens outlook further.
GBP/USD appears to have found a short-term base at 1.5423 for the time
being. Despite the reduction in the rate payable on USD based swap lines
yesterday, it is anticipated that the core problems that existed before the
reduction will resurface over coming days and weeks. Thus, Sterling has
the capacity to be deemed as a safe haven in the event that Euro-Zone
contagion returns. It is this reasoning that leads us to continue to favour a
return to the large range in GBP/USD, that has been witnessed for the
majority of the year.
Also, yesterdays failure to remain below 1.5700 warns of a more substantial
corrective phase higher. In fact, a push back over 1.5877 will imply that the
rise from 1.5423 is no longer corrective but likely part of a fresh swing to the
upside.
Given the reasoning above, EUR/GBP, can positively impact on GBP/USD,
if a break under 1.3146 can be achieved in EUR/USD.
We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation
of strategy.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Minor rebound capped at 78.24 (DeMark Level).
USD/JPYs minor rebound is still being capped at 78.24 (DeMark Level) .
Moreover, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of a third
price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentiallyeven a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal
Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
USD/JPY
QUAKESHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
PIR III
MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNANTICIPATE
SBREAKOUT(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf8/3/2019 2011 12 01 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Within the midst of a corrective phase.
Sell limit at 0.9300 missed and hence removed.
USD/CHF has broken the support of an hourly rising channel warning of an
end to the rising phase seen since 0.8568. A further fall is anticipatedtowards 0.9000 in the near-term, with a break back over 0.9252 required to
dampen the short-term bearish bias.
We are wary of selling at current levels as downside pressure from rising
Euro-Zone yields has eased somewhat following yesterdays reduction in
the interest rate offered on USD based swap lines. Spanish and Italian
government bonds remain elevated, currently trading at 6.152% and 7.015%
versus 6.478% and 7.355% yesterday.
We continue to monitor the German sovereign yield curve with ten yearyields there currently trading close to 2.252%, down from 2.302 yesterday.
Assuming German yields are also not pressured to the upside, this should
also act to ease downside pressure in USD/CHF
Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter
rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent
trading range.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Sharp Setbacks hold steady.
USD/CADs sharp setbacks are holding steady today, following the recent
short-term DeMark exhaustion sell signal.
A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
Only a sustained close beneath 1.0120 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks
into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9852 and 0.9726 (31st
Aug low).
EUR/CAD remains beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large multi-month
trading range. The strong multi-month distribution pattern is likely to
breakdown further into support levels at 1.3570 and 1.3380.
CHF/CAD has also broken back beneath its 200-day MA at 1.1375, while
maintaining a multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide
lower (which was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has
retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENSLARGER
RECOVERY
DEMARKBUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA0.9851
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50%(1.3570)
61.8%(1.3379)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.3874)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
50%
(1.1488)61.8%
(1.0893)
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Extended recovery beneath 200-day MA.
AUD/USD has extended its recovery into key resistance at 1.0340 (61.8%
Fib-Oct 28th
decline) and 200-day MA which is currently holding at 1.0412.
The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside
pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand
dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-
day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.
The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen
and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution
pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would
signal further unwinding of risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD(Weekly)
38.2%(0.9144)
50%(0.8546)
61.8%(0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELLSIGNALS
200-DMA1.0405
REVERSINGINTO
200-DMA
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(82.58)
13
38.2%(76.70)
61.8%(68.47)
50%(72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARKSELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION
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Initial signs of exhaustion emerge.
Missed buy. Buy strategy is now removed.
GBP/JPY failed to correct lower after reaching 121.89. This suggests that
the corrective phase from 119.38 may be over and thus we have removedour strategy.
The bias now returns to negative again, with scope for a degree of support
to manifest, should a fall to the 120.00 region materialise. We are also
biased by the formation of a rising wedge in the hourly timeframe, which is
potentially forming a false break higher, again a negative for the near-term
outlook.
A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.
Over a longer period of time a substantial recovery higher is favoured,
initially towards 163.09.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy strategy removed. Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Potentially in the final phases of a correction higher.
EUR/JPY appears to be in the final phases of a correction higher from the
recent low at 102.49.
We also view the fall that has taken place since 111.60 as being correctivein nature, suggesting potential for a return to this same level.
However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the
movement in EUR/USD. A break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the
rising phase seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall
back down to 100.76 and potentially lower.
Given the above clash between the structure and the deterioration in the
Euro-Zone, we prefer to wait on the sidelines.
A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-
term outlook more bullish.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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Failed momentum warns of a larger corrective phase higher.
Yesterdays strategy to sell at 0.8560 was negated with the push back under
0.8528. The bias remains negative.
EUR/GBP failed to gain momentum again, this time in the hourly timeframe,after breaking under 0.8528. This now warns of a larger rise higher, back
towards the 0.8700 region. As has already been seen following the recent
push under 0.8530/31, this failure to garner momentum is a hallmark of this
currency pair in recent trade. Thus the strategy remains to sell, but at
higher levels.
Given the precarious situation in the Euro-Zone, it is anticipated that if yield
curve deterioration continues then Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven.
Italian and Spanish government bond yields have eased back somewhat
after the coordinated cut in USD based swap lines amongst selected central
banks yesterday. However, a lasting solution still appears a long way off
with yesterdays intervention simply easing a dire situation.
Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200
day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in
EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of
confidence in the EUR, which would then likely have a knock on effect on all
EUR crosses.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Look to sell higher.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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A re-test of the 1.2123/31 region anticipated.
EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight range failing to meet the 1.2500 level.
Downside pressure is favoured to resume as yields on Italian and Spanish
sovereign debt remain elevated. Over time, this may lead to a renewed
desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.
Our strategy is to trade opportunistically from a momentum perspective,
awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region
take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end
of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to
this level.
Near-term, a break back under 1.2226 will warn of a failure to re-test the
1.2500 region, suggesting an earlier return to 1.2123/31. In any case, a re-
test of the base of the recent trading range is anticipated over coming
sessions.
The failure of this pair to break over the 50 week moving average over
recent weeks is also an initial warning that the prior downtrend may not be
over. The large cluster of stops that is likely to be placed around the 1.2000
level is also anticipated to aid any short positioning, questioning the ability of
the SNB to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Bulls need to close above $1800.
Exited short position at $1740. Short-term price activity remains negative
beneath resistance at $1800, despite the recent push higher. A close above
here would help the bulls develop a more sustained recovery into $1845.
Meanwhile, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we
confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/04 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing
low), which has not been breached in 3 years!
A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000.
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long goldpositions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at $1740. Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1704
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530
UPSIDE: 1760 / 1844
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf8/3/2019 2011 12 01 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Key support at $30.0000.
Lowered stop to 34.1300, breakeven, thereby ensuring a risk-free trade.
Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close
below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the
major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces
volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to
recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARKSELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.9951)
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Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
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