2011 12 01 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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  • 8/3/2019 2011 12 01 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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    MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

    Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

    Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

    WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

    MA

    S-TERMMULTI-DAY

    L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

    STRATEGY/POSITION

    ENTRYLEVEL

    OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

    EUR/USD Exited at 1.3480. Breakeven. Awaiting New Sell Trade.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.AUD/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Look to sell higher.EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230GOLD Exited at 1740. Awaiting New Sell trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

    DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

    Ron William, CMT, MSTA

    Bijoy Kar, CFA

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

    point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

    published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

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    Sharp recovery following positive news.

    Exited at 1.3480. Breakeven/Awaiting a New Sell Trade Setup.

    EUR/USD extended sharply higher, as six central banks, reduced their USD

    funding costs to ease the debt crisis. The impact was very positive for

    investors around the world and has encouraged traditional risk appetite

    markets, such as EUR/USD, AUD/USD and S&P500 to turn back higher.

    Expect the recovery to be limited into 1.3610, then 1.3730 and perhaps

    even 1.3850-90. Probability still favours a bearish reversal at these levels.

    Meantime, support can be found at 1.3380 and 1.3146. A sustained close

    beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger downtrend from

    April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

    Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets

    its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

    Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

    (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

    strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

    extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

    Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

    MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Exited at 1.3480. Breakeven.

    EUR/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    200-DMA(1.4092)

    BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

    BREAKOUTS

    UPTREND(2 YEARS)

    EUR/USD (Daily)

    BREAKOUTZONE

    (1.4000)

    1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

    +

    -

    USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

    +27% +19%

    TRIGGER(15000)

    COT LIQUIDITY

    +10%SO FAR

    EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

    9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

    13

    USD INDEX

    200-DMA(75.76)

    DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

    BREAKOUT ZONE

    EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

    9 MONTHHIGH

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

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    Break over 1.5700 strengthens outlook further.

    GBP/USD appears to have found a short-term base at 1.5423 for the time

    being. Despite the reduction in the rate payable on USD based swap lines

    yesterday, it is anticipated that the core problems that existed before the

    reduction will resurface over coming days and weeks. Thus, Sterling has

    the capacity to be deemed as a safe haven in the event that Euro-Zone

    contagion returns. It is this reasoning that leads us to continue to favour a

    return to the large range in GBP/USD, that has been witnessed for the

    majority of the year.

    Also, yesterdays failure to remain below 1.5700 warns of a more substantial

    corrective phase higher. In fact, a push back over 1.5877 will imply that the

    rise from 1.5423 is no longer corrective but likely part of a fresh swing to the

    upside.

    Given the reasoning above, EUR/GBP, can positively impact on GBP/USD,

    if a break under 1.3146 can be achieved in EUR/USD.

    We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation

    of strategy.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    GBP/USD

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

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    Minor rebound capped at 78.24 (DeMark Level).

    USD/JPYs minor rebound is still being capped at 78.24 (DeMark Level) .

    Moreover, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of a third

    price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR III) and potentiallyeven a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL).

    Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

    pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

    to call the market bottom.

    This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

    psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

    would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

    which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

    The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

    major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

    points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

    move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

    Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

    Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

    Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

    Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    82.00

    83.30

    USD/JPY

    QUAKESHOCK!

    POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

    POSTG7

    MOVE (I)HIGH

    PIR II

    80.24

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (II)HIGH

    DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

    POSTBOJ

    MOVE (III)HIGH

    PIR III

    MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL

    USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

    ENDINGDIAGONAL

    PATTERNANTICIPATE

    SBREAKOUT(85-79)

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

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    Within the midst of a corrective phase.

    Sell limit at 0.9300 missed and hence removed.

    USD/CHF has broken the support of an hourly rising channel warning of an

    end to the rising phase seen since 0.8568. A further fall is anticipatedtowards 0.9000 in the near-term, with a break back over 0.9252 required to

    dampen the short-term bearish bias.

    We are wary of selling at current levels as downside pressure from rising

    Euro-Zone yields has eased somewhat following yesterdays reduction in

    the interest rate offered on USD based swap lines. Spanish and Italian

    government bonds remain elevated, currently trading at 6.152% and 7.015%

    versus 6.478% and 7.355% yesterday.

    We continue to monitor the German sovereign yield curve with ten yearyields there currently trading close to 2.252%, down from 2.302 yesterday.

    Assuming German yields are also not pressured to the upside, this should

    also act to ease downside pressure in USD/CHF

    Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter

    rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent

    trading range.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.

    USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    USD/CHF

    USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

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    Sharp Setbacks hold steady.

    USD/CADs sharp setbacks are holding steady today, following the recent

    short-term DeMark exhaustion sell signal.

    A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

    recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

    rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

    Only a sustained close beneath 1.0120 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

    into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9852 and 0.9726 (31st

    Aug low).

    EUR/CAD remains beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large multi-month

    trading range. The strong multi-month distribution pattern is likely to

    breakdown further into support levels at 1.3570 and 1.3380.

    CHF/CAD has also broken back beneath its 200-day MA at 1.1375, while

    maintaining a multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide

    lower (which was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has

    retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting New Buy Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    USD/CAD (Weekly)

    CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

    OPENSLARGER

    RECOVERY

    DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

    USD/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA0.9851

    MAJOR RESISTANCE

    50%(1.3570)

    61.8%(1.3379)

    EUR/CAD (Daily)

    200-DMA(1.3874)

    REVERSALPATTERN

    CHF/CAD (Daily)

    50%

    (1.1488)61.8%

    (1.0893)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Extended recovery beneath 200-day MA.

    AUD/USD has extended its recovery into key resistance at 1.0340 (61.8%

    Fib-Oct 28th

    decline) and 200-day MA which is currently holding at 1.0412.

    The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

    pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

    Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

    dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

    day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon.

    The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen

    and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution

    pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would

    signal further unwinding of risk appetite.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

    AUD/USD

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    AUD/USD(Weekly)

    38.2%(0.9144)

    50%(0.8546)

    61.8%(0.7947)

    3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

    PRESSURE

    STRUCTURALLEVEL

    KEYZONE

    AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

    DEMARK SELLSIGNALS

    200-DMA1.0405

    REVERSINGINTO

    200-DMA

    AUD/NZD(Daily)

    KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

    200-DMA

    (82.58)

    13

    38.2%(76.70)

    61.8%(68.47)

    50%(72.58)

    AUD/JPY(Daily)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

    RESUMPTION OF

    BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Initial signs of exhaustion emerge.

    Missed buy. Buy strategy is now removed.

    GBP/JPY failed to correct lower after reaching 121.89. This suggests that

    the corrective phase from 119.38 may be over and thus we have removedour strategy.

    The bias now returns to negative again, with scope for a degree of support

    to manifest, should a fall to the 120.00 region materialise. We are also

    biased by the formation of a rising wedge in the hourly timeframe, which is

    potentially forming a false break higher, again a negative for the near-term

    outlook.

    A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.

    Over a longer period of time a substantial recovery higher is favoured,

    initially towards 163.09.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Buy strategy removed. Await fresh signal.

    GBP/JPY

    GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Potentially in the final phases of a correction higher.

    EUR/JPY appears to be in the final phases of a correction higher from the

    recent low at 102.49.

    We also view the fall that has taken place since 111.60 as being correctivein nature, suggesting potential for a return to this same level.

    However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the

    movement in EUR/USD. A break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the

    rising phase seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall

    back down to 100.76 and potentially lower.

    Given the above clash between the structure and the deterioration in the

    Euro-Zone, we prefer to wait on the sidelines.

    A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-

    term outlook more bullish.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/JPY

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Failed momentum warns of a larger corrective phase higher.

    Yesterdays strategy to sell at 0.8560 was negated with the push back under

    0.8528. The bias remains negative.

    EUR/GBP failed to gain momentum again, this time in the hourly timeframe,after breaking under 0.8528. This now warns of a larger rise higher, back

    towards the 0.8700 region. As has already been seen following the recent

    push under 0.8530/31, this failure to garner momentum is a hallmark of this

    currency pair in recent trade. Thus the strategy remains to sell, but at

    higher levels.

    Given the precarious situation in the Euro-Zone, it is anticipated that if yield

    curve deterioration continues then Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven.

    Italian and Spanish government bond yields have eased back somewhat

    after the coordinated cut in USD based swap lines amongst selected central

    banks yesterday. However, a lasting solution still appears a long way off

    with yesterdays intervention simply easing a dire situation.

    Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200

    day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in

    EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of

    confidence in the EUR, which would then likely have a knock on effect on all

    EUR crosses.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Look to sell higher.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/GBP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    A re-test of the 1.2123/31 region anticipated.

    EUR/CHF continues to trade in a tight range failing to meet the 1.2500 level.

    Downside pressure is favoured to resume as yields on Italian and Spanish

    sovereign debt remain elevated. Over time, this may lead to a renewed

    desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.

    Our strategy is to trade opportunistically from a momentum perspective,

    awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region

    take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end

    of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to

    this level.

    Near-term, a break back under 1.2226 will warn of a failure to re-test the

    1.2500 region, suggesting an earlier return to 1.2123/31. In any case, a re-

    test of the base of the recent trading range is anticipated over coming

    sessions.

    The failure of this pair to break over the 50 week moving average over

    recent weeks is also an initial warning that the prior downtrend may not be

    over. The large cluster of stops that is likely to be placed around the 1.2000

    level is also anticipated to aid any short positioning, questioning the ability of

    the SNB to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND

    Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

    EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    EUR/CHF

    EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Bulls need to close above $1800.

    Exited short position at $1740. Short-term price activity remains negative

    beneath resistance at $1800, despite the recent push higher. A close above

    here would help the bulls develop a more sustained recovery into $1845.

    Meanwhile, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we

    confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/04 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing

    low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

    A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

    benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

    lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000.

    Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

    a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long goldpositions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

    ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

    Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

    Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

    Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    Exited at $1740. Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

    GOLD

    Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

    I

    RISK ZONE III

    CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

    26%

    34%

    20%SO FAR

    25%

    II

    COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

    OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

    GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

    IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

    200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

    DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

    BREAKOUT

    $1704

    $1600

    DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530

    UPSIDE: 1760 / 1844

    GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

    $1532

    DOUBLETOP

    $1760

    http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf
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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

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    Key support at $30.0000.

    Lowered stop to 34.1300, breakeven, thereby ensuring a risk-free trade.

    Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close

    below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.

    Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

    major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

    volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

    recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

    Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

    multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

    Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

    term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

    resumption higher.

    Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

    higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

    This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.

    S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

    SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

    SILVER

    Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP

    Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

    BULLMARKET

    FROM1999

    Silver Monthly (since 1980)

    13

    38.2%(32.3135)

    50%(26.9150)

    61.8%

    (21.5165)

    I

    II

    OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

    Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL

    13 YEAR LEVEL

    UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

    Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

    KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

    DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

    Silver (Daily)

    200 DMA(36.9951)

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Limitation of liability

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    Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

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    Copyright

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    distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

    Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

    unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

    (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

    orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

    sent between reports.

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    DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT1 December, 2011

    www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

    MIG [email protected]

    14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

    Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

    CONTACT

    Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]

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