DOCKETED Docket Number: 20-IEPR-03

Project Title: Electricity and Natural Gas

TN #: 235841

Document Title: Presentation - Transportation Energy Demand Forecast

Description: S1. 01 Bahreinian, Aniss, Transportation Energy Demand

Forecast

Filer: Raquel Kravitz

Organization: California Energy Commission

Submitter Role: Commission Staff

Submission Date: 12/3/2020 7:41:04 AM

Docketed Date: 12/3/2020

Transportation Energy Demand Forecast

2020 IEPR Update

2020 IEPR WorkshopDecember 3, 2020

Aniss BahreinianAniss.Bahreinian@energy.ca.gov

Overview

• COVID 19 Impact on 2020 Fuel Consumption• Models & Scenarios• Transportation Energy Demand by Fuel & Vehicle Type

• ZEV Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts• Other Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (Appendix)

• Transportation Energy prices (Appendix)

2

Transportation Energy Consumption

3

Transportation Energy

Consumption

Vehicle Population

Vehicle Miles

Traveled

Fuel Economy

2020 Monthly Fuel Consumption:COVID Impact

Gasoline Diesel

4

2017 Vehicle Population 

(from California DMV, NTD)

CA TransportationEnergy Price Forecasts

Economic/Demographic  Forecasts & Other Data

Vehicle Attributes(forecast)

Fuel Price Forecast(from U.S. EIA)

Regulatory ImpactCorporate Avg. Fuel 

EconomyCalifornia ZEV Program

California On‐road/railTransportation Energy Demand

Urban Travel

Intercity Travel

Truck Choice AviationPersonal 

Vehicle Choice

Freight Stock & Fuel (forecast)

California Vehicle Population(forecast)

2017 California Vehicle Survey

(Household, Commercial, PEV)

Freight Movement

LDV Stock & Fuel (forecast)

LDV Stock & Fuel (forecast)

Government Rental &

NEV

Other Bus

Incentives

MD/HD Stock(forecast)

LDV Stock(forecast)

Commercial Vehicle Choice

5

Energy Commission’s Transportation Energy Demand Forecasting Models

Demand Forecasting Scenarios are Electricity-Based

Demand Case Population Growth

Income Growth

Fuel Prices

Petroleum Fuels

Electricity, (Pipeline) Gas,

Hydrogen

High Demand High High High Low

Mid Demand Mid Mid Mid Mid

Low Demand Low Low Low High

6

2019 Transportation Energy Distribution by Fuel Type and Vehicle Type

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

MD/HD/Rail LDV

Bill

ions

of G

GE

Gasoline Diesel E85 Electricity Gas Hydrogen propane

85%

96%

7

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Transportation Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type: 2019 vs 2030 High Demand Case

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Diesel Gasoline Gas Electricity Hydrogen E85 Propane

Mill

ions

of G

GE

2019 2030

8

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Total Transportation Energy Demand Forecast

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Trill

ions

of B

TUs

Low Mid High

9Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Transportation Electricity Demand Forecast

10

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

GW

h

Low Mid High

Transportation Hydrogen Demand Forecast

 ‐

 5

 10

 15

 20

 25

 30

 35

 40

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Million of Kilo

gram

s

Low Mid HighSource: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

11

Transportation Forecasting Team

• Heidi Javanbakht (Unit Supervisor)• Aniss Bahreinian• Jesse Gage: DMV Analyst, Government and Rental LDV Forecast

• Elena Giyenko: Other Bus Forecast

• Alexander Lonsdale: EV Load Shape Forecast

• Bob McBride: Truck Choice and Freight, MD/HD Forecast

• Mark Palmere: LDV Forecast

• Elizabeth Pham: ZEV Portal

• Ysbrand van der Werf: Fuel Price Forecast, Urban/Intercity Travel

12

Appendices

13

Gasoline Demand Forecast

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Billion

s of G

GE

Low Mid High

14

Diesel Demand Forecast

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Bill

ions

of D

iese

l Gal

lons

Low Mid High

15Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Transportation Gas Demand Forecast

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Mill

ions

of T

herm

s

Low Mid High

16

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Ethanol (E85) Demand Forecast

20

25

30

35

40

45

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Mill

ions

of E

85 G

allo

ns

Low Mid High

17

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Transportation Propane Demand Forecast

-

6

12

18

2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Mill

ions

of P

ropa

ne G

allo

ns

Low Mid High

18

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

Transportation Energy Price Forecast

19

California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019

California Gasoline

California Diesel

$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/DGE $/DGE $/DGE

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

2019 $3.68 $3.68 $3.68 2019 $3.92 $3.92 $3.922020 $3.59 $3.59 $3.59 2020 $3.83 $3.83 $3.832021 $2.29 $2.77 $3.23 2021 $2.42 $2.90 $3.602022 $2.27 $2.76 $3.37 2022 $2.45 $2.91 $3.792023 $2.25 $2.74 $3.57 2023 $2.43 $2.89 $4.042024 $2.22 $2.70 $3.66 2024 $2.44 $2.89 $4.142025 $2.20 $2.71 $3.70 2025 $2.44 $2.85 $4.212026 $2.20 $2.70 $3.76 2026 $2.43 $2.85 $4.252027 $2.20 $2.71 $3.76 2027 $2.42 $2.79 $4.202028 $2.19 $2.69 $3.80 2028 $2.40 $2.75 $4.202029 $2.18 $2.69 $3.91 2029 $2.39 $2.69 $4.302030 $2.22 $2.73 $3.92 2030 $2.42 $2.65 $4.24

20

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis

California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019

Electricity Electricity HydrogenCommercial Rates

$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE Residential Rates

$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand Year

Low Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

2019 $5.54 $5.54 $5.54 2019 $6.24 $6.24 $6.24 2019 $16.55 $16.55 $16.552020 $5.78 $5.78 $5.78 2020 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 2020 $16.00 $16.00 $16.002021 $6.08 $5.93 $5.86 2021 $6.90 $6.75 $6.67 2021 $14.87 $15.46 $16.062022 $6.22 $6.03 $5.86 2022 $7.13 $6.93 $6.73 2022 $14.03 $14.91 $15.812023 $6.15 $5.99 $5.73 2023 $7.09 $6.92 $6.62 2023 $13.19 $14.37 $15.572024 $6.20 $5.99 $5.68 2024 $7.13 $6.91 $6.55 2024 $12.35 $13.82 $15.332025 $6.43 $6.16 $5.79 2025 $7.37 $7.07 $6.64 2025 $11.51 $13.28 $15.082026 $6.63 $6.29 $5.85 2026 $7.55 $7.18 $6.67 2026 $10.67 $12.73 $14.842027 $6.79 $6.39 $5.87 2027 $7.69 $7.25 $6.66 2027 $9.83 $12.19 $14.592028 $6.97 $6.52 $5.90 2028 $7.85 $7.35 $6.66 2028 $8.99 $11.64 $14.352029 $7.17 $6.63 $5.92 2029 $8.04 $7.44 $6.66 2029 $8.15 $11.10 $14.102030 $7.36 $6.75 $5.94 2030 $8.22 $7.54 $6.64 2030 $7.31 $10.55 $13.86

Note that a hydrogen price of $5.86/GGE ($6.50/kg) was used in the MD-HD high case, representing a right-sized station for a dedicated fleet

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis21

California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019

Propane for Transportation

Pipeline Gas forTransportation

Pipeline Gas forTransportation

$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/DGE $/DGE $/DGE

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

YearLow

Electricity Demand

Mid Demand

High Electricity Demand

2019 $1.94 $1.94 $1.94 2019 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 2019 $2.33 $2.33 $2.342020 $1.93 $1.93 $1.93 2020 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 2020 $2.33 $2.33 $2.332021 $1.84 $2.01 $2.17 2021 $1.99 $2.01 $2.02 2021 $2.31 $2.33 $2.342022 $1.86 $2.09 $2.35 2022 $1.99 $2.00 $2.02 2022 $2.31 $2.33 $2.342023 $1.89 $2.14 $2.54 2023 $1.99 $2.00 $2.01 2023 $2.31 $2.32 $2.342024 $1.92 $2.19 $2.72 2024 $1.99 $2.00 $2.01 2024 $2.31 $2.32 $2.342025 $1.95 $2.27 $2.91 2025 $1.98 $2.00 $2.01 2025 $2.30 $2.32 $2.332026 $1.98 $2.34 $3.08 2026 $1.98 $1.99 $2.01 2026 $2.30 $2.31 $2.332027 $1.99 $2.38 $3.21 2027 $1.98 $1.99 $2.00 2027 $2.29 $2.31 $2.332028 $1.99 $2.40 $3.29 2028 $1.97 $1.99 $2.00 2028 $2.29 $2.31 $2.322029 $1.99 $2.41 $3.40 2029 $1.97 $1.99 $2.00 2029 $2.29 $2.30 $2.322030 $2.03 $2.47 $3.44 2030 $1.97 $1.98 $2.00 2030 $2.29 $2.30 $2.32

22

Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis