California Energy Demand 2014-2024 Final Forecast, ??CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2014–2024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, End‐User Natural Gas Demand, and

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  • CALIFORNIAENERGYDEMAND

    20142024FINALFORECAST

    Volume1:StatewideElectricityDemand,EndUserNaturalGasDemand,andEnergyEfficiency

    DECEMBER 2013

    CEC 200 2013 004 SF V1

    CALIFORNIAENERGYCOMMISSION

    EdmundG.BrownJr.,Governor

    CaliforniaEnergyCommission

    STAFFFINALREPORT

  • CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONBryan Alcorn Mark Ciminelli Nicholas Fugate Asish Gautam Chris Kavalec Kate Sullivan Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Contributing AuthorsChris Kavalec Project ManagerAndrea Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director

    DISCLAIMER Staff members of the California Energy Commission prepared this report. As such, it does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees, or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the Energy Commission nor has the Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report.

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    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

    ThedemandforecastisthecombinedproductofthehardworkandexpertiseofnumerousCaliforniaEnergyCommissionstaffmembersintheDemandAnalysisOffice.Inadditiontothecontributingauthorslistedpreviously,MohsenAbrishamipreparedthecommercialsectorforecast.MehrzadSoltaniNiahelpedpreparetheindustrialforecast.TedDangrantheSummaryModel.CaryGarciapreparedtheweatherdata.AndreaGoughsuperviseddatapreparation.StevenMacandKeithOBrienpreparedthehistoricalenergyconsumptiondata.NahidMovassaghforecastedconsumptionfortheagricultureandwaterpumpingsectors.CynthiaRogersandDougKemmerdevelopedtheenergyefficiencyprogramestimates.MargaretSheridanprovidedestimatesfordemandresponseprogramimpactsandcontributedtotheresidentialforecast.MitchTianpreparedthepeakdemandforecast.RavinderpalVaidprovidedtheprojectionsofcommercialfloorspaceandnumberofhouseholds.FloydKeneippandSuryaSwamiofNavigantConsultingprovidedvaluableassistanceindevelopingtheestimatesofadditionalachievableenergyefficiencysavings.

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    ABSTRACT

    TheCaliforniaEnergyDemand20142024FinalForecast,Volume1:StatewideElectricityDemandandMethods,EndUserNaturalGasDemand,andEnergyEfficiencydescribestheCaliforniaEnergyCommissionsfinalbaselineforecastsfor20142024electricityconsumption,peak,andnaturalgasdemandforeachoffivemajorelectricityplanningareasandthreenaturalgasdistributionareasandforthestateasawhole.Thisforecastsupportstheanalysisandrecommendationsofthe2012IntegratedEnergyPolicyReportUpdateandthe2013IntegratedEnergyPolicyReport.Theforecastincludesthreescenarios:ahighenergydemandcase,alowenergydemandcase,andamidenergydemandcase.Thehighenergydemandcaseincorporatesrelativelyhigheconomic/demographicgrowth,relativelylowelectricityandnaturalgasrates,andrelativelylowefficiencyprogramandselfgenerationimpacts.Thelowenergydemandcaseincludeslowereconomic/demographicgrowth,higherassumedrates,andhigherefficiencyprogramandselfgenerationimpacts.Themidcaseusesinputassumptionsatlevelsbetweenthehighandlowcases.Forecastsareprovidedatboththeplanningareaandclimatezonelevel.Inadditiontothebaselineforecast,additionalachievableenergyefficiencysavingsareestimatedforthethreeinvestorownedutilityserviceterritories.Adjustedforecastsincorporatingthesesavingsareprovidedfortheseareas.

    Keywords:Electricity,demand,consumption,forecast,weathernormalization,peak,naturalgas,selfgeneration,conservation,energyefficiency,climatezone,forecastmethods,additionalachievableenergyefficiency.

    Pleaseusethefollowingcitationforthisreport:

    Kavalec,Chris,NicholasFugate,BryanAlcorn,MarkCiminelli,AsishGautam,KateSullivan,andMalachiWengGutierrez.2013.CaliforniaEnergyDemand20142024FinalForecast,Volume1:StatewideElectricityDemand,EndUserNaturalGasDemand,andEnergyEfficiency.CaliforniaEnergyCommission,ElectricitySupplyAnalysisDivision.PublicationNumber:CEC2002013004SFVI.

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    TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

    Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................................i

    Abstract...............................................................................................................................................iii

    EXECUTIVESUMMARY..................................................................................................................1

    Introduction..........................................................................................................................................1

    BaselineElectricityForecastResults.................................................................................................1

    BaselineNaturalGasForecastResults.............................................................................................4

    CommittedConservation/Efficiency................................................................................................5

    AdditionalAchievableEnergyEfficiency........................................................................................6

    SummaryofChangestoForecast......................................................................................................8

    CHAPTER1:StatewideBaselineForecastResultsandMethods.............................................9

    Introduction..........................................................................................................................................9

    SummaryofChangestoForecast....................................................................................................10

    ChangesFromRevisedtoFinalForecast...............................................................................11

    StatewideBaselineForecastResults...............................................................................................12

    AnnualElectricityConsumption.............................................................................................14

    StatewideBaselinePeakDemand...........................................................................................17

    BaselineNaturalGasDemandForecast.................................................................................21

    OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions.......................................................................................22

    EconomicandDemographicAssumptions...........................................................................25

    ElectricityandNaturalGasRateProjections.........................................................................32

    Conservation/EfficiencyImpacts.............................................................................................35

    DemandResponse.....................................................................................................................36

    SelfGeneration..........................................................................................................................37

    ElectricLightDutyVehicles....................................................................................................41

    AdditionalElectrification.........................................................................................................44

    NaturalGasLightDutyVehicles............................................................................................46

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    SubregionalElectricityAnalysis..............................................................................................46

    HistoricalElectricityConsumptionEstimates.......................................................................47

    StructureofReport............................................................................................................................48

    CHAPTER2:EndUserNaturalGasDemandForecast.............................................................51

    StatewideBaselineForecastResults...............................................................................................51

    PlanningAreaBaselineResults.......................................................................................................55

    PacificGasandElectricPlanningArea..................................................................................55

    SouthernCaliforniaGasCompanyPlanningArea...............................................................61

    SanDiegoGas&ElectricPlanningArea................................................................................67

    CHAPTER3:CommittedEnergyEfficiencyandConservation..............................................75

    Introduction........................................................................................................................................75

    CommittedEnergyEfficiency..........................................................................................................75

    CommittedEfficiencyPrograms.............................................................................................80

    PriceEffects................................................................................................................................83

    BuildingCodesandApplianceStandards.............................................................................83

    CHAPTER4:AdditionalAchievableEnergyEfficiency...........................................................87

    Background...................................................................................................................