Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Preliminary Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast
Joint Lead Commissioner WorkshopPreliminary Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts
June 24, 2015
Gordon SchrempEnergy Assessments Division
California Energy Commission
Presentation Overview
• Aviation fuels– Types and near-term historical consumption
• Aviation fuel forecast approach– Federal information resources
• Historical data• FAA projections
– Adjustments based on California relationship to national trends
• Preliminary aviation fuel forecast results– Enplaned passengers – U.S. and California– Fuel consumption per passenger– California commercial jet fuel consumption
6/24/2015 2California Energy Commission
Aviation Fuels• Three types:
– Aviation gasoline, military jet fuel, and commercial jet fuel
• Historical data resources & methodology– Aviation gasoline
• Monthly data published by the California State Board of Equalization (BOE)
– Military jet fuel – JP5 and JP8• Supply/demand balance constructed based on:
– Defense Logistics Agency (DLA Energy) solicitation packages & addendums– CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports & pipeline exports– Regional analysis for CA, AZ, NV & NM– 67 individual locations – delivery terminals and military bases
– Commercial jet fuel – Jet A• Supply/demand balance constructed based on:
– CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports/exports & pipeline exports– Regional analysis for CA, AZ & NV
– BOE publishes taxable jet fuel volumes – for private jets, not in-plane fueling of commercial aircraft
6/24/2015 3California Energy Commission
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gal
lons
Commercial Jet Fuel Military Jet Fuel Aviation Gasoline
California Aviation Fuel Demand (2004 – 2013)
California Energy Commission
Sources: Board of Equalization, Defense Logistics Agency, and PIIRA data.
6/24/2015 4
Commercial jet fuel dominates aviation fuel use accounting for 91.4 percent of total over the last decade while military jet fuel amounted to 8 percent and aviation gasoline only 0.6 percent.
Aviation Fuel Forecast Approach
• Aviation fuel demand projections developed for California, not part of CEC transportation forecast modeling
• No aviation gasoline demand projections• Commercial jet fuel demand forecast based on federal
projections of:– Enplaned passenger projections for California– Fuel consumption relationship for enplaned passengers
6/24/2015 5California Energy Commission
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
• Annual publication – 20-year outlook• Fuel consumption projections for
domestic and international activity for U.S. carriers– Includes passenger & cargo
• Passenger traffic projections– Enplaned passenger projections by
airport
• Fuel use forecasts assumptions for– Load factors by aircraft type– Fuel efficiency improvements
• Passenger and cargo projections based on– Economic growth, fuel prices, etc.
6/24/2015 6California Energy Commission
Historical Aviation Data
• Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)– Track information on aviation activity
• Domestic and international carriers• Numbers of passengers boarding planes – enplaned passengers• Routes & segments• Passenger miles traveled• Air cargo – ton miles• Fuel consumption by domestic and international activity
– Historical files can be extracted from their T100 database• Actual revenue passenger enplanements for all California airports• Used to calibrate historical fuel consumption data through most current year
available from BTS database
6/24/2015 7California Energy Commission
Additional Forecast Adjustments
• FAA forecasts for fuel consumption are national projections only, no state-specific forecasts
• California enplaned passenger forecasts used to adjust per-passenger fuel consumption projections
• California historical average fuel consumption per enplaned passenger already higher than national average– Greater percentage of international destinations compared to U.S.
average
• FAA forecasts do not include high and low demand cases
6/24/2015 8California Energy Commission
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Mill
ions
of P
asse
nger
s
International Forecast
International Historical
Domestic Forecast
Domestic HistoricalSource: California Energy Commission analysis of FAA historical and forecast data.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) averaged 1.16 percent per year between 2009 and 2014 for domestic passenger enplanements, 1.51 percent between 2015 and 2025.
CAGR averaged 3.64 percent per year between 2009 and 2014 for international passenger enplanements, 3.79 percent between 2015 and 2025.
International aviation destination growth rate more than double domestic passenger growth.
CAGR averaged 1.43 percent per year between 2009 and 2014 for combined passenger enplanements, 1.80 percent between 2015 and 2025.
U.S. Enplaned Passengers (2004 – 2025)
California Energy Commission6/24/2015 9
89.40
80.07
91.25
120.11
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Mill
ions
of P
asse
nger
s
Axis Title
Historical
Forecast
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of FAA historical and forecast data.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) averaged 2.65 percent per year between 2009 and 2014, 2.49 percent between 2015 and 2025.
California Enplaned Passengers (2004 – 2025)
California Energy Commission6/24/2015 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Gal
lons
Per
Enp
lane
d Pa
ssen
ger
Axis Title
Domestic Historical Domestic ForecastInternational Historical International ForecastCalifornia Historical California ForecastU.S. Combined Historical U.S. Combined Forecast
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of FAA historical and forecast data.
Fuel consumption per enplaned passenger continues to improve through advances in efficiency of fleet and increased load factors.California consumption per enplaned passenger higher than U.S. average due to greater portion of international destinations.
Consumption Per Passenger (2004 – 2025)
California Energy Commission6/24/2015 11
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Mill
ions
of G
allo
ns o
f Com
mer
cial
Jet F
uel
Source: California Energy Commission analysis of FAA historical and forecast data.
California growth rate for consumption of commercial jet fuel slows over the forecast period due to continual improvement in fuel efficiency.
Compound Annual Growth Rate averaged 2.42 percent per year between 2009 and 2014 for consumption of commercial jet fuel, 2.12 percent between 2015 and 2025.
California Jet Fuel Demand (2004 – 2025)
California Energy Commission6/24/2015 12
Questions?
California Energy Commission6/24/2015 13
