Crude Oil Screening General Meeting · PDF fileCrude Oil Screening ‐General Meeting Results of Crude Oil Marketing Name Analysis Gordon Schremp California Energy Commission September

Crude Oil Screening ‐ General Meeting

Results of Crude Oil Marketing Name Analysis

Gordon Schremp

California Energy Commission

September 9, 2010 p

OverviewOverview

• Objectives & Backgroundj g

• Information Resources

• Nomenclature

• Marketable Names ‐ Overview

• Names & Fields ‐ Results

• 2006 Base Line – Countries & Marketable Names

• Analytical Limitations

9/9/2010 2

Objective & Background

• Can marketable crude oil names be matched to their respective field source or sources?

• If so, would potentially enable carbon intensity analysis

• Initial list of “names” provided to the Air Resources Board by th W t St t P t l A i ti (WSPA)the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA)

• California Energy Commission staff used this list as starting pointp

• Augmented with other proprietary information resources– International Crude Oil Handbook (ICOM)

– Energy Information Administration list of crude oil names (EIA‐856)

– Journal of Commerce – Petroleum Import Exports Reporting System

– Crude Information Management System from PetroTech Intel

9/9/2010 3

Information Resources ‐ ICOMInformation Resources ICOM

• Annual proprietary publicationp p y p

• Detailed descriptions– Primary field name(s) & type

– Average volumes by name for year

• Some crude oil names imported to California are not listed

• 2006 & 2009 handbooks were used as part of research

• http://www.energyintel.com/DataHomePage.asp?publication_id=115&ss=e

9/9/2010 4

Information Resources – EIA856

Version No.: 20010.01

Page of

Form Approved

MONTHLY FOREIGN CRUDE OIL ACQUISITION REPORTFORM EIA-856

OMB Number: 1905-0174 Expiration Date: 12/31/2012

EIA ID NUMBER:

Report Period:Date submitted:

(d) (e) (f) (h) (I) (k) (m) (n) (o) (p)P t D t f C A i i Oth L d d

PART III. TRANSACTIONS

(l)(c) (j)V l T

(g)(a) (b) (q)Port Date of Con- Acquisi- Other Landed

Date of of Landing tract/Point tion Price Cost Cost DaysCrude Type Gravity Loading Desti- (YYMM) Code ($/BBLs) ($/BBL) ($/BBL) Credit N

(YYMMDD) nation

Volume

Loading(BBLs)

Acquired Trans-

Country/ Port

ber actionNum- Trans- Crude Code ofaction

VesselType of Name of Vendor

• Companies report foreign crude oil purchases – no domestic

• Includes “country crude code” designations nearly 650• Includes country crude code designations – nearly 650– Matched codes to marketable names list

• Data not available for California

9/9/2010 5

Information Resources ‐Information Resources

• Proprietary data base of waterborne foreign imports p y g p

• Information used to identify which marketable crude oils were imported to California during period 2006 through 2009– Names not consistently reported – not able to quantify annual

volumes by each marketable name

• California Energy Commission monthly import/export form does not require the designation of “marketable name” for crude oil imports, only source country and port– Multiple marketable names can originate from same port– Multiple marketable names can originate from same port

• http://www.piers.com

9/9/2010 6

Information Resources ‐

• Proprietary data base of crude oil and condensates

• Nearly 3,000 names in their system

• Resource used to identify source fields for marketable names

• Other informationT f fi ld– Type of field

• Gas/condensate

• Onshore

• Offshore• Offshore

– Production volumes, if unavailable from ICOM

– Loading port

f– Country of origin

– Initial start of production

• http://www.petrotechintel.com/pti/crudelist.htmlp // p /p /

9/9/2010 7

Nomenclature – Crude OilNomenclature Crude Oil

• Crude oil is sold by producers according to primary qualitiesD it (API it )– Density (API gravity)

• “Light” oil greater than 26 API

• “Heavy” oil lower than 26 API

lf ( h )– Sulfur content (weight percent)• “Sweet” or low sulfur less than 0.5 %

• “Intermediate” between 0.5 & 1.0 %

• “Sour” or high sulfur greater than 1.0 %

– Distillation properties• Vary by crude oil

• Impact portion that can be converted to gasoline and diesel fuel

• Crude oils of identical API gravity can have significantly different distillation properties

9/9/2010 8

Nomenclature – Crude Oil

• Crude oil “names” usually refer to a primary source field– General quality can be basis for nameq y

• Arab Light from Saudi Arabia

– Loading source also used – platform or pipeline

• Crude oil “fields” are geological structures that are normally• Crude oil fields are geological structures that are normally subsets of Basins or Formations– May also be part of geographical boundary that designates an

l tiexploration area• Block

• Oil Mining Lease

• Oil Prospecting Lease• Oil Prospecting Lease

• Production License

9/9/2010 9

Marketable Names ‐ Overview

• Selected all marketable crude oil names from ICOM– Includes all names from 2006 and 2009 lists

• Included any crude oil names that appeared as foreign imports in the PIERS data baseimports in the PIERS data base– Reporting of crude oil name inconsistent

– May mean that a couple of names were not included on complete list

d l d d h l• Condensates are included in the list– Processed by refiners

– Usually as a blend with other crude oil typesy yp

• Nearly all marketable crude oil names have been matched to primary & tertiary fields

9/9/2010 10

Marketable Names ‐ OverviewMarketable Names Overview

• Different crude oil names come and gog– Depletion of older fields

– Emergence of new exploration & development effort

S d il t th hil th fi ld• Some crude oil names stay the same, while the field contribution shifts– Producers strive to maintain property quality over time by varying

relative contribution of specific fields and use of condensates

• Majority of marketable names represent crude oil sourced from multiple fields located onshorefrom multiple fields located onshore– “Forties” from the United Kingdom sourced from 70 fields

9/9/2010 11

Marketable Names – Regional Shift

Source: The Oil Drum

9/9/2010 12

Source: The Oil Drum

Marketable Names – Global Shift

9/9/2010 13

60%

2006Marketable Names – Source Type

46.9%48.1%50%

36.6%33.7%

40%

Count

16 2%20%

30%

Volume‐Weighted

11.4%

5.1%

16.2%

10%

2.0%

0%

Onshore Offshore Combination CondensateSources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data

9/9/2010 14

Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data

70%


48 8%

58.1%

50%

60%

36.4%

48.8%

40%

50%

30.1%

20%

30%Count

Volume‐Weighted

7.8%6.9%

9.4%10%

20%

2.3%

0%

Onshore Offshore Combination Condensate


9/9/2010 15


95 2% 94 1%100%

Marketable Names – Field Concentration

86.1%82.2%

95.2% 94.1%

80%

90%

Adj ti f

60%

70%

Count

Adjusting for production volume diminishes “single field” contribution

30%

40%

50%Count

Volume‐Weighted

13.9%17.8%

4 8% 5 9%10%

20%

30%

4.8% 5.9%

0%

2006 Single 2006 Multiple 2009 Single 2009 Multiple


9/9/2010 16


55

60All Names ‐Multiple Fields Distribution55

50

37

30

40

f Instances

20

30

Num

ber o

f

15

1210

86

35

35

10

N

31

21 1

31 1 1

21

02 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 19 20 21 34 70

Number of FieldsSources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data Number of Fields

9/9/2010 17


Marketable Names – Source Acronyms

Comb-Multi Offshore & onshore crude oil sourced from multiple fields.Con CondensateOff‐MMN Offshore crude oil sourced from multiple marketable names.Off‐Multi Offshore crude oil sourced from multiple fields.Off‐Single Offshore crude oil sourced from a single field.On-MCDSB Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple conventional, bitumen fields, upgraded synthetic & diluent.On‐MDB Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields & blended with diluent.On-MDSB Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields, upgraded & blended with diluent.p , pgOn-MS Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields & upgraded to synthetic crude.On-MSR Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields, upgraded to synthetic crude & blended with residual fuel oilOn‐Multi Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple fields.On‐Single Onshore crude oil sourced from a single field.

Offshore sources ‐ no upgraded crude oilConsists wholly or partially of crude oil processed at an upgrading facilityOnshore sources ‐ no upgraded crude oil


Should note that “conventional” onshore and offshore sources can involve various forms of enhanced oil recovery

9/9/2010 18


0.6%3.4% 0.0%

Condensate


5.1% CondensateOff‐MMNOff‐Multi

175 Names935 Fields

28.6%Off‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSB

36.6%On MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSBO MS

0 0%

4.0%

0.0%On‐MSOn‐MSROn‐Multi

9.7%11.4%

0.0%

0.6%

0.0%On‐SingleUnknown

Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM CIMS & PIERS Data

9/9/2010 19

Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM, CIMS & PIERS Data

0 5%0.0%

Condensate


6.9%0.5%

4.1% CondensateOff‐MMNOff‐Multi

217 Names1,018 Fields

26.3%Off‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSB

35.9%

On MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSBO MS

0.9%

3.7%

0.5% On‐MSOn‐MSROn‐Multi

12.4%

7.8%

0.5%

0.5% On‐SingleUnknown


9/9/2010 20


0 %3.6% 0.4%

All Marketable Names – Source Type

7.1%0.4% Condensate

Off‐MMNOff‐Multi

252 Names1,110 Fields

24.2% Off‐SingleComb‐MultiOn MCDSB

35.3%

0 4%

On‐MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSB

0.8%0.8%

4.4%0.4%

On‐MSOn‐MSROn‐Multi

13.9%

8.3%0.4%

On MultiOn‐SingleUnknown


9/9/2010 21


2.3%

2006Marketable Names – Source Country

17.7%

2.3%Africa

Canada46 Countries

25.7%Europe

Far East

3.4%15.4%

Far East

Former Soviet Union

15.4%

UnionLatin America

Middle East

16.6%

3.4%United States


9/9/2010 22


2009Marketable Names – Source Country

16 1%

4.1%Africa

Canada47 Countries

25.8%16.1%

Europe

Far East

5.1%14.7%

Far East

Former Soviet Union

11.1%6 5%

UnionLatin America

Middle East

16.6%

6.5%

United States


9/9/2010 23


2.3%

All Marketable Names – Source Country

17.7%

Africa

Canada49 Countries

25.7%Europe

Far East

3.4%15.4%

Far East

Former Soviet Union

15.4%

Latin America

Middle East

16.6%

3.4%United States


9/9/2010 24


2006 Base Line – Country & Names2006 Base Line Country & Names

• California crude oil imports sourced from 22 countriesp

• Consisted of 36 marketable crude oil names

• Increased to 45 marketable names by 2009

• CEC would need to survey companies to accurately determine import volumes by marketable name for 2006 and subsequent years – confidential PIIRA requestsubsequent years confidential PIIRA request

9/9/2010 25

California Marketable Names

Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 Country 2006 2007 2008 2009Algeria 1 1 1 1 Mexico 2 1 2 1Angola 3 5 6 5 Neutral Zone* 1 1 1Argentina 1 1 1 3 Nigeria 1 2 1g gAustralia 2 1 Norway 1 1 1Azerbaijan 1 1 Oman 1 1 1 1Brazil 2 3 5 5 Peru 1 1 1 1Cameroon 1 1 Russia 2Chad 1 1 1 1 Saudi Arabia 3 3 3 3Chad 1 1 1 1 Saudi Arabia 3 3 3 3Canada 1 2 4 4 Thailand 1Columbia 3 3 4 4 Trinidad & Tobago 1 1Ecuador 2 2 2 2 UAE ‐ Abu Dhabi 1 1 1Equatorial Guinea 1 Venezuela 6 4 3 6I d i 1 1 Vi 1Indonesia 1 1 Vietnam 1Iraq 1 1 1 1 Yemen 1 1

Malaysia 1 Totals 36 40 41 45* Kuwait Portion

Sources: CEC Analysis of PIERS Data

Between 22 & 28 additional marketable crude oils were imported from countries not included in the original 2006 Base Line

9/9/2010 26

Sources: CEC Analysis of PIERS Data

2006 CA Marketable Names – Source TypeCalifornia

2.8% 0.0%

5.6%

0.0%

CondensateOff‐MMNOff Multi

36 Names – Larger portion from onshore sources

27.8%

Off‐MultiOff‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSB

sources

2 8%

38.9% On‐MDBOn‐MDSBOn‐MSO S

5.1%0.6%

3.4% 0.0%

CondensateOff‐MMNOff M lti

Global

2.8%

11.1%

0 0%8.3%

On‐MSROn‐MultiOn‐SingleUnknown

36.6%

28.6%

Off‐MultiOff‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSBOn‐MS 0.0%

2.8%0.0%0.0%Unknown


9.7%11.4%

0.0%

0.6%

0.0%

4.0%

0.0% On‐MSROn‐MultiOn‐SingleUnknown

9/9/2010 27


Analytical Limitationsy

• Nearly all marketable crude oil names have been matched to primary & tertiary fieldsprimary & tertiary fields

• Less than 18 percent of marketable names associated with a single field source (5 percent on a volume‐weighted basis)– Could actually be lower if all satellite fields could be identified

• Ability to further analyze other attributes of a particular marketable name with multiple field sources is difficult sincemarketable name with multiple field sources is difficult since the relative contribution of the various fields is not normally disclosed & production volumes vary from year‐to‐year– Depth of field

– Water to oil ratio

– Flaring & venting

9/9/2010 28

Additional Q&A

Golden Gate Bridge from Fort Point National Historic Site CA September 5 2010

9/9/2010 29

Golden Gate Bridge from Fort Point National Historic Site, CA – September 5, 2010

Documents

Crude Oil Screening General Meeting · PDF fileCrude Oil Screening ‐General Meeting Results of Crude Oil Marketing Name Analysis Gordon Schremp California Energy Commission September