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illinois oil and Gas Associat ion www.ioga.com OIL SHOCKS AND IT’S EFFECT ON THE GLOBAL AND INDIAN ECONOMY

Crude Oil ( Oil Shocks )

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ITM EEC Batch 13B Macroeconomics Presentation By Amol Patkar Pankaj Bathija Siddharth Kulkarni Ajit Mathews Ashwin Saroday Amol Shinde

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Page 1: Crude Oil ( Oil Shocks )

illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

OIL SHOCKSAND IT’S EFFECT ON THE

GLOBAL AND INDIAN ECONOMY

Page 2: Crude Oil ( Oil Shocks )

illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Ashwin V Saroday(64)

Amol Patkar(60)

Amol Shinde(61)

Siddharth Kulkarni(101)

Ajit Mathews(87)

Pankaj Bathija

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Contents Of The Presentation

What is crude? Biotic & Abiotic theory How is Crude processed Products from Crude Oil in our day to day life History of commercial oil

production Classification of crude

Global oil reserves Hubert's peak oil theory Global oil production in

barrels Oil reserves in India Oil production in India Oil Refineries in India Oil consumption in India

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Contents Of The Presentation

1973 Oil Shock 1979 Oil Shock 1980 Oil price fall Political Conspiracy for Oil Effect of Oil Price Hike On

The Global Economy

Effect of Oil Price Hike On The Indian Economy

Oil Alternatives used worldwide

Oil Alternatives used in India

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wikipedia

What is crude oil ?

Unprocessed oil Petroleum= Petra (Rock) + Oleum (Oil) (Latin) Theory of Crude Oil Origin

Fossil / Biotic Theory

The generally-accepted origin of crude oil is from plant and animal remains up to 3 billion years ago, but predominantly from 100 to 600 million years ago

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

'Special Edition on The Future of Petroleum' in Energy World,

British Institute of Petroleum, London, June 1996, p. 16-18.

What is crude oil ?..contd..

Abyssal, Abiotic, Theory-Thomas Gold & K. Nikolai This hypothesis suggests that crude oil is derived from methane from the

earth's interior and established that petroleum is a primordial material erupted from great depth.

Petroleum abundances and its availability depends upon technological development and exploration competence.

The theory is supported by the discovery of the eleven major and one giant oil and gas fields in the Dnieper-Donets Basin in 1994

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

How oil is produced

Prospecting for oil- Core sampling Seismic testing

Drilling for oil Wildcat well Dry hole (Unsuccessful) Successful hole Natural lift Artificial lift

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com© 1998-2008 HowStuffWorks, Inc.

The refining process

Crude oil has a mixture of all sorts of hydrocarbons

Oil refining separates everything into useful substances.

Fractional distillation. You basically heat crude oil up, let

it vaporize and then condense the vapor.

Purification The fractions are treated to remove

impurities Conversion Some of the fractions are

chemically treated to make others

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Indian Oil Corporation..web site

Products obtained by refining Crude oil Petrol Diesel Jet fuel Furnace oil Automotive lubricating

oils Automotive greases Industrial lubricating oil Industrial greases

Petro chemicals Bitumen Paraffin wax Mineral turpentine oil Benzene Toluene Rail road greases Rail road oils Etc………………….

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Oil in our daily life……

Clothing and Textiles Everything polyester:

blouses, pants, pajamas etc.

Beauty products Cologne Hair brushes Lipstick Permanent wave curlers Perfume

Illinois Oil and Gas Association, www.ioga.com

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Oil in our daily life…….

Face masks Skin cleanser Deodorants Moisturizing cream Soap holder Disposable razors Leather conditioner Mouthwash Sunglasses

Facial toner Lens cleanser Nail polish Sunscreen Tooth brushes Toothpaste tubes Synthetic wigs Bubble bath Soap capsules

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Illinois Oil and Gas Association, www.ioga.com

Oil in our daily life…….

Automotive Antifreeze Car battery case Coolant Motor oil Tyres Loud speakers Bearing grease Sports car bodies Traffic cones

Car paints Brake fluid Dashboards Windshield wipers Visors Car sound insulation Oil filters Car seats Convertible tops Fan belts

Page 13: Crude Oil ( Oil Shocks )

illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Illinois Oil and Gas Association, www.ioga.com

Oil in our daily life…….

Acrylic toys Baby oil Laundry basket Baby aspirin Bath soap Mittens Pacifiers Baby blanket

Rattles Baby bottles Disposable diapers Baby shoes Teething rings Dolls Stuffed animals Baby lotion Bibs

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

History of Commercial Oil production 1854 The invention of the kerosene lamp creates

intense demand for oil.

August 27, 1859

Edwin L. Drake drilled the first successful oil well 69 feet deep near Titusville in northwestern Pennsylvania. USA.

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1860

World oil production reaches 500,000 barrels annually

1874

Oil production soars to 20 million barrels annually 1879

First oil well drilled in California

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1887

First oil well drilled in Texas

As production boomed, prices fell and oil industry profits

declined 1882

John D. Rockefeller devised a solution to the problem of unbridled competition in the oil fields: the Standard Oil trust Through its control of refining, Standard Oil was temporarily able to control the price of oil.

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1920

Oil production reached 450 million barrels - prompting fear that the nation was about to run out of oil. US government officials predicted that the nation's oil reserves would last just ten years.

Until the 1910s USA produced 60 to 70% of the global oil supply

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

1902

Oil discovered in Mexico 1908

Oil discovered in Iran 1913

Oil discovered in Venezuela 1927

Oil discovered in Iraq

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

1919

Britain controls 50% of the world’s proven oil reserves 1924

Discovery of enormous new oil fields in Texas, Oklahoma, and California.

1931

Crude oil sells for 10 cents a barrel

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

1930s

Britain gains control over Iran's oil fields and the United States discovers oil reserves in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

1960

Iran, Venezuela, and Arab oil producers banded together in to negotiate for higher oil prices (Beginning of OPEC)

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US oil Facts

US is the worlds oldest oil producer.

US consumes 25% of the Oil produced in the world.

US has produced more oil , cumulatively, than the current reserves of any other country but Saudi Arabia

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wikipedia

Classification of Crude

On the basis of the origin- West Texas, Brent, Dubai, Minas

On the basis of composition- Sweet crude oil, Sour crude oil, Light crude Heavy crude

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www.indexmundi.com

Global Oil Reserves in barrels

The United States government declared Alberta's oil sands to be 'proven oil reserves.' Consequently, the U.S. upgraded its global oil estimates for Canada from five billions to 175 billion barrels. Only Saudi Arabia has more oil.

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www.indexmundi.com

Global Oil Reserves %

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wikipedia

Hubert's peak oil theory

M. King Hubert proposed in 1956 that the fossil fuel production in any area over time would follow a bell shaped curve from the time of discovery to depletion

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www.indexmundi.com

Global Oil Production in barrels

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www.indexmundi.com

World Oil Consumption

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

www.indexmundi.com

Oil reserves in India

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

www.indexmundi.com

Oil production in India

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

wikipedia

Oil refineries in India & Companies Haldia Refinery (IOC)

116,000 bbl/d (18,400 m³/d) Panipat Refinery (IOC),

240,000 bbl/d (38,000 m³/d) Digboi Refinery (IOC),

13,000 bbl/d (2,100 m³/d) Gujarat Refinery (IOC),

170,000 bbl/d (27,000 m³/d) Barauni Refinery (IOC),

116,000 bbl/d (18,400 m³/d) Guwahati Refinery (IOC),

20,000 bbl/d (3,200 m³/d)

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

wikipedia

Oil refineries in India & Companies Mathura Refinery (IOC),

156,000 bbl/d (24,800 m³/d) Bongaigaon Refinery (IOC),

48,000 bbl/d (7,600 m³/d) Manali Refinery (IOC),

185,000 bbl/d (29,400 m³/d) Jamnagar Refinery (Reliance

Petroleum), 660,000 bbl/d (105,000 m³/d)

Mumbai Refinery (HPCL), 107,000 bbl/d (17,000 m³/d)

Visakhapatnam Refinery (HPCL), 150,000 bbl/d (24,000 m³/d)

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wikipedia

Oil refineries in India & Companies Mumbai Refinery Mahaul

(BPCL), 135,000 bbl/d (21,500 m³/d)

Nagapattnam Refinery (CPCL), 20,000 bbl/d (3,200 m³/d)

Kochi Refinery (Kochi Refineries Ltd), 172,000 bbl/d (27,300 m³/d)

Numaligarh Refinery Limited (NRL), 58,000 bbl/d (9,200 m³/d)

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wikipedia

Oil refineries in India & Companies Mangalore Refinery (MRPL),

190,000 bbl/d (30,000 m³/d) Tatipaka Refinery (ONGC),

1,600 bbl/d (250 m³/d) Essar Refinery (Essar), 10.5

MTPA Reliance Petroleum Ltd.

(Second Refinery - Under Construction), Jamnagar, 580,000 bbl/d (92,000 m³/d

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www.indexmundi.com

Oil consumption India

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

wikipedia

The Seven sisters

The Seven Sisters consisted of three companies formed by the break up by the U.S. Government of Standard Oil, along with four other major oil companies.

Standard Oil of New Jersey Standard Oil Co. of New York ("Socony"). Standard Oil Co. of California ("Socal"). Royal Dutch Shell (Dutch) Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) (British). Gulf Oil. Texaco.

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wikipedia

The Seven Sisters

With their dominance of oil production, refinement and distribution, they were able to take advantage of the rapidly increasing demand for oil and turn immense profits.

Being well organized and able to negotiate as a cartel, the Seven Sisters were able to have their way with most Third World oil producers.

It was only when the Arab states began to gain control over oil prices and production, mainly through the formation of OPEC, beginning in 1960 and really gaining power by the 1970s, that the Seven Sisters' influence declined.

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wikipedia

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Started in 1960

It is a group of twelve states made up of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,Indonesia, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and Ecuador.

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wikipedia

Yom Kippur War

The Yom Kippur War, Ramadan War or October War The war began with a surprise joint attack by Egypt and Syria on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Egypt and Syria crossed the cease-fire lines in the Sinai and Golan Heights, respectively, which had been captured by Israel in 1967 during the Six-Day War.

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wikipediawikipedia

First oil crisis 1973

October 17 1973 The 1973 oil crisis began, when the members of Organization of

Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced, as a result of the ongoing Yom Kippur War, that they would no longer ship oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria, Egypt, and Iraq (the United States, its allies in Western Europe, and Japan).

At the same time, OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price-setting mechanism for oil in order to raise world oil prices, after the failure of negotiations with the "Seven Sisters" earlier in the month. Because of the dependence of the industrialized world on crude oil and the predominant role of OPEC as a global supplier, these price increases were dramatically inflationary to the economies of the targeted countries, while at the same time suppressed economic activity in these countries.

Yom Kippur war

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wikipedia

The New Seven Sisters

The Financial Times identified the "New Seven Sisters": the most influential and mainly state-owned national oil and gas companies from countries outside the OECD.

Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia) JSC Gazprom (Russia) CNPC (China) NIOC (Iran) PDVSA (Venezuela) Petrobras (Brazil) Petronas (Malaysia)

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

wikipedia

Oil Crisis 1979 The 1979 (or second) oil crisis occurred in the wake of the

Iranian Revolution The Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled his country in 1979, allowing Ayatollah Khomeini to gain control. The protests shattered the Iranian oil sector. While the new regime resumed oil exports, it was inconsistent and at a lower volume, forcing prices to go up.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations, increased production to offset the decline, and the overall loss in production was about 4 percent. However, a widespread panic resulted, driving the price far higher than would be expected under normal circumstances.

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wikipedia

Fall in prices 1980

In 1980, following the Iraqi invasion of Iran, oil production in Iran nearly stopped, and Iraq's oil production was severely cut as well.

After 1980, oil prices began a six-year decline that culminated with a 46 percent price drop in 1986. This was due to reduced demand and over-production, and caused OPEC to lose its unity. Oil exporters such as Mexico, Nigeria, and Venezuela expanded. The US and Europe got more oil from Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea.

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wikipedia

Oil crisis 1990

The 1990 (or third) energy crisis was milder and more brief than the two previous oil crises (1973 and 1979). It lasted only six months and occurred as a result of the first Gulf War. As Saddam Hussein retreated, the oil fields of Kuwait were set on fire, causing damage that reduced the oil output until repairs could be performed. OAPEC decided that since the oil production in the Kuwait was falling, they would increase their oil supply and stabilize the oil market.

Oil hit a then-record of $50.50 per barrel during this crisis.

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wikipedia

Oil price fluctuation 1970 to 2006

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illinois oil and Gas Association www.ioga.com

Published on Monday, October 29, 2001 in the Mirror/UK ©2002 Cliff

Pearson

Political Conspiracy theory

1953 Coup in Iran orchestrated by CIA

1972 Coup in Iraq orchestrated by CIA

1990 Saddam attacks Kuwait

1991 Bush attacks Iraq

American war in Afghanistan

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[email protected]

Oil price hike affecting global economy Oil price increase leads to a transfer of Income from Oil

Importing countries to Oil exporting countries.

For net oil exporting countries a price increase directly increases national income through higher export earnings.

Higher oil prices lead to inflation ( Supply shock inflation)

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Oil price hike, effects on Global economy Increased input costs Oil price increase for Net oil importing countries

causes a deterioration in the balance of payments. Currency value of Net oil importing countries fall

causing imports to be more expensive and exports less valuable causing a drop in real national income.

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Copyright © 2007, The Hindu Business Line.

Oil price hike, effects on Global economy Oil price hike affecting Indian oil companies. The increase in crude oil prices has caused

increase in inflation ( current inflation rate 11.98%)

Oil price increase causes a deterioration in the balance of payments for India.

Rupee value falls causing imports to be more expensive and exports less valuable causing a drop in real national income.

Increase in prices of all items.

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Oil Alternatives (World)

Fuel cells Solar energy Nuclear energy Wind power Tides Ethanol blending in petrol Tar sand Oil shale

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wikipedia

Renewable energy World

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http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents

Oil conservation in India

1ST Oil Conservation Week organized in January,1991, throughout the country to enlarge the base of mass awareness on oil conservation.

Inter fuel substitution CNG and LPG is being used as a fuel in the transport sector. The

advantage is that it is safe and a clean burning fuel, besides being an environment friendly fuel

Ethanol blending New Delhi, The five per cent blending of ethanol with petrol has been

made mandatory across the country expect in J&K, the North East and Island Territories wef. Oct. 10 2007

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs also gave its approval to make 10 per cent blending optional from October 2007 and mandatory from October 2008 a purchase price of Rs 21.50 per liter ex-factory for supply of ethanol was approved which can be implemented all over the country for the next three years.

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wikipedia

Alternative sources of energy in India Nuclear power

India is expected to have 20 GW of nuclear capacity by 2020, though we currently stand as the 9th in the world in terms of nuclear capacity.

Currently India has seventeen nuclear power reactors which produce 4,120.00 MW

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wikipedia

Indo US Nuclear deal

Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement is the name commonly attributed to a bilateral agreement on nuclear cooperation between the United States of America and India.

under which India agreed to separate its civil and military nuclear facilities and place its civil facilities under IAEA safeguards and, in exchange, the United States agreed to work toward full civil nuclear cooperation with India.

Economic considerations of the Indo US deal It is India's stated objective to increase the production of nuclear power

generation from its present capacity of 4,120 MWe to 20,000 MWe in the next decade

Financially, the U.S. also expects that such a deal could spur India's economic growth and bring in $150 billion in the next decade for nuclear power plants, of which the US wants a share.

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Alternative sources of energy in India Solar Energy With about 200 clear sunny days in a year. Theoretical, considering

only 10% efficiency of Photo Voltaic modules, solar power reception, just on its land area, is far more than current total energy consumption.

The amount of solar energy produced in India is merely 0.5 % compared to other energy resources. The Grid-interactive solar power as on Jun, 2007 was merely 2.12 MW

Solar power is currently prohibitive due to high initial costs of deployment

The Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) provides revolving fund to financing and leasing companies offering affordable credit for the purchase of PV systems.

An Expert Committee constituted by the Planning Commission has prepared an Integrated Energy Policy which envisions a 10 million square meter solar collector area, to be set up by 2022,

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wikipedia

Alternative sources of energy in India Wind power in India The development of wind power

in India began in the 1990s, Although a relative newcomer India is the country with the Fourth largest installed wind power capacity in the world, and the wind energy leader in the developing world.

As of September 2007 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 7,660.2 MW,

( Germany (20,621 MW), Spain (11,615 MW), and the USA (11,603 MW) are ahead of India)

Tamil Nadu 3457.5 MW

Maharashtra 1484.9 MW

Karnataka 849.4 MW

Rajasthan 469.9 MW

Gujarat 667.1 MW

Andhra Pradesh 121.8 MW

Madhya Pradesh 57.8 MW

Kerala 2 MW

West Bengal 1.6 MW

other states 1.6 MW

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http://www.buyusa.gov/kern/indiaenergyreport.html

Alternative sources of energy in India Biomass Energy

In a country like India, biomass holds considerable promise as 540 million tons of crop and plantation residues are produced every year, a large portion of which is either wasted, or used inefficiently.

Conservative estimates indicate 17,000 MW of distributed power could be generated.

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http://www.buyusa.gov/kern/indiaenergyreport.html

Alternative sources of energy in India Hydro Projects:

With numerous rivers and their tributaries in the country, the small hydro sector presents an excellent energy opportunity with an estimated potential of 15,000 MW. About 10 percent of this has been exploited so far.

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http://www.buyusa.gov/kern/indiaenergyreport.html

Alternative sources of energy in India Energy from Wastes:

Good potential exists for generating approx. 15,000 MW of power from urban and municipal wastes and approx. 100 MW from industrial wastes in India.

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wikipedia

Hybrid Cars in India

Honda

Honda has launched Honda Civic in a hybrid avatar. Mahindra & Mahindra

currently test driving the hybrid variant of the Scorpio. It will be launched early next year. The hybrid version will run on electricity and would have a back-up petrol engine.

Toyota

Prius, the most popular hybrid car of Toyota is also in the pipeline of being in India.