B A F T
Forecast Demand on Automobiles to increase sales for automo9ve company
Anita, Louie Fanny, Paul
I. Business Problem
Client: an automo3ve company like Suzuki Business benet:
Increase automobile sales Improve marke3ng eciency
Set up suitable marke3ng strategy among regions and seasons
Challenges: Consumer preference for brands is not considered (hard to
predict) Opportunity: Design a beDer marke3ng strategy to decrease cost and increase sales
II. Forecas3ng Goal
Goal: Forecast the demand on automobile in 2015. Analysis:
Prospec3ve: predict future trend and analyze seasonal paDerns
The forecasts will be used to set marke3ng strategies and promo3onal plans in 2015
Forecast horizon: 1 year (12 months)
1. Number of automobile Forecast trend for long-term strategy Source: Ministry of Transporta3on and Communica3ons R.O.C 2000:12- 2014:08 (165 obs.) Four largest ci3es: New Taipei, Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung Upward trend
III. Data Descrip3on (1/2)
III. Data Descrip3on (2/2)
2. Number of new automobile registra3on Analyze seasonality for short-term strategy 2012:01~2014:11 (35 obs.) Four largest ci3es: New Taipei, Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung Seasonality: 6 months
Low in February and August
Peak in January and July!
1. Number of automobile 1) Double Exponen3al 2) Linear regression 3) Nave
2. Number of new automobile registra3on 1) Linear regression 2) Holt-Winter 3) Seasonal Nave
Method: Double Exponen3al
The number of automobile is predicted to increase!
V. Forecasts and Evalua3on (1/2) - Number of automobile
Holt-Winter does not capture highs and lows well!
Regression has the 2nd lowest RMSE and captures the seasonality well!
Highest in January & July!
V. Forecasts and Evalua3on (2/2) - Number of new automobile registra3on
VI. Others: Opportunity for motorcycle sales
Data: number of motorcycle (2000:12- 2014:08) The amount of motorcycle dropped sharply in July 2013 The reduc3on is one-3me event due to a policy that
encourage old motorcycle to re3re before October 2013 to waive taxes
Opportunity for motorcycle sales!
1. Increase automobile produc3on 2. Marke3ng strategies for automobile: Same marke3ng strategies on all regions Heavy promo3on and adver3sement on January
(near Chinese New Year) and July (students graduate)
3. Opportunity for motorcycle sales to increase Promo3on on motorcycles
(e.g. discount on purchasing automobile with motorcycle)