M. L. Spaulding1, A. Grilli1, C. Damon2, T. Crean3, G. Fugate4, B. A. Oakley5, and P. Stempel6

1 Ocean Engineering, University of RI, Narragansett, RI2 Environmental Data Center, University of RI, Kingston, RI3 Coastal Resources Center, University of RI, Narragansett, RI; 4 Coastal Resources Management Council, Wakefield, RI5 Eastern Connecticut State University, Willimantic, CT6 Department of Marine Affairs, University of RI, Kingston, RI

Presenter: Christopher Damon, URI Environmental Data Center cdamon@uri.edu

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Areas of Study

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

Storm Return Period Sea Level Rise Scenarios (ft)Nuisance Events

1-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 72-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 73-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 75-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 710-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7

Major Events25-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 750-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7100-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7500-Year 0

Historic EventsHurricane of 1938 0Hurricane Carol (1954) 0Hurricane Bob (1991) 0Superstorm Sandy (2012) 0

Source: STORMTOOLs* All available to download or as online maps

STORMTOOLS2014-2015

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

RI CRMC Policy and Regulations aka“Red Book” • Section 145 “Climate change and Sea Level

Rise”

The Council will:• Proactively plan for and integrate climate

change and SLR scenarios into its programs.

The Council recommends:• STORMTOOLS maps to evaluate inundation

from storm surge and SLR.

STORMTOOLS Impact

Adopted as official surge and SLR projections for R.I.

Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI - 2016

Quantitative means of assessing community risk to structures and infrastructure accounting for storm surge, waves, SLR, and shoreline change.

GOAL:

Methods:• Coupled ADCIRC/STWAVE

modeling for water levels/waves

• Apply damage curves to compute structural losses

• 100yr event with 0’, 2’, 7’ SLR

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS)Assess flood risks to vulnerable populations, resources and infrastructure

Reduce risk and promote coastal resiliency

Source: ACOE NACCS Main Report

1,050 Synthetic Tropical Storms100 Historic Extratropical Storms

Source: ACOE ERDC

Hurricane Sandy Impacts

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

Source: STORMTOOLs

Used 95% C.I. values for conservative projections

CERI Building Blocks:Water Level and Waves

Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI Building Blocks:SLR &Planning Horizons

Sea level rise prediction curves for Newport, RI. Sea Level Change Curve Calculator, US Army Corps of Engineers: http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI Building Blocks:Shoreline Change

Source: B. Oakley

Temporal Scales:• Event• Long-Term

Coastal Environmental Risk Index E-911 Housing Stock

Source: ACOE

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Inundation Damage,Structure

Source: NACCS Depth Damage Summary

5A – Single, No Basement 6B – Double, Basement 7A – Elevated, Open Pile

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario

Residential LossesDamage > 50%

53%Lost to Erosion

0%Below MSL

0%

Source: CERI

Sea Level Rise = 0n = 987

* Can convert damage to $$ with tax/parcel records

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario

Residential LossesDamage > 50%

58%Lost to Erosion

4%Below MSL

29%

Source: CERI

Sea Level Rise = 7n = 1,322

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Visualization Alternatives

Source: CERI

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario

Residential LossesDamage > 50%

42%Lost to Erosion

0%Below MSL

5%

Source: CERI

Sea Level Rise = 7n = 5,304

* Lower waves than coast but higher surge

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Path Forward

FEMA Incentives

Risk Transparency

Improved Resiliency

Land Evidence Record

Federal State Local

Lower Insurance Premiums

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Data Access / OutreachOnline Mapping

Source: P. Stempel

Coastal Environmental Risk Index References

Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI) and STORMTOOLSSpaulding, M. L., T. Isaji, C. Damon, and G. Fugate, 2015. STORMTOOLS: Storm water levels vs return period for RI based on NACCS ADCIRC-STWAVE Model Predictions. Technical Report, 14pp. https://tinyurl.com/gsmq4ym.

Spaulding, M. L., A. Grilli, C. Damon, T. Crean, G. Fugate, B. A. Oakley, and P. StempelSTORMTOOLS: Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI), 2016. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 54; doi:10.3390/jmse4030054.

Small, C., Blanpied, T., Kauffman, A., O’Neil, C., Proulx, N., Rajacich, M., Simpson, H., White, J., Baxter, C., Spaulding, M.L., and C. Swanson, 2016. Assessment of damage from storm surge and sea level rise along Matunuck Beach Road and surrounding communities. 2016. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 67; doi:10.3390/jmse4040067.

Spaulding, M., A. Grilli, C. Damon, G. Fugate, B. A. Oakley, T. Isaji, and L. Schambach, 2016.Application of state of art modeling techniques to predict flooding and waves for an exposed coastal area Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 10; doi:10.3390/jmse5010010.

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS)Cialone, M., et al, 2015. North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) Coastal Storm Model Simulations: Waves and Water Levels, US Army Corp of Engineers, Engineering Research and Development Center, January 2015. http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/CompStudy.aspx

STORMTOOLs / CERI Online Mapping Portalhttp://www.beachsamp.org

Additional Slides

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Areas of Study

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

Credit: T. Crean

Storm Events

Middlebridge, RI: Water Level + 3’

Description

Return Period: Episodic

Driver(s): Weather

Duration: Hours to Days

Coping Strategy: Wait

Sea Level RiseDescription

Return Period: Daily

Driver(s): Tides

Duration: Hours

Coping Strategy: New Normal

Inundation Mapping

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

Modeled Analysis

Single value applied across study area

Modeled output varies across study areaMay include waves, erosion, run-up, currents etc.SLOSH, ADCIRC, STWAVE, SWAN etc.

“Bathtub” Analysis

Highlights areas that mayhave problems

Need expert input to be sure

Inundation Mapping

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Community Exposure2011-2012

Coastal Environmental Risk Index STORMTOOLS2014-2015

Data

Maps

Modeling/Analysis Tools

Simplified Surge ModelingAccount for spatial variation in surge

Develop quick, accurate method of determining water levels including SLR

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Water Level Scaling

Newport

Providence

Tested: NOS water levels; NHC SLOSH models; NACCS

Validation: predictions +/- 10% of recorded water levels

Coastal Environmental Risk Index FEMA Flood Zones

Source: FEMA RiskMAP

Coastal Environmental Risk Index BFE Comparison

Source: CERISource: FEMA

Differences likely due to:FEMA methods and assumptions:− Non-coupled surge/wave; low erosion estimates

Water levels at 95% C.I.

FEMA FIRMs are regulatory,CERI surge and wave maps are advisory

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

Shoreline erosion and sea level rise

Changes in storm frequency/severity

Cumulative storm effects

FIRMs Do Not Account For:

*If FIRMs suspect BFE + 3’ or moreSource: FEMA Home Builders Guide, TFS #1.6

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Modeled Surge Height

Source: CERI

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Modeled Wave Height

Source: CERI

Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI Base Flood Elev.

Source: CERI

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Total Inundation

Source: CERI

Coastal Environmental Risk Index NACCS Structure Class

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario

Residential LossesDamage > 50%

66%Lost to Erosion

< 1%Below MSL

< 1%

Source: CERI

Sea Level Rise = 2n = 1,132

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Visualization Alternatives

Source: CERI

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Data Access / OutreachOnline Mapping

Source: P. Stempel

Coastal Environmental Risk Index Data Access / OutreachOnline Mapping

Online Mapping: BeachSAMP.org

Coastal Environmental Risk Index

Source: P. Stempel

Data Access / Outreach:Visualization