CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

At the beginning of the twenty first century no

environmental issue is of such truly global

magnitude as the issue of climate change. Tune

to one of the news in a radio or TV and one of

the recurring topical subjects you will hear

about is climate change. Is our climate

changing? Is the question many asked. Many

scientists have concluded that the temperature

of our planet is rising significantly because of

the human activities. However, some other

scientists argue that the warming of the last

few years is part of a natural global cycle.

Climate change has been so pervasive that people

have developed psychological unrest as a result

of its consequences. In March 2010, there was a

weather forecast on the sudden reappearance of

what looks like harmattan occasioned by the

sandy storms from the Sahara desert. Acid rain

1

was predicted as a possible outcome. People of

Kano and even Nigerians were warmed not to allow

the acid rain to touch their body because it

could lead to body cancer, panic, natural

insecurity, speculations, rumours and

uncertainty characterized the entire period,

(See The Nation, 2010).

The major challenges facing humanity currently

are associated with the negative effects of

climate change, particularly in Sub – Saharan

Africa. Climate change is adversely affecting

practically all economic sectors, (Kadzomira,

2010). Africa is to have a future associated

with scarce water, declining agricultural yield,

desert encroachment and damaged coastal

infrastructure, (Kadzomira, 2010). The prognosis

on the negative effects of climate change for

Kano urban area is also very grim.

There are now scientific and physical proofs

that the climate of the world is changing,

2

(Adejoke et al., 2010), because by taking a good

look at the Kano urban area, evidence such as

drying of water recourses, increase in ambient

temperature, unpredictability, and erratic

climatic changing of seasons are already

prevailing. Thus, the effects of climate change

are even already taking its tools on the country

Nigeria in particular and Africa continent in

general, (Adejoke et al., 2010). It has become a

threat to all sectors of the nation’s socio –

economic development including the natural

ecosystem and security of life and property.

The West – African region has experienced a

marked declined in rainfall since 1968 – 1972

period ranging from 15% to 30% depending on the

area (Madiodio, 2005). The region’s major river

(Niger, Senegal and Volta) experienced

concomitant decrease in average discharge of 40%

to 60%, (Madiodio, 2005). He also cited that if

the trends in climate change contexts that took

3

place over the last three decades continue to

prevail, West Africa will experience decrease in

freshwater availability. Compared to previous

decades it is observed that since the early

1970s, the mean annual rainfall has decreased by

10% in the West Tropical Zone to more than 30%

in the Sahelian zone while the average discharge

of the regions major river systems dropped by

40% to 60%. This sharp decrease in water

availability has been combined with greater

uncertainty in the spatial and temporal

distribution of rainfall and temperature

(Oyebinde et al., 2002: Niasse et al., 2009).

In addition, Meteorological record shows cycles

of increasing and decreasing rainfall just since

the early 20th century, (IPCC, 2007). For

example, the Sahelian drought was preceded far

above average rainfall and was followed by

several years of average rainfall. Record also

suggests an overall downward trend in average

4

rainfall since 1990 where scientists have

suggested that the clearing of vegetation and

global warming may account for this apparent

trend. They argue that the removal of vegetation

causes higher surface temperature increase

evaporation and reduced rainfall. It is in view

of all this arguments that this research is

conceived.

1.2 Research Problem

Climate changes have been stated by many

environmental scientists to be one of the

fundamental environmental world problems

limiting man in this present age. Thus, “is the

climate of Kano urban area changing? Is the

problem set forth by this research, which will

be probed by analyzing past rainfall and

temperatures records of the study area.

1.3 Aims and Objectives

Based on the research problem stated above, the

study has the following aims and objectives;

5

a. To discuss the concept of climate change using

the climate data (Temperature and Rainfall),

b. To compare the past and present records of

rainfall and temperature of Kano Urban Area in

order to establish that climate change is a

reality,

c. To also compare the microclimate of the two

primary study areas (Tarauni and Ungogo

stations),

d. To describe various effects of climate change

in Kano Urban Area and

e. To project the possible consequences of

climate change in the area under study.

1.4 Significance of the Study

Climate is as important to the earth as father

of a man is as important to his origin. Hence,

understanding our climatic behaviour is of great

significance. The study anticipated to benefit

all facet of human endeavour. Specifically, as

it tends to broaden people’s view on the

consequences, effects and future projections

held by climate change.

6

The recommendations proposed in the research

should be taken seriously by all relevant

governmental parastatals responsible to manage

our environment, on the necessary steps towards

making people to be aware and get ready to

climate change as it stipulates the necessary

steps to mitigate its effects.

1.5 Research Hypotheses

The hypotheses to be tested by this research work are

stated as;

i. The rainfall of Kano urban area has

drastically decreased in its quantity and

duration.

ii. The temperature of Kano urban area has

doubled.

1.6 Scope and Limitation

This research work limits its scope to

temperature and rainfall data because there is

limited time to study other important element

like humidity, water balance, sunshine etc.

7

while climatic evidence were the main factors,

other factors cannot be covered or touched

because of the limitations in space. The project

might be too bulky and the data to be generated

may be too much for the research to analyse

given such a time of few months to graduate.

1.7 Research Methodology

The methodology involves various means that

where employed in carrying out the research

work, thus, the various methods used in

gathering data for this study were discussed

under this section and the methods include the

data type (both primary and secondary sources),

the study area and the methods of data analysis

and presentation.

1.7.1 Data Types

The data types adopted for this research work

are the primary and secondary sources of data.

Under this primary data, observation of the

subject matter was the main source which

8

involves the climatic element (i.e. temperature

and rainfall) for thirty one years past records

of the study area. On the other hand, the

secondary data includes textbooks, internet

publications, newspapers, journals, articles

etc.

1.7.2 Sample Area

In order to meet up with accurate result of the

topic at hand, a manageable unit of the study

area in respect of their geographical locations

were sampled out, and they include;

Northern most part of the sample area; Aminu

Kano International Airport at Ungogo Local

Government Area of Kano State.

South eastern position: Institute of

Agricultural Research, Ahmadu Bello

University, Shika Zaria at Tarauni Local

Government Area of Kano State.

9

1.7.3 Methods of Data Analysis and Presentation

Descriptive statistics was employed, out of

which a line graph was chosen to present the

datas. Since the study involves a longitudinal

measurement of records, a line graph was chosen

because it is idle for such a task, in the sense

that the presentation will not be redundant as

single line graph will correct such redundancy.

The data gathered will be plotted in a simple

line graph to detect whether there is increase

or decrease in the two variables (rainfall and

temperature). Hence follows are analysis of the

results. After each analysis, the result

obtained should be able to judge the argument

raise earlier that is the hypothesis.

1.8 Definition of Some Key Terms

Some words are defined below as used in this study,

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1. Change; to alter the content or form of; to

cause something to have a completely different

form.

2. Climate; the weather of an area over a long

period of time; It is the weather conditions

most prevailing in a place for at least 35 or 40

years.

3. Climate Change; it is a change in the statistical

distribution of weather over a period of time

that range from decades to million of years.

4.Global Warming; it is the increase in the average

temperature of earth’s near surface air and

oceans since the mid 20th century and its

projected continuation.

5. Temperature; the specific degree of hot or

coldness of a body or an environment; the

specific degree of heat or coldness as measured

by a thermometer or other standard scale like

Fahrenheit or Celsius. In this research, it is

11

being used in relation to the temperatures of

air only.

6. Precipitation; the falling to earth of any form of

water (rain, snow, hail, sleet or mist); the

quality of water falling to earth at a specific

place within a specified period of time.

7.Microclimate; the climate of a small, specific or

partial area as contrasted to that of a large

area, for example the microclimate of a given

city.

8.Weather; the state of the atmosphere at a

particular place and time as characterized by

sunshine, moisture, temperature, precipitation

and other climatic variables.

9. Effects; Results produced by a cause; ability to

bring about a result

10. Kano Urban Area; this is the area surrounding

the main Kano area/business district which

include the eight Local Government Areas i.e.

Municipal, Gwale, Dala, Nasarawa, Ungogo,

Kumbotso, Fagge and Tarauni.

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13

CHAPTER TWO

THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE STUDY AREA

2.1 Introduction

This chapter intends to explore the geographical

information of the area under study. This will

includes aspect like: the location and position,

geology, climate (temperature, rain and

humidity), relief, vegetation, soil, economy and

environmental management.

2.2 Location and Position of the Study Area

The study area is situated almost at the centre

of Kano state, comprising of the following local

government areas of Gwale, Dala, Tarauni,

Nassarawa, Hotoro, Munincipal, Ungogo and Fagge.

The Kano region covers an area extending between

latitude 120 03`N and 120 04`N; longitude 320

00`E and 340 00`E.

2.3 Geology

There are three major rock formations in the

study area namely: the basement complex rocks

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comprising of crystalline igneous and

metamorphic rocks dating back to the Precambrian

ages, younger rocks were intruded later in the

Jurassic epoch, the youngest formation is the

Chad sediment deposited from the quaternary

including recent deposits, Olafin (1987).

The study area is almost at the centre of Kano

state which is underlain by crystalline rock of

basement complex. To the eastern margins the

cretaceous sediments overlap the crystalline

rocks. In most areas, the solid rocks are

covered by several meters of weathered materials

or sandy drifts. In the Dala and Gwauron Dutse

hill (in the city) are some two inselberg

witnessed standing above 100 feet (ASL), Olafin

(1987).

2.4 Relief

Kano urban area is part of the very popular

plain in Hausaland, identified by a geographer

called Falconer. The rock structure and relief

15

are very closely related, (Abdullahi 2007).

However, the relief is greatly influenced by the

geology of the area fort example, igneous

structures are always higher in elevation when

compared to sedimentary structures that are

lower in elevation respectively, (Abdullahi

2007).

All together, the Kano urban area has a very low

relative relief of less than 30km, the landscape

is fairly a flat one and the two major hills

Dala and Gwauron Dutse suffers from

pediplanation as it is the most important

process in the creation of plains. This is

complemented by sedimentation of wind rift

materials where the wind blown materials where

dropped to cover the then existing land form.

Around Federal College of Education, Kano the

relief is about 430m ASL, and in all together

the Kano region lies between 600 – 400m ASL,

(Abdullahi, 2007).

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2.5 Climate

According to W. Koppen classification, the study

area has a tropical wet and dry type of climate.

The area being situated on the semi arid

environment experienced long periods of dry

season that is seven to eight months (from

middle October to May) and short period of

raining seasons that is four to five months

(June to September), while the Harmattan seasons

is experienced between November to February.

The study area is associated with very hot

scorching sunshine which leads to high

evaporation processes. Also the mean annual

temperature and total rainfall are about 260C and

884.4mm respectively, Olafin, (1987). And the

climate is determined by the movement of two air

masses, a moist rather cool southerly air mass

known as the south – westerly and a hot and dry

air mass called the north easterly. The moist

south air forms wedges under the lighter dry air

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and the region where the two air masses meet is

primarily an area of profound moisture gradient.

The humidity is called the Intertropical

Discontinuity (ITD). From 210C in the coolest

months, December and January when the

northeasterly wind is at the height blowing

vehemently unchecked from the Sahara, its cool,

very dry and dusty, also to 310C hottest months

April to May, hence the climatic conditions of

the study area is strongly influenced by

rainfall and temperature.

2.5.1 Rainfall

The first rain commences early in May and is

concentrated from June to September. August is

the hottest month, an average rainfall of 12``

is recorded in Kano metropolis. Rainfall is a

very critical element in the region because of

its deficiency during dry season. In a normal

year, the mean annual rainfall in the

Metropolitan Kano is about 800mm, Olafin (1984).

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Great temporal variation occurring in the amount

of rainfall received any where in the Kano

region. No two consecutive years record the same

amount, and averages calculated for two periods

are never the same.

2.5.2 Temperature

The latitudinal position of Kano region itself

and its interior locations away from the sea

determine its climate which is hot and dry for

most of the year. Maximum dry temperature of

about 380C is common and minimum temperature is

about 100C. Plant growth is there possible

throughout the year as far as the is concerned,

but the rainfall which is often unreliable

constitutes a serious problem.

2.5.3 Humidity

Humidity refers to the amount of water vapour

presences in the atmosphere (air), the humidity

in Kano metropolis is very low because the area

is located at Sudan Savannah which is

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characterized by high temperature or about 330C

so that the amount of sunshine has an effect on

the relative humidity of the area.

The dryness condition of the region is as a

result of distance of the region from the sea,

keeps the humidity of the area low about 30% but

this increase to about 40% - 75% during wet

season.

2.6 Vegetation

The study area region lies in the Sudan Savannah

zone, but its vegetation has been completely

modified as a result of several centuries of

human occupation, featuring bush burning for

cultivation, as well as cattle grazing, city

expansion etc. In closely settled area around

Kano natural bush vegetation is almost

completely absent, but several trees have been

planted for shade and fruits. Such cultivation

of trees includes Acacia, Albido, Tamarind,

Indica, and Buterosperman parkii. A considerably

20

growth of natural vegetation, occurs in areas

which are remote from human settlement or which

are marginal or uncultivatable but even in such

areas grazing and bush burning are not restrict.

2.7 Soil

The nature of the soil is weathered rock and

sandy drift constitute the two main soil forming

parent materials, but difference in soil types

depends on the catena arrangement. On the

interflows and upper slopes of undulating

districts the soils are of red brown to orange

colour and consist of sandy clay loam overlying

literate ironstone. These soils are cultivated

even in areas where the ironstone is only a few

inches beneath the surface. In the Fadamas or

seasonally flooded valley floors, heavier grey

alluvial soils with a heights clay contents

occur.

Accelerated soil erosion by wind and running

water has laid certain tracks in the densely

21

settled areas, such as the Kano Urban areas.

Wind erosion is particular serious towards the

end of the dry season, when the storms preceding

the onset of the rains blow off much of the

soil.

2.8 Economy

Kano has long been the economic centre of

Northern Nigeria, and a centre for the

production and export of groundnut. Kano houses

the Bayero University and a rail way station

with trains to Lagos routed through Kaduna,

while Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport

lies nearby. Because Kano is north of the rail

junction to Kaduna it has equal access to the

seaport at Lagos and Port Harcourt. Formerly

walled, most of the gates to the old city

survive. The old city houses the vast Kurmi

market, known for its crafts while old dye pits

22

still in use – lie nearby. Also in the old city

are the Emir palace, the great mosque and the

Gidan Makama museum housed in 15 century

building that is a National Monument,

(Britannica Encyclopaedia, 2007). As of

November 2007, there are plans to establish an

information technology park in the city, (NCKP

ITP, 2007). The city is supplied with water by

the nearby Challawa Gorge Dam which is also

being considered as a source of hydro power,

(Abdu Salihu, 2009).

3.9 Population

According to the 1991 Nigerian Population

Census, Kano which is the second largest state

in the country consists of 21,858,725 males.

2773,316 females making a total of 562,040

people, out of which 1,364, 300 people are

living within the metropolitan Kano.

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CHAPTER THREE

LITERATURE REVIEW

3.1 Historical Evolution of Climate Change

The history of the scientific discovery of

climate change began in the early 19th century

when natural changes in Paleoclimate were first

suspected and the natural greenhouse

effect first identified, (Wikipedia, 2010). In

the late 19th century, scientists first argued

that human emissions of greenhouse gases could

change the climate, but the calculations were

disputed. In the 1950s and 1960s, scientists

increasingly thought that human activity could

change the climate on a timescale of decades,

but were unsure whether the net impact would be

to warm or cool the climate. During the 1970s,

scientific opinion increasingly favoured the

warming viewpoint. In the 1980s the consensus

position formed that human activity was in the

24

process of warming the climate, leading to the

beginning of the modern period of global

warming science summarized by

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

(Wikipedia, 2010).

3.1.1 Paleoclimate Change and the Natural Greenhouse

Effect, Early and Mid 1800s

Prior to the 18th century, scientists had not

suspected that prehistoric climates were

different from the modern period. By the late

18th century, geologists found evidence of a

succession of geological ages with changes in

climate. There were various competing theories

about these changes, and James Hutton, whose

ideas of cyclic change over huge periods of time

were later dubbed uniformitarianism, was among

those who found signs of past glacial activity

in places too warm for glaciers in modern times

(Young Davis, 1995). 

25

Although he wasn't a scientist, in 1815 Jean-

Pierre Perraudin described for the first time

how glaciers might be responsible for the giant

boulders seen in alpine valleys. As he hiked in

the Val de Bagnes, he noticed giant granite

rocks that were scattered around the narrow

valley. He knew that it would take an

exceptional force to move such large rocks. He

also noticed how glaciers left stripes on the

land, and concluded that it was the ice that had

carried the boulders down into the valleys,

(Holli Riebeek, 2005).

His idea was initially met with disbelief. Jean

de Charpentier wrote, "I found his hypothesis so

extraordinary and even so extravagant that I

considered it as not worth examining or even

considering." (Imbrie, et al., 1979) Despite

Charpentier rejecting his theory, Perraudin

eventually convinced Ignaz Venetz that it might

be worth studying. Venetz convinced Charpentier,

26

who in turn convinced the influential

scientist Louis Agassiz that the glacial theory

had merit, (Holli Riebeek, 2005).

Agassiz developed a theory of what he termed

"Ice Age" — when glaciers covered Europe and

much of North America. In 1837 Agassiz was the

first to scientifically propose that the Earth

had been subject to a past ice age, (Evans,

2008). William Buckland had led attempts in

Britain to adapt the geological theory

of catastrophism to account for erratic boulders

and other "diluvium" as relics of the Biblical

flood. This was strongly opposed by Charles

Lyell's version of Hutton's uniformitarianism,

and was gradually abandoned by Buckland and

other catastrophist geologists. A field trip to

the Alps with Agassiz in October 1838 convinced

Buckland that features in Britain had been

caused by glaciation, and both he and Lyell

strongly supported the ice age theory which

27

became widely accepted by the 1870s. (Young

Davis, 1995)

In the same general period that scientists first

suspected climate change and ice ages, Joseph

Fourier, in 1824, found that Earth's atmosphere

kept the planet warmer than would be the case in

a vacuum, and he made the first calculations of

the warming effect. Fourier recognized that the

atmosphere transmitted visible light waves

efficiently to the earth's surface. The earth

then absorbed visible light and emitted infrared

radiation in response, but the atmosphere did

not transmit infrared efficiently, which

therefore increased surface temperatures. He

also suspected that human activities could

influence climate, although he focused primarily

on land use changes. In a 1827 paper Fourier

stated, "The establishment and progress of human

societies, the action of natural forces, can

notably change, and in vast regions, the state

28

of the surface, the distribution of water and

the great movements of the air. Such effects are

able to make to vary, in the course of many

centuries, the average degree of heat; because

the analytic expressions contain coefficients

relating to the state of the surface and which

greatly influence the temperature" (William

Connolley, 2008)

3.1.2 The First Calculations of Human-Induced Climate

Change, Late 1800s

By the late 1890s, American scientist Samuel

Pierpoint Langley had attempted to determine the

surface temperature of the moon by measuring

infrared radiation leaving the moon and reaching

the earth, (David Archer, 2009) The angle of the

moon in the sky when a scientist took a

measurement determined how much CO2 and water

vapour the moon's radiation had to pass through

to reach the earth's surface, resulting in

weaker measurements when the moon was low in the

29

sky. This result was unsurprising given that

scientists had known about the greenhouse effect

for decades.

Meanwhile, Swedish scientist Arvid Högbom had

been attempting to quantify natural sources of

emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for purposes of

understanding the global carbon cycle. Högbom

decided to compare the natural sources with

estimated carbon production from industrial

sources in the 1890s, (Spencer Weart, 2003).

Another Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius,

integrated Högbom and Langley's work. He

realized that Högbom's calculation of human

influence on carbon would eventually lead to a

doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and used

Langley's observations of increased infrared

absorption where moon rays pass through

atmosphere at a low angle, encountering more CO2,

to estimate an atmospheric warming effect from a

30

future doubling of CO2. He also realized the

effect would also reduce snow and ice cover on

earth, making the planet darker and warmer.

Adding in this effect gave a total calculated

warming of 5-6 degrees Celsius. However, because

of the relatively low rate of CO2 production in

1896, Arrhenius thought the warming would take

thousands of years and might even be beneficial

to humanity, (Spencer Weart, 2003).

3.1.3 Concern and Increasing Urgency, 1950s and 1960s

Better spectrography in the 1950s showed that

CO2 and water vapour absorption lines did not

overlap completely. Climatologists also realized

that little water vapour was present in the

upper atmosphere. Both developments showed that

the CO2 greenhouse effect would not be

overwhelmed by water vapour, (Spencer Weart,

2003).

31

Scientists began using computers to develop more

sophisticated versions of Arrhenius' equations,

and carbon-14 isotope analysis showed that

CO2 released from fossil fuels were not

immediately absorbed by the ocean. Better

understanding of ocean chemistry led to a

realization that the ocean surface layer had

limited ability to absorb carbon dioxide. By the

late 1950s, more scientists were arguing that

carbon dioxide emissions could be a problem,

with some projecting in 1959 that CO2 would rise

25% by the year 2000, with potentially "radical"

effects on climate, (Spencer Weart, 2003).

By the 1960s, aerosol pollution ("smog") had

become a serious local problem in many cities,

and some scientists began to consider whether

the cooling effect of particulate pollution

could affect global temperatures. Scientists

were unsure whether the cooling effect of

particulate pollution or warming effect of

32

greenhouse gas emissions would predominate, but

regardless, began to suspect the net effect

could be disruptive to climate in the matter of

decades. In his 1968 book The Population

Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote "the greenhouse

effect is being enhanced now by the greatly

increased level of carbon dioxide... this is

being countered by low-level clouds generated by

contrails, dust, and other contaminants... At

the moment we cannot predict what the overall

climatic results will be of our using the

atmosphere as a garbage dump," (Paul Ehrlich,

1968).

3.1.4 Controversy and Disinterest, Early 1900s to Mid

1900s

Arrhenius' calculations were disputed and

subsumed into a larger debate over whether

atmospheric changes had caused the ice ages.

Experimental attempts to measure infrared

absorption in the laboratory showed little

33

differences resulted from increasing CO2 levels,

and also found significant overlap between

absorption by CO2 and absorption by water vapor,

all of which suggested that increasing carbon

dioxide emissions would have little climatic

effect. These early experiments were later found

to be insufficiently accurate, given the

instrumentation of the time. Many scientists

also thought that oceans would quickly absorb

any excess carbon dioxide, (Spencer Weart,

2003).

While a few early 20th-Century scientists

supported Arrhenius' work, including E. O.

Hulburt and Guy Stewart Callendar, most

scientific opinion disputed or ignored it

through the early 1950s, (Spencer Weart, 2003).

3.1.5 Scientists Increasingly Predicting Warming,1970s

Scientists in the 1970s started to shift from

the uncertain leanings in the 1960s to

34

increasingly a prediction of future warming. A

survey of the scientific literature from 1965 to

1979 found 7 articles predicting cooling and 44

predicting warming, with the warming articles

also being cited much more often in subsequent

scientific literature, (Peterson et al., 2008).

Several scientific panels from this time period

concluded that more research was needed to

determine whether warming or cooling was likely,

indicating that the trend in the scientific

literature had not yet become a consensus,

(Connolley et al., 2008). On the other hand, the

1979 World Climate Conference of the World

Meteorological Organization concluded "it

appears plausible that an increased amount of

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can contribute

to a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere,

especially at higher latitudes....It is possible

that some effects on a regional and global scale

may be detectable before the end of this century

35

and become significant before the middle of the

next century," (WMO, 2009)

The mainstream news media at the time did not

reflect scientific opinion. In

1975, Newsweek magazine published a story that

warned of "ominous signs that the Earth's

weather patterns have begun to change," and

reported "a drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit]

in average ground temperatures in the Northern

Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968,"(Peter Gwynne,

1975). The article continued by stating that

evidence of global cooling was so strong that

meteorologists were having "a hard time keeping

up with it," (Peter Gwynne, 1975). On October

23, 2006, Newsweek issued an update stating that

it had been "spectacularly wrong about the near-

term future" (Jerry Adler, 2006).

3.1.6 Climate Change Scientific Consensus Developed,

1980-1988

36

By the early 1980s, the slight cooling trend

from 1945-1975 had stopped, (James Hansen,

2009). Aerosol pollution had decreased in many

areas due to environmental legislation and

changes in fuel use, and it became clear that

the cooling effect from aerosols was not going

to increase substantially while carbon dioxide

levels were progressively increasing, (James

Hansen, 2009).

In 1985 a joint UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference on the

"Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and

Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and

Associated Impacts" assessed the role of carbon

dioxide and aerosols in the atmosphere, and

concluded that greenhouse gases "are expected"

to cause significant warming in the next century

and that some warming is inevitable, (WMO,

2009) In June 1988, James E. Hansen made one of

the first assessments that human-caused warming

37

had already measurably affected global climate,

(James Hansen, 2009).

3.1.7 Modern Period: 1988 to Present

Both the UNEP and WMO had followed up on the

1985 Conference with additional meetings. In

1988 the WMO established the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change with the support of the

UNEP. The IPCC continues its work through the

present day, and issues a series of Assessment

Reports and supplemental reports that describe

the state of scientific understanding at the

time each report is prepared. Scientific

developments during this period are discussed in

the articles for each Assessment Report,

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

2008).

3.2 Physical Evidence for Climatic Change

Petit et al., (1999) are of the opinion that

evidence of climatic changes are taken from a

38

variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct

climates, and they include;

1) Historical and Archaeological Evidence: Climate

change in the recent past may be detected by

corresponding changes in settlement and

agriculture pattern. Archaeological evidence,

oral history and historical documents can offer

insights into past changes in the climate.

2) Vegetation: A change in the type, distribution

and coverage of vegetation may occur given a

change in the climate; this much is obvious. In

any given scenario, a wild change in climate may

result in increased precipitation and warmth,

resulting in improved plant growth and the

sequestration of airborne carbon dioxide.

Larger, faster or more radical changes however,

may well result in vegetation stress, rapid

plant loss and desertification in certain

circumstances, (Bachelet et al., 2004).

39

3) Sea Level Changes: Global sea level change for

much of the last century has generally been

estimated using tide gauge measurements collated

over long periods of time to give a long time

average. More recently, altimeter measurement

(an altitude – measuring device such as

specially calibrated barometer) – in combination

with accurately determined satellite orbits –

have provided an improved measurement of global

sea level change, (University of Colorado at

Boulder, 2009, retrieved).

4) Changes in Temperature: According to N.O.A.A

(2008) state of the climate report and the

N.A.S.A (2008) surface temperature analysis;

a. Since the mid 1970s, the average surface

temperature has warmed about 1oF,

b. The earth’s surface is currently warming at

a rate of about 2.9oF per century,

40

c. The eight warmest years on records (since

1880) have all occurred only after 2001,

with the warmest year being 2005,

In addition from (IPCC, 2007);

a. The warming trend is seen in both daily

maximum and minimum temperature with minimum

temperature increasing at a faster rate than

maximum temperature,

b. Land areas have tended to warm faster than

oceans areas and the winter months have

warmed far than summer months,

c. Widespread reductions in the number of days

below freezing occurred during the later

half of the 20th century in the United

States as well as most land areas of the

northern hemisphere and areas of the south

hemisphere,

d. Average temperatures in the Artic have

increased at almost twice the global rate in

the past 100 years.

41

5) Changes in Rainfall: According to the IPCC, an

increase in the average global temperature is

likely to lead to changes in precipitation and

atmospheric moisture because of changes in

atmospheric circulation and increase in

evaporation and water vapour. Further more, IPCC

2007 Climatic Models suggests;

a. An increase in global average annual

precipitation during 21st century, although

changes in precipitation will vary from

region to region,

b. An increase in intensity of precipitation

events, particularly in tropical and high

latitude regions that experience overall

increase in precipitation,

c. Annual average precipitation increase over

most of northern Europe, the Artic, Canada,

the North-eastern United States, Tropical

and Eastern Africa, the Northern Pacific and

42

Antarctica, as well as Northern Asia and the

Tibetan Plateau in winter,

d. Annual average precipitation decrease in

most of the Mediterranean, Northern Africa,

Northern Sahara, Central America, the

American Southeast, the Southern Andes as

well as South-eastern Australia during

winter,

e. And reduced rainfall over continental

interiors during summer due to increase in

evaporation.

3.3 Causes of Climate Change

Gribbin (1978) is of the opinion that several

theories, covering varying timescales, have been

advanced to try to explain climatic changes. At

present there is no unanimous consensus of

opinion as to its causes; climatic change may be

explained by one of these theories, several in

combination, or by a theory yet to be

43

propounded. Thus, the suggested theories

include;

1) Variations in Solar Energy: Although it was

initially believed that solar energy output did

not vary over time, increasing evidences

suggests that sunspot activity, which occur in

cycles may significantly affect out climatic –

times of high annual temperatures on earth

appear to correspond to period of maximum

sunspot activity.

2) Astronomical Relationships Between the Sun and

the Earth: There is increasing evidence

supporting Milankovitch’s cycles of change in

the earth’s orbit, tilt and wobble. This world

accounts for changes in the amount of solar

radiation reaching the earth’s surface.

3) Changes in Oceanic Circulation: Changes in

oceanic circulation affect the exchange of heat

between the oceans and the atmosphere. This can

44

have both long term effects on world climate

(where currents at the onset of the quaternary

ice age flowed in opposite direction to those at

the end of the ice age) and short term effects.

4) Composition of the Atmosphere: Gases in the

atmosphere can be increased and altered

following volcanic eruptions. At present,

increasing concern is being expressed at the

build up of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere

and the resultant greenhouse effect together

with the use of aerosol which are blamed for the

depletion of ozone in the upper atmosphere.

5) Human Influence: Anthropogenic factors are human

activities that change the climate. In some

cases the chain of causality of human influence

on the climate is direct and unambiguous (for

example, the effects of irrigation on local

humidity), whilst in other instance it is less

clear. Various hypotheses for human induced

climate change have been argued for many years.

45

Presently, the scientific consensus on climate

change is that human activity is very likely the

cause for the rapid increase in global average

temperature over the past several decades,

(IPCC, 2007).

Consequently, the debate has largely shifted

onto ways to reduce further human impact and to

find ways to adapt to change that has already

occurred, (IPCC, 2007). Of most concern in these

anthropogenic factors is the increase in Carbon

dioxide levels due to emission from fossils fuel

combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate

matter in the atmosphere) and cement

manufacture. Other factors, including land use,

ozone depletion, and deforestation are also of

concern in the roles they play both separately

and in conjunction with other factors in

affecting climate, microclimate and measures of

climate variables, (Steinfield, et al., 2006).

3.4 Climate Change and the Economy

46

Socio economic scenarios are used by analysts to

make projection of future Green House Gas

emissions and to assess future vulnerability to

climate change (Charter et al., 2005), producing

scenarios required estimates of future

population level, economic activity, the

structure of governance, social values and

patterns of technical change. Economic and

energy modelling can be used to analyze and

quantify the effects of such drives.

The Emission Scenarios

Global future scenarios can be thought of

stories of possible future consequence. They

allow the description of factors that are

difficult to quantify, such as government,

social structures and institutions. Marita et al.,

(2001) assessed the literature on global future

47

scenarios. They found considerably variety among

scenarios, ranging from variety of sustainable

development to the collapse of social, economic

and environmental systems. In the majority of

studies, the following relationships were found;

- Rising Green House Gases: This was

associated with scenarios having growth,

post industrial economy with

globalization mostly with low government

intervention and generally high levels of

competition. Income equality declined

within nations, but there were no clear

patterns in social equity or internal

income equity.

- Falling Green House Gases: In some of

these scenarios Gross Domestic Product

rose. Other scenarios showed economic

activity limited at an ecologically

sustainable level scenarios with falling

emission had a high level of government

48

interventions in the economy. The

majority of scenarios showed increase

social equity and income equality within

and among nations.

No strong patterns were found in the

relationship between economic activity and GHGs

emissions. Economic growth was found to be

compatible with increasing or decreasing growth

of GHG emissions. In the latter case, emissions

growth is mediated by increased energy

sufficient and efficiency, shifts to non –

fossil energy source and or shift to a post

industrial service base economy.

Thus, the concept of carbon credit came into

existence as a result of increasing awareness of

the need for controlling emission. The IPCC has

observed that; Policies that provide a real or

implicit price of carbon could create incentives

for producers and consumer to significantly

49

invest in low GHG products, technologies and

processes. Such policies could include economic

instruments, government funding and regulations.

A carbon credits is a generic term meaning that

a value has been assigned to a reduction of

offset of greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon

credit and markets are key components of

national and international attempts to mitigate

the growth in concentrations of Green House

Gases. One carbon credit is equal to one ton of

carbon dioxide or in some markets, carbon

dioxide equivalent gases. Carbon trading is an

application of an emission trading approach.

Green House Gases emissions are capable to cap

and then markets are used to allocate the

emissions among the group of regulated sources.

The goal is to allow market mechanisms to drive

industrial and commercial processes in the

directions of low emissions or less carbon

50

intensive approaches than those used when there

is no cost to emitting carbon dioxide and other

GHGs into the atmosphere. Since GHGs mitigation

projects generate credits, this approach can be

used to finance carbon reduction schemes between

trading partners and around the world, (IPCC,

2007).

3.5 Climate Change and Politics

Climate change is a defining issue in this

contemporary life. Since the industrial

revolution, heavy reliance on carbon – based

sources for energy in industry and society has

contributed to substantial changes in the

climate, indicated by increase in temperature

and sea level rise. This particular period of

time has been referred to as the “Anthropocene

Era”, or the “Age of Hydrocarbon Human”

(Anthony, 2008).

In the last three decades, concerns regarding

human contributions to climate change have moved

51

from obscure scientific inquiries to the force

of science politics, policy and practices at

many levels. From local adaptation strategies to

international treaty negotiation, “The Politics

of Climate Change” is a pervasive, vital and

contested as it has ever been, (Anthony 2008).

On the cusp of a new commitment to international

cooperation to rein in green house gas emissions

(to be decided at UN climate change conference

in Copenhagen, Denmark in December, 2009) world

leader say ‘Climate Change is one of the most

serious threat facing humanity’. Are they right?

If they are, who is going to do what about it?

Who will benefit and who will pay?

The open democracy which invites everyone to

take part in one of the hottest debates of out

time, which took place in the Danish Capital,

Copenhagen’s, many environmentalist whipped up

the rhetorical tempo in the months before the

conference by using such phrase as the “Last

52

Chance to save the earth” and the most important

meeting in the history of mankind”, (BBC

Official Website, 2009).

At present, public discussion of climate change

tends to be partial and disparate. Loosely

connected debates hinges on the evidence that

climate change is occurring and estimates of its

potential impacts; the prospects for agreeing an

international framework for an economic response

to, for instance, carbon trading surrounding the

potential for technological innovation that

could solve the problem and scenarios building

that tends to emphasize the necessity for

dramatic lifestyle change. But the debate is too

limited in scope and too compartmentalize. To

truly come to terms with the increasing urgent

need for mitigation and adaptation requires a

broad, policy perspective because the impact of

climate change challenges every corner of the

21st century states.

53

Anthony (2008) continued that, although an

international agreements is a vital aspect of an

effective global response to climate change, we

cannot rely exclusively on international

consensus as an impetus for action. No amount of

discussion at the international level will be of

any consequences if the countries mainly

responsible for causing climate change do not

make effective and radical responses to it. So

it is at the national level in the developed

countries that progress first has to be made.

And it is through decisive national leadership

at this level that a global solution can

eventually be induced.

The Copenhagen’s Climate Change Outcomes

Marc (2009), as reported in his website, the COP

15 Copenhagen Conference took place between

December 7th and December 19th 2009 and officials

and ministers from 192 countries attended the

conference over 20,000 people attended in total,

54

and there were also thousands of climate change

protectors outside the summit. The conference was

a total failure as political leaders scratched

together a last minute compromise that did not

include any binding agreements. Avoiding total

disarray, leaders agreed to continue working

towards the targets set at the start of the

conferences. UN Secretary General Banki-moon

called it a beginning. Politicians such as

American President Barrack Obama, also hopped the

outcomes was a step in the right direction. The

document that emerged from the climate change

conference is the “Copenhagen Accord”. This

Copenhagen Accord contains twelve’s points as set

out in the United Nation’s Framework Convention on

Climate Change Report (unfccc.int, 2009). The main

points contained in the documents are;

ii. The signees recognize findings that proclaim

climate change to be one of the greatest

challenges faced in our time.

55

iii. They agree to work towards keeping the rise in

global temperatures to below two degree

Celsius.

iv. Large industrialized countries must provide

plans for cutting carbon emissions by January

30th 2010.

v. They must prevent deforestation.

vi. Developing countries should be provided with

incentive to use clean energy.

Climate Change Targets will now be sanitized; the

UKs Department for Energy and Climate Change

(decc.gov.uk, 2009) reported that some of

Copenhagen outcomes that results from the UN

Climate Change Summit Countries were;

i. Countries will now be held to account for what

they are actually achieving with mandatory

reporting every two years for developing

countries.

ii. To aid developing countries, $ 30 billion of

immediate short term funding from developed

56

countries will be provided over the next three

years to kick short emission reduction

measures.

However, Marc concluded that these measures are

not enough for many climate change activists, and

they still consider Copenhagen to have been a

failed opportunity that could cost the plant and

its inhabitants dearly.

3.6 Effects of Climate Change: African Perspective

In the latest report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, the chapter on Africa

asserts that in the last few years many

connections between climate variability and

climate change have been discovered. But,

notwithstanding these discoveries is still in

urgent need for research in order to better

understand the complex interrelationship between

climate change and Africa’s land use systems,

57

food security, health and biodiversity etc,

(Boko et al., 2007).

3.6.1 Rise in Temperature and Rainfall

The level of information on the consequences of

climate change in Africa has however clearly

improved in the last couple of years. The latest

IPPC report confirms the continuation of the

trend which have been visible on the continent

for some now: using temperature as well as

depending area increased or decrease rainfall,

(Boko et al., 2007).

Based on a scenario of average emissions, as

presented in the IPCC report of 2007, a rise in

global average surface temperature of three to

four degree Celsius (3 – 4oC) compared to the

last two decades, 1980 and 1990, is expected by

the period 2080 to 2090. However, these averages

do not shed light on regional differences. The

rise in temperature in Africa will probably show

regional and seasonal variations. In North

58

Africa, in particular summer are expected to be

hotter; the winter temperature in contrast will

be lower, (Boko et al., 2007).

In Sahelian zone one most reckon with a

potential rise in temperature of 3.6oC (German

Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2008),

rain fall projections are comparatively

speaking, less consistent. The average emission

scenario presumes that rainfall along the

Mediterranean coast and north of the Sahara will

decrease by one fifth by the period 2080 - 2090,

(Boko, 2007: 443). Declining rainfall and a

rising rate of evaporation die to high

temperature will probably further aggravate

water scarcity in the Northern Africa Summer.

For the regions of Southern Africa which lies in

the subtropical belt, the projections indicate a

clear reduction in rainfall in the winter

months, (WBGU, 2008: 147). Here the

precipitation figures could decrease by up to

59

40% during the southern winter, (Boko, 2007:

443). This is arguably the regional projection

with the most dramatic consequences. The

situation in Tropical and East Africa different,

here a seven percent (7%) increase in rainfall

is anticipated, (Boko, 2007: 443). Furthermore,

the rainfall distribution is highly variable in

East Africa. Records show that rainfall has

increased in the last century. However,

projections up to 2050 indicate difference in

parts of equatorial east Africa rainfall will

increase in winter while in summer it will

decrease. In the whole it is to be expected that

the intensity and frequency of rainfall will

change. High temperature and less rainfall in

the dry months will affect the course of the

river. The Pagari and Ruvu rivers in Tanzania

will presumably carry six to nine percent and

one – tenth, respectively loss water. One of the

freshwater sources the Kilimanjaro glacier has

60

melted away to a large extent already and is

expected to completely disappear by 2015/2020,

(W.W.F, 2006: 4).

3.6.2 Agriculture and Water Scarcity

It is clear evidence that African farmers have

become used to adjusting to the invariable,

unpredictable changes in weather, according to

IPCC report (Boko et al., 2007). Climate change

will cost African farmers more effort in terms

of survival strategies than everything demanded

from them so far. Thus, a considerably drop in

agricultural yield is expected on the entire

continent; arid and semi – arid areas are

expected to expand by 5 – 8% by 2080. This

corresponds to a loss of approximately 6000

million hectares of agricultural productive

land, (WBGU, 2008: 148).

Africa agriculture is moreover a highly

sensitive sector with records to the climate,

because rain fed agriculture is prevalent here.

61

Climate change according to IPCC projections

will shorten the cultivation phases, and thus

more land will drop out of production due to

water scarcity. If land use is constantly

restricted as a result of climate change (still

in seasons, water scarcity due to steady drop in

rainfall), this will have negative implication

on employment and production in the agrarian

sector and directly on the lives of a great part

of the African rural population. Approximately

70% of the population lives from agriculture,

and 40% of all Africans exports are derived from

agriculture. The IPCC estimates that the decline

in production could reach more than 50% in some

countries by 2020 and that the income from

agricultural production could drop by up to 90%

by 2100, small scale farmers will be most

affected. The food security in the entire

continent will be impaired and this may led to

increase dependency on food import.

62

Also the rise in the sea level predicted for

agriculture in Africa and human settlement and

even agricultural lands as well as freshwater

reservoirs, a rise of mainly 50cm in the level

of the Mediterranean Sea could release saltwater

nine kilometres into the coastal aquifers of the

Nile Delta. Egypt’s utility and shrinking water

supply is 90% dependent on the Nile (WBGU,

2008). Moreover, a sea level increase of 1m

could mean a loss of 4,500km of arable land for

coastal areas where at least, one hundred

thousand people will have to resettled, (UNDP,

2007: 100).

3.6.3 Poverty and Health

The most recent UNDP report on human development

establishes clearly the connection between

climate change and poverty. The consequences of

climate change perpetuate and aggravate already

existing injustices. This is particularly true

of Africa, where two mutually reinforcing

63

factors poverty and factual climate change for

examples in the form of drought collide. Africa

states are without exception, the taillight of

the human development index, (UNDP, 2007).

While farmers can fall back on insurance in case

of crop failure due to drought, people in Africa

have to develop other strategies. They will

probably reduce consumption, reduce food intake

and withdraw their children from school in order

to compensate for the change. The interplay

between environment and development will

inevitably end in crisis. As a consequences of

climate change, it is assumed that diseases such

as malaria and rift valley fever will spread.

Even though it is assumed that malaria pathogens

or their carriers will not survive climate

change in some regions, other areas will become

malaria zones. Even today, malaria is spreading

into the hitherto malaria – free highland of

Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi. It is even

64

likely that malaria will spread into the

highlands of Somalia and Angola by the end of

the century. By and large it is anticipated that

malaria cases will increase by 5 – 7 % by 2100,

(Boko, 2007; WWF, 2006)

3.6.4 Violent Conflicts

Numerous studies indicate that there is a

connection between climate change on the one

hand and security and violent conflicts on the

other (Smith, 2007; WBGU, 2006; Campbell, 2007;

Boko, 2007: 443). Dan Smith of International

Alert have pointed out that climate change could

promote violent conflicts. With increased

scarcity of usable land and water resources,

impoverishment will continue. This is

particularly predicted for North Africa.

Conflicts around scarce resources (water) and

migration (for example as a result of drought)

could become more frequent and could intensify

due to climate change. With regards to already

65

smouldering conflicts, the repercussion from

climate change alongside others. Factors could

have an escalating effect. However, the

contribution of this factor in comparison to

other factors is difficult to measure.

3.6.5 Biodiversity Loss

The African continent still posses a unique

biodiversity one-fifth of all known mammals;

birds and plants species living in their

habitats, but it is threatened by climate

change, (WWF, 2006:9). Local deforestation,

slash and burn agriculture, the conversion of

pristine habitats into agricultural areas,

pollution and over fishing of coastal water are

further exacerbating the situation. The warming

of the oceans and the rise in the sea level will

affect the protective function and the

biodiversity of the mangrove forests and coral

reefs, the spawning ground for fish and an

essential protective mechanism of the coast, a

66

factor not to be underestimated for tourism will

be lost. The projection regarding the loss of

mammals, particularly along the migratory routes

of large herds of wild mammals and (migratory

birds) are especially alarming. For southern

African it is estimated that the interplay

between land use and climate change

(particularly desertification) will have serious

effects on the survival chances of larger

mammals. In the Kruger National Park (South

Africa), it is feared that at least two thirds

of the species will be lost, (WWF, 2006:9).

3.7 Future Projection of Climate Change

Green House Gas concentration in the atmosphere

will increase during the next century unless

green house gas emissions decreases

substantially from present level, (IPCC, 2007).

Increased green house gas concentrations are

likely to raise earth’s average temperature,

67

influence precipitations and some storm patterns

as well as raise sea level, (IPCC, 2007).

The magnitude of these changes, however is

uncertain, the amount and speed of future

climate change will ultimately depend on;

Weather green house gases and aerosol

concentrations increase, stay the same or

decrease.

How strongly features of climate (e.g.

temperature, precipitation etc) respond to

changes in greenhouse gas and aerosols

concentration.

How must the climate varies as a result of

natural influences (e.g. from volcanic

activity and changes in the sun’s intensity)

and its internal variability (referring to

the random changes in the circulation of the

atmosphere and ocean).

68

A good example of future changes in

precipitation projected by a general circulation

model is the ‘Climate Model’.

Climate Model, virtually all published estimates

of how the climate could change in the future

are produced by computer models of earth’s

climate system, these model are known as General

Circulation Models (GCM). According to IPCC,

2007;

“Confidence in models comes from thephysical basis and their skill inrepresenting observed climate and pastclimate changes. Models have prove tobe extremely important tools forstimulating and understanding climateand there is considerable confidenceof future climate change, modelscontinue to have significantlimitations, such as theirrepresentation of clouds which lead touncertainties in the magnitude andtiming, as well as regional details ofpredicted climate change. Neverthelessover several decades, models developedhave consistently provided a robustand unambiguous picture of significantclimate warming in response toincreasing greenhouse gases”.

69

It is important to recognize that projections of

climate change in specific areas are not

forecasts comparable to tomorrow’s weather

forecast. Rather they are hypothetical examples

of how the climate might change and usually

contain a range of possibilities as opposed to

one specific high likelihood outcomes.

3.8 Control Measures So Far Taken

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

was established in November, 1988, jointly by the

United Nation Environmental Programmes (UNEP) and

the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a

forum in which government representatives

deliberate on the scientific aspect of issues

related to global warming. More than one thousand

scientists are enlisted from around the world, to

consolidate, evaluate and report to the world the

latest scientific findings most especially on

climate change.

Treaty on Framework Convention on Climate Change:

70

Advances in IPCC studies about global warming

have highlighted the importance for the

international problems for international

community, (IPCC, 2007). As a result,

intergovernmental negotiating committee for

framework convention on climate change (IPCC) was

established within the United Nations in December

1990; only 1 year and 4months later, in April

1992, the treaty on framework convention on

climate change was adopted exceptional speed for

an international treaty of this nature. They

treaty was signed by 55 countries at the “Earth

Summit (United Nations Conference on the

Environment and Development)” held in Rio de

Janeiro in June 1992. Against the back ground of

mounting international interest in the

environmental issue, the treaty was ratified by

the 50th country in December 1993, fulfilling the

conditions for its taking effects. The treaty

71

went into effects in March 1994. The principle

objectives of the treaty is to stabilize the

atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases to

such an extent as not to artificially influence

the climate, requiring industrial advanced

countries in particular to reduce their carbon

dioxide emissions back to their 1990 levels by

the end of the 1990s, (IPCC, 2007).

Kyoto Conference of Treaty for Framework Conference on

Climate Change

In compliances with this convention, countries

that are parties to the United Nation Framework

Convention on Climate Change convene to discuss

concrete measures to control global warming.

At the first session (COP 1), held in March in

Berlin, the Berlin mandate was adopted,

stipulating the adaptation of COP 3 of concrete

objectives policies and measures after the year

2000. From December 1 to 10, 1997 COP 3 was held

in Kyoto, there the Kyoto Protocol was adopted,

72

which demands 39 developed countries including

Japan, the United States and EU countries, reduces

the total emission of six greenhouse gases,

including carbon dioxide and methane (in carbon

dioxides equivalent) by 5% of the 1990 level

between 2008 and 2012, (IPCC, 2007).

COP 4 was held in November 1998, in Buenos Aires,

Argentina, where rules where formulated to

advances realization of the reduction objectives

set in the Kyoto protocol. These went into effects

after 90 days of their ratification by at least 55

countries, provided that the carbon dioxide

emission value of developed countries in 1990

(these rules where expected to take effect from,

2000), (IPCC, 2007).

o Kyoto Protocol Outline Target Year: 2008 – 2012

o Object Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFC2 SF6

o Reduction Objectives: Reduction by all

concerned developed countries of the total

emission value of CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

73

in carbon dioxide equivalent, by at least 50%

of the 1990 emission level (or the 1995 level

for CFCs).

o Main Countries Specific Reduction Percentages

Japan – 6%

USA – 7%

EU – 8%

(www.IPCC.org/climatechnagecontrolreport

2007)

o Remarks:

- Carbon dioxide absorbing sources, such as

tree planting and forests creation or

losses are taken into account in

measuring reduction changes.

74

- Emission limits may be negotiated among

developed countries.

- A reduction amount exceeding the amount

designated for a given target period may

be carried forward to the following

target period.

- Reduction may be promoted through

projects conducted jointly by developed

countries and by developed and developing

countries.

(www.IPCC.org/climatechnagecontrolreport2007)

75

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS, PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

4.1 Introduction

This aspect of the study presents and analyse

the data gathered. The analysis will be done

immediately after the presentation of the

results and discussion of the findings follows.

The nature of the presentation and why a

particular statistical descriptive method was

used for the presentation where stated on the

methodology in chapter one.

4.2 Data Presentation and Analysis

The data gathered from the two meteorological

stations (i.e. IAR and MAKIA) in the two local

government area under study are presented in a

tabular form with relevant columns and rows all

indicating each element to be used in the study

and their equivalent years. The figure that

76

follows the table are the elements to be studied

in a more reasonable and readable manner for

better discussion of the findings that comes

forth.

Thus, they are as follows;

77

Table 4.2.1: Showing Annual Rainfall Totals for the Kano

Urban Area (Tarauni) (1979 – 2009)

S/No.

Calendar Years Rainfall Totalfor each Year

(mm)1. 1979 579.62. 1980 787.63. 1981 560.44. 1982 552.15. 1983 431.56. 1984 507.37. 1985 796.28. 1986 605.99. 1987 476.310. 1988 974.911. 1989 598.212. 1990 540.513. 1991 904.814. 1992 918.915. 1993 802.016. 1994 778.417. 1995 555.718. 1996 766.419. 1997 663.720. 1998 1249.521. 1999 786.122. 2000 643.823. 2001 982.024. 2002 539.825. 2003 884.326. 2004 755.927. 2005 905.428. 2006 809.629. 2007 818.030. 2008 734.531. 2009 727.4

Tota 31 years

78

l 1Average for the Years under study =

730.21612mm

Source: Compiled from I.A.R Tarauni , Kano State (2010).

The figure above shows the rainfall record of Tarauni

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

79

Local Government Area of the Kano State from (1979 –

2009). It can be seen clearly that for most of the

years, the rainfall rarely reaches 1500mm and the

records for each individual year varies significantly

from each other. The lowest year of 1983 records the

least rainfall of 431.5mm for that year and the

highest recorded value being the year 1998, having

1249.5mm. A total mean of 730.216mm was derived from

the 31years under study.

80

In the figure above, from the year 1988 to 2009

indicates a change since a remarkable increase in

rainfall in the study area is observed, as the

rainfall records rarely falls below 500mm.

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

81

Table 4.2.2 Showing the Mean of Maximum

Temperature Record for Kano Urban Area

(Tarauni) (1979 – 2009)S/No.

Calendar Years Mean Per Annum(oC)

1 1979 33.252 1980 30.503 1981 30.754 1982 32.755 1983 32.456 1984 31.757 1985 32.258 1986 33.339 1987 33.58

10 1988 31.7511 1989 32.0012 1990 33.8313 1991 33.0014 1992 32.4215 1993 33.0816 1994 32.6717 1995 32.5818 1996 34.0819 1997 32.9220 1998 32.7521 1999 33.5022 2000 33.0823 2001 33.2524 2002 33.8325 2003 34.5026 2004 34.7527 2005 34.7528 2006 34.0029 2007 34.8330 2008 34.0031 2009 36.08Total

31 years

82

2Average for the Years understudy =33.169677oC

Source: Compiled from IAR Tarauni , Kano State (2010).

Years

The figure above shows the mean of maximum

temperature record for the study area. The figures

also varies significantly with the year 1980 having

30.50oC being the lowest maximum temperature recorded

and the year 2009 having 36.0oC being the highest

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

83

maximum temperature recorded. And a total mean of

33oC for the 31years under study was derived.

Hence, the value of 36oC indicates a change in

maximum temperature of the area since 1999 maximum

temperature were seen above 32oC and from the year

2000 temperature has been rising in the area.

84

Table 4.2.3 Showing the Mean of Minimum

Temperature Record for Kano Urban Area

(Tarauni) (1979 – 2009)S/No. Years Mean (oC)

1 1979 15.922 1980 19.083 1981 20.004 1982 18.585 1983 19.556 1984 17.087 1985 19.258 1986 19.589 1987 19.9210 1988 19.5811 1989 18.6712 1990 19.7513 1991 19.5814 1992 18.6715 1993 18.4216 1994 18.9217 1995 19.0818 1996 19.6719 1997 19.5020 1998 20.2521 1999 19.6722 2000 19.5023 2001 19.0824 2002 20.0025 2003 19.7526 2004 19.8327 2005 20.5028 2006 19.6729 2007 19.9230 2008 19.5831 2009 21.50

Total 31 years 3Average for the Years understudy =

19.356451oC

85

Source: Compiled from IAR Tarauni , Kano State (2010).

The figure above shows the mean of minimum

temperature record for the study area. It is also

clear that the record for each individual’s years

varies significantly for the 31 years under study.

The lowest record as seen is the year 1979 with

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

86

15.92oC and the highest record being 2009 with

21.50oC. A total mean for the whole years understudy

(i.e. 31years) was calculated to be 19oC.

From the year 1989 the minimum temperature has been

increasing as the value rarely fall below 19oC

indicating a change in the minimum temperature of the

study area.

Table 4.3.1: Showing Annual Rainfall Totals for the

Kano Urban Area (MAKIA) (1979 – 2009)

S/No. Calendar Years Rainfall Total (mm)

1. 1979 722.72. 1980 912.43. 1981 574.94. 1982 639.45. 1983 499.76. 1984 478.47. 1985 655.48. 1986 592.99. 1987 506.010. 1988 1047.911. 1989 700.212. 1990 565.213. 1991 1087.414. 1992 927.015. 1993 920.216. 1994 661.017. 1995 699.718. 1996 1134.219. 1997 1291.720. 1998 1872.021. 1999 1539.722. 2000 1139.0

87

23. 2001 1789.424. 2002 1033.725. 2003 1429.526. 2004 978.627. 2005 1376.328. 2006 1309.029. 2007 1114.730. 2008 1035.931. 2009 992.2Total

31 years

4Average for the Years understudy =

975.04193mm

Source: Compiled from NIMET MAKIA, Kano State (2010).

88

The figure above shows the total annual rainfall

figure for Ungogo Local Government Area of Kano

state. As seen above, the records for the total

years under study varies significantly, with the

year 1983 having the lowest record of 499.7mm,

while the year 1998 having 1872mm putting it at

the highest record. A mean for the total annual

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

89

records of rainfall for the whole 31 years was

calculated to be 975.04mm.

90

From the figure above, increase in the rainfall value

of the study area have been noticed, right from the

year 1997 the value readily fall below 900mm

indicating a change in the rainfall.

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

91

Table 4.3.2: Showing the Mean of Maximum

Temperature Record for Kano Urban Area

(MAKIA) (1979 – 2009)S/No.

Calendar Years Mean Per Annum (oC)

1 1979 33.52 1980 33.43 1981 33.44 1982 33.55 1983 33.46 1984 33.07 1985 33.18 1986 33.69 1987 34.110 1988 32.811 1989 32.312 1990 34.313 1991 33.214 1992 32.515 1993 33.216 1994 34.217 1995 33.818 1996 33.719 1997 33.720 1998 32.721 1999 33.622 2000 33.323 2001 32.224 2002 32.925 2003 33.326 2004 34.727 2005 34.428 2006 33.329 2007 33.630 2008 33.431 2009 34.5

92

Total

31 years

5Average for the Years understudy =33.438709oC

Source: Compiled from NIMET MAKIA, Kano State (2010).

The figure above shows the means of maximum

temperature record for the study area. It is also

clearly seen that the records for each individual

years of the maximum temperature varies

significantly, with the year 2001 having the lowest

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

93

record of 32.2oC while the year 2004 having the

highest record of 34.7oC. A total mean for the years

of the study area’s maximum temperature was

calculated to be 33.4oC.

From the year 2003, the value of maximum temperature

rarely falls below 33.4oC indicating a change in it

as it keeps on increasing.

94

Table 4.2.3: Showing the Mean of Minimum

Temperature Record for Kano Urban Area

(MAKIA) (1979 – 2009)S/No. Years Mean (oC)

1 1979 20.12 1980 19.83 1981 19.64 1982 20.05 1983 20.06 1984 20.57 1985 20.48 1986 20.49 1987 20.710 1988 20.211 1989 18.812 1990 20.213 1991 19.914 1992 19.415 1993 19.516 1994 20.217 1995 20.018 1996 19.719 1997 20.320 1998 21.021 1999 20.322 2000 19.323 2001 18.724 2002 19.825 2003 20.026 2004 20.227 2005 19.928 2006 21.229 2007 20.030 2008 20.431 2009 21.0

Total 31 years6Average for the Years understudy =

20.048387oC

95

Source: Compiled from NIMET MAKIA, Kano State (2010).

The figure above shows the mean of minimum

temperature record for Ungogo Local Government Area

of Kano state, which also shows a significant

variability in its records for each individual year.

The year 2001 has the lowest record of 18.7OC minimum

temperature while the year 2006 has the highest

record of 21.2oC minimum temperature and a mean for

the total years was calculated to be 20.04oC.

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

96

From the figure above, the records have been unevenly

fluctuating throughout the period of study. But known

the less, the nature of the figure also shows a

reasonable increase as the year 2001 marked the

period of low minimum temperature record for the

study area and to date it have been increasing,

indicating a change .

97

4.3 Discussion of Findings

The nature, pattern and characteristics of

rainfall, temperature and other elements of the

climate in this region are tropical continental

north wet and dry with some places that are in

it fringes experiencing the Sahel climate. For

most part of the year it is hot, with most

months of the year particularly before the rainy

seasons, have temperatures as high as 30oC, and

the climatic type experiences harmattan from

December to February and temperature are then

lower. The rainfall rarely exceeds 1500mm as its

peak.

The analysis of each elements presented above

indicates that there is a reasonable changes of

pattern and distribution of climatic elements

experience in the two local government area

under study, the nature of rainfall in figure 7

for the first decade is generally lower compared

to the second and third decades, which

98

experiences a very much rainfall, as it even

records the year (i.e. 1998) with the highest

peak of rainfall that is >1000mm. Hence, the

climatic change effect in times of rainfall

indicates an increasing rainfall to the region.

Figure 10, also follows the same pattern, with

its first decades recording lower rainfall when

related to the second and third decades

respectively. The second decade rainfall records

seems to increase while the third decade

generally experiences a much more rainfall, with

the year (1998) being the peak of more than

1500mm. Hence, the climatic change effect in

times of rainfall also indicates an increasing

rainfall.

The temperature for both areas under study

follows the same pattern as the maximum and

minimum temperature increases from first decade

to third decade. The third decade with year

(2009) in figure 8 records the highest maximum

99

temperature of (33oC) for the region and the year

(2009) in figure 9 records the highest minimum

temperature of (19oC) for the same region

respectively.

Figure 11 which is the maximum temperature

records for that region also indicates an

increase from the first to third decade, with

the year (2004) under the third decade recording

the highest maximum temperature of (34.7oC) and

the year (2007) of figure 12 indicating the year

with the highest record of minimum temperature

of (21.2oC) for the region. Thus, the climatic

change effect in times of temperature is also

that of increasing temperature.

Therefore, a vivid comparison of both regions

indicates clearly that the Ungogo Local government

Area experiences a higher rainfall than the Tarauni

Local Government, as shown below;

The Average for the

Rainfall Records of

The Average for the

Rainfall Records of

100

Ungogo for 31 years Tarauni for 31 years975.04mm 730.21mm

In all, this justify the hypothesis stating that

the rainfall of Kano Urban Area has drastically

decrease in its quantity and duration void,

while affirming the hypothesis stating that the

temperature of Kano Urban Area has double,

correct.

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

5.1 Summary

The topic “An Appraisal of the Rainfall and

Temperature Variables as Evidences of Climate

Change in Kano Area” was carried out on a due

research procedure to include, chapter one which

further entails introduction, research problem,

aims and objectives, significant of the study,

research hypothesis, scope and limitation,

research methodology, and definition of key

101

terms. Chapter two is the geography of the study

area and it looks into location and position,

geology, relief, climate, vegetation, soil,

economy and population of the study area.

Chapter three is the literature review. Chapter

four presents the data and their analysis, while

chapter five summaries, stipulate some

recommendations and conclude the topic.

5.2 Recommendations

If existing or not, environmental agencies

should setup committees that would go round in

order to inspect if the discharge rate of

international standard for emission of gases are

met and if where necessary should encourage

recycling of materials and products by this

industries and other emission dischargers.

Mitigation measures such as aforestation, good

environmental practises, pollution reduction,

102

should be encouraged by government to its

populace.

Adaptive mechanism should be adopted in places

where climate change is adversely affecting, to

limit some of its effects.

People should be enlightened on the effects held

by climate change in various communication media

in order to avoid the discharge of unfriendly

gases/materials into the atmosphere.

And finally, government should make available,

research institutes for student utility.

5.3 Conclusion

The following conclusions are drawn from this study;

i) The climate change effect to rainfall in Kano

Urban Area does not decreases but rather

increases.

ii) The climate change effect to temperature in

Kano urban area is that of increment.

103

iii) The study area experiences an uneven

distribution of rainfall but follows the same

patterns of change which is increasing from

the last three decades to present time.

iv) And finally, the Ungogo Local Government

Area experience more rainfall and temperature

than the Tarauni Local Government Area of Kano

metropolitan.

104

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APPENDIX I

Methods of Determination of Average for theYears Understudy

1

2 33.169

677oC

3 19.35646

1oC

4

5 33.4387

09oC

6 20.048387o

C

113