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The PDF of my speech at PICNIC 2009 in Amsterdam, see http://www.picnicnetwork.org/page/53112/en Key points: * Social Networks are the Next Broadcasters * The world's OS is changing: from closed to open * What does a Social OS look like? * Copyright Gridlock * The global social brain * Socially augmented reality * The extreme reputation economy... and much more
Citation preview
The next 5 years in Social Media
‣ Futurist‣ Strategist‣ Author & Bloggerwww.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard
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First: a big “Thank You” to everyone in my NetworkMost of what I ‘know’ you have given to me.
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Knowledge grows when shared
The World’s Operating System is Morphing
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Not Social
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Not Social
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SocialBusiness Marketing
AdvertisingContent & Media
CommunicationEducation
Politics
Not Social
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Social
A new, social OS
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Meet the New BroadcastersPeer
A fundamental Shift: Closed to Open
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EducationTelecommunication
Media & Content
Business
Energy
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Education
TelecommunicationMedia & Content
Business
Energy
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Open....is a real challengeThe Desire for Control is ingrained in our genes, our lives, our education
Open can mean out-of-control & chaoticOpenness can create risk.
Open may feel unsafe.
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The Degree of Openness and your Revenue Growth Rate
will be directly related
Guess what:
Anything ‘Social’ must be
Open.12
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12 Months: Total Copyright Gridlock
12-24 Months: Resistance to Change retires!
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Source: FT.com ‘claws and effect’
3-5 years: Ownership will matter a
lot less, Mind- and Market- share will matter a lot
more15
2-3 Years: the global, social ‘Brain’
Real-Time Reviews
Geotagging
Status Updates
Pictures & Video
Uploading
Augmented Reality
Bookmark- Sharing
Life-streaming
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5 years: 1/3 of the population will engage
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18 months: Socially Augmented Reality
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Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
2 years: the cost of staying in touch drops towards zero
Next 18 Months: real-time, social, mobile: Feedback, Rating, Comments, Tagging...
Source: trendwatching.com
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The absence of accurate, real-time and verified data about you or your business may soon mean that you virtually don’t exist
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Extreme Reputation Economy
2 years: Social Business... or none
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12 months: Social Media is CRM
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Social Business =Trust Osmosis
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Trust
Within 12-24 Months: intelligent, automated Social ‘Agents’
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The Semantic Web
12 months: Privacy becomes an action we must take
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12-18 Months: Digital Jet Lag becomes a serious issue
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Curation & Filtering becomes a huge business
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2 years: Social ‘Books’
CuratedInteractive
Real-timeCommons-owned
ConnectedPeer-reviewed
Non-Linear
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The cult(ure) of API is exploding
3 years: Social Capital will be become as important as actual money.
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Social Capital Example
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3 years: Social Advertising = 30% of digital
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Adios to ‘disconnected’ Advertising
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18 months: much smarter, social advertising
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2 years: one-way communications from a non-trusted source are 99%
useless
Inspired by trendwatching.com
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Abundance of...Many new Products &
Services Trusted Opinions
Content ConTEXT & Trusted Filters
Connectivity Private Spaces
Machine Intelligence Human Ingenuity & Creativity
Numbers of ‘Connections’ Actual Relationships
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Scarcity of....T h e F u t u r e o f S o c i a l M e d i a
2-5 years: virtual venues, telepresence & holography
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3-5 years: 30% Freemium in most ‘Content’ Industries
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• Behavior, habit & culture changes always come first
• Monetization is a possible consequence (not a starting point)
• Every large and engaged audience can be turned into
money.
About Social Media Monetization
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Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009
Expect radical habit changes when the technology actually works
REVENUE
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• email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com• twitter.com/gleonhard• facebook: gleonhard• more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks for listening!
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