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Presentation held by Author & Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard in April 2009 at the european television and media management academy (etma) in Strasbourg, France.
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★www.mediafuturist.com
★www.music20thebook.com
★www.gerdtube.com & .net
The Future of MediaDigital media business and broadcasting -
opportunities, trends and scenarios
The challenge: New Models!
Was Is 2 years 5 years
Content Consumption (all)Revenue PotentialSuccess with Traditional Content Models
The crisis of the Content Business
•Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly
growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model
(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)• Broadband culture drives further commodization•What used to be paid for is now often free•Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for
the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
But this is not about technology...
Emerging cultural practicesNew business models
The Age of Collaboration
The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
Copy Economy
Access / Usage / Sharing
Economy
All of a sudden
MEDIA &
ENTER-TAIN-MENT
COMMU-
NICATION &
TELE-COM
ADVER-TISING
CONTENTSEARCH
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Study
Huge potential - once licensing issues are
solved
Bundles and FlatRates will drive this
MUCH bigger potential (imho)
Despite all the current gloom & fear:
The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Starting in 2009:•Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers•Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps
•Over-the top layers (search, social media...) will come down, telecoms will move up!
2010: ‘Telecom’ and Media = TeleMedia
Data Pipe
Content Pipe
Experience PlatformService Pipe
Media will follow the switch from Closed to Open
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Was Is Soon The Future
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging
Value of ‘a Copy’
Value of ContextValue of Experience
Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging
The Age of Collaboration:
Egosystem becomes
Ecosystem
Digital Content Trends
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Source: The Standard
TOTAL Mobility EverywhereCONSTANT Peering and Connecting
DEEP Oceans of Content & Information
•Straight to Digital Content•Straight to Bundled Access•Straight to Mobile•Straight to next-gen Advertising
Remixed and User-made Content: 50% of consumption by 2015?
The Future of Content: Copy $ down, Attention $$ up
0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues
$3 per app to do what people would do for free,
anyway: listen to their music A great alternative to
getting Radio-Play (i.e. NetPlay)
A great way to sell concert tickets and offer other
location-based services A direct line of
communication - from band to fan - is worth Gold
This is where Content resides now...
The Future of Content is in
the Cloud and the
Crowd
•Collaborative Revenue Models
•The joint development of New Generatives based on Open Access
Media $$$: no longer about Distribution
A good example of how not to do this...
Listening, Reading or Watching =
Keeping, Copying & Sharing
‘Free’
‘Free’
Content on the Internet will be licensed like we license Radio & TV, today - starting with Music
•Online access = content access•Music access = payment included
•Create a new ecosystem on-top!
Permission, accounting and... compensating
The Printing Press brought us
CopyrightThe Internet brings
us Usage-Rights
Google & Free Music in China•Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! •Unlimited, unprotected downloads•Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads• In China, little ‘cannibalization’ concerns•Google is willing to ‘lubricate’• Industry willing because: China is ‘lost’ for
traditional Copyright
New Data Economy
New Content
Economy
Next Generation ‘Advertising’
In this world, Permission, Attention and Trust leads to Content’s Remuneration
Questioning assumptions
So should we control what People do online in order to protect a traditional business model?
‘New Money’ Examples
Social Media is becoming... CRM!
Advertising...?
The new Generatives of Contentinfluenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...
T r u s tImmediacy
IndividualizationPackagingSelection / Filtering
ConvenienceConversation
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Was Is Soon The Future
Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)
Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention
Example: the difference between
iStockphoto photos are purchased because of:• Much better metadata.• Better findability.• Faster service.• Low & attractive price-points
New Generatives and The Future of Television
The TV experience is becoming unified across all screens
What’s new about that?•Your own, unique selection of add-ons, widgets and applications on all platforms
•This TV knows who you are!
And how will we experience all this?
...the Output (i.e. publish, re-mix, co-create, life-stream...)the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...)... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)
The Sharing Economy Logic
Welcome to the Culture of Collaboration•Collaborative value creation: new $$$ together
•Make Money around the content
•Compensation not Control
‘Free’ gets my Attention...
Merit and Trust gets my Money.
Please talk back★ email me at [email protected]★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks for listening!