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Futurist Gerd Leonhard's 2007 Presentation on the Future of Radio
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Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd LeonhardPresentation at RadioDays 2007
Future or no future for radio?
New book out next week:Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
www.mediafuturist.com
1Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio today: competition coming from all sides
Ipod
iphone
Car Audio Systems
Mobile Music
Wimax Music
Podcasts
Social Networks and Blogs
Satellite Radio
What’s good about all this: Choice
What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice
2Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Across the world, 1.1 Billion People use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion use Mobile Phones
So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future, and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio)
3Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The Net Generation:
I program my media - it does not program me!
4Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84The key drivers of Change• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)
• Total Fragmentation of the Audiences
• Globalization (and localization)
• Convergence
5Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84
6Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84
7Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
W e a r e h e a d i n g i n t o a a c c e l e r a t i n g c o n v e r g e n c e o f A u d i o a n d V i d e o .
8Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84A few shocking facts from the U.S.
9Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
In the US: tuning out of Radio is guaranteed
10Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio ad revenues are not going away - they just won’t be growing.
11Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
and then comes...
12Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84
‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more13Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Remember when Radio had a
Monopoly in Attention?
14Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
three
15Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where you simply put all the stations that you
want to listen to.A canvas that you can always have with you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter
how you receive the content.
Radio fills the need to filter Choice.
16Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Consumers are, now more than ever before, seeking consolidated, trustworthy content, recognition and community - even more when it comes to mobile and Internet entertainment
This is still the biggest opportunity in Radio.
17Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
New technologies often disrupt ecosystems but always make the market bigger
18Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible - DRM is the past
• Music as a service will become a default setting, and the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending
• Creation of new revenue flows will be more important than controlling distribution
• The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining more power by the minute
• Music licensing will be drastically simplified
The De-Walling:
Isn’t Radio the definition of Music as a Service?
19Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks to the Net Generation & the Digital Natives,
Social Networks on the Internet are the
Next Radio20Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.
21Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
T h e P e o p l e f o r m e r l y
k n o w n a s L i s t e n e r s
( a k a C o n s u m e r s )
22Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
T h e M e d i u m f o r m e r l y
k n o w n a s R a d i o
23Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
S o o n , m o s t o f t h e m w i l l
g e t m o s t o f t h e i r ‘ R a d i o ’
v i a a n y d i g i t a l n e t w o r k
- t h e I n t e r n e t d o m i n a t e s24Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Why is your station not broadcasting on Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?
25Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
In all Media, Push is becoming Pull
Because
26Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84Just different words for the same thing...
BroadcastingStreamingPublic PerformanceListening
Tubesocking Playlisting Streamripping Podcatching Buffering Caching Renting
DownloadCopyDigital Phonographic Delivery (DPD)
27Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The most important development in the Context of Radio Licensing is The Flat Rate for Digital Music
28Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The Net Generation will not continue to pay a public Radio or TV License without archiving, time-shifting, place-shifting and device shifting - i.e. with build-in DELIVERY options
And for Public Radio
29Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The Reality is:
• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine• Digital Radio IS Distribution• From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio
MUST offer time / place / device shifting
which is... Distribution• Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader
30Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The bottom line:In media, Friction is now
Fiction31Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Very soon - listening IS receiving
32Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio is FreeRecords / CDs are not
If the Internet is the New Radio -
are Copies are ‘free’ ?
A Logic Challenge
33Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84EU Radio in 3-5 years
• 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50% converged with the Net
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way• Video and Audio converge• Community features are a standard• Geography fades, borders become soft• License is both questioned and then expanded
(based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)• Advertising2.0 emerges• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand
34Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84EU Radio in 10 years
• The term “Radio” simply refers to ‘curated programming’
• Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge digital library
• The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen versus own) distinction is over
• Everything is on demand - few or nothing remains scheduled
35Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The trigger factors:
• Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere• WiBro in the car• 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully
deployed• Radios with WLAN chips• Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)• Mobile computing devices that talk
effortlessly to each other• Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control
How long?
36Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84What is good about Radio?
• Free or feels like free• Ubiquitous• Easy to use for anyone• Does not require engagement• Trusted, professional curators• Known brands• Local context• Strong tradition• Great way to discover music
What is good about Audio on the Internet?
****** *******
*********
*** **37Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio’s Future is on the Internet, with the Net Generation, and with fully integrated Content Delivery
38Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84The 5 Inevitables
1.Radio must support time-shifting
2.Radio must support space-shifting
3.Radio must support sharing
4.Radio must support interactivity
5.Radio must support community
39Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy
40Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84This is where the growth is
41Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Getting (and keeping) attention• Trust• Influence• Reputation
The new currencies in Media
42Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
And advertising follows the trends of mass-personalizationSouce: Booz Hamilton Report
43Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
F r o m I m p r e s s i o n t o R e l e v a n c e
44Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84Integrate the audience! Provide a platform!
The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS)
45Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
You must take Radio’s walls down, too:• Archive Access• Web-based access on all platforms• Radio as social medium
Don’t hide behind any wall.
46Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist
Changes in the content industries
Content 1.0 Content 2.0Distribution Attention
Shelf Space Mind-share
Mass Marketing Monolog
Niche Marketing Dialog
Control Influence & Reputation
Control Attention & Trust
47Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84So if I ran the circus, I would...• Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows
via embedded players), turn them into channels on social networks
• Turn my listeners into active network members, roll out Engagement programs
• Offer archives of everything, no matter what• Mobilize my radio station• Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop
licensing• Lobby for a digital music flat rate• Push converged service: audio, video, text• Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE
48Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Thanks for listening
New book out next week:Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
www.mediafuturist.com
49Tuesday, March 4, 2008