Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers... and the Future of Broadcasting

Presentation at NPOX 2008November 17 2008by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Remember?


How life changes with more bandwidth!

We often overestimate how quickly change will happen

We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes

when it does happen


12-18 months for some very very drastic changes!


Source: kk.org


But: this is not about technology

Emerging Cultural Practices



Broadband Culture


!If you want to learn how to swim you’ll have to get wet!


A few shocking facts from the U.S.


The Digital Natives: Internet over TV


The Internet takes time away from all other Media


What to do? If the future

audience migrates to

the Internet then you

must BECOME the

Internet for them!


Who is the DJ?

Remember when you had a

Monopoly in Attention?


So what are those practices?

• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]

• I want it how and where I want it

[place-shifting]

• I want to be able to influence, talk back,

determine [control-shifting]

• I want real value for my money - or else...

[money-shifting]

• I want real value for my attention - or else...

[attention-shifting]

Emerging cultural practices...


To summarize


I program my media - it does not program me!


A huge challenge


Because

In all Media, Push is

becoming Pull


Broadband Consequences

Now we need

•Filters

•Curators

•Context

•Relevance

•Merit

• Humanness


Are you...?


The Future: more and more fragmentation.. and (Re)-Aggregation


Source: Flickr hillarylmrore

LifeContent Media

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Serious role changes


Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic


Once technology becomes dead-simple...


Next:


Expect big changes when things actually work!


Mainstream Media and the ‘Wisdom of the Crowds’


The public TV / Radio license and... Users willing to pay $$ for Google...?


Why?

Finding and being Found.Sharing.Communicating.Connecting


Sharing is the key


Content UsersContent Creators

Listeners

Viewers

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content: UGC is a MAJOR force


People now pay more to express themselves, and less to consume

Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/


Crowd + Cloud = Serious Potential


http://flickr.com/photos/inweaknessbe/

No archive... no attention!


Does this worry you?



Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: The key is to offer valuable intangibles:

1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery

2. Personalization - tailored just for you... !MeCast"

3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance

4. Authenticity - making sure it"s the real thing

5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however

6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging

7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)

8. Findability & Curation


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes

0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

WasIs

SoonNear Future

Mid-term Future

Copy Based Revenues

Attention Based Revenues


Users =

= Users


This is over


Moving from take-down to permission, from NO to YES

Rights Societies!


Be trusted or... Perish!


This will NOT work in the Future

A World of No becomes a World of Yes


Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we think about:

• Privacy• Authority• Ownership / Copyright• ‘Selling’ (and Marketing)• Work• Education


Put yourself in the middle of all of it!

Broadcaster


Your TV

Your Radio

I m a g i n e


Imagine a multi platform multi device Google Content Reader:

Broadcasters fill the need for Trust, for

filtering Choice, for

Curation


Social Networks are

the

Next Broad-casters


EU Broadcasting in 3-5 years

• 100% digital and fully converged with the Internet

• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way we want

• Video and Audio converging

• Community features at the center

• Geography fades, borders become soft

• Radio license is first questioned and then

expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)

• Advertising 2.0 emerges as major funding option

• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand


Some trigger factors:

!Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere

!WiBro in the car

!4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed

!Radios with WLAN chips

!Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)

!Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly to each other

!Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control

!Everyone networked


The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable

+ =

+ =

~1910

~2009?


The 6 Inevitables

1. Broadcasting must support time-shifting

2. Broadcasting must support space-shifting

3. Broadcasting must support sharing

4. Broadcasting must support interactivity

5. Broadcasting must support community

6. Broadband must return to be ‘social media’


Summary: DO


The dangers of an open,

shared and connected

ecosystem will always be less

than those of a closed &

controlled ecosystem


! Email me at [email protected]

! Download this presentation at www.mediafuturist.com

! Lifestream at www.gerdstream.com

! Twitter.com: gleonhard

Thanks for listening!