The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Future of Media and Content

Presentation at TIME 2008 December 2, 2008Istanbul, TurkeyGerd Leonhard

www.mediafuturist.com

http://www.mediafuturist.com



Telecom

Content

LegislationGovernmentRegulation

Was


Telecom Content

LegislationGovernmentRegulation

The Users

fka Consumers

Will be...


Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,

is the key to sustainable growth

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Mutual Interest - the Keyword

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3G Wireless Futures

Without 3G

With 3 G

+ Wifi / Wimax

Ability to connect * and INTERACTAbility to share EVERYTHINGHunger for content


The difference between dial-up, fixed and low-bandwidth Internet and

high-speed, mobile Internet is even bigger than going from offline to

online, to begin with.

100 : 1

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The challenge: New Models!

Was Is 2 years 5 years

Content Consumption (all)Revenue PotentialSuccess with Traditional Content Models


A very serious change - and huge opportunity!

Copy Economy

Access / Usage / Sharing Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media FuturistSharing is the key driver


But this is not about technology...

Emerging cultural practicesNew business models

The Age of Collaboration


Today 2-3 years 5-7 years

225%

150%

120%

90%

60%

37%

Turkey Internet PenetrationTurkey Mobile Penetration

Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required


Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required

Today 2-3 years 5-7 yearsSharing Co-Creation


The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$


Truly connected means...

We can find out ...anythingWe decide who gets to market to us

Niches are the new hitsWe find out we can actually create things, too!

We collaborate to get very large jobs done, togetherWe collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm

We can serve the world (and vice versa)


The Future: connecting the users is the key to success

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The crisis of the Content Business

•Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly

growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model

(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)• Broadband culture drives further commodization•What used to be paid for is now often free•Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for

the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition• There is more content consumption than ever before -

but where is the ‘new money’?


The lesson: You’ll have to get wet if you want to

learnhow to swim.


The new ways of making money with Content are going to be quite

unlike the traditional ways

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Freemium


The new ways of making money with Communications are going to be

drastically expanded from the traditional ways


The next SMS is

a) Contentb) Social

Communication around Content (Social Media)


The new ways of Advertising are

going to be totally unlike the traditional

ways


Next Generation Advertising


Drastic role changes are imminent.

Data Pipe

Content Pipe

Experience PlatformService Pipe


Advertising Content

Communications


We cannot

wall-in ourContent in this future


We cannot

generate enoughnew values without Content


Disruption

Reinvention

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Copyright DilemmaCopy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Copyright DilemmaRight


Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$


• Is the quest for Control realistic? • Will it make Money?• Will it be fair and equitable?• Will it create a Culture & Society

in which we will want to live in?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Stop this?


The opportunity


The past: making your customers angry


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable

+ =

+

=

~1910

~2009?


‣ Music is included in network access‣ Fees are paid but cross-subsidized‣ Music is cost-neutral to Networks‣ User pays ‘with attention’ or cash‣ Most uses will ‘will like free’‣ Data is shared with content owners‣ Multiple upsell options can unfold‣ Rightholders get paid for each use

The logic

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ecosystem: Example: Music

Bundled Music, Feels Like Free, Unlimited, no DRM, Streams & Downloads

* followed by other Content!

Live Recordings on-demand

High-definition offerings

Video, Games, Interactive

Preferred access (fans)

Merchandising

Extra Community Services


Command & Controlbecomes

Coordinate & Cultivate*Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”

Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >>


More access = More use of Content


http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to make the users happy


In a networked culture,a world of NO permission

is a world of NO $


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)

Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)

Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & CurationNeed for Community of Content


It’s not the free copy that counts - it’s

everything around it!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control

http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/







Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Search IS Media.Media is Social.Search is Social.


Selling content: finding new money sources

20%

15%

35%

10%

20%

Next Generation Advertising FreemiumFlat Rates & Bundles New GenerativesSell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies)


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of Experiences

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Value: Meta-Content *aka Data

• User ratings & recommendations• User reviews• User tagging and annotating• User bookmarking• User sharing / forwarding• User editing / remixing• User republishing

Gerd Leonhard Media FuturistThe new Content Economy: the User is a major force


P e r m i s s i o n .

E n g a g e m e n t .

C o n v e r s a t i o n .

T h e F u t u r e .


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes

Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Copy Based RevenuesAttention Based Revenues


• Give Permission - and collect revenue shares


Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditizedthe solution is to offer valuable intangibles:

1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize

Telecom Content


TALK BACK:★ email me at [email protected]★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com★ Thought-Stream at

www.gerdstream.com

Thanks for listening!

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The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul