Strategic Foresight for Leadership

Futures Thinking & Strategic Visioning

Leading InsightsLeaders’ Institute of South Australia

tedxadelaide.com

bridge8.com.au

youtube.com/thebridge8youtube.com/technyouvids

@kristinalford

Climate

Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

Photo: mugfaker, Flickr

EducationExample: NAPLAN Testing

HealthExample: Royal Adelaide Hospital Relocation

Foresight Tools

‘I can give you the present. I don‘t know about the future, that’s such stuff and nonsense’

Tim Finn - Split Enz, ‘Stuff and Nonsense’

Individual

Collective

Interior Exterior

Intentional “I”Own thoughts,

beliefs and values

Culture “We”Family &

relationships

Behaviour “It”Skills and learned

behaviours, what we see

Systems “ITS”Political, legal,

technology, environment and

economic systems

Wilber, K 2001, A theory of everything: an integral vision for business, politics, science and spirituality, Shambhala, Boston.Wilber, K 2005, ‘Introduction to integral theory and practice: IOS Basic and the AQAL map’, in KBFS, vol. 3, pt 4.

‘Restless future burning bright, the past is holding on so tight’

Bernard Fanning, ‘Wish You Well’, Tea & Symphony, 2005

Causal Layered AnalysisLitany

• quantitative trends, problems, media

Social Causes• economic, cultural, political, historical

Structure / Worldviews• deeper social, linguistic and cultural

structures, values

Metaphor or Myth• underlying stories, collective archetypes,

unconscious, emotive

Inayatullah, S 2005, Questioning the future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation, 2nd edition, Tamkang University Press, Taiwan

Well, I’ve been thinking ‘bout the future, too young to pretend, such a waste to always look behind you, you should be looking straight ahead’

Jet, ‘Move On’, Get Born, 2003

Pull of the FutureCompeting images of the future

Map thePlausible

FuturePush of the FutureTrends and current drivers of changeEg New Technologies, Globalisation, Demographic shifts

Weight of the FutureDeep StructuresWhat is problematic to change?What should be carried through?

Inayatullah, S 2005, Questioning the future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation, 2nd edition, Tamkang University Press, Taiwan

Futures Triangle

Tibbs, H 2000, Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy, Global Business Network, March, accessed 3 May 2006, www.hardintibbs.com.

Contemplation + Action

Foresight requires both contemplation and action1 Reflectiveness is critical to generate insight, but these insights must also be linked to

action to effect change2

1. Dror, Y 2005, ‘Futures studies for contemplation and action’, in KBFS, vol. 3, pt 1.2. Brown A 1999, ‘Ten ways futurists can avoid being destroyed’, Futures Research Quarterly, Summer, pp 7-13 & Kahane, A 2001, ‘How to change the world: lessons for entrepreneurs from activities,’ Reflections vol. 2, no.3, pp.16-29.