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Ipsos MORI's briefing back for 2011 Scottish Labour Party Conference presented by Mark Diffley
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Scottish Labour Party Conference 2011An Ipsos MORI briefingOctober 2011Contacts:[email protected] 240 3269
Holyrood
Our latest poll found Labour trailing the SNP by 21 points in Holyrood voting intention
28%
13%
7%
49%
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
SNP
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
Others – 3%
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
May-07
2008 Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
May-11
Aug-11
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
49%
3%
Just under a year ago, Labour looked on course to regain power at Holyrood, but support has fallen considerably
28%
13%
Scottish Parliament ElectionResult
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
7%
Scottish Parliament ElectionResult
Source: Ipsos MORI
Labour’s share of voting intention has fallen by 13 points in less than a year
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
In the last year, Labour has lost support across all groups…
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+
Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
Lab SNP Con LibDem
…almost exclusively to the SNP
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, November 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Working Not working Retired Urban Rural
Percentage point change since November 2010 (+/-)
The challenge facing the new leader
Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister
28%
9%
62%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
SatisfiedDissatisfied
Don’t know
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister?
51%
32%
33%
26%
35%
30%
34%
34%
The new leader will have to do better than Iain Gray…
Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April2011
Alex Salmond
Annabel Goldie
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing their job as …?
Net satisfaction Don’t know
14%
38%
Iain Gray 33%
+2
-1
-8Tavish Scott 40%
+16
Data from April 2011
Q. Before this interview, how much, if anything, would you say you knew about Iain Gray? Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Iain Gray is doing his job as leader of the Scottish Labour Party?
58%18%
24%
…particularly if they are to engage with the party’s supporters
15%
43%23%
19%
Knowledge among Labour supporters
Base: 1,019 Scottish adults 18+, 14-18 April 2011
A great deal
A little
Heard of but knew nothing about
Never heard of them
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Satisfaction among Labour supporters
Data from April 2011
Westminster
Labour fair slightly better in Westminster voting intention, but still trail the SNP by 19 points
33%
15%
6%
42%
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
SNP
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
Others – 4%
Q. How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-05
May-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
2007 2008 Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Aug-11
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
Year
42%
4%
The party’s share of voting intention has fallen since the General Election
33%
15%
Base: All certain to vote – March 2005 (434); March 2006 (526); June 2006 (520); August (571); November 2009 (576); February 2010 (608); April 2010 (685); August 2010 (710); November 2010 (640); August 2011 (608)
Pre Aug 2009 – data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults face-to-face; Post Aug 2009 - Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
6%
General Election Result
General Election Result
49%
16%
35%
Almost half of Scots are dissatisfied with his performance as party leader, while only around a third are satisfied…
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party?
48%
44%
9%
35%
49%
16%
…and Ed still has some way to go to match the popularity of his predecessor in Scotland
Ed Miliband(August 2011)
% Don’t know% Satisfied % Dissatisfied
Gordon Brown(April 2010)
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 14-17 April 2011; 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party/Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI
36%
9%
55%
A considerable proportion of Labour supporters are dissatisfied with his performance
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as Leader of the Labour Party?
Important issues
31%
26%
20%
17%14%
12%
9%
7%
7%
33%
Unemployment is a particular concern for Labour supporters
Education/schools
Economy/economic situation
Unemployment/factory closure/ lack of industry
NHS/hospitals/health care
Immigration/immigrants (race relations)
Crime/law and order/ASB
Sectarianism
Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today?Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
(Most + others)
Scottish independence/devolution
Housing
Public spending cuts
Laboursupporters
28%
32%
22%
27%
17%
11%8%6%
8%
20%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011
Among Scots, the economy is the most important issue but concernabout unemployment has risen sharply since the election
NHS 17%
Education 26%
Crime 14%
Economy 33%
Unemployment 31%
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone
Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Public sector cuts 20%
Economic optimism
22%
32%
42%
Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects for the Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy
18%
30%
49%
UK economy Scottish economy
Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Improve
Stay the same
Worsen
Don’t know, 2%
Improve
Stay the same
Worsen
Don’t know, 4%
Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it is not as low as this time last year
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
UK economy Scotland's economy% Net
improve
-31%
-20%
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economyand half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI
UK General Election Comprehensive Spending Review
Scottish budget
approved
Scottish Parliament
Election
2815 15 24
48 53 44 33
Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters
Labour supporters are most pessimistic about the Scottish economy
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
Source: Ipsos MORI
% Improve % Worsen
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
Con Lab Lib SNP
And have consistently been the most pessimistic about the Scottish economy over the last year
% Net improve
-41%
-14%
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition of Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse over next 12 months?(% improve minus % worse)
Base: All asked about Scottish economy (509).Scottish adults 18+, 10-14 February 2011
UK General Election Comprehensive Spending Review
-5%
+5%
Scottish budget approved
Scottish Parliament election
Independence
66%
26%
8%
The majority of Scots support increased powers for the Scottish Parliament…
Support
Oppose
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with the proposal:
Undecided/ Don’t know
35%
58%
7%
Only a third of Scots support independence
Support
Oppose
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,002 Scottish adults, 18+, 25th-29th August 2011
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Undecided/ Don’t know
19%
80%
Just over half of Labour supports support more powers while the vast majority oppose independence
57%38%
Full fiscal powers Independence
Base: All Labour supporter in Scottish Parliament election (174). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,25-29 August 2011
Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Source: Ipsos MORI
SupportOppose
Support
Oppose
Undecided/ Don’t know – 5% Undecided/ Don’t know – 1%
The majority of Scots would like the referendum to be held earlier than the SNP plans
27%
37%
6%
28%
Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703).Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
As soon as possible
Within the next 2 years
Between 2 and 5 years from now
Never/shouldn’t be held
Don’t know – 3%
Q. When do you think the referendum should be held?
55%
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