Ensuring climate resilience of agro-ecosystems and sustainable management of

natural resources

Dr. Rachid MRABETResearch Director

INRA Rabat

Coping with Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region

MEETING FUTURE FOOD DEMAND THROUGH SCIENCE & INNOVATION

November 16, 2016

Setting the Scene: Geostrategic position in need of environmental

sustainability

Saudi ArabiaIran (Islamic Republic of)

United Arab EmiratesEgypt

IraqQatar

AlgeriaKuwait

MoroccoSudanOman

Syrian Arab RepublicTunisia

LebanonLibya

YemenJordan

BahrainPalestine

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

GDP Million Dollars ① At the crossroads of Europe, Africa and Asia. ② 14 million km2 of which more than 87 per cent is desert. ③471 millions inhabitants (6% of the world's population) – High Youth population (PGR=1.7).④ 4.5% of the world’s GDP.⑤ 60% of oil and 45% of natural gas reserves in the world.⑥ Great potential for the development of Concentrated Solar Power in the world.⑦ Home to important diverse landraces and wild relatives of major food crops.⑧ 1.2 percent of the world’s renewable water resources.

MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region and Heavy reliance on food import!

Wealth levels vary enormously across MENA

Setting the Scene: High food import and vulnerability in terms of food

security• 83,28 Millions Ha of agricultural Lands.

– Agriculture contributes 12% to the MENA economy;

– Limited cultivated lands;– Small farms (less than 5ha) are the

backbone.

• MENA is the most food import-dependent region in the world, and net food imports are projected to rise even further in the future– MENA countries import at least 50% of the

food calories they consume;– Largest cereal importer of the world;– Highly impacted by food price fluctuations;– Heavy reliance on global food markets to

meet domestic needs.

IFPRI, 2016

MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region and dependent on food import!

Setting the Scene: MENA is faced with a set of complex interrelated problems

①IPCC report (AR5) converges on an increase in time-space rainfall variations (heighten and worsen extreme climate extremes), sudden temperature variations and long period of droughts.

②Water scarcity presents an immediate threat to agricultural development and sustainability in MENA.

③Climate change brings new uncertainties, and adds new risks and changes to already existing risks.

Climate Change in MENA

According to IPCC computer modeling, an estimated additional 80 million to 100 million people will be exposed to water stress by 2025, putting more pressure on already depleted groundwater resources.

Kuwait United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia Tunisia Jordan

Morocco Egypt

Algeria Syria

Yemen

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Global Food Security Index (GFSI)

Setting the Scene: MENA region is a water & food insecurity hotspot area

SDGs in nexus

• World’s most water scarce and food-important dependent region

• Climate change regarded as a root cause in the resurgence of poverty, social vulnerability, conflicts and migration in recent years.

Climate-sensitive agriculture: MAJOR FARMING SYSTEMS OF THE MENA REGION

• Dryland farming is the major component of global crop production

• MENA is also pasture-based farming. Agro-ecosystems are in a dynamic state.

MENA Agricultural - food systems are fragile and complex

MENA specific treats to natural resources• Most of food production in MENA Countries is in

rainfed areas, accounting for 83% of seasonal crops’ area.– Rapid natural resource degradation and

desertification – Active drought, erosion and desertification

processes in agricultural, pasture and forest lands;– Most of the MENA soils exhibit low to very low soil

organic carbon (SOC) content (less than 1%).

• Climate change and population growth are jointly stretching the water demand-supply gap at alarming rates.– > 80% of water is allocated to agriculture.– Physical water scarcity & Groundwater depletion.– the lowest level of renewable water resources per

capita– the highest proportion of water withdrawals– Available renewable water will be as low as 500

cubic meter by 2050.

MENA is characterized by a large surface of irrigated soils, usually in flat areas (31 Mha) but prone to

salinization (16 Mha).

• 75% of MENA rural areas partially depend on livestock for livelihood, with 60% of income derived from pastoral & agro-pastoral sytems.– Meat and milk consumption will

increase by 104% and 82%, respectively.

• Urbanization is devastating good soils and lands (3% growth compared to world average of 2.2%).

MENA specific treats to natural resources

Arable land per capita will shrink to 0.12 Ha by 2050.

Intensification of cropping systems

MENA cereal yields are at 56% of the world average and at 25% of the yields attained in Europe.

Yield gaps of major food crops across regions

• A higher water use efficiency is required – Improved varieties– Sustainable and resilient

soil management– Supplemental irrigation – Reducing post- harvest

losses – etc

Licker et al. 2010.

CREATE GREATER RESILIEN

CE

Lack of Opportunities

& marketsResource scarcity & limitations

Poverty & social fragility

Degradation a mining of

natural resources

Population growth

Low resource use efficiency

Research, extension &

Arbitrary Policies

Food and input price

Livestock

Millennia of experience in managing, optimizing and thriving with water scarcity

MENA has run out of suitable land for expansion.

The scale of impacts that are expected from climate change is likely to be beyond the coping range of many communities and countries, and will

require additional adaptation efforts.

Mobilizing holistic approach for food security and sustainable agriculture intensification

in MENA• Agriculture, food and rural development are and will

remain a driving force for national and regional economies.

• Two main long-term goals for MENA agriculture:

• Achieve food security, improve human nutrition, create sustainable food consumption and production systems healthier population;

• Adapt to climate change, build inclusive and effective governance of agricultural and food systems and sustain natural resources Healthier ecosystems.Goals necessity for constructing more effective bridges between policy,

management, and science, as well as between the public and the private sectors.

Building a resilience strategy is a priority “no regret” action

Agricultural resilience pillars

• Desertification control and conservation and management of natural resources;

• Design and construct sustainable and diversified agricultural systems:– Improved and higher-performing crops and livestock; – Increasing the effectiveness of rainfall and improving water management;– Integrated crop-livestock production;– Pest and disease protection and forecasting.

• Efficient cycling of nutrients for long term-maintenance of soil fertility and crop productivity and reducing adverse environmental impacts;

• Biodiversity improvement, development and management for continuing adaptation and change of agro-ecosystems;

• Knowledge convergence and development;• Investment in research and innovation to bridge gaps.

Expanding human knowledge in order to meet human requirements in MENA

Integrative climate smart and environmentally sustainable technologies

• Enhancing and stabilizing soil resilience– Increasing soil organic carbon pool– Improving soil structure and biological properties– Restoring degraded soils– Strengthening elemental cycling

• Adopting eco-efficient agricultural systems– Conservation agriculture

• Integrated Nutrient Management• IPM• Disease suppressive soils

– Agroforestry and perennial crops– Comprehensive integrated crop-livestock-tree systems

• Increasing biodiversity– Soil biodiversity and communities– Plant biodiversity

• Improving Net Primary Productivity– Drought and salinity tolerant varieties– Species with deep roots and recalcitrant compounds

Expenditure on agricultural research and development (R&D) is typically low across the

MENA region

Collaborative Partnership on Agricultural resilience in MENA

① Commitment from all national and international stakeholders in the public, private and civil sectors to support the up-scaling of climate smart and environmentally sustainable technologies (CST) as food security and profitability options;

② Governments are called upon to create a conducive environment for the adoption and development of CST;

③ Governments are called upon to create enabling policy environment to allow investment financing, and technological development including private sector involvement in CST related value chains;

④ Mobilization and involvement of farmers and associations in new promotion and development pathways and foresight processes for advancing CST adoption and appropriation;

⑤ Build-up efficient and quality research and innovation system and provide system thinking forum to further embed CST in development contexts and constraining climate and global changes.

Many thanks for your Patience