Managing Agro-ecosystems under Global Environmental Change: Developing Strategies to Meet Challenges and Opportunities of CLIMATE CHANGE Meeting the Challenges

Managing Agro-ecosystems under Global Environmental

Change: Developing Strategies to Meet Challenges and

Opportunities of CLIMATE CHANGE

Meeting the Challenges Meeting the Challenges of a Rapidly Changing of a Rapidly Changing

Climate Policy Climate Policy EnvironmentEnvironment7-9 April 20097-9 April 2009Dennis OjimaDennis Ojima

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE

ENVIRONMENT

OUTLINEOUTLINE

•Climate Change Considerations

•Dealing with Multiple Stresses in addition to Climate Change

•Coping/Adaptation Strategies•Summary

Climate Change Climate Change ConsiderationsConsiderations

Global Temperature Trends 1880 to 2008Global Temperature Trends 1880 to 2008 5 warmest years: 2003, 2002,1998, 2007, 20055 warmest years: 2003, 2002,1998, 2007, 2005

Surface Temperature Anomaly Surface Temperature Anomaly (deg C)(deg C)

Base Period: 1951 to 1980Base Period: 1951 to 1980

IPCC 2007IPCC 2007

Warming significant hydroclimatic changes

-2.2 std devsLESS as snowfall

+1 std devMORE as snowfall

Knowles et al., in pressLess snow/more rain

Spring snowmelt-onset datesEarlier snowmelt runoff

Stewart et al., 2005

TRENDS (1950-97) in April 1 snow-water

content

Less spring snowpack

Mote, 2003

Earlier greenupCayan et al., 2001

TRENDS (1954-94) in Lilac first-bloom dates

“Duration of Snowpack”

Computed from UW’sVIC model daily INPUTS(Bales et al, in press)

Expected values of changes in FROZEN-SEASON LENGTH

25-50 days/year less in 2050 for ROMO

2025

2050Derived from monthly Derived from monthly IPCC GCM-grid pdfs, IPCC GCM-grid pdfs, and UW’s VIC model and UW’s VIC model

daily inputs, 1950-1999daily inputs, 1950-1999

Signals from nature


ENVIRONMENT

Jeremy Little / University of Washington

• Land Competition: Multiple demands are being exerted on the same land base

• Land Degradation: Climate impacts to Land Systems are emerging more rapidly than anticipated

• Sustainable Land Management: Adaptation and Mitigation actions of Land Systems need to be developed now

KEY CONSIDERATIONS


ENVIRONMENT

Impacts of Climate Change on Multiple Cropping Production Potential of Rain-fed Cereals

Climate change impacts are visualized using a normalized difference index. It is calculated by dividing the difference in cereal production capacity between future and current production potential by their sum.

Max-Planck Institute/ECHAM4 2080s

Agricultural Impacts are Heterogeneous

Phenology

Management practices, pests and diseases

Yields

Livestock

IPCC WGII Chapter 1, 2007

Climate Change is Already Here

Increasing Droughts and Floods

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 00

1 99 0 2 00 0 2 01 0 2 02 0 2 04 0 2 04 0 2 05 0

Year

Per

cent

age

R eliab ilityD em and m et

400

300

200

100

50O N D

MonthsJ F M A M J J A S

Run

off

(cfs

) CurrentGFDLMPIHC

Changes in Seasonality

Water Resources are Key

Strzepek et al.

Competing Demands Domestic Users

Ecosystem Services

Excess Soil Moisture Is Detrimental to Crops

Number of events causing damage to maize yields due to excess soil moisture conditions, averaged over all study sites, under current baseline (1951–1998) and climate change

conditions. Events causing a 20% simulated yield damage are comparable to the 1993 US Midwest floods (Rosenzweig 2001).

Pests May Surprise!

1998

19931985

1971

Over-wintering range of potato leafhopper under two doubled C02

climate change scenarios. (Stinner et al., 1989)

1 generation

2 generation

3 generation

4 generation

Range of expansion of soybean sudden death syndrome (Fusarium solani f.sp. glycines) in North America. (X.B. Yang).

Approximate distribution of European corn borer annual generations in the U.S. and Canada. (Mason, 1996)

GISS GFDL Present

Seasonal-to-interannual – e.g., El Nino*

Decadal-to-century**

Feb1998

Feb 2000

ENSO Uruguay

Baethgen, 2000

Risk of Current Climate Extremes is a Pathway to Climate Change

AVHRR

*Focus on Extreme events

Regional StakeholdersShort-term Decisions

Adaptation

**Focus on Mean changes

National PolicymakersGlobal Agreements,

Adaptation & Mitigation,World Food System

Ing. Juan Notaro, Uruguayan Minister of Agriculture in 1999/2000

"... The results of your work during the recent drought were useful for making both operational and political decisions.”

NASA IDS Project

Climate Change Climate Change ImpactsImpacts

• Modified vulnerability due to exposure to multiple stresses (e.g., O3 and warming)

• Plant and Animal production modified• Water use and quality impacted• Soil properties affected (eg, salinity, OM,

fertility, WHC)• Expansion of weeds, pests, and diseases • Change plant-animal communities.

Source: The Wildlife Society http://www.wildlife.org/policy

• Committed climate change in range of 0.5 to 1.5oC over the next century

• Time scale of mitigation strategies to take effect unknown

• Dealing with multiple stresses across different spatial and temporal scales

• Nature of impact/risks unclear in scope, scale and timing

CONTEXT FOR ADAPTATION


ENVIRONMENT

FIRE

Transportation

Growth

Drought

Decisions About ?

Baron

Policy Economics EnvironmentClimate

Social – CulturalTechnology Subsidies CRP Ethnicity Community

Crop Graze UrbanWildlands

CRP

Fert TransportEnergyHarvestPlowIrri

Farm-LevelEconomics

}{

{ }

Farm Enterprise/ Land Use

Land Management

EcosystemPlant

Production

WaterBudget

InorganicNutrients

Soil OrganicMatterLand Use

Decision-Making

Infrastructure

Household Decision-making

Political Economy, Institutions

Change Scenarios

Climate and other Environmental Influences

Land Use

Economy

Land Tenure

Ecosystem services

Cooperation/Enabling

Mechanisms

Demography

Mitigation

Adaptation Strategies (long-term)

Coping Tactics (short-term)

T1 Household goals, Initial conditions

Resilien

ce / Vu

lnerab

ility

Galvin, Boone, Ojima et al

ADAPTATION DESIGNADAPTATION DESIGN• Adaptive Management practices are local and

need to take into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems

• Use of appropriate scenarios and downscaling techniques of climate change effects

• Full risk/uncertainty assessments• Projects need to be linked to capacity building

& technology transfer• Co-development of an integrative

management plan should treat the system as a socio-ecological system

A Coping/Adaptation Assessment Cascade

a methodology to craft long-term (i.e., 25-40 years) continuously up-datable adaptation assessment/plans focused

on climate change including exacerbating stresses.

22

Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale

Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale

Develop the 4 Quad Scenarios with Drivers

Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses

Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses

Set the Time Scales visa Climate Conditions

Craft and Implement Long-Range Plan

Frame the

Downscale

4 Quad Scenarios

Set Time Scale

Controlling Projections

Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.)

Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.)

25-40 yr. Implementation Plan

Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate ProgressKey Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress

Track

Progress

A Coping/Adaptation Cascade

A Process to Craft a Long-Term (i.e., 25-40 years) Continuously Up-datable Adaptation Plan Focused on Climate Change with Exacerbating Stresses

Problem

27

Governance and Policy Actions

Soc

io-E

nvi

ron

men

tal

Pro

cess

es

GWGConc.GWGConc.

Processes Respond Rapidly

These Processes Respond very Slowly

Agg

ress

ive

Pol

icy

Act

ion

Wea

k t

o L

ittl

e P

olic

y A

ctio

n

“Lots” of Luck Scena`rio1.Scenario Details

2.3...n

Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details

2.3...n

“Get with it” Scenario1. Scenario Details

2.3...n

“Well just Delay” Scenario1. Scenario Details

2.3...n

4 Quad Scenario Framework

29

Working with Stakeholders, Try and Test Multiple Adaptation Options

ClimateScenarios

Interventions•Technologies•Management•Policies

5

4

3

2

1

SimulationModel

Analyze a wide range of alternatives and Possible impacts in different GCM and RCM climate scenarios

Inform Planning and Decision Making

PossibleOutcomes

• Managing for change (incl seasonal and extreme events) through adaptive management strategies

• Enhance resilience to changes• Manage to maintain soil organic matter, plant

cover, and water conservation• Managing with diversity (social-environmental)• Develop a strategy for evaluating management

practices including observations and experimental studies

COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR

SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

• Application of Adaptation Cascade in partnership with local communities, states, and other resource management entities

• Development of Adaptive management strategies to deal non-linearities of global change and multi-scaled stresses

• Developing technological, scientific, socio-economic tools for addressing adaptation needs

SUMMARY

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR

SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

THANK YOUTHANK YOU


ENVIRONMENT

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Managing Agro-ecosystems under Global Environmental Change: Developing Strategies to Meet Challenges and Opportunities of CLIMATE CHANGE Meeting the Challenges