Tham Dinh Du An Dau Tu

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Evaluate Investment

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<ul><li> 1. THM NH D N U T Bi c1 B qua nhng khi nim hn lm v nhng nh ngha cha ng bit bao ngn t hoa m, gy tranh ci v tn km nhiu giy mc, bn cht ch thc ca d n u t suy cho cng ch n gin l vic b ra nhng ng tin ngy hm nay k vng s thu c chng v trong tng lai.Dng tin chi ra hm nay l thc nhng dng tin s thu v trong tng lai mi ch l d on, hy cn l nhng con s v hn, i khi c gt gia rt p, nm yn lnh trn nhng trang giy trng m thi. Chnh v ci ngy mai cha bit y m ai cng t ra c l khi ngh v d n.Nhng tin t c tnh thi gian. Ti, bn, cc nh t bn v c B Ngoi chn qu na, ai cng mun nhn c ng tin chc chn ngy hm nay (ng tin an ton) hn l nhng ng tin khng chc chn (ng tin ri ro) vo nm sau.Mt khc, cc ngun lc lun hn hp ch khng phi l v tn. Thm nh, la chn v quyt nh u t vo mt d n cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi u t vo mt d n khc 2.C nh vy, d n khng c g l gh gm c m tri li, n cha ng nhng iu rt gn gi vi suy ngh t nhin ca tt c mi ngi. Nhng cu hi tht n gin v bnh thng nh vy s tr thnh ch dn dt cho cc tho lun ca chng ny.Do phm vi ca ch quyn sch, mt s ni dung su hn v thm nh d n s khng c dp cp n 3. Chng ny ch nhm1 Trch chng 12, sch: K ton qun tr (2003), NXB i hc Quc gia Tp. HCM, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th hai, cng tc gi. 2 Khoa hc kinh t suy n cng l khoa hc v s khan him cc ngun lc. Qu vy, nu ngun lc l v tn th s khng cn kinh t hc v tt nhin khng cn phi thm nh d n v c mn hc k ton qun tr ny, cng khng cn na. </li></ul><p> 2. Thm nh d n u ttp trung tho lun nhng vn k thut: tnh thi gian ca tin t; k thut chit khu dng tin; h thng cc ch tiu nh gi d n, x l lm pht, k thut phn tch ri ro ca d n. I. V sao tin t c tnh thi gian Mt ng tin c gi tr khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. Khong cch thi gian cng di v c hi sinh li cng cao th s khc bit trong gi tr gia hai thi im ca n cng ln. Qu vy, nu bn cho bn thn ca mnh mn s tin 50 ngn ng vo bui sng, n bui tra th nhn li 4. Lc y, 50 ngn l nh nhau, hay ni cch khc, bn khng thy c s khc bit no v gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Nhng nu bn mua c phiu ca Cng ty VaBiCo cch y hai nm vi gi 40 ngn ng mt c phiu, tt nhin mc ch mua (u t) l kim li, th li l cu chuyn khc. Sau khi mua, gi c phiu c lc tng cao hn 40 ngn, bn bo hy ch ln na kim li nhiu hn; c lc gi rt xung thp hn 40 ngn, bn hy vng n s ln tr li. Hm nay trn th trng gi ng 40 ngn, v cn tin nn bn mang i bn. Bn tng b ra 40 ngn ng cch y hai nm, by gi thu li cng ng 40 ngn ng. Lc ny, bn c ni l hu vn? Cu tr li chn hn l khng. V nh vy, bn tha nhn rng cng s tin 40 ngn ng, gi tr ca chng s khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. C t nht l ba l do sau y c th dng gii thch v tnh thi gian ca tin t 5. 3 C th tham kho cc sch (cng tc gi): Phn tch hot ng doanh nghip (2000)-NXB HQG, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th su; Phn tch qun tr ti chnh (2002)-NXB HQG, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th ba. 4 gi l bn thn m, ai n ly li. 5 Time value of moneyPrepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH25/18/2009 3. Thm nh d n u t 1.1 Chi ph c hi ca tinng tin lun c c hi sinh li, n c th dng u t v c li ngay lp tc. Ni theo cch hn lm l lun c chi ph c hi cho vic s dng tin 6. Khi bn u t vo c phiu cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi sinh li t vic u t mua t 7. Nu li sut tin gi ngn hng l 10% nm, vic u t c phiu VaBiCo trn y ti thiu cng lm bn mt i c hi kim c s tin li l 8 ngn (= 40 ngn 20%) nu bn khim tn, hoc c th ni l nht gan, chp nhn hng mt li sut thp nht bng cch gi tit kim ngn hng (cha tnh n li kp 8).Dng tin u t vo d n l vic hy sinh li ch ngy hm nay k vng vo nhng li ch ln hn ngy mai.Ngay c khi bn s dng tin cho tiu dng cng vy. Mt s tiu dng hin ti s em li cho bn tha dng sm hn v cao hn l s ch i dnh n tng lai! V nu bn chu nhn thm chic xe Spacy hm nay u t kim li v 3 nm sau chng l no cng ch l chic Spacy! 9 Bn phi c thng v s tr hon tiu dng ny, phn thng l li sut (hoc sut chit khu). S nghin cu phn k thut chit khu dng tin. 1.2 Tnh lm phtT ngy c in ko v nng thn, Ngoi mun mua mt my bm nc ti vn rau ca Ngoi. Vn rau tng mt thi nui con by gi nui chu ang hc i hc nm th ba ngnh k ton mt trng i hc danh gi Si Gn. Ngoi c 4 triu, gi my bm6 Chi ph c hi (opportunity cost) c dp cp Chng 2 Phn loi chi ph. 7 Xt bn cht kinh t, kinh doanh t ai v mua bn chng khon l hon ton ging nhau. Nhng ngi trung gian hng hu hng n thun trn th trng chng khon c gi bng ci tn rt p l "cc nh mi gii chng khon" (brokers), va trung gian va tham gia mua bn c gi l "cc nh u t chng khon" (dealers), nhng sao nhng vai tr nh vy trong lnh vc a c th gi l "c" v "k u c"? 8 Ni theo ngn ng bnh dn l: "li m li con". 9 Ni theo cch bnh dn l: sng trc kh sau hoc l kh trc sng sau. trn i, khng c g l sng trc ri sng sau c !Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH3 5/18/2009 4. Thm nh d n u t4,4 triu nn Ngoi khng tin. a chu cng "hin k" gi ngn hng mt nm sau tin mua my (li sut 10% nm). Khi Ngoi cm c 4,4 triu trong tay th gi my bm, c ngun gc nhp ngoi by gi tng hn 5 triu. Mt ln na Ngoi li khng tin. Ngoi li tip tc on lng ti tng gnh nc nh Ngoi tng quen chu ng sut mt i c cc, nhc nhn 10. an i, a chu "tr thc" ni rng d sao Ngoi cng li c 0,4 triu (?). Khng. Ngoi mt do phi ng mt th thu lm pht 11 m Ngoi no c bit bao gi. 1.3 Tnh ri ro Ai m bit c ngy sau ri s ra sao? 12 Mt ng tin s nhn c trong tng lai chc chn l khng c g chc chn c. Nhng ri ro ca thin tai hay chin tranh, s thay i th ch chnh sch hay nhng th lc d di ca th trng cnh tranh, trng thi nn kinh t tng trng hay suy thoi, ch trng chnh ph tip tc bo h hay m ra hi nhp, bnh yn hay khng hong v v vn nhng th rt kh nh lng khc, lun rnh rp. B ra ng vn trong hon cnh , ngi ta cn c mt phn thng b p 13. Vn khng phi l s ri ro, s th khng lm, m l chp nhn v nh i ri ro nh th no. Ri ro cng cao th phn thng i hi phi cng ln. Ngc li cng hon ton ng nh vy, li10Ngoi khng c dp nng cao "nng sut lao ng nng nghip", nn kinh t b qua c hi"kch cu" v gp phn "chuyn i c cu kinh t". D tnh nu c my bm, Ngoi s trngthm mt "cao" (n v o ca mt lung t khong 400 m2 ngoi thnh pha Ty TP.HCM) rau na v s mua mt tivi mu 14 inch xem ci lng, nhng c m bnh d khng thnh. 11Inflation tax. Mt nh lnh o phng Ty no tng ni rng, thu lm pht l mt loithu tn bo nht trong lch s nhn loi. Khi bn cm trong tay 1 triu ng m gi tr ca nnh 0,5 triu th bn "ng" thu lm pht ht mt na ri. chng li s lm pht, ngita khng ct tin "di gi" hay treo trn "ngn da" m phi a vo u t bng cch muatri phiu, c phiu, ti thiu l gi tit kim. Theo cch , nn kinh t s c vn hotng. Mt khi khng c g mua, ngi ta mua t th cng khng c g l c. 12Que sera sera 13Risk premium: ph thng ri ro.Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH45/18/2009 5. Thm nh d n u tnhun cng nhiu th ri ro cng lm (high return, high risk) tr thnh bi hc s ng u tin cho mi kha hc v qun tr kinh doanh. C ngi mua bt ng sn vi hy vng t li sut 30% nm, trong khi c ngi chp nhn gi tit kim ngn hng hng li sut 6% nm. C ngi u t chng khon cng ty li sut 20% nm th cng c ngi chn mua tri phiu chnh ph li sut 7% nm. Khng c g l c. l s sng phng ca th trng. C hi l nh nhau i vi tt c mi ngi 14. II. K thut chit khu dng tin C th ni rng chit khu dng tin l ci trc ca nn ti chnh hin i. N tr thnh mt kin thc cn bn khng ch dnh ring cho cc nh qun tr ti chnh m cn l ca bt k ai, bt k lnh vc hot ng no. Mt ch bn hng ch Bnh Ty cng tha bit rng cho vay tin vi mt li sut rt thp khi ch t bt k hp ng vi mt cng ty bo him nhn th. Trong mc ny, chng ta s nghin cu cc phng php chit khu dng tin cng nhng ng dng rt i thc ca chng. 2.1 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng Nu bn gi ngn hng 100 (n v tin), li sut 10% nm, mt nm sau bn s c: 110 = 100 + 100 10%= 100 (1 + 10%) Bn tip tc gi s tin 110 ngn hng, mt nm sau na bn s nhn c: 121 = 110 + 110 10%= 110 (1 + 10%) Thay 110 = 100 (1 + 10%), ta c th vit: 14Tr nhng k c c thng tin ni b. T nh cc v lnh o ca mt s tp on va ph sntrong thi gian gn y (M) hoc nhiu quan chc ngnh a chnh v qui hoch "chm im"tuyt i chnh xc trn tm bn s c cng khai vo tun ti (!).Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH5 5/18/2009 6. Thm nh d n u t121 = 100 (1 + 10%) (1 + 10%) = 100 (1 + 10%)2 khi qut, t:PV = 100FV2= 121r = 10%n=2 Ta c:FV2 = PV (1 + r)2 Tng t cho FV3, FV4, FV5,,v:FVn = P (1 + r)n cng thc (1) Trong , PV : gi tr s tin hin ti (present value) r: li sut (rate) n: s nm 15 (number) FVn :gi tr tng lai (future value) ca s tin PV sau n nm, vili sut l r, k ghp li (vo vn) l nm. V c bit, H s(1 + r)n, nhn t lm cho gi tr t PV bin thnh FVn chnh lgi tr tng lai ca 1 ng ng vi li sut l r, thi gian l n.(1+r)n cn c gi l h s tch ly hay h s li kp 16. V h s tch ly lun ln hn hoc bng 1 ( 1). Gi tr tng lai lun ln hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr hin ti. (Xem ph lc cc bng h s tch ly cui sch) Trong cng thc (1) v c cc cng thc tip theo ta thy c cc yu t: FV, PV, n, r. V d gi l "ton ti chnh", "chit khu dng tin" hay l g gh gm i na th vn l vic i tm gi tr cc yu t trn bng cc bi ton nhn chia, quy tc tam sut v cng n gin. 15C th ng dng vi k on l tun, thng, qu, 6 thng. Trong d n thng l nm. Mt lu khc l, n l k on, l khong cch thi gian ch khng phi l k hiu nm lch. 16Compounding factorPrepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 6 5/18/2009 7. Thm nh d n u tMt ln na, vn khng phi l tnh ton m l s vn dng chng nh th no trong i thc.Mt khc, tt c nhng g thuc v tnh ton c my tnh lm (to do), b no nh b ca con ngi ch dnh ngh (to think) m thi.ng lo lng cc cng thc! Tt c cc tnh ton trong chng ny (v c quyn sch) u c hng dn Excel. V d 12.1: Tnh gi tr tng lai FVnBn s c bao nhiu tin khi tt nghip i hc (4 nm) nu by gi (u nm th nht) bn mang 2 triu gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut c nh 10% nm.S tin 2 triu vi li sut 10% nm, sau thi gian 4 nm s tr thnh:FV = PV (1+r)nFV = 2(1+10%)4 = 2 1,46 = 2,92 triu ng(h s tch ly 1,46 c c ct 10% v hng 4 trong bng gi tr tng lai ca mt ng, phn ph lc cui sch) V d 12.2: Tnh li sut rLi sut no lm cho s tin 2 triu tr thnh 2,92 triu sau 4 nm? 2,92=2(1+r)4Vit cch khc: (1+r)= 4 1,46 =1,461/4=1,1Vy, r = 0,1 hay 10% V d 12.3: Tnh thi gian nPhi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam tng gp 2 ln so vi hin nay, nu Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH7 5/18/2009 8. Thm nh d n u tnn kinh t chng ta phn u gi c tc tng trng u hng nm l 7,2%? 17 p dng cng thc (1)2=(1+7,2%)n =(1,072)n Ly logarit 18 hai vLn 2 = n Ln 1,072 Suy raKt qu: phi mt n 10 nm. V d 12.4Tnh thi gian n (tip theo) Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam bng vi mc nm 1995 ca mt s quc gia? V d: GDP bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam hin nay l 450 la, v phn u t tc tng trng hng nm l 7,5% th cn lu lm. Bn s nh Excel tnh nhanh chng cho bn kt qu bun sau y 19. 17Cha tnh n tc tng dn s. 18Lgarit t nhin (Natural logarithm), cn gi l Logarit c s e (e = 2, 7183) 19C l trong cc sch gio khoa cp mt, m ngi ta ang ci t, phi dy cho tr em s thtrng nc ta rt ngho v hun c ni lo v iu .Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH8 5/18/2009 9. Thm nh d n u t GDP u ngi ca Vit Nam450 Tc tng trng 7,5% H s tch ly 1 nm (=1+0,075)1,075 Ln 1,075 0,07232 GDP uSo vi S nm cn Quc gia ngi 1995Vit NamLni thit (USD) (ln) (nm) Nht Bn9.640884,48 62 Hoa K 26.980604,09 57 Singapore26.730594,08 56 Thailand2.7406 1,81 25 HNG DN EXCEL (cc tnh ton trong nhng v d trn)(1) Bnh phng, cn sBn c th s dng phm nng tnh nhanh cc php tnh ly tha, cn s nh sau: Ly tha: Shift v du ^. V d bn mun tnh 23, bn ch cn nh: =2^3 v OK, Excel s cho bn kt qu l 8. Cn s: Shift v du ^, m ngoc n, nh phn s vi t s l 1 v mu s l bc ca cn, ng ngoc n v OK.V d bn mun tnh 3 8 bn s nh nh sau:= 8^(1/3), kt qu s l 2.(2) Hm LnTng t, dng phm nng tnh nhanh gi tr logarit. V d bn mun tnh Ln 88, bn s nh: =Ln(88), Excel s cho bn kt qu l 4,48.Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH95/18/2009 10. Thm nh d n u t Nhng nu bn mun i thm cc hm Excel lm quen, ri thn v yu, th tng t cc hm thng k (Statistical) c hng dn cc chng trc, nhng by gi l hm ton v lng gic (Math&amp;Trig).u tin bn bm nt fx, chn loi hm Math&amp;Trig, tn hm l Ln chng hn, nh di y:Nh l ch cn tnh mt s thi, sau dng lnh copy b ph thy Excel tnh cc s cn li.(3) Hm FVCng trong fx, bn chn hm ti chnh (financial) v bn s c rt nhiu th, trong c hm FV. Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH10 5/18/2009 11. Thm nh d n u t Lu : Bn s b qua Pmt, n mc gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u, ta s tr li hm ny. Khi s dng phm nng bn s b qua bng cch bm 2 ln du phy, du ngn cch cc khai bo tng ng trong bng tnh trn y. =- FV(C1,C2,,C3) c ch type dng khai bo thi im thanh ton, nu u k th khai 1, nu trng th Excel mc nh l 0, tc cui k 20. (4)Hm Goal seek Sau khi bn tnh FV ca 100 ng sau 3 nm vi li sut 10% l 133,1 ng, by gi bn mun bit li sut 12% th s l bao nhiu, bn a chut vo 10% sa thnh 12% ri OK (tc Enter) bn s c ngay kt qu mi. Tng t, bn s i s nm Lm c iu ny v bn lin kt cng thc trc . Nhng nu bn mun bit gi tr tng lai s l 172 ng th li sut phi l bao nhiu, th sao? Tt nhin bn s m mm, tc ln lt cho thay i li sut, mi ln mt t cho n khi no FV bng ng 172 mi thi! 20Excel rt chu o, nhng iu bnh thng, ph bin v hp l u c n mc nh sn.Chng hn hm FV c mc nh l m v Excel hiu l tr nn bn li phi thm du trvo pha trc thnh dng nh trn! Nhng chu o qu mc c khi cng c khi lm tabc mnh.Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 11 5/18/2009 12. Thm nh d n u tNhng trong trng hp ny, c hm Goalseek (tm kim kt qu) gip bn 21. Excel: Tools/Goalseek Bn ch cn bm OK th cha 10% ( B1) s tr thnh 19,8% v cha gi tr 133,1 ( B5) s tr thnh 172 lp tc. Nu mun gi kt qu mi, bm OK; nu mun tr tr v gi tr c, bm Cancel. n nay th bn thy rng, vic tnh FV, PV, r, n l chuyn d nh mc tin trong ti. (5)Bng h s tin t Tc cc bng tnh gi tr tng lai (h s tch ly) v gi tr hin ti (h s chit khu) ca tin t (ph lc cui sch). Bn hy m Excel ra, np cc gi tr li sut nh mun nh sau: 21Nhng hy nh, nhiu hm trn Excel khng phi ch dnh cho mt nhu cu duy nht. T tng , bn c th p dng tnh cho nhiu bi ton khc. Ngay c cng thc FV cng vy,bn thy rng n khng ch dnh ring cho vic tnh gi tr thi gian ca tin t.Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 125/18/2009 13. Thm nh d n u t y chng qua cng vic lin kt cng thc, mt bi tp s ng u tin khi bt u lm quen vi bng tnh Excel. Nhng phng h c bn cha bit nn ti hng dn c th mt cht 22. V ch mt ln ny thi, ln sau s vn tt hn. Bc 1: nh my cc li sut m bn thng dng v bao nhiu ty thch, theo hng (thm ch theo ct cng c); nh my s nm 1, 2, 3, 4 theo ct, nh l ch cn nh 1, 2 thi. V n s l mt dy s u, bn nh du khi (tc bi en) hai 1 v 2 ri copy xung n khi no mi tay th thi. Excel thng minh lun chu o v thu hiu bn. Bc 2: t chut ti B2, g du bng (=), m ngoc n, nh s 1, g du cng (+), nhp chut vo B1 ch li sut, ng ngoc n, g du nn (^), nhp chut vo A2 ch s nm, Enter. B2 s hin ra h s 1.05. y l gi tr tng lai ca mt ng vi thi gian 1 nm v li sut 5%. Bc 3: Tri (c nh) A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm mt ln F4, khi a ch b tri s xut hin du $ hai bn), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick" 22Ch bi v ti l ha vi bn rng:"Excel d lm, ai d cha bit "chut" ui di hayngn u c th lm c". V nh rng: "Yan can cook th cc bn cng c th nu c".Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 135/18/2009 14. Thm nh d n u t (nm bn tri du "="), tr li. chut vo B2 v copy theo hng, ta s c hng h s trn. Bc 4: a chut tr li B2. Tri B1 (bng cch t con tr vo ch B1 trn thanh cng thc ri bm mt ln F4), m tri A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm ba ln F4 23), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick", tr li. chut vo v tr B2 v copy theo ct, ta s c ct h s trn. C th bn tip tc cho ht bng. Lc ny, mt ngn (no ) ca tay tri h trn nt F4 ch tri (bm mt ln F4) v m tri (bm ba ln F4); tay phi r chut n cc cn thit "tick" OK v copy. V c th, bn cng lm cho cc bn...</p>