Securing Water for Food, Livelihoods and Ecosystems to face Climate Change Smakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., Molden, D, Hoanh C., Noble, A., Giordano, M., McCartney, M., Shah, T. International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Text of Securing Water for Food, Livelihoods and Ecosystems to face Climate Change
1. SECURING WATER FOR FOOD, LIVELIHOODS AND ECOSYSTEMS TO FACE CLIMATE CHANGESmakhtin, V., de Fraiture, C., Bossio, D., Molden, D, Hoanh C.,Noble, A., Giordano, M., McCartney, M., Shah, T.International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions.10-12 March 2009. Copenhagen, Denmark
2. WATER FOR AGRICULTURE RESEARCH IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE GCMs Basin waterAgriculturalAdaptive water impactsimpacts managementCC-relatedpolicies What are the impacts of climate change on water at global, river basin and farm scales? What are water implications of climate mitigation measures? What are the most promising measures in water management to minimize agricultural vulnerability to climate change ? What water related investments are needed and where? 3. WATER SCARCITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1/3 of the worlds population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity 4. PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ATSMALLER SCALES- Blue Nile, Ethiopia Precipitation:Runoff: Q90: 0 to 20% increase -15 to +25% change-25 to +60% change climate in the basin may become wetter and warmer in 2050s low flows are likely to become higher droughts are likely to become less frequent and severe 5. MAKING STORAGE SMARTER storage continuumSUBSURFACESURFACE ACCESS Increasing environmental and social cost Increasing complexity of management Increasing capital costsdam outlets,Reservoirs pumps, off-take towers small large Direct, Ponds and Tanks Buckets, pumpsBoreholes, Aquifersdeep /shallow wells, etcdeep shallowSoil Moisture Planting cropsNatural wetlandsAll of the aboveIncreasing resilienceIncreasing resilience 6. EVALUATING CC ADAPTATION OPTIONS the case of groundwater in IndiaGroundwater use in Asia Climate change and water storage alternatives Measurable criteria Small Large ManagedIndiaSurface DamsAquifers Storage Water where needed3 2 5Water when needed 1 2 5Level of water control1 2 5USA Non-beneficial losses e.g. -4-2-1 China evaporationBang., Pak Protection against a single 1 2 5 annual drought W. Europe Protection against-11 4 VN, SL successive droughts Ease of recovery during 5 4 3 monsoon Other 7. EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATECHANGE POLICIES- the case of biofuels For all national biofuels plans to beimplemented, 30 mill ha more land and 180km3 more water will be necessary globally Some Individual countries (e.g. China andIndia) will not meet food and biofuel waterdemand Is it ethical to use crops to produce energywhen 860 mill people are undernourished? 8. USING CLIMATE CHANGE TO HELP SOLVE OLD PROBLEMS-data collection and sharing Observed hydrological data in the world are insufficient to meet climate cahnge challenges Many countries and regions remain poorly gauged Data collection networks decline Access to already collected data is limited Example of declining networksOnly 20 out 170 WMO member states share data 9000 8000 USA 7000 M.Norris, USGS Number of Flow Stations 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 2200 flow stations closed in 1980-2005 1000 many had 30+ years of record 0 19011905 19091913 19171921 19251929 19331937 19411945 1949 19531957 19611965 19691973 19771981 19851989 19931997 20012005Years 9. CONCLUSIONS Understanding of and adapting to existing climate variability is critical for adaptation to future climates Quantification of local climate change impacts is imperative for the design of adaptation measures. There may be potential beneficiaries of climate change too climate change brings back to the agenda conventional water management measures, like storage, but forces to re-think them as adaptation options climate change -related interventions, like buofuels, may have significant implications for agriculture and water management. They need to be evaluated climate change may be a new context which facilitate the solution old problems in the water sector, like data sharing.