Proyect Final Study Case

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  • 1. PronosticoMes Da # Dias DemandaPronsticoTransformada DataReal Valor Minimo(m) (d) (w)(D) (DE)(X)(DE-VM) 1 6 223$7,535.00 $59,067.69 $8,091.69 $58,511.00 $50,976.00 2 6 234 1,868.0064,160.76 13,184.76 52,844.0050976 3 6 24531,021.0095,648.02 44,672.02 81,997.0050976 4 6 271(1,700.00) 41,581.06 (9,394.94)49,276.0050976 5 6 282 (28,823.00) 32,062.21(18,913.79)22,153.0050976 6 6 29317,311.0075,476.59 24,500.59 68,287.0050976 7 6 30450,114.00 108,413.06 57,437.06 101,090.00 50976 8 715 (11,118.00) 56,621.855,645.85 39,858.0050976 9 752 (41,676.00) 18,534.22(32,441.78) 9,300.0050976 10763 (24,021.00) 23,430.60(27,545.40)26,955.0050976 11774 6,522.0063,073.49 12,097.49 57,498.0050976 1278518,644.0081,385.58 30,409.58 69,620.0050976 137 111 (30,785.00) 33,194.18(17,781.82)20,191.0050976 147 122(7,045.00) 40,834.98(10,141.02)43,931.0050976 157 133(8,442.00) 36,972.63(14,003.37)42,534.0050976 167 14431,884.0090,894.80 39,918.80 82,860.0050976 177 15570,060.00 104,019.02 53,043.02 121,036.00 50976 187 192 1,572.0042,057.55 (8,918.45)52,548.0050976 197 203 (27,114.00) 20,742.02(30,233.98)23,862.0050976 207 214 (50,976.00) -(50,976.00)-50976 217 22512,722.0078,644.07 27,668.07 63,698.0050976 227 262 (26,865.00) 31,630.36(19,345.64)24,111.0050976 237 284 5,918.0043,356.03 (7,619.97)56,894.0050976 247 29562,289.00 100,491.24 49,515.24 113,265.00 50976 25811(3,848.00) 27,068.50(23,907.50)47,128.0050976 26822 (32,687.00) 12,092.85(38,883.15)18,289.0050976 27833 8,467.0052,355.911,379.91 59,443.0050976 2884420,029.0078,923.07 27,947.07 71,005.0050976 29855(3,471.00) 41,405.49 (9,570.51)47,505.0050976 30881(7,461.00) 38,906.99(12,069.01)43,515.0050976 31892(3,105.00) 31,652.72(19,323.28)47,871.0050976 328 103 9,600.0053,353.832,377.83 60,576.0050976 338 11426,636.0054,354.713,378.71 77,612.0050976 348 12530,247.0091,225.47 40,249.47 81,223.0050976 358 151 (27,414.00) 49,727.08 (1,248.92)23,562.0050976 368 162 (20,286.00) 20,292.49(30,683.51)30,690.0050976 378 173(4,223.00) 41,178.88 (9,797.12)46,753.0050976 388 18416,175.0074,639.29 23,663.29 67,151.0050976 398 19525,377.0093,956.68 42,980.68 76,353.0050976 408 221(9,199.00) 37,596.39(13,379.61)41,777.0050976 418 232(9,721.00) 31,109.54(19,866.46)41,255.0050976 428 243 (26,017.00) 47,102.09 (3,873.91)24,959.0050976 438 254(5,403.00) 50,655.04(320.96) 45,573.0050976 448 26521,856.0070,662.31 19,686.31 72,832.0050976 458 291 (22,987.00) 48,040.60 (2,935.40)27,989.0050976 468 302 6,934.0052,566.091,590.09 57,910.0050976 478 313781.00 45,586.28 (5,389.72)51,757.0050976 48914 (19,896.00) 26,893.62(24,082.38)31,080.0050976 (DDP) $ 51,585.9792Promedio $ (781.48) DesvStd11570.12 Z= (0.4679) 0 0.06Error Promedio $ (781.48)

2. $ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48) Error IwImId$ (781.48) 1### 6 120.23%1 76.29% $ (781.48) 2### 7 96.72% 2 35.45% $ (781.48) 3### 8 98.00% 3115.23% $ (781.48) 4### 9 60.25% 4137.64% $ (781.48) 5###555.06%$ (781.48) 652.25%$ (781.48) 7111.46% $ (781.48) 8109.66% $ (781.48) 9 92.80% $ (781.48)10117.43% $ (781.48)11 94.80% $ (781.48)12121.31% $ (781.48)13 82.45% $ (781.48)14160.63% $ (781.48)15140.15% $ (781.48)16 59.49% $ (781.48)17 90.63% $ (781.48)18130.17% $ (781.48)19124.94% $ (781.48)20 46.26% $ (781.48)21 0.00%$ (781.48)22105.96% $ (781.48)23 91.21% $ (781.48)24103.67% $ (781.48)25 88.34% $ (781.48)26 93.96% $ (781.48)27 95.52% $ (781.48)28 76.62% $ (781.48)29135.40% $ (781.48)30154.11% $ (781.48)31100.33% $ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48)$ (781.48) 3. ZError(Ei+1 - E)(Ei+1 - E)^2 1/n-1 Calculada (Di-Pi) -556.69$ 0.02 (10,760.07)115,779,014.280.02 -11316.76 $ (0.91) (2,334.27)5,448,793.47 -13651.02 $ (1.11) 21,345.97 455,650,235.53 7694.94$ 0.73 (17,604.15)309,906,048.92-9909.21 $ (0.79)2,719.62 7,396,336.63-7189.59 $ (0.55) (133.48) 17,815.66-7323.06 $ (0.57) (9,440.79) 89,128,461.57 -16763.85 $ (1.38)7,529.6356,695,392.29-9234.22 $ (0.73) 12,758.61 162,782,224.073524.4$ 0.37(9,099.88) 82,807,887.65-5575.49 $ (0.41) (6,190.09) 38,317,222.76 -11765.58 $ (0.95) (1,237.60)1,531,652.98 -13003.18 $ (1.06) 16,099.19 259,184,017.63 3096.02$ 0.34 2,465.35 6,077,970.03 5561.37$ 0.55 (13,596.17)184,855,777.23 -8034.8 $ (0.63) 25,051.78 627,591,632.2217016.98$ 1.54(6,526.53) 42,595,573.9010490.45$ 0.97(7,370.47) 54,323,812.09 3119.98$ 0.34(3,119.98)9,734,304.87 0$ 0.07 (14,946.07)223,384,982.38 -14946.07 $ (1.22)7,426.7155,156,045.45-7519.36 $ (0.58) 21,057.33 443,411,113.7813537.97$ 1.24(764.21)584,023.3212773.76$ 1.17 7,285.7453,082,010.83 20059.5$ 1.80 (13,863.34)192,192,297.21 6196.15$ 0.60 890.93 793,759.85 7087.09$ 0.68 (15,005.15)225,154,564.51-7918.07 $ (0.62) 14,017.57 196,492,370.65 6099.51$ 0.59(1,491.50)2,224,563.20 4608.01$ 0.4711,610.27 134,798,296.4916218.28$ 1.47(8,996.11) 80,930,003.07 7222.17$ 0.6916,035.12 257,125,100.3523257.29$ 2.08 (33,259.76)1,106,211,625.46 -10002.47 $ (0.80)(16,162.60)261,229,791.28 -26165.08 $ (2.19) 36,562.58 1,336,822,316.6510397.51$ 0.97(4,823.38) 23,265,023.36 5574.12$ 0.55 (13,062.41)170,626,594.42-7488.29 $ (0.58)(10,115.39)102,321,145.02 -17603.68 $ (1.45) 21,784.29 474,555,322.09 4180.61$ 0.43 5,964.8535,579,454.0410145.46$ 0.94 (32,288.55)1,042,550,575.67 -22143.09 $ (1.85) 17,061.05 291,079,570.83-5082.04 $ (0.37)7,251.7352,587,522.20 2169.69$ 0.26 (22,221.29)493,785,524.97-20051.6 $ (1.67) 25,395.50 644,931,654.99 5343.91$ 0.53 826.82 683,623.11 6170.72$ 0.60(1,984.35)3,937,633.36 4186.38$ 0.43 Sumatoria 10,415,320,682.34 d(t)^2 [1/n-1] ( Sum Ei +1 - Ei)^2221,602,567.71 s(t)^2(DesvStd)^2133867445.41 Desviacion Std K(t) d(t)^2/(s(t)^2 1.66 $ 11,570.12 4. $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 5. Z Calculada Z de Menor a Mayor Calculos Z 0.02-2.19 1) -0.91-1.85 z = -3.5 = .000233 -1.11-1.67 z = -1.0 = .1586550.73-1.45 (.158655 - .00233) * 48 -0.79-1.38 Freq = 7.60 -0.55-1.22 -0.57-1.11 2) -1.38-1.06 z = -1.0 = .158655 -0.73-0.95 z = -0.5 = .3085380.37-0.91 (.308538 - .158655) * 48 -0.41 -0.8 Freq = 7.19438 -0.95-0.79 -1.06-0.73 3)0.34-0.63 z = 0 = .50000.55-0.62 z = -0.5 = .308538 -0.63-0.58 (.500 - .308538) * 481.54-0.58 Freq = 9.190.97-0.570.34-0.55 4)0.07-0.41 z = 0 = .5000 -1.22-0.37 z = 0.5 = .691462 -0.58 0.02 (.691462 - .5000) * 481.24 0.07 Freq = 9.191.17 0.26 1.8 0.34 5) 0.6 0.34 z = 0.5 = .6914620.68 0.37 z = 1.0 = .841345 -0.62 0.43 (.841345 - .691462) * 480.59 0.43 Freq = 7.190.47 0.471.47 0.53 6)0.69 0.55 z = 1.0 = .8413452.08 0.55 z = 3.5 =.999767-0.8 0.59 (.999767 - .841345) * 48 -2.190.6 Freq = 7.600.970.60.55 0.68 -0.58 0.69 -1.45 0.730.43 0.940.94 0.97 -1.85 0.97 -0.37 1.170.26 1.24 -1.67 1.470.53 1.54 0.61.80.43 2.08 6. IntervaloFrrecuencia Esperada (E)Frecuencia Observada (O)(O-E)^2 / E(-3.5 to -1.0) 7.6 8 0.02 (-1.0 to -0.5)7.1911 2.02 (-0.5 to 0) 9.19 2 5.63 (0 to 0.5)9.19 90 (0.5 to 1.0)7.1912 3.22 (1.0 to 3.5) 7.6 6 0.34 (O-E)^2 / E11.22