Engineering Responses to Changing Climate

Klaus S. LacknerColumbia University

FRAMING THE DEBATE Defensive Strategy – Avoid Losses

Prevent climate catastrophe

Proactive Strategy – Create Gains Provide clean, cheap energy for ten billion

Challenges

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Overdependence on Oil Affordability

Rethink the World Energy Infrastructure

New ideas change the world Steam Engine Trains & Ships Telephones Automobile Television Airplanes Internet

Unpredicted and unmodeled, these

inventions changed the course of future

societal developments in unexpected ways

0 Gt

8,000 Gt

7,000 Gt

6,000 Gt

5,000 Gt

4,000 Gt

3,000 Gt

2,000 Gt

1,000 Gt

21st Century’s Emissions

???

Atmo-spher

e2000

Ocean

Plants

Coal

Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales

Methane Hydrate

s

pH < 0.3

39,000 Gt

20th Century

50,000

Gt

???

Soil & Detritus

1800 constant

23

4

Scales of Potential Carbon

Sinks

Carbon Resources

Carbon Sources and Sinks

The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks

43

1

2

5

1800-

2000

Fossil Carbon Consumption to

date

180ppmincrease in

the air 30% ofthe Oceanacidified

30% increase inSoil Carbon

50%increase

inbiomass

Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth

EIA Data for 2002

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

100 1000 10000 100000

GDP ($/person/year)

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

Co

ns

um

pti

on

(k

W/p

ers

on

)

Norway USA France UK

Brazil

Russia

India

China

$0.38/kWh (primary)

Today’s Energy Infrastructure All fossil energy plus a little hydro and nuclear

energy plus a very little renewable energy

Mega-scale Projects DominateLow Cost tied to Large Scale Power plants are 200 to 2000 MW

(400 to 4000 large wind mills) Refineries are billion dollar investments

Large scale provides obstacle to entry

•For developing nations

•For innovation

•For flexible response to shortages

•For eliminating political dependencies

Today’s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy … … for 10 billion at US per capita rates

Environmental Problems Pollution, CO2

Oil and Gas Shortages Concentration in the Middle East

How much time do we have to make the change?

2050

Zero Carbon Renewable Energy

Hydroelectricity Cheap but limited, already established

Wind, Tidal Roughly cost effective but limited like hydro

Geothermal Limited or difficult, needs new ideas for low grade

heat Ocean Thermal

Too dilute, and environmental issues Solar

Unlimited, still too expensive, but very promising Low grade solar heat already in use

Nuclear Energy for Zero Carbon Nuclear Energy

Fission Cost Resource limits - but breeder technology Waste Disposal Safety Security

Fusion – Unlimited Supply Major technology hurdles Much smaller waste issues

Fossil Fuels

Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today

Environment Rather Than Resource Limit

Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology

Carbon as Low Cost Energy

Rogner 1997

Net Zero Carbon EconomyNet Zero Carbon Economy

CO2

extraction from air

Permanent & safe disposal

CO2 from concentrated

sources

electricity or hydrogen

Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal

Capture of distributed emissions

Underground Injection

statoil

StorageLife Time

5000 Gt of C

200 years at 4 times current rates of emission

Storage

Slow Leak (0.04%/yr)

2 Gt/yr for 2500 years

Current Emissions: 6Gt/year

Rockville Quarry

Mg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g) 3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l) +63kJ/mole

CO2 N2

H2OSOx, NOx and

other Pollutants

Carbon

Air

Zero Emission Principle

Solid Waste

Power Plant

Air Extraction can compensate for CO2 emissions anywhere

Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal

2NaOH + CO2 Na2CO3

Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel

OilHydrogen Gasoline

Consumption Consumption

Distribution Distribution

CO2 Transport Air Extraction

CO2 Disposal

Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel

OilHydrogen Gasoline

Consumption Consumption

Distribution Distribution

CO2 Transport Air Extraction

CO2 Disposal

Cost comparisons

EnergySource

EnergyConsumer

H2O H2O

O2

O2

H2

CO2

CO2

H2 CH2

Materially Closed Energy Cycles

C H

O

Fuels

Oxidizer

Combustion products

Biomass

CO

Fischer Tropsch Synthesis GasMethanol

EthanolNatural Gas

Town Gas

PetroleumCoal

GasolineBenzeneCarbon Hydrogen

CO2 H2O

Oxygen

Increasing Hydrogen Content

Incr

easi

ng O

xid

ati

on S

tate

Methane

Free

O2

Free C

- H

C H

O

Fuels

Oxidizer

Combustion products

Biomass

CO

Fischer Tropsch Synthesis GasMethanol

EthanolNatural Gas

Town Gas

PetroleumCoal

GasolineBenzeneCarbon Hydrogen

CO2 H2O

Oxygen

Increasing Hydrogen Content

Incr

easi

ng O

xid

ati

on S

tate

Methane

Free

O2

Free C

- H

C H

O

Fuels

Oxidizer

Combustion products

Biomass

CO

Fischer Tropsch Synthesis GasMethanol

EthanolNatural Gas

Town Gas

PetroleumCoal

GasolineBenzeneCarbon Hydrogen

CO2 H2O

Oxygen

Increasing Hydrogen Content

Incr

easi

ng O

xid

ati

on S

tate

Methane

Free

O2

Free C

- H

A Triad of Large Scale Optionsbacked by a multitude of opportunities

Solar Cost reduction and mass-manufacture

Nuclear Cost, waste, safety and security

Fossil Energy Zero emission, carbon storage and

interconvertibility

Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy