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Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self
Samuel Hanes
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Agenda
09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights
10:15 The EAST framework
11:30 Applications to self
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Agenda
09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights
10:15 The EAST framework
11:30 Applications to self
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Estimation Game
• Ten quantities are below • For each, write down your best estimate
Question Estimate
1. Number of countries in Asia
2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres)
3. Population of ASEAN, 2015
4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank)
5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines
6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014
7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013
8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014
9. How many MRT stations in Singapore?
10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014
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Estimation Game
• Now put a lower and upper bound around your estimate, so that you are 90% confident that the truth lies inside it
Question Estimate Upper Lower
1. Number of countries in Asia
2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres)
3. Population of ASEAN, 2015
4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank)
5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines
6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014
7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013
8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014
9. How many MRT stations in Singapore?
10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014
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Estimation Game
• The answers:
Question Estimate
1. Number of countries in Asia 48
2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres) 4,095
3. Population of ASEAN, 2015 633m
4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank) $297.9bn
5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines 175
6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014 1.3m
7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013 1.25m
8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014 1.2m
9. How many MRT stations in Singapore? 121
10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014 326.92m kg
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Estimation Game
Most people’s guesses fall outside the upper and lower bounds between 30 and 70% of the time.
“We are more confident than we deserve to be regarding the accuracy of our knowledge. Most of us are overconfident in the precision of our beliefs” (Max Bazerman & Don Moore)
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Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective
What are behavioural insights?
© Behavioural Insights ltd
Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective
People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested
and shown to be effective.
What are behavioural insights?
© Behavioural Insights ltd
Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective
People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested
and shown to be effective.
We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs.
What are behavioural insights?
© Behavioural Insights ltd
Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective
People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested
and shown to be effective.
We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs. Insights should be useful and
practical for policymakers.
What are behavioural insights?
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A worked example of behavioural insights: Descriptive social norms
Which is the best suit?
A B C
?
“I think B is the best…”
Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal of Marketing Research, 384-387.
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A worked example of behavioural insights: Descriptive social norms
21%
52%
Control Intervention
% replying to intervention
N=136 Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal of Marketing Research, 384-387.
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A worked example of behavioural insights: Social norms applied to antibiotics
“The great majority (80%) of practices in London prescribe fewer antibiotics per head than yours.”
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A worked example of behavioural insights: Social norms applied to antibiotics
100
120
140
160
September (pre)
October November December January February March April (post)
Ant
ibio
tics
per 1
000
wei
ghte
d po
pula
tion
Control
Treatment
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System 1
Fast thinking/Automatic intuitive, effortless
2x2
Taking your daily commute
System 2
Slow thinking/Reflective deliberate, analytic
24x17
Planning a trip overseas
“It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect”
Daniel Kahneman
We need to think differently about behaviour
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BI: more nuanced understanding of human behaviour - additional tools for policymakers
Regulation
Incentives
Information
Behavioural Insights
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“Our government will find intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.”
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David Cameron Prime Minister
Lord O’Donnell Chair of Academic
Advisory Panel Sir Jeremy Heywood Cabinet Secretary and Head of Steering Board
Behavioural Insights Team Dr. David Halpern (Chief Executive) Owain Service (Managing Director) Dr. Rory Gallagher (Managing Director, Asia Pacific) Samuel Hanes (Director, Singapore)
Academic Advisory Panel
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Guatamala: Guatamalan tax administration
UK: (i) The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) & (ii) nudge units in 10 departments
Singapore: (i) Prime Minister’s Office & (ii) Ministry of Manpower
‘Nudge Units’ around the world
Denmark: The Danish Nudging Network
Norway: Greenudge
Finland: Prime Minister’s Office
Sweden: Swedish Nudging Network
Netherlands: (i) Ministry of Economic Affairs & (ii) Ministry of Infrastructure & the Environment
Canada: Policy Horizons Canada
Chicago: Chicago Nudge Unit
US: White House Social and Behavioral Sciences Team
NYC: (i) BIT North America & (ii) ideas42
Commonwealth Government: BETA
Sydney: (i) BIT Australia & (ii) Behavioural Insights Unit, New South Wales
European Commission: Behavioural Science and Foresight Team World Bank:
Development Report and behavioural trials
OECD: Behavioural science coordination
Germany: Chancellor’s Office
Moldova: UNDP/BIT collaboration
Jamaica: Finance Ministry (UNDP/BIT) Rio de Jeneiro:
Mayor’s Office
Mexico: President’s Office
Victoria: DPC NZ?
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We have collaborated with a wide range of government agencies in Singapore
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Example 1: 13.7% relative reduction in appeals.
4.50% 3.88%
Old New N=112,819
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Rolled out nationally, this would reduce appeals by around 3,400 per year Saving ~$105,000 in officer time
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Example 2: The new reminders did not increase payment rates
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 No. of days after letter sent
1st Reminder 2nd Reminder
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Example 2: Many more people paid online
N=2,510
11%
31%
Old Letter New Letter
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Example 2: This was effective even in older age groups
46%
23%
15%
6% 6% 5%
71%
53%
35%
26% 21% 20%
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75
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Our organ donation trial will add 100,000 organ donor registrations each year.
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Name Message Image 1. Control 2. Thousands Every day thousands of people who see
this page decide to register. 3. People Every day thousands of people who see
this page decide to register. Group of people
4. Logo Every day thousands of people who see this page decide to register.
NHS Logo
5. Three Die Three people die each day because there are not enough organ donors.
6. Nine Lives You could save or transform up to nine lives as an organ donor.
7. Would you If you needed an organ transplant would you have one? If so, please help others.
8. Take Action If you support organ donation, please turn you support into action.
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Proportion joining the organ donor register after a simple online prompt
2.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2%
2.2%
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Short break and task:
Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing with the group.
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Agenda
09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights
10:15 The EAST framework
11:30 Applications to self
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Easy: Prescription charts
95%
32% 11%
100% 84%
96%
Dose entered correctly
Prescriber's contact number entered
Frequency of medications entered
correctly
Existing chart (n=174)
Improved chart (n=163)
King et al. (2014) Redesigning the ‘choice architecture’ of hospital prescription charts. Forthcoming.
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Removing small frictions – university applications
Source:Be*ngeretal,2011
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Removing small frictions – university applications
34% 33% 42%
Control group Information Information + pre-filled forms
Bettinger, E. P., Long, B. T., Oreopoulos, P., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2012). The role of application assistance and information in college decisions: Results from the H&R Block FAFSA experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,127(3), 1205-1242.
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Resisting temptation can lead to ego-depletion
20.86 18.90
8.35
No food Eat what you like Radishes only
Seconds spent trying to solve impossible task
Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Muraven, M., & Tice, D. M. (1998). Ego depletion: is the active self a limited resource?. Journal of personality and social psychology, 74(5), 1252.
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Scarcity can lower executive control
Given 2 scenarios: Your car breaks down and requires [$300 or $3000] to be fixed. You can pay in full, take a loan, or take a chance and forego the service at the moment... How would you go about making this decision? Financially, would it be an easy or a difficult decision for you to make? This was followed by Raven’s Matrices tests for IQ, and tests to measure executive/self control
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Initial tests – rich & poor score same. Financial stress made poor more impulsive
0.85 0.84 0.81 0.64
Rich Poor
Cheap Expensive
Measure of self control
Mani, A., Mullainathan, S., Shafir, E., & Zhao, J. (2013). Poverty impedes cognitive function. science, 341(6149), 976-980
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Example slide with a chart (you can copy paste and edit the data)
35% 45%
Control Intervention
Proportion responding (%)
N=136 Source: Author (1999 ). Title. Journal, issue.
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Effect of a perceived unique opportunity
We can’t use everyone in the study. So could I ask you two
short questions first? First, which foreign language did you study in high school? Second, how many brothers and sisters do
you have?
Regardless of how participants responded to the two questions, the experimenter acted as if the
answers matched what he or she was looking for.
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Effect of a perceived unique opportunity
57% 61% 90%
Control Common Unique
Burger, J. M., & Caldwell, D. F. (2011). When opportunity knocks The effect of a perceived unique opportunity on compliance. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 14(5), 671-680.
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Thousands of businesses are benefiting from professional advice. Now Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply
Control
Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply.
Time limited
You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply.
You have been
chosen
Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.
Everyone is doing it
Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.
£2,000
Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply.
You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply.
Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.
Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.
Growth Vouchers
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Growth Vouchers
Three batches of these emails were sent out to 400,000 businesses that might benefit
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Click-through rates for the different emails
1.50% 1.61% 1.64% 1.78% 2.27%
Control £2,000 Everyone is Doing It
Time Limited You Have Been Chosen
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Attractive: missed hospital appointments
Control Telephone number
Costs £160
Social Norm
Appt at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. To cancel or rearrange call the number on your appointment letter.
Appt at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. To cancel or rearrange call 02077673200.
We are expecting you at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. 9 out of 10 people attend. Call 02077673200 if you need to cancel or rearrange.
We are expecting you at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. Not attending costs NHS £160 approx. Call 02077673200 if you need to cancel or rearrange.
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Attractive: missed hospital appointments
11.1% 9.8% 10.0% 8.5%
Control Phone number added
Social norms Costs to NHS
5,800 fewer missed appointments in one site
400,000 across England
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Probability game 1
The pot starts at $2. I will flip a coin. • If it lands tails, you win the pot and the game is over. • If it lands heads I double the pot and flip again. How much would you play to pay this game? E.g. Heads, heads, heads, tails – you win $16 Heads, tails – you win $4
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Probability game 2
Guess a number between 1 and 100. The winner is the person who guesses a number that is 2 / 3 of the average of everyone else’s guesses.
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Compliance messages
Control Reminder Have you overlooked this payment? In case you might have done, I’m
writing to give you a reminder. Moral Duty Paying your tax is the right thing to do. Moral Equity Paying your tax is the fair thing to do. Public Services According to a 2009 opinion poll, our most valued public services are the
NHS, schools, care for the elderly, and the police. Every single tax payment helps to run these services.
Costs & Gain Every tax payment we receive means the country has to borrow less money – reducing costs for us all.
Costs & Loss Every tax payment we do not receive means the country has to borrow more money - increasing costs for us all.
Deficit According to a 2011 opinion survey, people said that one of the best ways to improve the economy was to reduce the public debt and deficit. But to reduce the deficit we need everyone to pay the tax they owe. Please help us achieve this goal by making your payment now.
Progress You have already successfully filed your tax return. All you need to do now is call us to pay the amount you said you owe.
Progress & Thanks Thank you for successfully filing your 2010-11 tax return: we appreciate this requires effort on your part. All you need to do now is call us to pay the amount you said you owe.
Monitoring We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter. Monitoring Day We will be checking our records every day to see if you have paid. Monitoring & Norms Nine out of ten people pay their tax on time - you are currently in the small
minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter.
Moral & Monitoring & Norms
Paying your tax is the right thing to do, and nine out of ten people pay their tax on time. You are currently in the small minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter.
Deterrence-focused messages
Public goods
Progress towards end-state
Moral concerns
Respect / concern
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Compliance messages can be more effective than public service messages
57.0 57.5 57.1
57.7 57.2
56.1
57.4 56.3
55.8 56.0
[VALUE]***
[VALUE]***
[VALUE]*** [VALUE]***
Payment rates at 19 days
N= 105,379
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Illusion of progress
The results show that card one is completed in an average of 15.6 days Card two is completed in an average of 12.7 days nearly 20% faster
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Social norm violation spreads disorder
32%
69%
No Graffiti Graffiti
Littering Encouraged by Graffiti
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Social norm violation spreads disorder
13%
25% 27%
No Violation Litter Graffiti
Litter and Graffiti Increase Petty Theft
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Social: self assessment tax
33.6% 35.1% 35.9% 37.2% 39.0%
Control (8,558) UK Norm (8,300)
Local Norm (8,403)
Debt Norm (8,779)
Local + Debt Norm (8,643)
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“Por favor presente su declaración del impuesto sobre la renta”
“Si usted no declara, puede ser auditado y ser sujeto al procedimiento establecido por ley.”
Social: tax in Guatemala
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Standard letter – interestingly, it did not tell you how to file your taxes!
“Please file your declaration of income tax.” “If you do not declare, you may be audited and could face the procedure established by law.”
“According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to declare for this tax”
“Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be audited and could face the procedure established by law.”
“You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your country?”
Control
BIT
Norms
Oversight
Affect / Ego
“According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to declare for this tax”
“Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be audited and could face the procedure established by law.”
“You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your country?”
Social: tax in Guatemala
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Social: tax in Guatemala
3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.6%
No letter Control BIT Norms Oversight Affect / Ego
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Social norms – what do we do compared to our perception of others
66%
59%
51%
39%
67%
62%
63%
19%
9%
40%
Not saving enough for retirement
Not doing recommended exercise
Pretend to be sick for work
Avoid taxes
Eat too much sugar
Own Behaviour Norm
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Save enough for retirement
Eat more than the recommended
amount of sugar
Avoid paying full amount of
tax
Pretend to be sick to not go to
work
+30 +32 +26 +4 +4
Do the recommended
amount of physical activity
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Policy aim: recruiting a more diverse police force
“We will transform the relationship between the police and the public We have taken action to boost public confidence and trust in the police and now want to go even further. We will improve the diversity of police recruitment – especially of black and ethnic minority officers.” Conservative Party Manifesto 2015
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Stereotype threat
Asian women's performance in a maths test were affected by which identity was highlighted
49% 54% 43%
No identity highlighted Asian identity highlighted
Female identity highlighted
Percentage of questions answered accurately
Shih, M., Pittinsky, T.L. and Ambady, N. (1999) Stereotype susceptibility: identity salience and shifts in quantitative performance. Psychological Science,10, 1, 80–83.
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Treatment message
The “affirmation boost”:
“Before you start the test, I’d like you to take some time to think about why you want to be a police constable. For example, what is it about being a police constable that means the most to you and your community?”
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Test score – BMEs and non-BMEs
111.9
105.9
112.1 110.5
Non-BME BME
Control Treatment
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Application rates of candidates for the Army Reserve
4.5%
[VALUE]
Control Treatment
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Reciprocity – People return in kind when you do something for them
12% 14% 21%
No gift Small gift Large gift
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10%15% 18%
27%
Control +ClaimantName +AdvisorName +Reciprocity
The power of reciprocity and personalisation: % of job seekers turning up to the Jobcentre
Hi Rory, 8 new [job type] are no available at [employer]. Come to Bedford jobcentre on [date] and ask Sarah to find out more. I’ve booked you a place. Good luck, Sam
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Memory test: How did you do?
1. Apple 2. Policeman 3. Cake
4. Helicopter 5. Doctor 6. Cow
7. Golfer 8. France 9. Music Notes
10. Wheat 11. Washing Machine 13. Money
14. Clock 15. Dog
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Ordering effects: primacy, recency and the ‘peak-end’ rule
Primacy Recency
Time
Rec
all
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Recency – applying to crime policy
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Sentence 1
Sentence 2
Jail Community Service
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Recency – applying to crime policy
0 20 40 60 80 100
Trial 1
Trial 2
Cold water Warmer water
70% of people preferred to repeat the longer trial
Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B. L., Schreiber, C. A., & Redelmeier, D. A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end.Psychological science, 4(6), 401-405.
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Extended procedure - results
2.5
4.9
48% 1.7
4.4
53%
Pain at end of procedure
Total unpleasantness Rate of return for follow up
Normal Extended
Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: a randomized trial. Pain, 104(1), 187-194.
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“You have to deposit at least Rs. 5000 in the account by December 2010”
31.86%
8.09%
December January Source:Tu&Soman,2014
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Time Discounting
A $20 Now
B $25 in 3 months
A $20 now
C $20 now
D $30 in 3 months
D $30 in 3 months
E $20 now
F $40 in 3 months
F $40 in 3 months
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Why are we impatient?
Younger me Older me
Same person or different
person?
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Students presented with following facts
“the important characteristics that make you the person you are right now... are established early in life and fixed by the end of adolescence” vs. “the important characteristics that make you the person you are right now... are likely to change radically in young adulthood” Then asked about $120 voucher. How much bigger would it have to be for you to wait one year before receiving it?
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Thinking your personality is changeable affects your discount rate
$49 $68
"fixed" "radically change"
Bartels, D. M., & Urminsky, O. (2011). On intertemporal selfishness: How the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 182-198.
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Hyperbolic Discounting
A $20 Now
B $30 in 3 months
A $20 now
C $20 in 9 months
D $30 in 12 months
D $30 in 12 months
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Field experiment in ‘dynamic inconsistency’
Shoppers choose food in advance
Have surprise choice to switch to less healthy
items on the day
Can choose to commit to choices in second
week
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People switch their grocery choices when presented with temptation
21%
33%
Switched choices when offered Chose to commit
Sadoff, S., Samek, A. S., & Sprenger, C. (2015). Dynamic inconsistency in food choice: Experimental evidence from a food desert. Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics Working Paper, (2572821).
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Discounting summary
• Discount rates often higher than you might think • Can be affected by sense of ‘persistent self’ • Other research suggests higher amongst:
• Drug users • Young people • Men • People who have recently been through a crisis
• We are also often ‘dynamically inconsistent’
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Planning
In standard Get Out the Vote Call What time will you vote? Where will you be coming from? What will you be doing beforehand?
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Planning – implementation intentions
42.9% 42.8% 43.4% 43.8%
Control GOTV Self-prediction Implementation Intentions
Nickerson, D. W., & Rogers, T. (2010). Do you have a voting plan? Implementation intentions, voter turnout, and organic plan making.Psychological Science, 21(2), 194-199.
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Agenda
09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights
10:15 The EAST framework
11:30 Applications to self
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Your goal
Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing with the group.
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My wish is that I want to be able to complete my physiotherapy exercises in the evening. My outcome would be that I would feel stronger and happier. My obstacle is that when I feel a twinge in my muscles as I do the exercises, I worry it means I’m going to hurt myself, even though I know that the movement is good for my recovery. My plan is that when I feel worried I will remind myself that those twinges aren’t anything to worry about and that movement will help with the pain over time. I’ll just take things a bit more slowly and carefully instead of stopping.
Wish: To complete physio exercises in the evening Outcome: I would feel stronger and happier
Obstacle: I feel a twinge and worry I’m hurting myself
Plan: I’ll remind myself not to worry, to go more slowly
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Step 2…
OUTCOME
What is the best possible thing that would come from achieving that wish or goal?
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Step 2…
Visualise it!
Take time to imagine how it would feel to have achieved that wish or goal.
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Step 3…
OBSTACLE
What is a challenge or difficulty that will probably come up while you’re trying to
achieve your wish or goal?
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Step 2…
Visualise it!
Imagine the moment when you’re most at risk of not achieving your wish.
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Step 4…
PLAN
The thing that you will do when the obstacle comes up that will help you
overcome that obstacle.
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Make some progress immediately
Write down a next step you can take today as soon as you leave this workshop. It doesn’t matter how small.