Workshop #14: Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self by Samuel Hanes

© Behavioural Insights ltd

Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self

Samuel Hanes


Agenda

09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights

10:15 The EAST framework

11:30 Applications to self


Agenda





Estimation Game

•  Ten quantities are below •  For each, write down your best estimate

Question Estimate

1. Number of countries in Asia

2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres)

3. Population of ASEAN, 2015

4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank)

5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines

6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014

7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013

8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014

9. How many MRT stations in Singapore?

10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014


Estimation Game

•  Now put a lower and upper bound around your estimate, so that you are 90% confident that the truth lies inside it

Question Estimate Upper Lower

1. Number of countries in Asia

2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres)

3. Population of ASEAN, 2015

4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank)

5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines

6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014

7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013

8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014

9. How many MRT stations in Singapore?

10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014


Estimation Game

•  The answers:

Question Estimate

1. Number of countries in Asia 48

2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres) 4,095

3. Population of ASEAN, 2015 633m

4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank) $297.9bn

5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines 175

6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014 1.3m

7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013 1.25m

8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014 1.2m

9. How many MRT stations in Singapore? 121

10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014 326.92m kg


Estimation Game

Most people’s guesses fall outside the upper and lower bounds between 30 and 70% of the time.

“We are more confident than we deserve to be regarding the accuracy of our knowledge. Most of us are overconfident in the precision of our beliefs” (Max Bazerman & Don Moore)


Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective

What are behavioural insights?



People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested

and shown to be effective.






We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs.






We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs. Insights should be useful and

practical for policymakers.



A worked example of behavioural insights: Descriptive social norms

Which is the best suit?

A B C

?

“I think B is the best…”

Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal of Marketing Research, 384-387.


Control: Respond on their own

Social norm: Respond after actors


A worked example of behavioural insights: Descriptive social norms

21%

52%

Control Intervention

% replying to intervention

N=136 Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal of Marketing Research, 384-387.


A worked example of behavioural insights: Social norms applied to antibiotics

“The great majority (80%) of practices in London prescribe fewer antibiotics per head than yours.”


A worked example of behavioural insights: Social norms applied to antibiotics

100

120

140

160

September (pre)

October November December January February March April (post)

Ant

ibio

tics

per 1

000

wei

ghte

d po

pula

tion

Control

Treatment


System 1

Fast thinking/Automatic intuitive, effortless

2x2

Taking your daily commute

System 2

Slow thinking/Reflective deliberate, analytic

24x17

Planning a trip overseas

“It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect”

Daniel Kahneman

We need to think differently about behaviour


Most policy concerns behaviour…


BI: more nuanced understanding of human behaviour - additional tools for policymakers

Regulation

Incentives

Information

Behavioural Insights



“Our government will find intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.”


David Cameron Prime Minister

Lord O’Donnell Chair of Academic

Advisory Panel Sir Jeremy Heywood Cabinet Secretary and Head of Steering Board

Behavioural Insights Team Dr. David Halpern (Chief Executive) Owain Service (Managing Director) Dr. Rory Gallagher (Managing Director, Asia Pacific) Samuel Hanes (Director, Singapore)

Academic Advisory Panel


Guatamala: Guatamalan tax administration

UK: (i) The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) & (ii) nudge units in 10 departments

Singapore: (i) Prime Minister’s Office & (ii) Ministry of Manpower

‘Nudge Units’ around the world

Denmark: The Danish Nudging Network

Norway: Greenudge

Finland: Prime Minister’s Office

Sweden: Swedish Nudging Network

Netherlands: (i) Ministry of Economic Affairs & (ii) Ministry of Infrastructure & the Environment

Canada: Policy Horizons Canada

Chicago: Chicago Nudge Unit

US: White House Social and Behavioral Sciences Team

NYC: (i) BIT North America & (ii) ideas42

Commonwealth Government: BETA

Sydney: (i) BIT Australia & (ii) Behavioural Insights Unit, New South Wales

European Commission: Behavioural Science and Foresight Team World Bank:

Development Report and behavioural trials

OECD: Behavioural science coordination

Germany: Chancellor’s Office

Moldova: UNDP/BIT collaboration

Jamaica: Finance Ministry (UNDP/BIT) Rio de Jeneiro:

Mayor’s Office

Mexico: President’s Office

Victoria: DPC NZ?


We have collaborated with a wide range of government agencies in Singapore


Example 1: Decreasing unnecessary appeals for parking offences


Example 1: information about appeals provided upfront


Example 1: Reminder of evidence requirement


Example 1: 13.7% relative reduction in appeals.

4.50% 3.88%

Old New N=112,819


Rolled out nationally, this would reduce appeals by around 3,400 per year Saving ~$105,000 in officer time


Example 2: Channel migration for HDB improvement payments


Example 2: Redesigned letters


Example 2: The new reminders did not increase payment rates

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 No. of days after letter sent

1st Reminder 2nd Reminder


Example 2: Many more people paid online

N=2,510

11%

31%

Old Letter New Letter


Example 2: This was effective even in older age groups

46%

23%

15%

6% 6% 5%

71%

53%

35%

26% 21% 20%

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75


Studying behaviour “can lead to better results for schemes, policies”


Our organ donation trial will add 100,000 organ donor registrations each year.



1. Control 2. Thousands

3. People 4. Logo


5. Three die 6. Nine Lives

7. Would you 8. Take Action


Name Message Image 1. Control 2. Thousands Every day thousands of people who see

this page decide to register. 3. People Every day thousands of people who see

this page decide to register. Group of people

4. Logo Every day thousands of people who see this page decide to register.

NHS Logo

5. Three Die Three people die each day because there are not enough organ donors.

6. Nine Lives You could save or transform up to nine lives as an organ donor.

7. Would you If you needed an organ transplant would you have one? If so, please help others.

8. Take Action If you support organ donation, please turn you support into action.


Proportion joining the organ donor register after a simple online prompt

2.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2%

2.2%


Short break and task:

Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing with the group.


Agenda





SOCIAL

TIMELY ATTRACTIVE

EASY


Attention depletion

(Danziger et al. 2010)


Easy: Prescription charts


Easy: Prescription charts

95%

32% 11%

100% 84%

96%

Dose entered correctly

Prescriber's contact number entered

Frequency of medications entered

correctly

Existing chart (n=174)

Improved chart (n=163)

King et al. (2014) Redesigning the ‘choice architecture’ of hospital prescription charts. Forthcoming.


Easy: The ‘Tax Return Initiative’

Direct to form

Webpage


Easy: The ‘Tax Return Initiative’

19.2% 23.4%

Webpage Direct to Form


Removing small frictions – university applications

Source:Be*ngeretal,2011


Removing small frictions – university applications

34% 33% 42%

Control group Information Information + pre-filled forms

Bettinger, E. P., Long, B. T., Oreopoulos, P., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2012). The role of application assistance and information in college decisions: Results from the H&R Block FAFSA experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,127(3), 1205-1242.


Ego-depletion

No food vs eat what you like vs radishes only


Resisting temptation can lead to ego-depletion

20.86 18.90

8.35

No food Eat what you like Radishes only

Seconds spent trying to solve impossible task

Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Muraven, M., & Tice, D. M. (1998). Ego depletion: is the active self a limited resource?. Journal of personality and social psychology, 74(5), 1252.


Scarcity can lower executive control

Given 2 scenarios: Your car breaks down and requires [$300 or $3000] to be fixed. You can pay in full, take a loan, or take a chance and forego the service at the moment... How would you go about making this decision? Financially, would it be an easy or a difficult decision for you to make? This was followed by Raven’s Matrices tests for IQ, and tests to measure executive/self control


Initial tests – rich & poor score same. Financial stress made poor more impulsive

0.85 0.84 0.81 0.64

Rich Poor

Cheap Expensive

Measure of self control

Mani, A., Mullainathan, S., Shafir, E., & Zhao, J. (2013). Poverty impedes cognitive function. science, 341(6149), 976-980


Example slide with a chart (you can copy paste and edit the data)

35% 45%

Control Intervention

Proportion responding (%)

N=136 Source: Author (1999 ). Title. Journal, issue.


SOCIAL

TIMELY ATTRACTIVE

EASY


Effect of a perceived unique opportunity

We can’t use everyone in the study. So could I ask you two

short questions first? First, which foreign language did you study in high school? Second, how many brothers and sisters do

you have?

Regardless of how participants responded to the two questions, the experimenter acted as if the

answers matched what he or she was looking for.


Effect of a perceived unique opportunity

57% 61% 90%

Control Common Unique

Burger, J. M., & Caldwell, D. F. (2011). When opportunity knocks The effect of a perceived unique opportunity on compliance. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 14(5), 671-680.


Growth Vouchers


Thousands of businesses are benefiting from professional advice. Now Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply

Control

Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply.

Time limited

You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply.

You have been

chosen

Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.

Everyone is doing it

Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.

£2,000

Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply.

You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply.

Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.

Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply.

Growth Vouchers


Growth Vouchers

Three batches of these emails were sent out to 400,000 businesses that might benefit


Click-through rates for the different emails

1.50% 1.61% 1.64% 1.78% 2.27%

Control £2,000 Everyone is Doing It

Time Limited You Have Been Chosen


Attractive: missed hospital appointments

Control Telephone number

Costs £160

Social Norm

Appt at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. To cancel or rearrange call the number on your appointment letter.

Appt at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. To cancel or rearrange call 02077673200.

We are expecting you at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. 9 out of 10 people attend. Call 02077673200 if you need to cancel or rearrange.

We are expecting you at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. Not attending costs NHS £160 approx. Call 02077673200 if you need to cancel or rearrange.


Attractive: missed hospital appointments

11.1% 9.8% 10.0% 8.5%

Control Phone number added

Social norms Costs to NHS

5,800 fewer missed appointments in one site

400,000 across England


Probability game 1

The pot starts at $2. I will flip a coin. •  If it lands tails, you win the pot and the game is over. •  If it lands heads I double the pot and flip again. How much would you play to pay this game? E.g. Heads, heads, heads, tails – you win $16 Heads, tails – you win $4


Probability game 2

Guess a number between 1 and 100. The winner is the person who guesses a number that is 2 / 3 of the average of everyone else’s guesses.


Compliance messages

Control Reminder Have you overlooked this payment? In case you might have done, I’m

writing to give you a reminder. Moral Duty Paying your tax is the right thing to do. Moral Equity Paying your tax is the fair thing to do. Public Services According to a 2009 opinion poll, our most valued public services are the

NHS, schools, care for the elderly, and the police. Every single tax payment helps to run these services.

Costs & Gain Every tax payment we receive means the country has to borrow less money – reducing costs for us all.

Costs & Loss Every tax payment we do not receive means the country has to borrow more money - increasing costs for us all.

Deficit According to a 2011 opinion survey, people said that one of the best ways to improve the economy was to reduce the public debt and deficit. But to reduce the deficit we need everyone to pay the tax they owe. Please help us achieve this goal by making your payment now.

Progress You have already successfully filed your tax return. All you need to do now is call us to pay the amount you said you owe.

Progress & Thanks Thank you for successfully filing your 2010-11 tax return: we appreciate this requires effort on your part. All you need to do now is call us to pay the amount you said you owe.

Monitoring We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter. Monitoring Day We will be checking our records every day to see if you have paid. Monitoring & Norms Nine out of ten people pay their tax on time - you are currently in the small

minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter.

Moral & Monitoring & Norms

Paying your tax is the right thing to do, and nine out of ten people pay their tax on time. You are currently in the small minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter.

Deterrence-focused messages

Public goods

Progress towards end-state

Moral concerns

Respect / concern


Compliance messages can be more effective than public service messages

57.0 57.5 57.1

57.7 57.2

56.1

57.4 56.3

55.8 56.0

[VALUE]***

[VALUE]***

[VALUE]*** [VALUE]***

Payment rates at 19 days

N= 105,379


Voter registration lottery


Voter registration lottery

44.8% 46.3% 46.7%

Control £1,000 £5,000


Illusion of progress

The results show that card one is completed in an average of 15.6 days Card two is completed in an average of 12.7 days nearly 20% faster


SOCIAL

TIMELY ATTRACTIVE

EASY


Social norm violation spreads disorder

32%

69%

No Graffiti Graffiti

Littering Encouraged by Graffiti


Social norm violation spreads disorder

13%

25% 27%

No Violation Litter Graffiti

Litter and Graffiti Increase Petty Theft


Nineoutoftenpeoplepaytheirtaxon1me.

Social: self assessment tax


Social: self assessment tax

33.6% 35.1% 35.9% 37.2% 39.0%

Control (8,558) UK Norm (8,300)

Local Norm (8,403)

Debt Norm (8,779)

Local + Debt Norm (8,643)


“Por favor presente su declaración del impuesto sobre la renta”

“Si usted no declara, puede ser auditado y ser sujeto al procedimiento establecido por ley.”

Social: tax in Guatemala


Standard letter – interestingly, it did not tell you how to file your taxes!

“Please file your declaration of income tax.” “If you do not declare, you may be audited and could face the procedure established by law.”

“According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to declare for this tax”

“Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be audited and could face the procedure established by law.”

“You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your country?”

Control

BIT

Norms

Oversight

Affect / Ego

“According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to declare for this tax”

“Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be audited and could face the procedure established by law.”

“You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your country?”




3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.6%

No letter Control BIT Norms Oversight Affect / Ego


Social norms – what do we do compared to our perception of others

66%

59%

51%

39%

67%

62%

63%

19%

9%

40%

Not saving enough for retirement

Not doing recommended exercise

Pretend to be sick for work

Avoid taxes

Eat too much sugar

Own Behaviour Norm


Save enough for retirement

Eat more than the recommended

amount of sugar

Avoid paying full amount of

tax

Pretend to be sick to not go to

work

+30 +32 +26 +4 +4

Do the recommended

amount of physical activity


Policy aim: recruiting a more diverse police force

“We will transform the relationship between the police and the public We have taken action to boost public confidence and trust in the police and now want to go even further. We will improve the diversity of police recruitment – especially of black and ethnic minority officers.” Conservative Party Manifesto 2015


Stereotype threat

Asian women's performance in a maths test were affected by which identity was highlighted

49% 54% 43%

No identity highlighted Asian identity highlighted

Female identity highlighted

Percentage of questions answered accurately

Shih, M., Pittinsky, T.L. and Ambady, N. (1999) Stereotype susceptibility: identity salience and shifts in quantitative performance. Psychological Science,10, 1, 80–83.


Treatment message

The “affirmation boost”:

“Before you start the test, I’d like you to take some time to think about why you want to be a police constable. For example, what is it about being a police constable that means the most to you and your community?”


Test score – BMEs and non-BMEs

111.9

105.9

112.1 110.5

Non-BME BME

Control Treatment


Joining the Army Reserve


Joining the Army Reserve


Application rates of candidates for the Army Reserve

4.5%

[VALUE]

Control Treatment


Reciprocity – People return in kind when you do something for them


Reciprocity – People return in kind when you do something for them

12% 14% 21%

No gift Small gift Large gift


10%15% 18%

27%

Control +ClaimantName +AdvisorName +Reciprocity

The power of reciprocity and personalisation: % of job seekers turning up to the Jobcentre

Hi Rory, 8 new [job type] are no available at [employer]. Come to Bedford jobcentre on [date] and ask Sarah to find out more. I’ve booked you a place. Good luck, Sam


Cell wall handwritten message


SOCIAL

TIMELY ATTRACTIVE

EASY


Memory game


Memory test: How did you do?

1. Apple 2. Policeman 3. Cake

4. Helicopter 5. Doctor 6. Cow

7. Golfer 8. France 9. Music Notes

10. Wheat 11. Washing Machine 13. Money

14. Clock 15. Dog


Ordering effects: primacy, recency and the ‘peak-end’ rule

Primacy Recency

Time

Rec

all


Recency – applying to crime policy

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Sentence 1

Sentence 2

Jail Community Service


Recency – applying to crime policy

0 20 40 60 80 100

Trial 1

Trial 2

Cold water Warmer water

70% of people preferred to repeat the longer trial

Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B. L., Schreiber, C. A., & Redelmeier, D. A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end.Psychological science, 4(6), 401-405.


Extended medical procedure for colonoscopies


Extended procedure - results

2.5

4.9

48% 1.7

4.4

53%

Pain at end of procedure

Total unpleasantness Rate of return for follow up

Normal Extended

Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: a randomized trial. Pain, 104(1), 187-194.


“You have to deposit at least Rs. 5000 in the account by December 2010”

31.86%

8.09%

December January Source:Tu&Soman,2014


Time Discounting

A $20 Now

B $25 in 3 months

A $20 now

C $20 now

D $30 in 3 months

D $30 in 3 months

E $20 now

F $40 in 3 months

F $40 in 3 months


Why are we impatient?

Younger me Older me

Same person or different

person?


Students presented with following facts

“the important characteristics that make you the person you are right now... are established early in life and fixed by the end of adolescence” vs. “the important characteristics that make you the person you are right now... are likely to change radically in young adulthood” Then asked about $120 voucher. How much bigger would it have to be for you to wait one year before receiving it?


Thinking your personality is changeable affects your discount rate

$49 $68

"fixed" "radically change"

Bartels, D. M., & Urminsky, O. (2011). On intertemporal selfishness: How the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 182-198.


Hyperbolic Discounting

A $20 Now

B $30 in 3 months

A $20 now

C $20 in 9 months

D $30 in 12 months

D $30 in 12 months


Field experiment in ‘dynamic inconsistency’

Shoppers choose food in advance

Have surprise choice to switch to less healthy

items on the day

Can choose to commit to choices in second

week


People switch their grocery choices when presented with temptation

21%

33%

Switched choices when offered Chose to commit

Sadoff, S., Samek, A. S., & Sprenger, C. (2015). Dynamic inconsistency in food choice: Experimental evidence from a food desert. Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics Working Paper, (2572821).


Discounting summary

•  Discount rates often higher than you might think •  Can be affected by sense of ‘persistent self’ •  Other research suggests higher amongst:

•  Drug users •  Young people •  Men •  People who have recently been through a crisis

•  We are also often ‘dynamically inconsistent’


Planning

In standard Get Out the Vote Call What time will you vote? Where will you be coming from? What will you be doing beforehand?


Planning – implementation intentions

42.9% 42.8% 43.4% 43.8%

Control GOTV Self-prediction Implementation Intentions

Nickerson, D. W., & Rogers, T. (2010). Do you have a voting plan? Implementation intentions, voter turnout, and organic plan making.Psychological Science, 21(2), 194-199.


SOCIAL

TIMELY ATTRACTIVE

EASY


Agenda





Your goal

Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing with the group.


SOCIAL

TIMELY ATTRACTIVE

EASY


My wish is that I want to be able to complete my physiotherapy exercises in the evening. My outcome would be that I would feel stronger and happier. My obstacle is that when I feel a twinge in my muscles as I do the exercises, I worry it means I’m going to hurt myself, even though I know that the movement is good for my recovery. My plan is that when I feel worried I will remind myself that those twinges aren’t anything to worry about and that movement will help with the pain over time. I’ll just take things a bit more slowly and carefully instead of stopping.

Wish: To complete physio exercises in the evening Outcome: I would feel stronger and happier

Obstacle: I feel a twinge and worry I’m hurting myself

Plan: I’ll remind myself not to worry, to go more slowly


Step 1…

WISH

What is the wish or goal that you want to achieve?


Step 2…

OUTCOME

What is the best possible thing that would come from achieving that wish or goal?


Step 2…

Visualise it!

Take time to imagine how it would feel to have achieved that wish or goal.


Step 3…

OBSTACLE

What is a challenge or difficulty that will probably come up while you’re trying to

achieve your wish or goal?


Step 2…

Visualise it!

Imagine the moment when you’re most at risk of not achieving your wish.


Step 4…

PLAN

The thing that you will do when the obstacle comes up that will help you

overcome that obstacle.


Make a commitment with stakes


Make some progress immediately

Write down a next step you can take today as soon as you leave this workshop. It doesn’t matter how small.


[email protected]

Design

Workshop #14: Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self by Samuel Hanes