Download xls - Proyect Final Study Case

Data Valor Minimo

1 6 22 3 $ 7,535.00 $ 59,067.69 $ 8,091.69 $ 58,511.00 $ 50,976.00 2 6 23 4 1,868.00 64,160.76 13,184.76 52,844.00 509763 6 24 5 31,021.00 95,648.02 44,672.02 81,997.00 509764 6 27 1 (1,700.00) 41,581.06 (9,394.94) 49,276.00 509765 6 28 2 (28,823.00) 32,062.21 (18,913.79) 22,153.00 509766 6 29 3 17,311.00 75,476.59 24,500.59 68,287.00 509767 6 30 4 50,114.00 108,413.06 57,437.06 101,090.00 509768 7 1 5 (11,118.00) 56,621.85 5,645.85 39,858.00 509769 7 5 2 (41,676.00) 18,534.22 (32,441.78) 9,300.00 50976

10 7 6 3 (24,021.00) 23,430.60 (27,545.40) 26,955.00 5097611 7 7 4 6,522.00 63,073.49 12,097.49 57,498.00 5097612 7 8 5 18,644.00 81,385.58 30,409.58 69,620.00 5097613 7 11 1 (30,785.00) 33,194.18 (17,781.82) 20,191.00 5097614 7 12 2 (7,045.00) 40,834.98 (10,141.02) 43,931.00 5097615 7 13 3 (8,442.00) 36,972.63 (14,003.37) 42,534.00 5097616 7 14 4 31,884.00 90,894.80 39,918.80 82,860.00 5097617 7 15 5 70,060.00 104,019.02 53,043.02 121,036.00 5097618 7 19 2 1,572.00 42,057.55 (8,918.45) 52,548.00 5097619 7 20 3 (27,114.00) 20,742.02 (30,233.98) 23,862.00 5097620 7 21 4 (50,976.00) - (50,976.00) - 5097621 7 22 5 12,722.00 78,644.07 27,668.07 63,698.00 5097622 7 26 2 (26,865.00) 31,630.36 (19,345.64) 24,111.00 5097623 7 28 4 5,918.00 43,356.03 (7,619.97) 56,894.00 5097624 7 29 5 62,289.00 100,491.24 49,515.24 113,265.00 5097625 8 1 1 (3,848.00) 27,068.50 (23,907.50) 47,128.00 5097626 8 2 2 (32,687.00) 12,092.85 (38,883.15) 18,289.00 5097627 8 3 3 8,467.00 52,355.91 1,379.91 59,443.00 5097628 8 4 4 20,029.00 78,923.07 27,947.07 71,005.00 5097629 8 5 5 (3,471.00) 41,405.49 (9,570.51) 47,505.00 5097630 8 8 1 (7,461.00) 38,906.99 (12,069.01) 43,515.00 5097631 8 9 2 (3,105.00) 31,652.72 (19,323.28) 47,871.00 5097632 8 10 3 9,600.00 53,353.83 2,377.83 60,576.00 5097633 8 11 4 26,636.00 54,354.71 3,378.71 77,612.00 5097634 8 12 5 30,247.00 91,225.47 40,249.47 81,223.00 5097635 8 15 1 (27,414.00) 49,727.08 (1,248.92) 23,562.00 5097636 8 16 2 (20,286.00) 20,292.49 (30,683.51) 30,690.00 5097637 8 17 3 (4,223.00) 41,178.88 (9,797.12) 46,753.00 5097638 8 18 4 16,175.00 74,639.29 23,663.29 67,151.00 5097639 8 19 5 25,377.00 93,956.68 42,980.68 76,353.00 5097640 8 22 1 (9,199.00) 37,596.39 (13,379.61) 41,777.00 5097641 8 23 2 (9,721.00) 31,109.54 (19,866.46) 41,255.00 5097642 8 24 3 (26,017.00) 47,102.09 (3,873.91) 24,959.00 5097643 8 25 4 (5,403.00) 50,655.04 (320.96) 45,573.00 5097644 8 26 5 21,856.00 70,662.31 19,686.31 72,832.00 5097645 8 29 1 (22,987.00) 48,040.60 (2,935.40) 27,989.00 5097646 8 30 2 6,934.00 52,566.09 1,590.09 57,910.00 5097647 8 31 3 781.00 45,586.28 (5,389.72) 51,757.00 5097648 9 1 4 (19,896.00) 26,893.62 (24,082.38) 31,080.00 50976

(DDP) $ 51,585.9792 Promedio $ (781.48)

DesvStd 11570.117924Z= (0.4679)

Mes (m)

Día (d)

# Dias (w)

Demanda (D)

Pronóstico (DE)

Pronostico Real

(DE-VM)

Transformada (X)

0.000598

0.0598 Error Promedio $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48)

$ (781.48)1 ### 6 120.23% 1 76.29% $ (781.48)2 ### 7 96.72% 2 35.45% $ (781.48)3 ### 8 98.00% 3 115.23% $ (781.48)4 ### 9 60.25% 4 137.64% $ (781.48)

5 ### 5 55.06% $ (781.48)6 52.25% $ (781.48)7 111.46% $ (781.48)8 109.66% $ (781.48)

9 92.80% $ (781.48)10 117.43% $ (781.48)11 94.80% $ (781.48)12 121.31% $ (781.48)13 82.45% $ (781.48)14 160.63% $ (781.48)15 140.15% $ (781.48)16 59.49% $ (781.48)17 90.63% $ (781.48)18 130.17% $ (781.48)19 124.94% $ (781.48)20 46.26% $ (781.48)21 0.00% $ (781.48)22 105.96% $ (781.48)23 91.21% $ (781.48)24 103.67% $ (781.48)25 88.34% $ (781.48)26 93.96% $ (781.48)27 95.52% $ (781.48)28 76.62% $ (781.48)29 135.40% $ (781.48)30 154.11% $ (781.48)31 100.33% $ (781.48)

$ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48) $ (781.48)

Error² Iw Im Id

(Ei+1 - E) (Ei+1 - E)^2 1/n-1

-556.693947694796 $ 0.02 (10,760.07) 115,779,014.28 0.02-11316.7596666928 $ (0.91) (2,334.27) 5,448,793.47

-13651.024748776 $ (1.11) 21,345.97 455,650,235.53 7694.94057337076 $ 0.73 (17,604.15) 309,906,048.92

-9909.20805482492 $ (0.79) 2,719.62 7,396,336.63 -7189.5873763243 $ (0.55) (133.48) 17,815.66

-7323.06269996651 $ (0.57) (9,440.79) 89,128,461.57 -16763.8498266581 $ (1.38) 7,529.63 56,695,392.29

-9234.2155532673 $ (0.73) 12,758.61 162,782,224.07 3524.39816739683 $ 0.37 (9,099.88) 82,807,887.65

-5575.48576862743 $ (0.41) (6,190.09) 38,317,222.76 -11765.5764590013 $ (0.95) (1,237.60) 1,531,652.98 -13003.1761448517 $ (1.06) 16,099.19 259,184,017.63 3096.01692890387 $ 0.34 2,465.35 6,077,970.03 5561.37086447993 $ 0.55 (13,596.17) 184,855,777.23

-8034.79687621255 $ (0.63) 25,051.78 627,591,632.22 17016.9821468276 $ 1.54 (6,526.53) 42,595,573.90 10490.4536742944 $ 0.97 (7,370.47) 54,323,812.09 3119.98475497767 $ 0.34 (3,119.98) 9,734,304.87

0 $ 0.07 (14,946.07) 223,384,982.38 -14946.0691280669 $ (1.22) 7,426.71 55,156,045.45 -7519.35751043732 $ (0.58) 21,057.33 443,411,113.78 13537.9717072534 $ 1.24 (764.21) 584,023.32 12773.7575209818 $ 1.17 7,285.74 53,082,010.83

20059.497759917 $ 1.80 (13,863.34) 192,192,297.21 6196.15410814319 $ 0.60 890.93 793,759.85 7087.08612057567 $ 0.68 (15,005.15) 225,154,564.51

-7918.06514510715 $ (0.62) 14,017.57 196,492,370.65 6099.50849112732 $ 0.59 (1,491.50) 2,224,563.20 4608.01152408248 $ 0.47 11,610.27 134,798,296.49 16218.2783810445 $ 1.47 (8,996.11) 80,930,003.07 7222.16793970682 $ 0.69 16,035.12 257,125,100.35 23257.2887797555 $ 2.08 (33,259.76) 1,106,211,625.46

-10002.4710729945 $ (0.80) (16,162.60) 261,229,791.28 -26165.0757912293 $ (2.19) 36,562.58 1,336,822,316.65

10397.505034661 $ 0.97 (4,823.38) 23,265,023.36 5574.1220563443 $ 0.55 (13,062.41) 170,626,594.42

-7488.28945227928 $ (0.58) (10,115.39) 102,321,145.02 -17603.6809433183 $ (1.45) 21,784.29 474,555,322.09 4180.60977468328 $ 0.43 5,964.85 35,579,454.04 10145.4613270864 $ 0.94 (32,288.55) 1,042,550,575.67

-22143.0904470477 $ (1.85) 17,061.05 291,079,570.83 -5082.03623488442 $ (0.37) 7,251.73 52,587,522.20

2169.6892290354 $ 0.26 (22,221.29) 493,785,524.97 -20051.5961740825 $ (1.67) 25,395.50 644,931,654.99 5343.90844755775 $ 0.53 826.82 683,623.11 6170.72348876462 $ 0.60 (1,984.35) 3,937,633.36 4186.37640117026 $ 0.43

Sumatoria 10,415,320,682.34

d(t)^2 [1/n-1] ( Sum Ei +1 - Ei)^2 221,602,567.71

s(t)^2 (DesvStd)^2 133867445.4121

Error(Di-Pi)

ZCalculada

Desviacion Std K(t) d(t)^2/(s(t)^2 1.65538803722797 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12

$ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12 $ 11,570.12

Z Calculada Z de Menor a Mayor Calculos Z

0.0194281522 -2.19389218013549 1)-0.9105592394 -1.84627388886612 z = -3.5 = .000233-1.1123086665 -1.6655070279377 z = -1.0 = .1586550.73261302159 -1.45393487218095 (.158655 - .00233) * 48-0.7889052192 -1.3813486659307 Freq = 7.60-0.5538496901 -1.22423873979414-0.5653858992 -1.11230866652861 2)-1.3813486659 -1.05631541806409 z = -1.0 = .158655-0.7305659365 -0.949350262486582 z = -0.5 = .3085380.37215501372 -0.910559239376321 (.308538 - .158655) * 48-0.4143436515 -0.796965897760307 Freq = 7.19438-0.9493502625 -0.78890521920472-1.0563154181 -0.730565936504315 3) 0.33513022587 -0.626900747460921 z = 0 = .50000.54820960063 -0.616811679144827 z = -0.5 = .308538-0.6269007475 -0.582351566832264 (.500 - .308538) * 481.53831266632 -0.579666369257992 Freq = 9.190.97422789688 -0.565385899192620.33720175374 -0.553849690091745 4) 0.06754294683 -0.414343651459746 z = 0 = .5000-1.2242387398 -0.371695041614471 z = 0.5 = .691462-0.5823515668 0.0194281521976613 (.691462 - .5000) * 481.23762343928 0.0675429468320121 Freq = 9.191.17157276856 0.2550681608345811.80127585193 0.335130225866617 5)0.60307361619 0.337201753739604 z = 0.5 = .691462

0.6800764487 0.372155013724735 z = 1.0 = .841345-0.6168116791 0.428871072614915 (.841345 - .691462) * 480.59472058122 0.429369479415102 Freq = 7.190.46581120369 0.4658112036938671.46928107756 0.529414426778439 6)0.69175150644 0.54820960063335 z = 1.0 = .8413452.07765941751 0.549311680116049 z = 3.5 =.999767-0.7969658978 0.594720581215002 (.999767 - .841345) * 48-2.1938921801 0.600875659782666 Freq = 7.600.96619438992 0.6030736161892180.54931168012 0.680076448695059-0.5796663693 0.691751506441317-1.4539348722 0.7326130215910260.42887107261 0.9444103714642890.94441037146 0.966194389916524-1.8462738889 0.974227896883901-0.3716950416 1.17157276856090.25506816083 1.2376234392775-1.6655070279 1.469281077555330.52941442678 1.538312666318720.60087565978 1.801275851928680.42936947942 2.077659417513

Intervalo Frrecuencia Esperada (E) Frecuencia Observada (O) (O-E)^2 / E

(-3.5 to -1.0) 7.6 8 0.0210526316(-1.0 to -0.5) 7.19 11 2.0189290682(-0.5 to 0) 9.19 2 5.6252557127(0 to 0.5) 9.19 9 0.0039281828(0.5 to 1.0) 7.19 12 3.2178164117(1.0 to 3.5) 7.6 6 0.3368421053

11.223824112Ʃ (O-E)^2 / E