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Making Nature Useless��Relative Dematerialization & Absolute Peaks��

��

Iddo Wernick��Program for the Human Environment��

��Resources For the Future��

Washington DC��November 5, 2014��

��Report on work done with Jesse Ausubel, Alan Curry��

and Paul Waggoner��phe.rockefeller.edu

Can improving efficiency and changing consumer preferences overwhelm��

rising population and affluence�� to reduce the tons of material ��

that Americans use? The World?

Wernick & Ausubel 2014

Resource Concerns 1.  National Security 2.  Commerce 3.  Environmental Quality

1952

1972 1999 Wernick & Ausubel 2014

Resource Efficiency US Potato yield, production, & area harvested:

1950-2010

Data source: USDA 2013

0

1

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1970

= 1

Area harvested

Production

Yield


Sources: FAO (2014); World Bank (2014)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Inde

x 1961 = 1

Industrial Roundwood Paper and Paperboard Wood Fuel Wood-‐Based Panels Sawnwood

Global Forest Products Intensity of Use ��(Cubic Meters/$ GDP)


Measures of Commodity Use

•  Relative o Intensity of Use (IOU) measured as kg/$GDP o Falling IOU ==> “Dematerialization“

•  Absolute o Absolute use (ABS) measured as kg, kWh, Ha,

liters…

o Falling ABS ==> “Peak”


0.1

1

10

100

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

IOU

/IOU

1940

Plastics

Aluminum

Potash

Phosphate

Paper

Timber

Steel

Lead

Copper

IOU of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-1970

Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; GDP in 2005 dollars; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]

0.1

1

10

100

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

IOU

/IOU

1940

Plastics

Aluminum

Potash

Phosphate

Paper

Timber

Steel

Lead

Copper

1970



0.1

1

10

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

IOU

/IOU

1970

Plastics

Paper

Potash

Phosphate

Timber

Lead

Aluminum

Copper

Steel

1970



1970

ABS of 9 basic commodities: US 1900-2010


0

1

2

3

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

ABS

/ABS

1970

Plastics

Paper

Timber

Phosphate

Potash

Lead

Aluminum

Steel

Copper

Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]

1990

Study on the use of 100 commodities in USA 1900 - 2010.


Group 1 ABS IOU

Group 2 ABS IOU

Group 3 ABS IOU

Behavior from 1970-2010 gives us 3 distinct groups


Data source: USGS 2013, Johnston and Williamson 2013

Group 1 (36/100)

∆ IOU < 0 &

∆ ABS < 0

Wernick & Ausubel 2014 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Asbestos Iodine

Thorium Mercury

Cadmium Sodium Sulfate

Pig Iron Arsenic

Iron Ore Lithium

Clays Thallium

Fluorspar Cotton

Vermiculite Bauxite & Alumina

Iron & Steel Slag Pumice & Pumicite

Magnesium Compounds Manganese

Tin Strontium

Silicon Chromium

Iron & Steel Scrap Rare Earths

Bismuth Talc & Pyrophyllite

Zinc Antimony Soda Ash

Mica Steel

Selenium Copper

Sand & Grave (Const.)

Annual Change 1970-2010

ABS IOU

0

1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

ABS

/ABS

1970

Chromium

Fluorspar

Pig Iron

Iron Ore

Sodium Sulfate

Cadmium

Thorium

Asbestos

ABS for 8 Group 1 Commodities: US

Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center 2013. [Notes: Uses 5 yr. moving average; Legend is ordered top down by value in 2010]

Data sources: USGS National Minerals Information Center, 2013; Johnston and Williamson, 2013. Wernick & Ausubel 2014

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Boron* Water

Cropland Aluminum*

Lime Lead*

Cement Sand & Gravel (Industrial)

Beef Natural Gas

Magnesium Metal Fish

Timber Titanium Dioxide

Sulfur Zirconium Minerals

Phosphate Rock Potatoes

Salt Diatomite

Potash Vanadium* Petroleum

Graphite (Natural) Perlite

Beryllium* Feldspar Nickel*

Pork Cobalt*

Nitrogen (Ammonia) NRO

Stone (Crushed) Abrasives (Natural)

Gypsum Paper & Board

Wheat Uranium Bromine

Silver Tungsten*

Barite Coal Gold

Platinum-Group Metals* Germanium*

NRO (Oil & Gas) Molybdenum*

Titanium Metal* Hafnium* Electricity Tantalum*

Corn

Annual Change 1970-2010

ABS

IOU

Group 2 (53/100)

∆ IOU < 0 & ∆ ABS > 0

0

1

2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

ABS/AB

S 1970

Electricity

Non-Renewable Organics

Nickel

Nitrogen

Cement

Petroleum

Beef

Water



Group 2 Agricultural Inputs & Outputs

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1900 1935 1970 2005

ABS

/ABS

1970

Corn

Soybeans

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Cropland

Water


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

mill

ion

bush

els

Alcohol

Exports

Feed

Food*

Source: USDA Economic Research Service 2013

US uses of corn

Fed to Animals

Fed to Autos

Fed to Americans

* Includes production of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), glucose and dextrose, starch, alcohol for beverages and manufacturing, seed, cereals and other products

Fed abroad


0.1

1

10

1940 1960 1980 2000

Water ABS Water IOU

US water withdrawals: Flat since ~1975

Data source: USGS 2009, Johnston and Williamson, 2013 Wernick & Ausubel 2014

0.1

1

10

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

ABS

/ABS

1970

Diamond (Industrial)

Gallium*

Rhenium*

Indium*

Garnet (Industrial)

Niobium*

Chicken

Helium



Commodities Asia


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Kilo

gram

s pe

r ca

pita

ROK Japan India China


Aluminum use in 4 Asian nations

Data sources: USGS 2014, British Geological Survey

Petroleum use in 4 Asian nations

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Kilo

gram

s pe

r ca

pita

ROK Japan India China

Data sources: USGS 2014, British Geological Survey Wernick & Ausubel 2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Kilo

gram

s pe

r ca

pita

Per Capita

Petroleum - USA

Data sources: USDOE Energy Information Administration 2013 Wernick & Ausubel 2014

Summary •  Novel consistent measure of

–  Resource demand

–  Demand on nature

•  3 Groups (USA)

–  36/100 Commodities that ‘Peaked’ –  53/100 Commodities that have ‘Dematerialized’ relatively and

show signs of falling absolute consumption –  11/100 Commodities used in small quantities that improve overall

system efficiency

•  Asian countries at different stages of development show similar patterns leading to eventual saturation


Thank you for your aQenRon

Program for the Human Environment

The Rockefeller University phe.rockefeller.edu

Data Sources •  British Geological Survey, World Mineral Statistics, 1950-1955, 1960-1965 1970-74, 1980-1984, 1986-1990,

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/worldArchive.html

•  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2014) FAOSTAT. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/F/*/E Accessed January, 2014.

•  Johnston L. and Williamson S.H. 2013. Website. Available at MeasuringWorth, URL: http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/ Accessed October 3, 2013

•  United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 2012a. Data for cropland was obtained from http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Major_Land_Uses/Summary_tables/summary_table_3_cropland_used_for_crops_19102012.xls

•  USDA. 2012b. Data for Leading meat (boneless weight): total availability from http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Food_Availabily_Per_Capita_Data_System/Food_Availability/mtpcc.xls

•  USDA Economic Research Service 2013, http://www.ers.usda.gov/ (accessed 2/2/14).

•  USDOE Energy Information Administration. 2013. Data for Fuels and Electricity use obtained from http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/xls/stb0801.xls Data prior to 1949 from Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970, Table S 45.

•  USGS National Minerals Information Center. 2013. U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 140 (Supersedes Open-File Report 01-006) Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities in the United States. National Minerals Information Center. Available at: http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/#data

•  USGS 2014, International Minerals Statistics and Information, http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/asia.html

•  USGS 2009, Kenny, J.F., Barber, N.L., Hutson, S.S., Linsey, K.S., Lovelace, J.K., and Maupin, M.A., 2009, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2005: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1344, 52 p.

•  Wernick, I.K., Herman, R., Govind, S. and Ausubel J.H. 1997. Materialization and dmaterialization: Measures and trends. Pp. 135-156 in Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Ausubel, J.H. and Langford H.D., eds. http://phe.rockefeller.edu/Daedalus/Demat/

•  World Bank (2014) World Bank data. Available at http://data.worldbank.org. Accessed January, 2014.

Note: “Plastics” data in slides 7 - 10correspond to a category defined by the USGS National Minerals Information Center as Non Renewable Organics (Oil & Gas products). In Wernick et al. (1997) the IOU data for plastics begin in 1943, and represent production data only. Sources: Modern Plastics 37 (5) (1960); data on US production of plastics resin, personal communication with Joel Broyhill, statistics department, Society of the Plastics Industry, Washington, D.C., 20 August 1993. Wernick & Ausubel 2014

Wernick & Ausubel 2014 Wernick & Ausubel 2014