New Information about the Schedule of Censuses in CIS
2009 – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan
2010 – Russia, Tajikistan 2011 – Armenia, Ukraine 2012 – Turkmenistan ? - Uzbekistan, Moldova
Fertility measures
1. Crude Birth Rate, CBR 2. General Fertility Rate, GFR 3. Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR or
Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR 4. Marital Fertility Rate, MFR 5. Total Fertility Rate, TFR (period and
cohort) 6. Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR 7. Net Reproduction Rate, NRR 8. Parity Progression Ratios, PPR
Crude Birth Rate, CBR
Number of births in the studied year divided by average size of the population during the year, per 1,000 persons:
Easy to calculate but depends not only on individual-level childbearing behavior, but also on age and sex distribution of population.
Total Fertility Rate, TFR
Period total fertility rate, PTFR The average number of children a
women would bear in her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates prevailing at the study period.
Total Fertility Rate, TFR, for a given year is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates for that year over the range of reproductive ages.
Net Reproduction Rate, NRR (period)
The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would bear in her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates (for daughters) prevailing at the study period, AND if her daughters experienced the prevailing rates of mortality.
Takes into account both fertility and survival but difficult to calculate (detailed data required). All problems of period indicator (not applicable to real cohorts)
Existing explanations of fertility drop during the 1990s
Economic crisis (uncertainty about the future and increasing the costs of child rearing)
Socio-cultural change (transition towards more western practices of family formation and childbearing)
Soviet pronatalist policies in the early 1980s (benefits for women giving birth to the 3rd child, 3-year paid maternity leave) – accelerated births which otherwise would happen later
Families with many children in Russia
Only 6.6% of families in Russia have more than 3 children
Proportion of families with 3 and more children differs from 53% in Ingushetiya to 1% in St-Peterburg
Families with 3 and more children are the poorest compared to families with less children and have poor housing conditions
However self-rated health of children in these families does not differ from families with less children
New Survey in Russia
Two waves of demographic survey “Parents and children, men and women in family and society” as a part of international scientific program “Generations and Gender.”
First wave was conducted in 2004 and had 11,261 respondents.
Second wave took place in 2007 and had 11,117 respondents
Panel component – 7,786 respondents aged 21-82 years.
Other factors of fertility (between two survey waves)
Having a partner (formal marriage status not important)
Previous children– probability of the second child was almost twice as lower and probability of the third and other child almost 7 times as lower compared to the first child
Rural residence (fertility in rural areas 1.4 times higher than in urban areas)
Maternal age – fertility is obviously higher among younger women (<35 years)
Effect of education and employment status is not strong
Factors of fertility decline (in %) between 1989 and 1999 in
KyrgyzstanKyrgyz women
Russian women
Total changes in TFR -40.9 -41.3
Changes in TFR due to:1. Changes in marriage structure (postponing marriage)
-15.2 -26.1
2. Induced abortions -10.0 -8.5
3. Other (contraception, longer lactation, etc.)
-15.7 -6.7
Decomposition using method of Bongaarts and Potter (1983)
Marriage
Marriage is a legal contract between two individuals to form a sexual, productive, and reproductive union
Important characteristics of marriage:
permanence, joint production, coresidence, and the social recognition of a sexual and childbearing union (Waite, Gallagher)
Measures of marriage
Crude marriage rate – number of marriages per 1000 population
Pros: Easy to calculate Cons: Is affected by population
structure (proportion of birth cohorts at young adult ages)
Russia: Recent trends in marriage
In 2001-2005 marriage rates increased (in 2005 crude marriage rate – 7.5 per 1000 - returned to its levels of early 1990s)
The number of first marriages grew faster than the number of marriages of other orders (by 29.5% for men and 30.2% for women during 1998-2005)
However the proportion of second and higher order marriages now (24-28% of all marriages) is 10% higher than 20 years ago
Total first marriage rate (TFMR)
Total first marriage rate — the probability of first marriage for a person if he/she passed through ages 15–49 conforming to the age-specific first marriage rates of a given year; refers to a synthetic cohort. It is calculated as the sum of the age-specific first marriage rates observed in a given year.
The indicator can exceed 1 in the years of rapid increase in the number of marriages, although it is excluded that a person can contract more than one first marriage.
Indicates popularity of marriage
Degradation of divorce statistics after 1999
Legislation of 1999 – after the court decision former husband and wife were allowed to take their divorce certificates in any local branch of ZAGS rather than in the ZAGS where their marriage was registered
Result: double counting of divorces Attempted to correct in 2003 Increasing number of divorced with
unknown age
Age-specific divorce rates (per married population) in
Kyrgyzstan
Solid line 1999
Dotted line 1989
Blue- men Red -
women
Kyrgyzstan: Marriage did not become more stable
In the 1990s the decline in divorces was slower than decline in marriages
Marriage rate decline by 45% and divorce rate declined by 34%
So the ratio of total divorce rate to total marriage rate increased from 0.22 to 0.27. That is, for 100 marriages there were 27 divorces in 1999 compared to 22 divorces in 1989 (calculated for synthetic cohort)
Family in Russia before the bolshevik revolution
Patriarchal family, many children
Marriages are registered
by church
Marriages in Russia, legislation
Bolsheviks introduced civil marriages as the only recognized union
The Code of 16 September, 1918: Fixed age of women at 16 years
and men at 18 years Equality of spouses Equal rights of children born in
marriage and outside of marriage
The Code of USSR Republics adopted in 1926
Facilitated divorces (only one spouse could request divorce, the other spouse being informed by mail – ‘divorce by postcard’)
Recognized ‘de facto’ marriages (not officially registered)
It was the most liberal marriage legislation in Russian history
Woman in the Soviet Union
Had equal rights with men
Including the right for labor
Soviet poster encourages women to fight outdated rules and customs of the past
Women Who Report Having Suffered Physical Abuse by a Spouse or Partner (survey in 1993-
2001)
Note: Data for Russia cover three urban areas only. All data represent lifetime experiences of abuse.
Tightening of legislation after 1936
The Decree of 27 June 1936 – made divorce costly (first resulted in 65% fall of the number of divorces)
The Decree of 1941 “On taxes on unmarried, single and childless citizens of the USSR”
The Decree of 1944: cancelled the recognition of de facto unions (triggered off the wave of marriages)
Liberalization of legislation after death of Stalin
1954 – marriages with foreign citizens allowed
1955 – abortion was once again permitted
1957 – the tax on the single was annulled
1966 – the divorce procedure was simplified (in 1966-1967 the number of divorces almost doubled)
Marriage in traditional societies
Sexual, matrimonial and reproductive behaviors are tightly bound
Marriage in modern societies
Sexual, matrimonial and reproductive behaviors are not strongly related
Russia and other FSU countries are at the beginning of transition to the modern type of family
New trends in union formation and fertility in Russia
Increasing age at first marriage Growing proportion of cohabitation at
younger ages Rapid decline of fertility at very young ages Postponement of first births in real birth
cohorts Decline of abortions and simultaneous
decline of births before age 25 Increasing contribution of older mothers
into total fertility Decreasing number of marriages stimulated
by pre-marital conceptions
Current trends in marriage Young men do not rush to marry even in
the case of unexpected pregnancy of female partner
Young women tend to marry men with resources
As a result, increase in the mean age at marriage particularly for men (by 2.5 years for men and 1.9 years for women from 1993 to 2005)
Decrease in the number of births at very young ages
Increase in the mean difference between husband and wife ages (from 2 years to 2.8 years)
Increasing proportion of cohabitation
Proportion of unregistered unions increased from 11.4% in 1994 to 32.6% in 2002 for age group 18-19 years
In the age group 20-24 years this proportion increased from 6.7% in 1994 to 19% in 2002
Similar trends for older age groups Demographers called it “silent
revolution” in marriage
Abortions in Russia
1988 - 4.6 million 1990 - 3.92 million 1995 - 2.57 million 2000 - 1.96 million 2002 - 1.78 million
Source: Russian Ministry of Health
Changing pattern of abortion
By the late 1980s, the number of women using modern contraceptive methods to prevent births exceeded the number who used abortion to do so.
Russian contraceptive access has increased in part through efforts by the Russian government and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Reproductive Health Trends in Eastern Europe and Eurasia
Report of Population Reference Bureau (2003)
by Lori Ashford
Based on population surveys
Two U.S.-based agencies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and ORC Macro, helped national institutions conduct surveys in Eastern Europe and Eurasia from 1993 to 2001.
The two types of surveys, Reproductive Health Surveys (RHS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), interviewed women from a representative sample of households in each country to gather extensive information on fertility, family planning, maternal and infant health, and other reproductive health topics.
Major support came from the U.S. Agency for International Development, with funding in some countries from the United Nations Population Fund and UNICEF.
Abortions In most countries, abortions are most
common among women ages 20 to 34. Most women who reported having an
abortion said that they did not want and could not afford another child. The vast majority of abortions follow unintended pregnancies, which mainly occur among women who do not use contraception or who use traditional methods that have relatively high failure rates.
Between 71 percent and 90 percent of unintended pregnancies end in abortion, indicating that women are strongly motivated to avoid an unplanned birth.
Trends in abortion rates in selected countries
In many Central Asian countries decline in abortion rates was caused by emigration of Russians who have higher abortion rates compared to local ethnic groups
Reproductive health indicators in 1996-2001, FSU
Lifetime number of abortions per woman
% Mothers receiving prenatal care (1st trimester)
Births Outside Medical
Facilities (%)
Russia 2.3 83 1.8
Ukraine 1.6 66 0.9
Armenia 2.6 54 8.5
Azerbaijan 3.2 45 26.3
Georgia 3.7 63 7.8
Kazakhstan 1.4 60 1.6
Kyrgyzstan 1.5 72 3.8
Turkmenistan
0.8 72 4.2
Uzbekistan 0.6 73 5.9
Potential Need for Modern Contraceptive Methods*
*Includes married, fecund women who say they would prefer to avoid a pregnancy but who either are not using any contraception or are using a traditional method such as withdrawal or periodic abstinence.