Demographic and Health Prospects in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (oPt)
Allan G. Hill PhD Andelot Professor of Demography
Harvard School of Public Health
Main points…
Everywhere there are close links between population and politics but these reach extreme levels in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory (oPt)
Special features of the demography of the oPt include a) relative high fertility and hence growth rates and b) high density and thus propensities to migrate high
Intense competition for resources in crowded, rapidly growing communities exacerbated by absence of a strong state and institutions able to referee attempts by sub-groups to seize power/resources by force
The area of Israel & the oPt is very small…
CountryArea in sq
miles
Washington DC 68
US Virgin Islands 135
Gaza 141
Singapore 247
Rhode Island 1545
West Bank 2183
oPt 2324
Delaware 2489
Connecticut 5544
El Salvador 8124
Israel 8463
New Jersey 8722
New Hampshire 9351
Vermont 9615
Politics and population Rights to the small territory of pre-
1948 Palestine has been disputed for generations
Israel’s growth and security has been built on immigration, never more rapid than in the 1990s
Longer term displacement of the Palestinian population well established but now more recently replaced by enclosure
Immigration to Israel was very high in 1990-91, sustaining growth in many “development towns” putting pressure on resources for all
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Period
Nu
mb
ers
of
imm
igra
nts
Total Olim
FSU
Source: Aliya and Klita Dept, Jewish Agency for Israel; Ministry of Immigration Absorption.
Population in Thousands
Country or area 2005 2015
Israel 6,725 7,838
Occupied Palestinian Territory 3,702 4,996
Total 10,427 12,834
Of which: West Bank 2,372 3,110
Gaza 1,390 1,980
Source: S DellaPergola American Jewish Year Book, 103, 2003, 3-68 and Statistical Abstract of Palestine no. 6
Palestinians in the World 2004: estimates
oPt 3,637,529
Israel 1,084,918
Jordan 2,839,639
Syria 442,699
Lebanon 421,292
Saudi Arabia 314,226
Kuwait and the Gulf 166,086
Other Arab countries 186,743
USA 238,721
Other foreign countries 303,987
Total 9,635,840
Source: Statistical Abstract of Palestine 2005
Population density in the oPt is already much higher than elsewhere in the region…
Source: UN World Population Prospects: 2004 Revision
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mortality levels in the oPt are good as measured by the under 5 mortality rate
Source: UN World Population Prospects: 2004 Revision
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Unde
r 5 m
orta
lity
rate
per
100
0
Fertility trends and projections for the oPt are higher than neighboring Arab countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950-
1955
1960-
1965
1970-
1975
1980-
1985
1990-
1995
2000-
2005
2010-
2015
2020-
2025
2030-
2035
2040-
2045
oPt
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Egypt
Source: UN World Population Prospects: 2004 Revision
The percentage of the population under age 15 is second only to Yemen
Source: UN World Population Prospects: 2004 Revision
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% u
nd
er
ag
e 1
5
Balkanisation of the oPt prevents development
Bethlehem and Jerusalem cut off from each other by the Wall, new settlement in background
15
Gaza Strip: Shrinking Resources
Environment 50% land habitable 38.5% agricultural Security zone: 17%
Primary Water Source Coastal aquifer wasted in next 10
years Net annual deficit = 31 million m3 Three wastewater treatment
plants Two functioning partly 70-80% domestic wastewater
discharged into environment untreated
Projected wastewater to increase fourfold between by 2025
Sources: OCHA (2006). The Humanitarian Monitor; PCBS (2006). Labour Force Survey: 2006 Q3
16
Gaza Strip: Increasing pressure on employment and poverty
159,000 new jobs required by 2010Assuming current labor force participation rate 36.5%
Household poverty increasing
75% (2001) – 79% (2006)Definition: % Below the poverty line
based onreported income taking into
consideration family size
Unemployment increasing 17% (1999) – 36% (2006)ILO Definition
17
Special Challenges for Gaza Strip
Lack of clarity of the residual status of the Gaza Strip: ‘disputed territory,’ ‘foreign territory,’ ‘entity,’ ‘occupied territory’, treated as international border by Israeli domestic law
Question of the status of the Oslo agreements and its impact on the unity of the Gaza Strip and West Bank
Lack of clarity within international donor community and humanitarian organizations (efforts by international community to increase passage of goods and people through Rafah Crossing and Karni Crossing)
Proliferation of agreements and coordination mechanisms
Lack of clear legal framework for governance, internal security, donor development schemes, trade and foreign relations
Absence of clarity of the responsibilities of the international community for the welfare of the population of Gaza
18
The Population & Politics Framework
Constant deterioration Human security undermined further by population pressure Key rules disputed, consistent policies lacking Legitimacy of authority contested Constant low-level violence
Competing frames of reference Multiplicity and simultaneity of different initiatives & ambitions Obstruction by local, regional, and international actors
Breakdown of conflict resolution efforts Paralysis of local policy practice and initiatives Self-imposed constraints on international and multilateral action Denial of the socio-economic impact of demographic challenges
Conclusions and recommendations Given past growth, even with a sudden drop in
fertility, rapid rates of natural increase for years to come
Immigration to Israel and possible return migration of Palestinian exiles only adds to these pressures
Closure and other barriers to emigration and migration exacerbate already dire situation
No amount of development assistance can create development without addressing basic human security issues and normal pre-conditions for development
Absence of clear boundaries for both Israel and Palestine with communication between them produces instability
State monopoly of power the missing essential precursor for development
20
Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict Research, Harvard University www.hpcr.org
UN Office for the Co-Ordination of Humanitarian Affairs www.ochaopt.org
AG Hill, CJ Clark, I Lubbad, C Bruderlein. Hope and despair over health in Gaza. BMJ 2006;333:845-846 (21 October)
S DellaPergola. Demographic Trends in Israel and Palestine: Prospects and Policy Implications. American Jewish Year Book, 103, 2003, 3-68.
J Pederson, S Randall and M Khawaja. Growing fast: the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Oslo: FAFO, 2001.
Roy, Sara M. Failing peace: Gaza and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Ann Arbor, MI : Pluto, 2007.
Some useful sources: