ZENARIOS SETTING CONTEXT TO THE ZNE SOLUTION SPACE Smita …zneroadmap.researchenergy.net/docs/Zenarios_informal_session.pdfZENARIOS –SETTING CONTEXT TO THE ZNE SOLUTION SPACE ACEEE

ZENARIOS – SETTING CONTEXT TO THE ZNE SOLUTION SPACE

ACEEE 2018

Aug 14, 2018

Smita Gupta

Jeremy Smith

2©2018 ITRON CONFIDENTIAL PROPRIETARY

OVERVIEW


» Develop an analysis of the most critical RDD&D gaps that need to be addressed to achieve

California’s goals of zero net energy buildings for all new construction of residential buildings by

2020 and for commercial buildings by 2030.

» Results of the analysis will be used by Energy Commission staff to develop a research roadmap

that strategically targets future EPIC investments in a manner that provides optimal benefits to

Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) electric ratepayers, and maximizes the use of public research and

development investments.

PROJECT BACKGROUNDBased on CEC EPIC funded project for Technology Research Gap Analysis for ZNE


PROJECT TEAM


OVERALL METHODOLOGY

• Technology List

• Prioritization metrics

• Cost, Performance and

Barriers

TECHNICAL

ASSESSMENT

LITERATURE

REVIEW

STAKEHOLDER

SURVEYS

GAPS

ANALYSIS

PRIORITIZATION

FRAMEWORK

• Highest priority

technologies for different

scenarios

• Define RDD&D gaps

GAP

ARTICULATION

SME

INTERVIEWSHIGH PRIORITY

TECH

RESEARCH

PRIORITY

• Research gaps,

barriers, cost and

performance

targets


zTAP TOOLZNE Technology Assessment and Prioritization Tool

Technology prioritization based a multidimensional framework of factors matched

to a context as a ZNE scenario


zTAP TOOLKey Principles

The assessment is an objective prioritization and minimizes

potential for bias or skewTRANSPARENCY

SCALABILITY

FLEXIBILITY

Include more technologies in the future as the framework can allow

for addition of new and emerging technologies to the mix.

Adapting the framework to allow alignment with evolving polices

and not be stranded in time to get shelved and obsolete easily


zTAP TOOLKey Factors

LOAD SHAPING

GHG REDUCTION

TECHNOLOGY READINESS

COMMUNITY-SCALE SITE-LEVEL

TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS

MIXED-FUELALL-ELECTRIC

ENERGY IMPACT

CONTEXT SCENARIOS

OTHER CRITERIA

X-FACTOR


ENERGY IMPACT

ENERGY USE

EUI per market

sector/climate

APPLICABILITY

Market sector

Climate Zone

BUILDING GROWTH

Ft2 per market

sector/climate

RELATIVE SAVINGS

Savings per end use

category%

0 1 2 3

X X X

Overall energy benefit based upon reduction in energy use intensity (EUI) within

the respective end use category, scaled by projected growth for applicable

building types and climate zones.


LOAD SHAPING POTENTIAL

Ability of technology/strategy to actively shape load profiles, such as flattening

a profile (eliminating duck curve), creating a predictable profile, or other load

shifting.

No ability to

shape load

(commissioning

app)

0 1

Low ability to shape

load (e.g., building

envelope, static

building fenestration)

2

Medium ability to

shape load (e.g.,

thermal mass,

dynamic fenestration)

3

High ability to shape

load (energy storage,

thermostats, predictive

controls)


GHG REDUCTION POTENTIAL

The ability of the technology/strategy to reduce GHG emissions. These could

range from technologies that provide load shifting, or directly use a fuel that lead

to reduced GHG.

No GHG

reduction

(building design

tools)

0 1

Low GHG reduction

(vacuum insulated

panels, fiber-optic

daylighting)

2

Medium GHG

reduction (grid-

integrated HPWH, DC

microgrid)

3

High GHG reduction

(CO2 heat pumps,

thermoelastic /

elastocaloric cooling)


TECHNOLOGY READINESS

Potential for the technology to reach maturity by 2025 for full market adoption

by 2030 based on current stage and expected stage in 5-7 years by stakeholders.

No potential for

market maturity

(very nascent or

theoretical)

0 1

Low tech readiness

(proof of concept)

2

Medium tech

readiness

(demonstration)

3

High tech readiness

(early market

adoption)


CONTEXT SCENARIOMatched with technology solution space

EN

ER

GY

BE

NE

FIT

LO

AD

SH

AP

ING

GH

G R

ED

UC

TIO

N

SITE LEVEL

MIXED FUEL

SITE LEVEL

ALL ELECTRIC

COMMUNITY

SCALE

ALL ELECTRIC

COMMUNITY

SCALE

MIXED FUEL

COMMUNITY-SCALE

SITE-LEVEL

MIXED-FUEL ALL-ELECTRIC


CONTEXT SCENARIOMatched with technology solution space

EN

ER

GY

BE

NE

FIT

LO

AD

SH

AP

ING

GH

G R

ED

UC

TIO

N

SITE LEVEL

MIXED FUEL

SITE LEVEL

ALL ELECTRIC

COMMUNITY

SCALE

ALL ELECTRIC

COMMUNITY

SCALE

MIXED FUEL

COMMUNITY-SCALE

SITE-LEVEL

MIXED-FUEL ALL-ELECTRIC

• District heating and

cooling systems

• Advanced lighting

control systems

(ALCS)

• Electrochromic

fenestration

• Air sealing

• Micro / Nanogrids

• DER Controls

• PV + Storage

• Heat pump water

heaters


CONTEXT SCENARIO

No relevance

0 1

Low relevance

2

Medium relevance

3

High relevance

COMMUNITY-SCALE SITE-LEVEL MIXED-FUELALL-ELECTRIC


X-FACTOR

Negative score

-3 0

No score

3

Positive score

This is a wild card or extraneous factor which can be used to

determine priority in alignment with evolving policy and priorities.

• Code addressability

• Scaling of benefits

• Research already well-funded by other entity (DOE, ETP,

NYSERDA, etc.) or already near maturity

• Support resilient communities

-2 -1 1 2


RESEARCH PRIORITY INDEX

Where:

EI = Energy Impact

LS = Load Shaping

GHG = GHG Reduction

TR = Tech Readiness

𝒂 𝑬𝑰 + 𝒃 𝑳𝑺 + 𝒄 𝑮𝑯𝑮 + 𝒅 𝑻𝑹 + 𝒆 𝑪𝑺 + 𝒇 𝑺𝑳 + 𝒈 𝑨𝑬 + 𝒉 𝑴𝑭 + 𝒊 𝑿𝑭

a-i = Coefficients are the weights that total 100 to imply a % allocation to each factor

CS = Community-Scale

SL = Site-Level

AE = All-Electric

MF = Mixed-Fuel

XF = X factor


DemonstrationZTAP TOOL

ENERGY IMPACT CALCULATORDemonstration


ENERGY IMPACT

ENERGY USE

EUI per market

sector/climate

APPLICABILITY

Market sector

Climate Zone

BUILDING GROWTH

Ft2 per market

sector/climate

RELATIVE SAVINGS

Savings per end use

category%

0 1 2 3

X X X


ENERGY IMPACTData Sources

Technology Variables Description Source

Energy Benefit

Energy benefit % of end or whole buildingTeam expertise

Lit review

End use/s or whole building the tech

addresses

All the end uses that the technology is

able to address or whole building

Team expertise

Lit review

EUI associated with end use or

whole building

The per sq ft energy use associated with

the end use for a building type in a climate

zone

CEUS for Commercial

RASS for Residential

Applicability

Building type SF/MF/All CommSurvey 2

Team expertise

Market sector New construction/retrofitSurvey 2

Team expertise

Climate Type All applicable climate zonesSurvey 2

Team expertise

Projected Growth Projected building growth Growth in sq. ft. for the building type in CA

by 2030Energy Commission

DISCUSSION


DISCUSSION

» Do the 9 factors adequately describe Zenarios?

• Are we missing any critical factor?

» What other ways could we be defining NZ or ZE or ZNE and all variations?

» How do electric vehicles fit into this picture?

» How to better quantify the GHG impact metric?

» Other potential sources for energy impact data?


DISCUSSION CONTD.

» What are the potential use cases?

• Research priority for funding support

• Defining ZNE policy in terms of the weights placed on the 9 factors that define the space.

• Shortlist of tech to consider during design phase

» Who would have use for such a definition and priority list of tech?

• Campus?

• City?

• Utilities MUNIS and IOUs?

• State agencies?

• Community?

• Jurisdiction?

THANK YOU

www.itron.com

[email protected]

[email protected]

http://zneroadmap.researchenergy.net/



PROJECT WEBSITE



Documents

ZENARIOS SETTING CONTEXT TO THE ZNE SOLUTION SPACE Smita …zneroadmap.researchenergy.net/docs/Zenarios_informal_session.pdfZENARIOS –SETTING CONTEXT TO THE ZNE SOLUTION SPACE ACEEE