World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management

By

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO

Geoffrey Love, Ph.D.Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Departments

CCL Technical Conference16-18 February, 2010

Antalya, Turkey

www.wmo.int

WMO

Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness

• In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!)

• In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan)

– New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues)

– International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA

Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological,

hydrological and climate services!

Tsunami1%

Wild Fires 2%

Windstorm 43%

Earthquake22%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

2%Flood 25%

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by

Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Economic losses

Loss of lifeNumber ofevents

Volcano1,6%

Tsunami0,4%

Epidemic, insects13%

Wild Fires 3%

Windstorm 27%

Earthquake8%

Drought5%

Extreme Temp.

4%

Flood 33%

Slides 5%

Volcano1%Tsunami

12%Epidemic,

insects10%

Windstorm 15%

Earthquake16%

Drought30%

Extreme Temp.

5% Flood 10%

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural

hazards (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses

Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise !

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Need forMulti-sectoral risk

management

Drought

TransportationTransportationAral SeaAral SeaDisasters impacts

many sectors!

Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

Six Components of An Effective National Disaster Risk Management Framework

Risk TransferRisk Assessment

Historical Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response

Prevention (Reduce economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CATastrophe insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training across agencies

Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency)

3

2

5

4

1

6

Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks!

Hazard Analysis and

Mapping

Exposure and

Vulnerability

Potential Loss

Estimates

This information is

critical for decision-making

and development of

strategies to reduce the risks

Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping

Impacts: population density agricultural land urban gridInfrastructureBusinesses

Number of lives at risk

$ at riskDestruction of buildings and infrastructure

Reduction in crop yields

Business interruptionNeed for historical and

real time data Statistical analysis tools

climate forecasts and trend analysis

Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis

tools

Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset

and exposure information

4: Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools

Hazard Model

Vulnerability /Damage Model

Probable Loss estimate

Exposures

Historical Statisitical

hazard analysis events

Land coverand elevation

Hazardestimate

Input database

Model

Product

Key

Cost Benefit

Scenario Events

Portfoliolosses /

mitigation options

Local data

Populationdistribution

Possible Inputs

Economic data

1: Hazard Assessment

Hazardmaps

1: Hazard Mapping

3: Risk Mapping& Loss Estimation

2: Damage Functions

2: Asset Inventory and Valuation

Risk maps

Estimating the Risk with Consideration for Climate Variability and Changes!

Future climate hazard trends

(seasonal, inter annual, decadal)

+,

Risk Assessment Requires a Variety of Climate Services….

• Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata

• Statistical hazard analysis and mapping tools

• Forward looking hazard trend analysis- Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts

- Probabilitic climate forecasts and long-term hazard trend analysis (seasonal to interannual, decadal)

WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that ….

Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

Nu

mb

er

of

co

un

trie

s t

ha

t a

rch

ive

d

ata

fo

r th

e s

pe

cif

ied

ha

zard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Strong w

inds

Thunder

storm

or l

ight

ning

Drough

t

Heat w

ave

Flash

floo

d

River

floodin

g

Hails

torm

Dense

fog

Cold w

ave

Heavy

sno

w

Smoke

, Dust

or H

aze

Hazar

ds to

avi

atio

n

Earth

quakes

Coasta

l flo

oding

Tropic

al c

yclo

ne

Forest

or w

ildla

nd fire

Lands

lide o

r mudsl

ide

Freez

ing

rain

Storm

surg

e

Tornad

o

Wate

rborn

e haz

ards

Airborn

e su

bstanc

es

Mar

ine h

azar

ds

Sandst

orm

Avala

nche

Tsuna

mi

Volcan

ic e

vents

Deser

t locu

st s

war

m

Main needs are:

• Modernisation of observation networks

• Data rescue

• Data management systems

• Maintaining standard historical hazard database and metadata

• Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling

Over 70 % of NMHS are challenged in supporting risk

assessment!!!

NationalGovernment

DRR coordination mechanisms

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health, Agricuture (etc.)

Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries

feedback

feed

bac

k

War

nin

g D

isse

min

atio

n

feedback

24

3

5

54

4

5

Increasingly more countries are developping Early Warning Systems for fast on-set events….

Local Government

responsible for emergency

preparedness and response

Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination

1

Warning dissemination

Community Emergency Plans and Prepared

Warning dissemination

WMO has partnered up with other agencies to Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines

for Early Warning Systems

First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO and Springer Verlag in 2010

Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard ApproachPlanning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles

Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more good practices on the way)

Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services

Bangladesh Cyclone

Preparedness Programme

Cuba Tropical

Cyclone Early Warning System

France “Vigilance System”

Shanghai Multi-Hazard

Emergency Preparedness Programme

USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning

System

Germany The Warning

Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst

BUT economic

losses are on the way up!

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

0.05

2.66

0.17

1.73

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

decade

Loss of life from hydro-

meteorological disasters are decreasing…

4 11 1424

47

88

160

345

103

495

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

decade

…. to support sectoral risk assessment and management!

• Infrastructure and Urban planning• Land zoning• Insurance / Finance • Agricultural productivity and food security • Tourism• Health epidemics• Water resource management

Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities

Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms

What type of Financial tools?

Which Risks? Who Could Benefit?

Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and

derivatives

Regional Catastrophe

Insurance Facilities

Other emerging products

Government

Companies

Individuals

Other

Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these

markets!)Seasonal to inter-annual

climate forecasts

Decadal climate trend analysis

Long term trend analysis (long-term

market strategy)

Financial risks

WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)

USER Perspectives were discussed:

• Information requirements (data and forecasts):– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)

– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)

– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts

– Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk, solvency analysis and long-term strategy)

• Technical support and Service delivery needs

WMO Workshop on Catastrophe and Weather-Indexed Insurance

December 2007, WMO HQ

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

Major Initiatives Underway for Development of Climate Services for (Re)Insurance

• Drivers are – Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the

companies to report of their climate risk– Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate

research community to develop relevant climate services – Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have

initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many more)

• WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives for benefit of more countries around the world

Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist)

Season to yearNext hour to

10 daysDecade Long term

Scenarios

Short to medterm weather forecasts:

Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings

Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of

severity and intensity of tropical cyclones

Future Decadal trend analysis: of

severity and intensity of tropical

cyclones

Climate Change

scenarios – IPCC Process

Emergency planning activation and responseEvacuations, inventory, preparing houses

Strategic PlanningBuilding codesInfrastructure & Urban Development and RetrofittingLand Zoning and Planning

Urban & coastal Emergency PreparednessInventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds

Emergency ServicesGovernment Authorities Insurance Public, Media

Urban plannersLocal to national GovernmentsBanksInsurance

DE

CIS

ION

M

AK

ER

SD

EC

ISIO

NS

SE

RV

ICE

S

Local – National GovernmentInsuranceSuppliersPublic, Media

NegotiatorsParlimentarianLocal/nationalgovernmentsPrivate sectorInternational negotiations and agreementsNational policies and legilation

1. Identification of various user-communities and their requirements

– (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance)

2. Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards

3. Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR

– Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM– Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools

4. Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR

WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM

Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO

South East Europe

Central Asia and Caucasus

South East Asia

SADC

Central America and Caribbean

WMO Shanghai MH-

EWS Demo

Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in Multi-Hazard EWS

Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 – Present)

1. Disaster and Climate Risk Management are interlinked development issues

2. Development of Climate Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming

3. There is need for:a. Historical and real-time hazard databases and statistical hazard analysis

toolsb. Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR applicationsc. Identification, segmentation of users and understanding of their needs

and requirements (public and private sectors)d. Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk assessment for various

sectors

Key Messages:

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

For more information please contact

Thank youThank youMerciMerci

СпасибоСпасибоGraciasGraciasشكراشكرا

谢 谢 谢 谢

Thank youThank youMerciMerci

СпасибоСпасибоGraciasGraciasشكراشكرا

谢 谢 谢 谢

Leslie MaloneScientific OfficerClimate Prediction & Adaptation BranchClimate & Water DepartmentWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel: 41.22.730.8220Fax: 41.22.730.8042Email: LMalone@wmo.int