OMM WMO Early Warning Systems Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization 29-30 May

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www.wmo.int

Early Warning SystemsEarly Warning Systems

Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi

Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological Organization

29-30 May 2013Skopje, Macedonia

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO OMM

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Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

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Outline

1. Impacts of meteorological, hydrological and climate-related Hazards

2. The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015

3. A Comprehensive National Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

4. What is an Early Warning Systems?

5. Examples of Good Practices in EWS

6. 10 common principles for successful EWS

7. International and Regional Cooperation in Science and technology to support Early Warning Systems

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WMO

South-East Europe(Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR

Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), and Turkey)

Main

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4WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

South-East Europe

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Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.be Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

South-East Europe

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South-East Europe

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South-East Europe

2003 Summer heat wave: 788 deaths in

Croatia

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South-East Europe

Forest fire in Croatia in 1983: $US 0.5 billion

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9Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009

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Hyogo-Framework for Action 2005-2015 in a nut shell…

Risk Financing and TransferRisk Assessment

QUANTITATIVE MULTI-HAZARD-MULTI-LEVEL, MULTI-SECTOR RISK ANALYSIS

Hazard, exposure and vulnerability databases

Statistical and forward looking approaches

PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE: early warning systems emergency planning

PREVENTION and MITIGATION: Sectoral Medium to long term planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture…)

Gov Investments, trust funds (ex-ante, post disaster)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Governance and Institutional Framework (Policy, Legislation, legal framework, institutional coordination)

(Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard)

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5

4

2

6© World Meteorological Organization

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• Policy and legislative process (Roles and responsibilities)

• Early Warning Systems development and on-going operations with Disaster Risk Management and local Communities with a sustainability approach

• Socio-economic sectors:– Transport (air, land, water)– Agriculture and food security– Water Resource Management– Land zoning – Infrastructure and urban planning– Health– Tourism

A Multi-Sector, Multi Level Issue

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Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.be Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

South-East Europe

Multi-Hazard Issue

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Understanding the Risks Provides the Foundation for Preventing Disaster Risks!

Hazard Analysis and

Mapping

Exposure and

Vulnerability

Potential Loss

Estimates

This information is

critical for decision-making

and development of

strategies to reduce the risks

Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping

Impacts: population density agricultural land urban gridInfrastructureBusinesses

Number of lives at risk

$ at riskDestruction of buildings and infrastructure

Reduction in crop yields

Business interruptionNeed for historical and

real time data Statistical analysis tools

climate forecasts and trend analysis

Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis

tools

Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset

and exposure information

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Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies

National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

1 2

3 4

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Marine

Health (etc.)…

Geological

COMMUNITIES AT RISK

hazard warning

NationalGovernment

(emergency systems)

Hydrological

Meteorological

National Technical Services

disasterresponse

Many countries are still in response and relief mode!

haz

ard

war

nin

g

Local government

Disa

sterresp

on

se

hazard warning

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NationalGovernment

DRR coordination mechanisms

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health, Agricuture (etc.)

Capacity Development and Coordinated National Technical Agencies

feedback

feed

bac

k

Community Preparedwar

nin

gs

warnings

feedback

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3

5

54

4

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There is need for investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems at national to local levels

Local Government

responsible for emergency

preparedness and response

Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination

1

warnings

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Other National Agencies Involved in DRR(e.g. Hydrological Services, Ocean Services, Health Services, Space)

Global & Regional Specialized Meteorological & Climate

Centers (GPC, RSMC and RCC)

Government (national to local) Socio-economi sectors Private Sector NGOs General Public Media Etc...

Core Operatioinal Components

National Meteorological Service (NMS)

Observing network Operational Forecasting Telecommunications Human Resource Data Management Systems Etc...

Data, Forecast, Analysis Products & Services for:

Quality Managment Systems (QMS)

National DRR Stakeholders

RequirmentsService Delivery

Feedback

Agreements&

SOPs

GTS/WISAgreements & SOPs

Agreements & SOPs

National DRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks

RegionalDRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks

Nat

ion

alR

egio

nal

f

b

a

e

e

d

Risk Analysis Early Warnnings Sectoral Planning

Disaster Risk Financing and insurance

c

Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services to support DRR Decision-Making

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Increasing level of operational coordination with primary coordinators of emergency preparedness and response

Increasing Level of operational coordination and cooperation with other national technical and sectoral agencies for early detection, monitoring and

development of warnings

Type I Type II Type III

Hazard fully under the

mandate of NMS

Hazard under joint mandate of

NMS with another technical agency

(e.g., NHS)

Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMS

contribute

e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall,

snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone

e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc.

e.g. locust, health epidemic, man-made

hazards

Example of cooperation of NMS with technical and EWS stakeholders in context of different hazard types

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Examples of Good practices in Multi-Hazard

Early Warning Systems and Lessons Learned

• Bangladesh• Cuba• French Vigilance

system• Germany• Japan• Shanghai (Mega City)• USA

Ref. Golnaraghi, M. (Ed.) “Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: A compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles,” Springer Verlag (2012)

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Ten common principles for

successful EWS

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10 common principles for successful Early Warning Systems (1/2)

1. Political recognition of the benefits of EWS along with effective planning, legislation and budgeting

2. Effective EWS are built upon four components:(i)) hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting; (ii) analyzing risks and incorporation of risk information in emergency planning

and warnings; (iii) disseminating timely and “authoritative” warnings with clarity on the

responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings; (iv) community emergency planning and preparedness and the ability to activate

emergency plans to prepare and respond

3. Roles and responsibilities of all EWS stakeholders and their collaboration mechanisms clearly defined and documented

4. Capacities aligned with resources across national to local levels (sustainability)

5. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information are used to carry-out risk assessments at different levels

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6. Clear, consistent and actionable hazard warnings, with risk information and issued from a single recognized authoritative source

7. Timely, reliable, redundant and sustainable warning dissemination mechanisms

8. Emergency response plans targeted to the individual needs of the vulnerable communities, authorities and emergency responders

9. Regular training and education programmes in risk awareness and emergency response actions

10. Effective feedback mechanisms throughout levels of the EWS for system improvement over time

10 common principles for successful Early Warning Systems (2/2)

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International and Regional Cooperation in Science and technology

to support Early Warning Systems

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WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation: Coordinates Operation Meteorological Network to support National Meteorological and Hydrological

Services

189 Members

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Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)

Washington

Montreal

Exeter ECMWF

Toulouse

Moscow

Pretoria

Melbourne

Beijing

Seoul Tokyo

LC-SVSLRF: Lead Centre for Standardized Verification System for Long Range ForecastsLC-LRFMME: Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

LC-SVSLRF

LC-LRFMME

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Activity Specialization

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Geographical Specialization

ACMAD

ICPAC

SADC-DMC

DMCSEE

CIIFEN

Regional climate institutions with strong WMO support

Sand & Dust Storm Warning & Assessment System Centres

Monsoon Activity Centres

Global/Regional Operational Network of WMO

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Regional harmonization, interoperability of national early

warning systems is critical to managing trans-boundary

hazards and sustainability of national systems

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For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.ChiefDisaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. +41.22.730.8006Email. [email protected]

Thank You

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Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Example 1: France Vigilance System

Strong wind

Strong rainfall

Thunderstorm

Snow/Ice

Avalanches

Heat waves

Initiated in coordination by Météo-France and French civil security, Vigilance system activates cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities

Legislation

Planning

Organizational linkages

Training and feedback

+ Flood warning map

national to local authorities

Hazards

Level of warning

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29““America’s Weather EnterpriseAmerica’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life” : Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life” ““America’s Weather EnterpriseAmerica’s Weather Enterprise: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life” : Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and Your Way of Life”

Example 2: USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

• The U.S. National Response Framework (NRF) provides the guiding principles that enable all response partners to deliver a unified national response to disasters and emergencies, Maintained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

NOAA TEAMNOAA TEAM END USERSEND USERSPARTNERSPARTNERS

Saving Lives Through PartnershipsSaving Lives Through Partnerships

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City

Prefecture

Volunteer fire fighter

Prefectural LAN

FDMA Satellite network

Predigested maps and information

　　

　

　

　

□ □ ×県土砂災害警戒情報第号　　　 △ △ □ □ □ □平成年月日時分△ △ 　 △ △ 　県地方気象台共同発表

○ ○警戒対象市町村：市、× × 町今後2時間以内に、大雨による土砂災害の危険度が非常に高くなる見込みです。土砂災害危険箇所及びその周辺では厳重に警戒して下さい。警戒対象市町村

での今後３時間以内の最大1時間雨量は多いところで60mmです。

問い合わせ先○○○-○○○-○○○○(□□県砂防課)××× -××× -×××× (□□地方気象台)

20km/h

30km/h

実況強雨域（1時間30mm以上）

△ △地震の際に震度4以上となった地域

凡例発表対象市町村

長さは1時間の移動距離に対応Disaster prevention

information systemJMA

Zoom up the area of concern

○○市大雨警報発表中

Information Sharing System based on Advanced IT Infrastructure

Cell-phone

Data Format for Cell-Phone Services

Example 3: Japan Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

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• a 3-tiered warning management system (time dimension) that differentiates between 5 risk levels

Early Warning Hazard Bulletin for Germany

daily updated7 to 2 days ahead

Prewarning48 to 6 h ahead

for preparation only incase of expected

severe weather warning

Regional hazard bulletin24 h ahead

updated 4 times per day

(Severe) Weather Warning 12 to 0 h ahead

The spatial and the timelyscale of all warning information

are closely connected

Example 4: Germany - Warning Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst

• FeWIS a customized information platform- one system for different authorities – developed in co-operation with disaster management organisations

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Multi-Hazard, Multi-Agency, Grass root

Example 5: Shanghai City Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency

Response Programme (Mega City)

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ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL

MODELS

DIFUSSION OF WARNINGS

RESPONSE ACTIONS

TV

RADIO

PHONE - FAX

INTERNET

GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE,

RESIDENTS

Example 6: Cuba Cyclone Early Warning

Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top-down warning and response mechanisms

WarningWarning

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Example 7: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

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• First International Early Warning Conferences (Potsdam, 1998) (http://www.geomuseum.com/ewc98/)

• Second World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002)

– Johannesburg Plan of Implementation

• Second International Early Warning Conferences (Bonn, 2003) (http://www.ewc2.org/pg000001.htm) – Platform for Promotion of Early Warnings

• World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, January 2005)

– Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

• G8 Summit and UN General Assembly (2005, 2006)

International Attention to Early Warning Systems with Multi-Hazard Approach (1/2)

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EWS References

• M. Golnaraghi (ed) (2012), “Institutional Partnership in Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems:A Compilation of Seven National Good

Practices and Guiding Principles, Book Published by Springer Verlag (2012)

• Golnaraghi, M., J. Douris, J. B. Migraine (2008), “Saving Lives Through Early Warning Systems and Emergency preparedness,” Risk Wise, Published by Tutor Rose, Page 137-141.

• Golnaraghi, M., J. Douris, C. Baubion (2011),“Good Practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems,” Risk Returns, Published by Tutor Rose, Page 95-97

Documents

OMM WMO Early Warning Systems Dr. Maryam Golnaraghi Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization 29-30 May