Why has union density declined?. ► John Commons Union growth is cyclical, structural,and institutional ► Cyclical: Economic factors that affect labor

Why has union density Why has union density declined?declined?

Why has union density Why has union density declined?declined?

►John CommonsJohn CommonsUnion growth is cyclical, structural,and Union growth is cyclical, structural,and institutionalinstitutional

►Cyclical: Economic factors that affect Cyclical: Economic factors that affect labor demandlabor demand►Structural: Demographics, industrial Structural: Demographics, industrial composition, part-time vs full-timecomposition, part-time vs full-time►Institutional: laws, enforcement, type of Institutional: laws, enforcement, type of governmentgovernment

Structural FactorsStructural Factors

►Female Labor Force ParticipationFemale Labor Force Participation►Minority population growthMinority population growth►EducationEducation►Shift in population South and WestShift in population South and West► Job growth in traditionally nonunion Job growth in traditionally nonunion

sectors (services, retail)sectors (services, retail)► Job declines in traditionally unionized Job declines in traditionally unionized

sectors (manufacturing)sectors (manufacturing)

Structural Factors: Structural Factors: AssessmentAssessment

►Female Labor Force Participation: Female Labor Force Participation: small impact, women more likely to small impact, women more likely to vote unionvote union

►Minority population growth: small Minority population growth: small impact, blacks more likely to vote impact, blacks more likely to vote union, Hispanics mixedunion, Hispanics mixed


►Education: small impact due to union Education: small impact due to union growth in teachers, government growth in teachers, government employees, health professionalsemployees, health professionals


► Job growth in traditionally nonunion sectors (services, Job growth in traditionally nonunion sectors (services, retail): IMPORTANTretail): IMPORTANT

19501950 19801980 20012001

ServiceService 11.9%11.9% 19.8%19.8% 31.0% 31.0%

RetailRetail 14.9%14.9% 16.6%16.6%17.8%17.8%

► Job declines in traditionally unionized sectors Job declines in traditionally unionized sectors (manufacturing): IMPORTANT(manufacturing): IMPORTANT

ManufacturingManufacturing 33.7%33.7% 22.4%22.4%13.4%13.4%

Trans/UtilTrans/Util 8.9%8.9% 5.7%5.7% 5.3%5.3%


►But declines in membership density But declines in membership density within traditionally unionized sectors within traditionally unionized sectors are also IMPORTANTare also IMPORTANT

19851985 20022002

ManufacturingManufacturing 25%25% 14%14%

Trans/UtilTrans/Util 37%37% 23%23%

TradeTrade 7%7% 4.5%4.5%

F.I.R.E.F.I.R.E. 3%3% 1.9%1.9%


► Female Labor Force Participation: small impact, Female Labor Force Participation: small impact, women more likely to vote unionwomen more likely to vote union

► Minority population growth: small impact, blacks Minority population growth: small impact, blacks more likely to vote union, Hispanics mixedmore likely to vote union, Hispanics mixed

► Education: small impact due to union growth in Education: small impact due to union growth in teachers, government employees, health teachers, government employees, health professionalsprofessionals

► Shift in population South and West: IMPORTANTShift in population South and West: IMPORTANT► Job growth in traditionally nonunion sectors (services, Job growth in traditionally nonunion sectors (services,

retail): IMPORTANTretail): IMPORTANT► Job declines in traditionally unionized sectors Job declines in traditionally unionized sectors

(manufacturing): IMPORTANT(manufacturing): IMPORTANT► Decreases in density within industries: IMPORTANTDecreases in density within industries: IMPORTANT

Surveys of union interest Surveys of union interest among unorganized among unorganized workers show Broad-workers show Broad-

based support of about based support of about 33%33%

Why don’t they join?Why don’t they join?

Supply and demand for union Supply and demand for union servicesservices

►Structural changes don’t explain within Structural changes don’t explain within sector declinessector declines

► Institutions have not changed since Taft-Institutions have not changed since Taft-Hartley (’47) and Landrum –Griffin (’59) Hartley (’47) and Landrum –Griffin (’59) (except for changes in direction of political pressure)(except for changes in direction of political pressure)

►Economic ModelEconomic Model Demand-side: Workers trade off returns Demand-side: Workers trade off returns

from union representation (wages, benefits, from union representation (wages, benefits, job conditions, job security, ….) against job conditions, job security, ….) against costs (dues, rules, potential job insecurity, costs (dues, rules, potential job insecurity, ….)….)

ExampleExample

LIUNA: Laborer’s International LIUNA: Laborer’s International Union of North AmericaUnion of North America

http://www.liuna.orghttp://www.liuna.org

Supply and DemandSupply and DemandApplication: Dickens and Leonard, “Accounting for Application: Dickens and Leonard, “Accounting for

the Decline in Union Membership, 1950-1980.” the Decline in Union Membership, 1950-1980.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review Industrial and Labor Relations Review (April 1985)(April 1985)

ConclusionsConclusions

► 1/3 of decline due to decreased economic 1/3 of decline due to decreased economic growthgrowth

► <1/3 of decline due to decreased <1/3 of decline due to decreased organization rateorganization rateOrg rate = percent of unorganized workers who Org rate = percent of unorganized workers who

participate in an electionparticipate in an election

► 1/4 of decline due to decrease in union 1/4 of decline due to decrease in union success rate in certification electionssuccess rate in certification electionsSuccess rate = percent of pro-union votes on Success rate = percent of pro-union votes on

certification electioncertification election

ProblemProblem

► Is decreased union effort and success Is decreased union effort and success due to declining worker demand, due to declining worker demand, declining union supply, or rising firm declining union supply, or rising firm resistance?resistance?

►Farber and Krueger, “Union Farber and Krueger, “Union Membership in the United States: The Membership in the United States: The Decline Continues”Decline Continues”

DataData

►Nationwide surveys of union sentiment Nationwide surveys of union sentiment in 1977, 1984, 1991, 1992in 1977, 1984, 1991, 1992

► Is decline due to decrease in proportion Is decline due to decrease in proportion expressing interest in unionization or expressing interest in unionization or an increase in proportion who want an increase in proportion who want unions but cannot get services unions but cannot get services (frustrated demand)?(frustrated demand)?

Venn Diagram of Union Venn Diagram of Union InterestInterest

► U= In union or notU= In union or not D=Want union or notD=Want union or not

U=1D=1 U=0

D=0U=1D=0

U=0D=1

Venn Diagram of Union Venn Diagram of Union InterestInterest

► U= In union or notU= In union or not D=Want union or notD=Want union or not

U=1D=1

U=0D=0

U=0D=1

ConclusionConclusion

►Decrease due to decreased interest in Decrease due to decreased interest in unionization, holding demographics, unionization, holding demographics, industry structure constant.industry structure constant.

►Farber and Krueger believe there is no Farber and Krueger believe there is no evidence of decreased union density evidence of decreased union density due to increased anti-union animus by due to increased anti-union animus by firms.firms. (Unless decline in pro-union sentiment is (Unless decline in pro-union sentiment is

driven by firm actions)driven by firm actions)

Evidence on Union SupplyEvidence on Union Supply

► Fiorito and Jarley, Fiorito and Jarley, IRRA 55IRRA 55thth Annual Annual ProceedingsProceedings, 2003, 2003

► 1995: new AFL-CIO leadership pledges $20 1995: new AFL-CIO leadership pledges $20 million for organizationmillion for organization

► Unions need to add 300,000 workers per year Unions need to add 300,000 workers per year to maintain densityto maintain density

► Little evidence of rising effort or membership Little evidence of rising effort or membership after John Sweeney’s call to organizeafter John Sweeney’s call to organize

Theory of Union SupplyTheory of Union Supply

► Farber,Farber, “ “Union Success in Representation Union Success in Representation Elections: Why Does Size Matter?.” Elections: Why Does Size Matter?.” Industrial and Industrial and Labor Relations Review Labor Relations Review (January 2001)(January 2001)

Facts:Facts:► Union organization effort declined precipitously Union organization effort declined precipitously

since the mid 70s.since the mid 70s.► Average size of unit in elections declined over timeAverage size of unit in elections declined over time► Union success on certification elections fell Union success on certification elections fell ► Union success fell most in large firms.Union success fell most in large firms.

Theory of Union SupplyTheory of Union Supply

► Farber,Farber, “ “Union Success in Representation Elections: Why Does Union Success in Representation Elections: Why Does Size Matter?.” Size Matter?.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review Industrial and Labor Relations Review (January (January 2001)2001)

Conclusions:Conclusions:► Unions would be expected to face declining win rates over Unions would be expected to face declining win rates over

time as the most promising prospects are organized first.time as the most promising prospects are organized first.► Decrease in union organization effort is consistent with the Decrease in union organization effort is consistent with the

declining supply of promising prospectsdeclining supply of promising prospects► There has always been a lower union success rate in large There has always been a lower union success rate in large

firms. The growing gap in election success rates between firms. The growing gap in election success rates between large and small bargaining units is consistent with a simple large and small bargaining units is consistent with a simple application of the law of large numbers when probability of application of the law of large numbers when probability of success is < .5success is < .5

► Could also be that large firms fight harder against unions.Could also be that large firms fight harder against unions.

Management Resistance to Management Resistance to Unions: How Important is it?Unions: How Important is it?

► Kleiner, JLR (Summer 2001)Kleiner, JLR (Summer 2001)

► Firms can resist union organizational efforts Firms can resist union organizational efforts through carrots and sticksthrough carrots and sticks

► Carrots (wages, benefits, revenue sharing, Carrots (wages, benefits, revenue sharing, participatory management, …)participatory management, …)

► Sticks include:Sticks include: Hiring consultants (annual expense $200 million)Hiring consultants (annual expense $200 million) Legal resistanceLegal resistance Illegal resistanceIllegal resistance

Evidence of rising illegal Evidence of rising illegal resistanceresistance

► Rising importance or worker reinstatement Rising importance or worker reinstatement due to illegal firingdue to illegal firing

► Rising 8(a)(3): Union discrimination; and Rising 8(a)(3): Union discrimination; and 8(a)(5): good faith bargaining filings8(a)(5): good faith bargaining filings

► Minnesota sample of 26 contentious Minnesota sample of 26 contentious organization drivesorganization drives 14/26 led to NLRB investigations14/26 led to NLRB investigations Union successful in only 3/26 casesUnion successful in only 3/26 cases Kleiner citing Freeman: 40% of union decline due Kleiner citing Freeman: 40% of union decline due

to employer resistanceto employer resistance

Why would firms risk illegal Why would firms risk illegal activity, penalties?activity, penalties?

►Penalties too low ($2,733/worker)Penalties too low ($2,733/worker) Low compared to some other federal Low compared to some other federal

violations violations

►Returns to resistance can be very Returns to resistance can be very largelarge

Richard Hurd. “Union Free Bargaining Richard Hurd. “Union Free Bargaining Strategies and First Contract Failures”Strategies and First Contract Failures”

►Even if union wins certification election, Even if union wins certification election, firm may be able to avoid bargainingfirm may be able to avoid bargaining About 25% of certifications fail to result in a About 25% of certifications fail to result in a

first contractfirst contract►Certification gives the union exclusive rights to Certification gives the union exclusive rights to

represent the bargaining unit for minimum of 12 represent the bargaining unit for minimum of 12 months (contract bar), maximum of three years.months (contract bar), maximum of three years.

►After 12 months, if union fails to get a contract, After 12 months, if union fails to get a contract, employees may ask for decertificationemployees may ask for decertification

Bargaining delay strategiesBargaining delay strategies

►Technical refusal to bargainTechnical refusal to bargain NLRB decisions on bargaining unit, NLRB decisions on bargaining unit,

remedies on election conduct not remedies on election conduct not appealableappealable

ULP decisions are appealableULP decisions are appealable Refusal to bargain leads to ULP charge, Refusal to bargain leads to ULP charge,

appeals can drag out processappeals can drag out process Example: IBEW and Tempco Electric Example: IBEW and Tempco Electric

HeatersHeaters


►Defiant bargainingDefiant bargaining Violate requirement to bargain in good Violate requirement to bargain in good

faith because benefits outweigh costsfaith because benefits outweigh costs Example: IAM and S&S ScrewExample: IAM and S&S Screw

►Evasive bargainingEvasive bargaining Attempt to comply with good faith Attempt to comply with good faith

bargaining while dragging out the processbargaining while dragging out the process Example: SEIU and Freedom Crest Nursing Example: SEIU and Freedom Crest Nursing

HomeHome


►Peremptory bargainingPeremptory bargaining Adopt nonnegotiable terms that will not Adopt nonnegotiable terms that will not

be acceptable to the Unionbe acceptable to the Union Example: BCTW and Dawn Frozen FoodsExample: BCTW and Dawn Frozen Foods

Nearly 75% of failures to reach first Nearly 75% of failures to reach first contract use these methods, 18% of new contract use these methods, 18% of new certificationscertifications

Documents

Why has union density declined?. ► John Commons Union growth is cyclical, structural,and institutional ► Cyclical: Economic factors that affect labor