Water Scarcity and the Prospect of National and

International Water Wars/Conflict

Geovanny PerezDepartment of SociologyUniversity of Florida

To Start Thinking About Water…In what ways is water used by our society

and by you in your personal lives?

Some Terms Water shortage is used to describe an absolute shortage where levels of available

water do not meet certain defined minimum requirements. The actual quantity that determines a per capita minimum may differ from place to place.

Water scarcity is a more relative concept describing the relationship between demand for water and its availability. The demands may vary considerably between different countries and different regions within a given country depending on the sectoral usage of water. A country with a high industrial demand or which depends on large scale irrigation will therefore be more likely to experience times of scarcity than a country with similar climatic conditions without such demands.

Water stress is the symptomatic consequence of scarcity which may manifest itself as increasing conflict over sectoral usage, a decline in service levels, crop failure, food insecurity etc.. This term is analogous to the common use of the term "drought".

Water security is a situation of reliable and secure access to water over time. It does not equate to constant quantity of supply as much as predictability, which enables measures to be taken in times of scarcity to avoid stress.

Source: The African Water Page

Some TermsWater shortage is

used to describe an absolute shortage where levels of available water do not meet certain defined minimum requirements. The actual quantity that determines a per capita minimum may differ from place to place.

Some TermsWater scarcity describes the

relationship between demand for water and its availability. The demands from country to country and region to region depends on the sectoral usage of water. A country with a high industrial demand or which depends on large scale irrigation will therefore be more likely to experience times of scarcity than a country with similar climatic conditions without such demands.

Some TermsWater stress is the

symptomatic consequence of scarcity which may manifest itself as increasing conflict over sectoral usage, a decline in service levels, crop failure, food insecurity etc.. This term is analogous to the common use of the term "drought."

Some TermsWater security is a

situation of reliable and secure access to water over time. It does not equate to constant quantity of supply as much as predictability, which enables measures to be taken in times of scarcity to avoid stress.

Over Population and/or Social Structure?

United States China India0

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Total Freshwater Withdrawal (km^3/yr)

Source: Pacific Institute

Over Population and/or Social Structure?

United States China India0

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2005 Population (millions)

United States China India0

100200300400500600700

Total Freshwater Withdrawal (km^3/yr)

Over Population and/or Social Structure?

United States China India0

200

400

600

800

1000

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Per Capita Withdrawal (m^3/p/yr)

Use of Water in U.S. (2005)Public Supply

11%

Irrigation 31%

Aquaculture2%Mining

1%

Thermoelectric Power49%

Industrial4%

Livestock1%

Domestic1%

Water Wars, Water ConflictThe Middle East stands at the precipice of

another major natural resource crisis. Before the twenty-first century, the struggle over limited and threatened water resources could sunder already fragile ties among regional states and lead to unprecedented upheaval within the area. -- Joyce Starr and Daniel Stoll of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC

…many of the wars of this century were about oil. . . wars of the next century will be over water….Efforts to manipulate the global supply of petroleum have been a leading phenomenon of the final decades of the 20th century. Control of the sources of fresh water could be equally significant in the opening decades of the next. -- World Bank Vice-President Ismail Serageldin (1995)

Water Wars, Water Conflict

Water Wars, Water ConflictWater scarcity is not a product of supply not

meeting demand at national levels, “but of uneven patterns of economic development and relentless transformations in human–nature relations, that are amongst the defining characteristics of modern industrialism and capitalism.” – Jan Selby, “Oil and Water: The Contrasting Anatomies of Resource Conflicts”

Water Conflicts in the U.S.Great Lakes region,

the rest of the U.S.Maryland vs.

Washington, D.C.Alabama, Florida

vs. GeorgiaAreas in Florida

North of Orlando vs. the rest of Florida