Presentation Water Scarcity Pakistan

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    NATIONAL MANAGEMENT COLLEGESenior Management Wing

    9th Senior Management Course

    SIMULATION EXERCISE-II

    Zaraat: Hikmat-e-Amli Aur Amal Daraamad

    SYNDICATE-3

    Salman Choudhry PSPINTER-PROVINCIAL COMMISSION ON WATER

    MANAGEMENT AND WATER DISTRIBUTION AMONGST

    THE PROVINCES OF PAKISTAN

    1

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    Sequence

    Introduction

    Research Methodology

    Terms of Reference

    Historical perspective of water disputes

    IRSA

    Provincial set up

    Analysis

    Recommendations

    2

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    Introduction

    2011 2025

    3

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    Is this our future?

    4

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    Key Facts of the Irrigation System

    Major Reservoirs 3

    Barrages/Head-works 18

    Interlink Canals 12

    Canal Systems 44

    Length of water courses 107,000 Kms

    Length of Canals 56,073 Kms

    Average Water Available 104.7 MAF

    Ground Water Estimates 41.6 MAF

    Irrigated Land 44.5 Million Acres6

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    7

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    Research Methodology

    Primary:

    Year Book 2004-05 & 2005-06, Ministry ofWater & Power.

    The Indus Water Treaty 1960.

    Water Apportionment Accord 1991.

    National Water Policy Draft 2006.

    Vision 2030, Planning Commission, Islamabad.

    Economic Survey 2009-10.

    8

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    Contd,

    Secondary Sources:

    Problems and Politics of Water Sharing andManagement in Pakistan, edited by Pervaiz IqbalCheema, Rashid Ahmed Khan & Ahmad Rashid Malik.

    Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), 2007. The Politics of Managing Water edited by Kaiser

    Bengali Oxford University Press 2003.

    Kala Bagh Dam and Sindh; A View Point by

    Muhammad Idris Rajput, Sindh Graduates Association(SGA) April 2005.

    Indus Water Treaty in Retrospect by Mr. Bashir A.Malik, Lahore 2005.

    9

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    Contd,

    Interviews:

    Mr. Rab Nawaz, Secretary Irrigation Punjab

    Mr. M. H. Siddiqi, Consultant Irrigation Punjab

    Mr. Tariq Hameed, ex Chairman WAPDA

    Ch. Muhammed Amin IRSA Islamabad

    Syed Muhammed Ali Shah, GM Water, WAPDA Interview with Mr. Javed Majeed, ex Secretary

    Irrigation Punjab.

    10

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    Terms of Reference

    To conduct critical appraisal of the waterdistribution & management structure

    To have an overview of the various committeesconstituted for water distribution amongst theprovinces

    To analyze the role of IRSA and effectiveimplementation of its decisions

    To evaluate the water distribution andmanagement perspective of each province

    To study the Water Policy of the Government

    11

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    Contd,

    To understand why Pakistan is suffering water

    losses and becoming water stressed country

    To study what are the reasons of insufficient

    water storage capacity

    To examine international best practices and

    their applicability in Pakistan

    To understand the plans for improving water

    storage for the future

    12

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    History of water disputes

    13

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    Contd,

    Darlay Committee 1929

    Anderson Committee 1935

    Rau Commission 1942

    Draft Agreement 1945

    Operational Agreement 1947

    Indus Water Treaty 1960

    14

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    Contd,

    Akhtar Hussain Committee 1968

    Fazal e Akbar Committee 1970

    Adhoc Decision of Federal

    Government 1971

    Anwar ul Haq Commission 1977

    Haleem Commission 1982

    Water Accord 1991 15

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    Calm Waters WAA 1991or an Illusion

    16

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    Indus River System Authority (IRSA)

    Created under Act XXII 1992 as a result of

    WAA 1991

    4+1 Members All provinces represented for 3 years

    One member from Federal Government

    Chairman on rotation amongst the

    members for 1 year

    17

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    Role of IRSA

    Regulation & Distribution of surface water

    Settlement of any dispute between the

    provinces

    Monitor the water discharge from the RIM

    stations on the rivers & canals

    Compile 10 days situation report for water

    distribution

    Operating the telemetry system

    18

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    Water Apportionment Accord (WAA) 1991Para 2

    PROVINCE KHARIF RABI TOTAL

    (MAF)

    Punjab 37.07 18.87 55.94 48.92%

    Sindh* 33.94 14.82 48.76 42.64%

    KPCivil canals**

    3.481.80

    2.301.20

    5.783.00

    5.06%

    Baluchistan 2.85 1.02 3.87 3.38%

    Total 77.34+ 1.80

    37.01+1.20

    114.35+3.00

    100%

    *Including already sanctioned urban & Industrial uses for Karachi

    **Un-gauged civil canals above the RIM Stations

    19

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    Para 4 WAA 1991

    In case there is surplus water (including floodsupplies and future storages) it will bedistributed as follows:

    Punjab 37% Sindh 37%

    Baluchistan 12%

    KP 14%

    Total 100 %

    20

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    Para 6 WAA 1991

    The need for storages, wherever feasible onthe Indus and other rivers was admitted andrecognized by the participants for planned

    future agricultural development Sindh agreed to develop consensus on

    Kalabagh Dam

    KP Government didnt agree on this clauselater on

    (M.H. Siddiqi Consultant & Participant of WAA 1991)

    21

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    Para 14 (b) WAA 1991

    The record of actual average system uses for

    the period 1977-82 would form the guideline

    for developing a future regulation pattern.

    Those 10 daily uses would be adjusted prorata to correspond to the indicated seasonal

    allocations of the different canal systems and

    would form the basis for sharing shortages &surpluses on all Pakistan basis

    22

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    Disputes

    In 2003 Musharaff regime made the federal

    representative permanently from Sindh

    Unable to develop consensus on futurestorage plans

    Para 14 is a bone of contention for Sindh

    (what if there is shortage of water) A new formula known as three tier devised

    23

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    Three tier formula since 2003

    Scenario I

    Water Availability is less than Actual Average SystemUsing 1977-82 timeline water to be Distributed as per14 (b) of the WAA 1991

    Scenario IIWater Availability is greater Actual Average SystemUsing timeline 1977-82, but less than Para 2 of WAA1991, then the water is distributed on:

    Actual Average System Uses are protectedBalance available as per Para 2 i.e. 10-daily

    approved by CCI

    24

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    Contd,

    Scenario III

    When Water Availability is greater than Para 2

    of WAA 1991, the water is distributed as per:

    Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI are

    protected

    Balance as per Para 4 of the WAA 1991

    25

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    Comparison of para 2 & 14 (b)

    PROVINCES Para 2 Para 14 (b) Difference

    MAF % MAF % MAF

    (2-4)

    %

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7Punjab 55.94 48.92 54.51 53.06 1.43 12

    Sindh 48.76 42.64 43.53 42.37 5.23 45

    Baluchistan 3.87 3.38 1.63 1.59 2.24 19

    KP 5.78 5.06 3.06 2.98 2.72 24

    Total 114.35 100 102.73 100 11.62 100

    26IRSA, Islamabad 2011

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    Provincial Set Up

    27

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    Punjab

    Head works & Barrages 13Main Canals 25

    Length of Main Canals & Branches 6,389 kms

    Length of Distributaries & MinorCanals 30,706 kms

    Length of Inter River Link Canals 845 kms

    Off Take capacity of main Canals 120,000 cusecs

    Off Take Capacity of Link Canals 110,000 cusecs

    Gross Command Area 23.35 million acres

    28Irrigation Department, Government of Punjab 2011

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    Perspective of Punjab

    Punjab feels that IRSA is not functioning on fairbasis

    The storage capacity of Terbala & Mangla isdwindling

    Lack of funding for the existing canal system

    Over exploitation of underground water (800,000tube wells)

    Economic Value of waterRs. 84 per acre Kharif

    Rs. 50 per acre Rabi

    29

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    Balochistan

    (Area Under Cultivation acres)

    1971-72 2008-09 % Change

    Canals 600,000 1,203,326 101%

    Wells 9,600 31,051 223%

    Tube wells 45,600 563,601 1136%

    Karez 67,200 188,520 -62%

    Artificial Tanks 4,800 0 -100%

    1,159,200 1,986,499

    30Irrigation Department, Government of Balochistan 2011

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    Perspective of Balochistan

    Karez system in shambles

    Tube wells lowering ground water

    Spate inundation due to flash floods Joined the bandwagon of opposition to

    Kalabagh

    31

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    Sukkur Barrage

    32

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    Sindh

    Head works & Barrages 3

    Main Canals 13

    Length of Main Canals & Branches 6,963 Kms

    Length of Distributaries & Minor Canals 10,599 Kms

    Length of Inter River Link Canals 0

    Off Take Capacity of Main Canals 138,210 cusecs

    Off Take Capacity of Link Canals 0

    Gross Command Area 12.12 million acres

    33Irrigation Department, Government of Sindh

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    Perspective of Sindh

    Not happy with present sharing system

    Shortages in Kahrif season

    Storage in Mangla

    Operation of Links Canals in Punjab

    Intrusion of sea into the Indus Delta

    34

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    Gomal Zam Dam

    35

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    KP

    Reservoirs 14

    Flow Irrigation Schemes 83

    Lift irrigation Schemes 45Irrigation Tube wells 356

    Average Water Withdrawals 6 MAF

    Length of Canals 4,335 Kms

    Gross Command Area 2.28 Million Acres

    36Irrigation Department, Government of KP 2011

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    Canal Systems in KP

    Length Discharge Area

    10 Canal

    Systems

    2,974 Kms 12,948

    Cusecs

    1.21 million

    acres

    37

    Irrigation Department, Government of KP 2011

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    Perspective of KP

    Less storage capacity

    Stress on Chashma Right Bank Canal System

    No protective embankments on Rivers Swat,

    Kunhar & Kabul

    Creating grounds not to build Kalabagh

    Dam

    Royalties from Terbela

    38

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    Mistrust

    Lack of trust amongst the provinces especiallybetween Sindh & Punjab (no water for evenwashing dead bodies)

    Difference on the interpretation on the WAA

    1991Construction of additional storage (para 6)

    Minimum escapage to sea (para 7) 10 MAF or39 MAF

    The mode of sharing shortages para 14(b) or3 tier formula

    40

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    Future perspective

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    Water Projections

    Sectors Water 2010

    (MAF)

    Water 2025

    (MAF)

    Additional

    Requirement

    Agriculture 100 128 28

    Municipal &

    Rural Water

    Supply

    5.8 12.2 6.4

    Industry 2.2 4.8 2.6

    Total 108 145 37

    42WAPDA 2003, & Courtesy Mr. Tariq Hameed ex Chairman WAPDA

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    Where do we stand

    River Basin Capacity (MAF) Days

    Nile River 132 1000

    Colorado 59.62 900

    Sutlej Beas

    India Total

    11.32

    245 120

    Yellow River 68.95 120

    Columbia 34 60Indus Basin 18.37 30

    World 8,000 3,000

    43WAPDA 2011

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    Response

    44

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    Draft Water Policy 2006

    Initiated in 2002 and completed in 2006

    Still lying with Ministry of Water & Power Federal

    Government since 2007

    Contention of the previous government was that

    the new government may approve the policy

    The views of all stakeholders not reflected

    Cold feet by Federal Government despite thebleak future

    45

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    Principles of the policy

    Realization

    Improvement

    Community participation

    Management of available water

    High Yields Crops

    Increase the water storage capacity

    46

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    Loss of Storage Capacity

    Original

    Capacity

    (MAF)

    Loss 2003 Loss 2010 Loss 2015 Loss

    2020

    Terbala

    (1974)

    11.62 3.14

    (27%)

    3.95

    (34%)

    4.43

    (38%)

    4.98

    (43%)

    Mangla

    (1967)

    5.88 1.21

    (21%)

    1.60

    (27%)

    1.63

    (28%)

    1.79

    (30%)

    Chashma

    (1971)

    0.87 0.38

    (44%)

    0.48

    (55%)

    0.50

    (57%)

    0.50

    (57%)

    Total 18.37 4.73

    (26%)

    6.03

    (33%)

    6.56

    (36%)

    7.27

    (40%)

    48WAPDA 2010

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    Sluicing for Dams

    49

    A b Th

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    A rose between two Thorns

    (India & Afghanistan)

    Baghliar Dam

    Kishanganga

    Uri II

    Dam on River Kabul in Afghanistan

    Carbon Rights

    Future of the IWT 1960

    50

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    Efficient Irrigation Techniques

    Sprinkler System:

    It is still in infancy

    stage

    Not widely used inPakistan

    Used in Mid West

    USA

    Energy Intensive

    Expensive installation

    51T.E. Bilderback & M. A Powell, North Carolina USA

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    Contd,

    52

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    Contd,

    Drip System

    Orchards

    Salinity can effect

    the lines

    Not widely used

    in Pakistan

    Can reduce

    wastage by 70%

    53T.E. Bilderback & M. A Powell, North Carolina USA

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    Contd,

    Change the crop Pattern

    Paddy and Sugar Cane is not suitable

    for Southern Sector Introduction of High Yield and Less Water

    Intensive Crops

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    Recommendations

    55

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    Short Term 2-5 years

    Active Conflict Resolution Mechanism

    Review of Federal Nominee to IRSA

    Regulation of Ground water usage

    Water rates

    Legislation on water related issues

    Safety of dams

    Contamination of surface & Ground waters

    Safe Drinking water

    56

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    Medium Term 5-7 years

    Lining of canals to stop water seepage (45-50%)

    New telemetry system

    Coordination between Meteorological and

    Irrigation departments

    Drip & Sprinkler system

    Interprovincial accord on new storage capacity

    They can do it! Look at 18th Amendment &

    NFC Award

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    Contd,

    Small dams on hill torrents Mirani Dam

    IWT has served for 50 yrs, Pakistan must make

    best use of the option to build dams on

    western rivers to lay its claim

    Sluicing technology for dams

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    Long Term 7-10 years

    There is no alternative, but to

    build new dams

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    The Future

    Schemes Storage MAF

    Basha Dam 9.04 To be started

    Kalabagh Dam 6.1 Doldrums

    Akhori Dam 7.04 Design Complete

    Kurram Tengi

    Dam

    0.92 Completed

    ManglaDam

    Raising

    8.01 Complete, filling not

    started

    60

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    Contd,

    Schemes Storage MAF

    Satpara Dam 0.93 Complete

    Sabakzai Dam 0.03 Design completed

    Mirani Dam 0.2 Complete

    Munda Dam 0.67 Design complete

    Gomal Zam Dam 0.65 Complete

    TOTAL 33.59

    61

    WAPDA 2004 & 2010

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    Plan B

    In case of any laxity or calamity no alternative

    plan can be offered. The syndicate believes

    that this is the only way out as mentioned

    The source of water is not infinite and weneed to store water. The only available

    technology or solution is to build dams

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    The future

    63

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    Thank you