Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttaranchal state, India

Ulka Kelkar, TERI

International workshop on climate change

and sustainable development

7-8 April 2006, New Delhi

Water and agriculture Greatest vulnerability in

unsustainably managed ecosystems that are currently water stressed (IPCC)

General reduction in quantity of available runoff in all river basins, except Narmada and Tapi (Natcom); Ganges and Krishna basins show major declining trends (Indo-UK)

Increased summer snowmelt and decline in snow storage in dry season

MDG targetHalve by 2015 the proportion of people who suffer from hungerHalve proportion of people without safe drinking water by 2015

X Plan goals4% pa growth of agricultural GDP [3.2% in 1980-96, 2.6% in 1996-02, 1.8% in 2002-04]

Projected impact of climate change on rainfall in Lakhwar sub-basin

Frequency analysis of daily rainfall intensities over two time periods

0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 17

24

49

138

106

127

40

2 3 2 03 3

7 7 5

1619

14

28

35

62

84

77 79

50

15 3 1 3 4

1

1014

12

2318

24

43

58

76

62

96

34

0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 310

4

17

40

108 109

154

47

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

> 200 150-200

140-150

130-140

120-130

110-120

100-110

90-100

80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40 20-30 10-20 5-10 1-5 <1 -0.1

Rainfall intensity

Fre

qu

en

cy (

in d

ays

)

July (2041-60) July (1961-98) August (1961-98) August (2041-60)

Heavier intensity rainfall that generate runoff reduce in number

Light intensity rainfall that get lost in satisfying soil moisture needs as well as in meeting ET demands increase in number

Narula and Bhadwal (2003)

What is the capacity of households in the study region to cope with current climatic variability and water stress?

Are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would help them adapt in the long run?

What are the possible scenarios of interventions that can help adapt to water stress due to climate change?

Research questions

Study region

Digitized streamsSubbasinsStreams

Outlets# Linking stream added Outlet

##

##

##

###

#

#

#

# #

# #

#

#

#

##

2

8

6

3

7

1

5

4

9

Koti

Damta

Simla

Solan

Dadahu

Lakhwar

Yamnotri

Tajewala Dehradun

Chakrata

Mussorrie

Yashwant Nagar

UTTARKASHI

SIRMAUR DEHRADUN

SOLAN

TEHRI GRAHWAL

YAMUNA NAGAR

SHIMLA

0 20 40 Kilometers

Upper Yamuna sub-basin

Lakhwar watershed

A journey to Lakhwar

Agriculture in Uttaranchal hills

Fragmented terraces - “Equitable, if impoverished, land distribution”

Only 14% irrigated area in hill districts; 46% in foothills and plains

Tradition of water harvesting – neglect and disrepair

Springs are drying up - “too little – too much”

Migration – lack of labour

Identification of water stressed

areas

Water balance modelling

SWAT – surface runoff, soil moisture development and lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge

MODFLOW – groundwater movement

Areas 1 and 2 are most water stressed

Lakhwar

Chhotau

Preliminary observations from participatory case

studies

Lakhwar Chhotau

Joshi, 19.6182

Harijan, 5.331Hindu, 0.951

Caste stratification and land holdings

Harijan, 8.774

Rajput, 68.692

Brahman, 0.000

Vaishya, 0.800

(a) Lakhwar village Average landholding size 2.5 ha

(b) Chhotau villageAverage landholding size 0.8 ha

Community perceptions about climate and water stress

Earlier one could not see the stars throughout shravana Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but the

rains have been coming late every year As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the

livestock from the hilly slopes, to save them from being drowned. Now the streams are all dry.

But for many years there has been no snowfall in December. There is late snow in January-February which melts away and does not feed into the streams.

35-40 years it used to snow for stretches of 2-4 days when livestock were kept in the house and men would stay indoors and play cards. The snow was like manure – knee deep snow that covered the ground and retained soil moisture underneath.

% of respondents Lakhwar Chhotau Rainfall has declined over the last 10-15 years 90 % 87.5 % Onset of rainfall has become late 65 % 25 % Onset of rainfall has become erratic 32 % 69 %

Stresses and coping measures

Plant less water-

intensive crops, 10

Find other jobs, 17

Leave village, 0

Take loans, 10

Sell valuables, 0

Irrigate fields, 2

Sell land, 1

Sell livestock, 1

Migratory stresses + price incentives

Cropping pattern changed from “12 seeds” to maize and cash crops

Economic pressures Low returns High aspirations

Ecological pressures Dependence on

rainfall Reduced livestock

ownership Reduced pulses

cultivation

Average annual hh income reportedLakhwar Harijan – USD 428Lakhwar Rajput – USD 1621Chhotau Harijan – USD 380Chhotau Brahmin – USD 408

Group discussions and timelines

Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural households in Lakhwar

Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural households in Chhotau

Coping with current water levels

Grow pulses for self consumption and enhancement of soil nitrogen Make and sell organic manure like Dhanpau women’s society Grow fruit-bearing trees (e.g. reetha which doesn’t need much water but has commerc ial value for soaps and shampoos) on barren land Resume cultivation of mundhwa which can be used in baby food and wine, and jhangura which is used in pillows Teach agriculture, horticulture, and dairy farming in high school Extension workers should v isit to prov ide expert adv ice e.g. farmers could grow 2-month hybrid maize instead of 3-month maize to cope with the late onset of the monsoon

Cultivation of medicinal / aromatic plants, horticulture on barren patches

Enhancement of water supply

Reforestation of the hills following the example of Mussoorie. Incentives to v illage panchayats in the form of recognition or rewards for reforestation or preventing forest fires. Rainwater harvesting to serve needs in pre-monsoon months Completion of the Lakhwar dam will not bring irrigation to the v illage but will raise the water table, enhance soil mois ture, and rejuvenate forests Consolidation of land is essential for commercial plantations and fruit orchards that are key to the prosperity of Himachal Pradesh

Rainwater harvesting s torage tank (This can be supplemented by constructing irrigation channels, check dams, and percolation ponds)

Alternatives to agriculture

Primary education s tandards need to be drastically improved; the key issue is regular attendance of teachers who are unwilling to live in remote areas. Vocational training Promotion of tourism

“Education and employment” Vocational training – sewing, needlework Matchstick factory Value addition enterprises (like packaging, juicemaking, processing of medicinal plants)

Insights and scope for further work

Insights Mismatch between top-down policy prescription

and ground-level realities and aspirations Key determinants of vulnerability e.g. caste (and

not land holdings) limits adaptation options Coping measures may increase vulnerability –

inadequate to deal with prolonged stress Scope

Pilot testing of participatory approach - Programme of participatory research on adaptation responses evolved by affected communities

Thank you

START, IIASA, Packard FoundationSMTA (Society for Motivational Training and Action)

People of Lakhwar and Chhotau