Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttaranchal state, India
Ulka Kelkar, TERI
International workshop on climate change
and sustainable development
7-8 April 2006, New Delhi
Water and agriculture Greatest vulnerability in
unsustainably managed ecosystems that are currently water stressed (IPCC)
General reduction in quantity of available runoff in all river basins, except Narmada and Tapi (Natcom); Ganges and Krishna basins show major declining trends (Indo-UK)
Increased summer snowmelt and decline in snow storage in dry season
MDG targetHalve by 2015 the proportion of people who suffer from hungerHalve proportion of people without safe drinking water by 2015
X Plan goals4% pa growth of agricultural GDP [3.2% in 1980-96, 2.6% in 1996-02, 1.8% in 2002-04]
Projected impact of climate change on rainfall in Lakhwar sub-basin
Frequency analysis of daily rainfall intensities over two time periods
0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 17
24
49
138
106
127
40
2 3 2 03 3
7 7 5
1619
14
28
35
62
84
77 79
50
15 3 1 3 4
1
1014
12
2318
24
43
58
76
62
96
34
0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 310
4
17
40
108 109
154
47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
> 200 150-200
140-150
130-140
120-130
110-120
100-110
90-100
80-90 70-80 60-70 50-60 40-50 30-40 20-30 10-20 5-10 1-5 <1 -0.1
Rainfall intensity
Fre
qu
en
cy (
in d
ays
)
July (2041-60) July (1961-98) August (1961-98) August (2041-60)
Heavier intensity rainfall that generate runoff reduce in number
Light intensity rainfall that get lost in satisfying soil moisture needs as well as in meeting ET demands increase in number
Narula and Bhadwal (2003)
What is the capacity of households in the study region to cope with current climatic variability and water stress?
Are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would help them adapt in the long run?
What are the possible scenarios of interventions that can help adapt to water stress due to climate change?
Research questions
Study region
Digitized streamsSubbasinsStreams
Outlets# Linking stream added Outlet
##
##
##
###
#
#
#
# #
# #
#
#
#
##
2
8
6
3
7
1
5
4
9
Koti
Damta
Simla
Solan
Dadahu
Lakhwar
Yamnotri
Tajewala Dehradun
Chakrata
Mussorrie
Yashwant Nagar
UTTARKASHI
SIRMAUR DEHRADUN
SOLAN
TEHRI GRAHWAL
YAMUNA NAGAR
SHIMLA
0 20 40 Kilometers
Upper Yamuna sub-basin
Lakhwar watershed
A journey to Lakhwar
Agriculture in Uttaranchal hills
Fragmented terraces - “Equitable, if impoverished, land distribution”
Only 14% irrigated area in hill districts; 46% in foothills and plains
Tradition of water harvesting – neglect and disrepair
Springs are drying up - “too little – too much”
Migration – lack of labour
Identification of water stressed
areas
Water balance modelling
SWAT – surface runoff, soil moisture development and lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge
MODFLOW – groundwater movement
Areas 1 and 2 are most water stressed
Lakhwar
Chhotau
Preliminary observations from participatory case
studies
Lakhwar Chhotau
Joshi, 19.6182
Harijan, 5.331Hindu, 0.951
Caste stratification and land holdings
Harijan, 8.774
Rajput, 68.692
Brahman, 0.000
Vaishya, 0.800
(a) Lakhwar village Average landholding size 2.5 ha
(b) Chhotau villageAverage landholding size 0.8 ha
Community perceptions about climate and water stress
Earlier one could not see the stars throughout shravana Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but the
rains have been coming late every year As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the
livestock from the hilly slopes, to save them from being drowned. Now the streams are all dry.
But for many years there has been no snowfall in December. There is late snow in January-February which melts away and does not feed into the streams.
35-40 years it used to snow for stretches of 2-4 days when livestock were kept in the house and men would stay indoors and play cards. The snow was like manure – knee deep snow that covered the ground and retained soil moisture underneath.
% of respondents Lakhwar Chhotau Rainfall has declined over the last 10-15 years 90 % 87.5 % Onset of rainfall has become late 65 % 25 % Onset of rainfall has become erratic 32 % 69 %
Stresses and coping measures
Plant less water-
intensive crops, 10
Find other jobs, 17
Leave village, 0
Take loans, 10
Sell valuables, 0
Irrigate fields, 2
Sell land, 1
Sell livestock, 1
Migratory stresses + price incentives
Cropping pattern changed from “12 seeds” to maize and cash crops
Economic pressures Low returns High aspirations
Ecological pressures Dependence on
rainfall Reduced livestock
ownership Reduced pulses
cultivation
Average annual hh income reportedLakhwar Harijan – USD 428Lakhwar Rajput – USD 1621Chhotau Harijan – USD 380Chhotau Brahmin – USD 408
Group discussions and timelines
Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural households in Lakhwar
Adaptation interventions identified by agricultural households in Chhotau
Coping with current water levels
Grow pulses for self consumption and enhancement of soil nitrogen Make and sell organic manure like Dhanpau women’s society Grow fruit-bearing trees (e.g. reetha which doesn’t need much water but has commerc ial value for soaps and shampoos) on barren land Resume cultivation of mundhwa which can be used in baby food and wine, and jhangura which is used in pillows Teach agriculture, horticulture, and dairy farming in high school Extension workers should v isit to prov ide expert adv ice e.g. farmers could grow 2-month hybrid maize instead of 3-month maize to cope with the late onset of the monsoon
Cultivation of medicinal / aromatic plants, horticulture on barren patches
Enhancement of water supply
Reforestation of the hills following the example of Mussoorie. Incentives to v illage panchayats in the form of recognition or rewards for reforestation or preventing forest fires. Rainwater harvesting to serve needs in pre-monsoon months Completion of the Lakhwar dam will not bring irrigation to the v illage but will raise the water table, enhance soil mois ture, and rejuvenate forests Consolidation of land is essential for commercial plantations and fruit orchards that are key to the prosperity of Himachal Pradesh
Rainwater harvesting s torage tank (This can be supplemented by constructing irrigation channels, check dams, and percolation ponds)
Alternatives to agriculture
Primary education s tandards need to be drastically improved; the key issue is regular attendance of teachers who are unwilling to live in remote areas. Vocational training Promotion of tourism
“Education and employment” Vocational training – sewing, needlework Matchstick factory Value addition enterprises (like packaging, juicemaking, processing of medicinal plants)
Insights and scope for further work
Insights Mismatch between top-down policy prescription
and ground-level realities and aspirations Key determinants of vulnerability e.g. caste (and
not land holdings) limits adaptation options Coping measures may increase vulnerability –
inadequate to deal with prolonged stress Scope
Pilot testing of participatory approach - Programme of participatory research on adaptation responses evolved by affected communities
Thank you
START, IIASA, Packard FoundationSMTA (Society for Motivational Training and Action)
People of Lakhwar and Chhotau