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Wind Energy in Poland – Potential, Prospects and Pitfalls

A presentation for the joint seminar by demosEuropa and the Danish Embassy in Warsaw by Kenneth Kolvits, Head of Vestas Poland

19 November 2008

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Agenda

1. Wind Potential in Poland

2. Installations, Share of Wind in Electricity Mix and Comparisons

3. What Hampers Poland in Exploiting its Potential?

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Wind Atlas Poland

Source: GreenMax, 2008

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Wind Potential/Prospects in Poland

• EER: 5-6 GW by 2020 (EER Country Analysis)

• PWEA: 13,5 GW by 2020 (PWEA Assessment of Wind Energy Development Opportunities)

• BTM: 3,4 GW by 2012 (World Market Update 2007)

”Due to excellent wind conditions (…), Poland is one of the most promising wind energy markets in Europe. The country possesses plenty of potentially profitable locations and great development possibilities”

(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 2004)

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Installed Wind Power Capacity in the EU (total end 2007 in MW)

Germany 22,247 MW

Spain 15,145 MW

Denmark 3,125 MW

Italy 2,726 MW

France 2,454 MW

UK 2,389 MW

Portugal 2,150 MW

Netherlands 1,746 MW

Austria 982 MW

Greece 871 MW

Ireland 805 MW

Sweden 788 MW

Norway 333 MW

Belgium 287 MW

Poland 276 MW

Source: GWEC, 2008

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Wind penetration per capita in 2007: Poland one of the lowest figures in the EU

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Share of Wind in Electricity Generation

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Despite Great Resources and International Requirements, Poland is Lagging Behind

• Indicative RES-E target: 7,5 % of electricity shall be met by renewable energy sources by 2010 (Directive 2001/77EC)

• Proposed mandatory RES-target of Draft European Directive of January 2008: 15 % of gross final energy consumption shall come from renewable energy

”Progress towards the RES-E target in Poland is low.”

(European Commission, DG Energy and Transport 2008)

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What Hampers Poland? 2 Main Barriers for Polish Wind Energy Development

1. Grid Infrastructure and Connection

A) Insufficient grid infrastructure in Northern Poland, where best resource is

According to PSE: 1,120 km of new HV lines and 5 new substations needed by 2020

B) Obtaining grid connection

- SOs have 3- to 5-year infrastructure development plans, but investment priorities often change (i.e. Need to repair existing line before building new one)

- Lack of coordination between different DSOs and TSO

- Connection conditions (CCs) are sometimes hard to meet, i.e. very high transmission fees

- In theory, CCs lapse after 2 years; in practice, not the case → capacity reserved on grid for projects that might not get built (many not viable projects hold CCs) blocking other projects: Thus, new projects stuck in connection queue

Source: EER, 2008; Green Max, 2008 and PSE, 2008

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What Hampers Poland? 2 Main Barriers for the Wind Energy Development

2. Complex process of development procedures

Time consuming and relative complex set of procedures for the projects to obtain zoning plan

Time consuming and complex procedure for environmental analysis in order to obtain the approval for wind energy

Few and/or insufficient resources and knowledge to ease the process

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To sum up:

• Poland has a huge resource and its overall regulatory framework makes it an attractive market

• However, barriers hamper wind energy development in Poland and should be removed as soon as possible

• When barriers removed, Poland expected to be able to exploit full potential and comply with international obligations

Vestas believes in the Polish market and remains strongly committed

vestas.com

Thank you for your attentionKenneth F. Kolvits, Head of Vestas Poland

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