trimegeh 20151119.pdf

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Expect market to strengthen today as EIDO increased by +1%. PGAS share price increased +11% yesterday as market took opportunity on its lag vs JCI in the past 1 month knowing that 4Q15 results will be a surprise in our view. We went to HOKI’s pubex yesterday, and come up with summaries; valuation range of 13-16x P/E FY16F (vs AISA 14x), IPO fund will be used to pay its payables, while inventory is expected to increase. Negative development on

ISAT from news about additional license cost to be paid to majority share-holder (Ooredo) if ISAT achieved positive net profit.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Nov 19, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 3 point to 4498 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by basic infrastructure (+1.5% basic industry (+1.2%) and trade (-0.9%). Total transaction value was Rp4.4tr. JCI recorded RP3.4bn net sell by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to strenghtening trend and trade in 4435-4505 range

Technical Market View

Fed minutes released on Wednesday continued to flag December as a likely time for interest rates to rise after seven years near zero, with two express-ing confidence they will be able to pull off a rate hike smoothly despite fears of an abrupt market reaction. Investors reacted by increasing the odds for a rate increase next month to 72%, from 64%.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 4,497.9

Global Indices

Dual Listing (NYSE)

Stock Price Rating Reason

SMGR 11500 Buy

After broke resisten at level 11200, SMGR formed a white candle pattern on the peak of its downtrend channel formation. SMGR with trading range at 11200-12050

UNTR 17050 Buy UNTR a potential upside today with trading range 16700-17550

PWON 433 Buy PWON formed a white candle yesterday, PWON have a potential upwrd movement at trading range 415-445

PGAS 2910 Buy We believe PGAS have a continues strenghtening at range level 2850-3100

RALS 725 Buy RALS long term bullish, white long candle with increased volume. RALS today will trade in range 705-745

SMRA 1415 Spec Buy MACD indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for SMRA. SMRA today trad-ing range is around 1380-1510

Change -0.07%

Transaction Volume (m) 3,387

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 4,443

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,748

Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.9

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,737.2 247.7 1.4

Nasdaq 5,075.2 89.2 1.8

Nikkei 19,649.2 19 0.1

ST Times 2,886.1 -30.7 -1.1

FTSE 6,279.0 10.2 0.2

Hang Seng 22,188.3 -76 -0.3

Chg %

USD IDR 13,819 73 0.5

10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.61 -0.0 -0.3

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 0.01 0.2

Spread (%) 6.34 -0.03 -0.5

EIDO 20.9 0.2 1.0

Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,901) -0 0.0

JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15

(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

IPO: PT Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI)

Buyung Poetra Sembada

• Established in 2003, PT Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI) operates as a branded rice production & distribution

company, specifically the "Topikoki" brand (83% of revenue), located in Cipinang Central Rice Market, Jakar-

ta. Other brands are Rumah Limas, Belida, and BPS. HOKI als produces and distributes private label rice

products in Indonesia with several partners; Indomaret, Hypermart, Giant, Hero, Lotte Mart, etc. In 1H15,

the top 5 customers are Indomaret, HERO, MPPA, Trans Retail, and Lotte Mart.

• The current business model of HOKI is buying low quality rice and then giving value-added process to get

high quality rice. The production process consist of cleaning, paddy separating, whitening, polishing, de-

stoning, and packaging. According to AC Nielsen survey, HOKI has 35% modern trade rice sales market

share.

• HOKI plans to expand the company's production process from the use of paddy as raw materials, to reduce

dependency on rice as raw materials. HOKI will buy premium quality paddy, instead of rice, and process it to

become the superior branded rice quality. Based on management's past experience in Palembang, the up-

stream plan will bring 10% gross profit margin expansion.

• The funds obtained from IPO would be used to increase working capital. Post IPO, HOKI will be able to pay

off its 205 suppliers much more quickly, which should ensure greater rice supplies. This should help to guar-

antee supplies during the current El Nino period. Additionally, HOKI plans to build silos for paddy storage and

we are looking at higher inventory turnover to a maximum average of 85 days.

• HOKI's turnover days 1H15, : 68 receivable days, 131 payable days, and 81 inventory days. The company

reached Rp45.9bn Net profit 1H15 (314% increase YoY) with operating income only Rp23.9bn and Rp28bn

from gain on short term investment. Core profit 1H15 Rp16.7bn (50% increase YoY). HOKI expects net in-

come Rp55bn 2015F, Rp76bn 2016F, and Rp100bn 2017F.

• By using market cap post IPO range of Rp991-1,180bn, this translates to 13-16x range of 2016F P/E (vs

AISA trades at 14x 2016F P/E).

• From 30.08% shares offered, 2% out of it (max 14.2 mn shares) will be allocated for ESA (employee stock

allocation) program.

Market cap post IPO Rp991.2-1,180bn

Deal Size Rp298.2-355bn

Offering Price Range Rp420-500/share

Shares Offered Max 710mn shares (30.08%)

Book Bulding Period 18-26 November 2015

Listing Date 16 December 2015


News of the Day

Banks: lowered minimum RRR does not mean lower

lending rates

Bankers view the lower minimum RRR positively but they

are still maintaining lending rates. This is due to un-

changed benchmark interest rate at 7.5%. Current con-

cern remains on weak loan demand, not on liquidity.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

Media: ad spending picks up in 3Q15 on govern-

ment programs

According to Nielsen Indonesia, ad spending growth on a

YoY basis in 2Q15 was 6% (vs. 12% in 2Q14 due to

political campaign). In 3Q15, the government appeared

to be the biggest ad spender during July-September

period. The government has spent Rp4.58tn on ads until

9M15 (-15% decrease from last year) despite the amount

was much higher than consumer goods ad spending. Hair

care segment, which is the biggest spender among con-

sumer goods segments, spent only Rp3.35tn. Source:

The Jakarta Post

Telco: Govt to announce in 1Q16 the tender winner

for 2,100Mhz spectrum (block 11 & 12 @5Mhz)

These two 3G blocks were previously owned by Axis,

which were submitted back to Govt after Axis acquisition

by EXCL. Telkomsel (TLKM) and EXCL target to acquired

2 blocks, while ISAT and Tri intends to own 1 block.

Telkomsel aims to add spectrum as its spectrum already

more densed than other operators due to high number of

subscribers on the same size of bandwidth. Refarming

(rearrangement) plan for 2,100Mhz will still depend on

which telco operator win the tender. If the winner is

owner of block 10 (EXCL), then there is no need for

refarming. Spectrum’s beauty contest requirement is still

being discussed – whether to include non-existing opera-

tors (operators which does not own other existing blocks

in 2,100Mhz, i.e. FREN, Bolt (KBLV), and Sampoerna

Telekomunikasi Indonesia) or not. Source: Bisnis Indone-

sia, Kontan

Politics : Rizal Ramli said reshuffle would be hap-

pen this year

Contrast with Vice President Jusuf Kalla’s statement last

week, Maritime Affairs Minister Rizal Ramli said that

cabinet reshuffle part II would likely happen by end of

this year. Last week, Jusuf Kalla said cabinet reshuflle

would not be happen until end of this year because gov-

ernment focus on regional elections (Pilkada) which will

be held simultaneously across the country in December

and several important occasions abroad which should be

attended by Jokowi and JK. Source: Tempo

([email protected])

KPPU will focus on branded generics and licensed

drugs

This is related to the high price of branded generics and

licensed drugs in market as Government does not regulate

the prices. In FY14, pharmaceuticals in Indonesia recorded

Rp 52trn, expected to grow by 11.8% YoY in 2015F.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

Indian firm to take RI to arbitration court

Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys Ltd (IMFA) has taken the

Indonesian government to the international arbitration

court for being unable to develop its mining areas due to

overlapping mining permits, a senior government figure has

said. IMFA reportedly demanded Rp7.7tn (US$600mn) for

being unable to operate in the areas, and has submitted its

appeal to Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. The

dispute emerge after IMFA purchased a mining operation

permit in Kalimantan, valued at US$8.7mn in 2010, only to

find out that several other permits have been issued by

other local administrators, which claimed that parts of the

mining area were located within their territories. Source:

The Jakarta Post

Kadin to arm up with China to develop ports in east-

ern areas

Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) is

cooperating with the Development Committee of China on

the construction of international standard seaports in Indo-

nesia’s eastern regions. According to Yogi Prayanto, Kadin

Deputy Chairman for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, MoUs

between Kadin and China’s Development Committee, be-

tween Indonesia’s Sorong Port and China’s North Bay Shat-

in Port has been signed. Yogi also mentioned that Kadin

was convinced that the funds from the state budget would

not be adequate to build infrastructure, so the private

sector should take the initiative in the development of ports

and shipyards. Source: The Jakarta Post

TRIO: in talks with creditors regarding loan restruc-

turing

The company is still in discussion with its lender to restruc-

ture its Rp6.4tn total bank loans, of which Rp2.1tn and

Rp1.9tn will be matured this year and next year respective-

ly. Further details are undisclosed yet except the standstill

and forbearances scheme proposal as well as business plan

disclosure to the creditors. TRIO also still has two bonds

payable amounting Rp1.15tn and Rp1tn maturing in 2016

and 2017 respectively. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])


News of the Day

OECD cuts subsidy for steam power plants

Organization Economic Cooperation & Development

(OECD) decided to cut 85% financing for future coal

projects, as its emission causes Earth temperature to

increase. South Korea and Japan will be among the

countries to limit coal projects investment in the future.

This is negative for coal as demand might be cut further.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

Negative for coal sector as lower demand will also result

in further price cut. Newcastle coal price is at US$53.75/

ton per yesterday closing, falls 14% YTD. This will in turn

be negative also for mining contractors (i.e. UNTR and

DOID) as it might result in volume and tariff cut. We

have accounted 5% decline in coal production tariff in

2015 and 2016 (flat afterwards), so we remain confident

DOID will be able to reach net revenue of US$593mn and

US$182mn EBITDA in 2016. DOID is currently trading at

2 . 9 / 2 . 4 x 2 0 1 6 - 1 7 E E V / E B I T D A

([email protected])

DOID: 10M15 volumes in-line with our estimates

DOID recorded a 3.1mt coal production and 24.0mbcm

overburden volume, making up 10M15 numbers to

27.9mt and 225.5mbcm respectively. Average strip ratio

in October 2015 was at 7.7x.

Comment:

This is in-line with our full-year estimates (85% and 84%

of our coal production and overburden volume estimates,

accordingly). ([email protected])

SMCB: Sold its Holcim Malaysia to Lafarge

At RMB330mn, or equivalent to Rp1.03tn. SMCB will sell

all its holding on Holcim Malaysia (HMSB), which will be

paid in USD. The transaction is effective as of 16 Novem-

ber 2015. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

Given the selling of HMSB, this would provide SMCB with

additional funding to finance the acquisition of Semen

Andalas (Lafarge in Indonesia).

ACST: Sold 434m2 in Menteng on affiliated transac-

tion

To PT Cross Plus Indonesia and PT Loka Cipta Kreasi,

which own 12.27% and 5.83% of ACST, respectively. The

transaction is valued at Rp4.65bn, under rights to use

(HGB) certificate with total surface area of 434m2.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia

SMRA: to benefit from proposed high speed train

And to be launched on the 21st of november 2015. Will

launch a total of 600 units for phase 1, and takes up 8Ha

(2.6% of total land). Initial marketing sales target set at

Rp500bn, with Rp300bn capex. Source: Kontan

([email protected])

ISAT: Ooredo to do affiliated transaction with ISAT

ISAT will will get exclusive right to use global assets owned

by Ooredo, e.g. sponsorhip assets, media marketing,

intellectual copyrights, and creative datas. According to

company’s disclosure, ISAT will pay license cost annually

based on following provisions:

1) the license cost will be paid annually calculated from

ISAT’s revenue in audited financial statement;

2) licensecost will only be paid if the company achieved

positive net profit (audited and annouced financial state-

ment) after accounting the license payment;

3) lichse cost will be paid based on certain percentage from

the company’s operational revenue which will not exceed

1.3% of the company’s operational revenue (cellular, fixed

line, fixed data (MIDI), and fiber; not include revenue from

Lintasarta and tower business). Source: Company, Inves-

tor Daily

Comment:

We are checking with the company on details but at least

the initial reaction would be negative. It is not clear how

much indosat can benefit from intl assets since we expect

growth to come from domestic. Assuming no benefit, the

impact to our 2016 profit is -35% lower (assuming 2016E

EBITDA margin down by 1.3% to 41.2%).


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

-78 -82

-742

-297

-19

-497

-660

-145

-1,051

-479

-6

-550

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD

Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD troy oz.)(Rp)ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/10/2015 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Oct 96.5 96.1 96.1

US Import Price Index MoM (%) Oct -0.3 -0.1 -0.1

US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Sep 0.1 0.5 0.1

11/11/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications (%) 6-Nov -- -1.3 -0.8

11/12/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 7-Nov 270 276 276

US Continuing Claims ('000') 31-Oct 2165 2174 2163

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Nov -- 41.6 41.1

EC Industrial Production SA MoM Sep -0.1 -0.3 -0.5

EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Sep 1.3 1.7 0.9

11/13/2015 US Monthly Budget Statement (USDbn) Oct -132 -136.5 -121.7

US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Oct 0.3 0.1 0.1

US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%) Oct 0.4 0.2 -0.3

US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%) Oct 0.4 0.3 0.0

US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -0.4 -0.5

US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.1 -0.3

US PPI Final Demand YoY (%) Oct -1.2 -1.6 -1.1

US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%) Oct 0.5 0.1 0.8

US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov P 91.5 93.1 90

EC Trade Balance SA (USDbn) Sep 19.3 20.1 19.8

EC Trade Balance NSA (USDbn) Sep 16 20.5 11.2

EC GDP SA QoQ (%) 3Q A 0.4 0.3 0.4

EC GDP SA YoY (%) 3Q A 1.7 1.6 1.5

11/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Nov -6.3 -10.74 -11.4

ID Trade Balance (USDmn) Oct 725 1019 1017

11/17/2015 ID Exports YoY (%) Oct -16.78 -20.98 -18.0

EC CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.1 0.1 0.2

EC CPI YoY (%) Oct F 0 0.1 0.0

EC CPI Core YoY (%) Oct F 1 1.1 1.0

11/17/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 -0.2

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 0.2

US CPI YoY (%) Oct 0.1 0.2 0.0

US Industrial Production MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.2 -0.2

US Capacity Utilization Oct 77.5 77.5 77.5

ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 17-Nov 7.5 7.5 7.5

ID Bank Indonesia Lending Facility Rate 17-Nov 8 8 8.0

11/18/2016 US Net Long-term TIC Flows (USDbn) Sep -- 33.6 20.4

US Total Net TIC Flows (%) Sep -- -175.1 -9.2

US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Nov -- 6.2 -1.3

US Housing Starts ('000') Oct 1160 1060 1,206

US Building Permits ('000') Oct 1147 1150 1103

11/19/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 14-Nov 270 -- 276

US Continuing Claims ('000') 7-Nov 2170 -- 2174

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Nov -- -- 41.6

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov -0.8 -- -4.5

US Leading Index Oct 0.5 -- -0.2

11/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct -- -- -0.37

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P 54 -- 54.1

US Existing Home Sales (USDmn) Oct 5.4 -- 5.55

11/24/2015 US Advance Goods Trade Balance (USDbn) Oct -61.9 -- -58.6

US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 2 -- 1.5

US Personal Consumption 3Q S -- -- 3.2

US GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.2 -- 1.2

11/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Nov -- -- --


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) -13.95% 3,387

YTD (USD) 5.67% 4,443

Moving Avg 20day 4,534 4,748

Moving Avg 50day 4,446 12.9

Moving Avg 200day 4,936 2.8%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 5,318.4 18.2 0.3 -14.2

JII 593.8 4.5 0.8 -14.1

LQ45 773.4 2.4 0.3 -13.9

JAKFIN Index 668.6 -1.7 -0.2 -8.6

JAKINFR Index 929.9 14.1 1.5 -19.9

JAKMINE Index 881.7 0.7 0.1 -35.6

JAKCONS Index 2,042.1 -13.1 -0.6 -6.2

JAKTRAD Index 811.8 -7.3 -0.9 -7.6

JAKMIND Index 1,102.3 5.1 0.5 -15.7

JAKBIND Index 402.8 4.9 1.2 -25.9

JAKPROP Index 473.1 -3.3 -0.7 -9.9

JAKAGRI Index 1,638.9 -11.6 -0.7 -30.3

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 183.6 -0.1 -0.06 -20.2

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 44.1 0.6 1.31 -23.0

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 40.8 0.1 0.20 -23.5

Natural Gas 2.3 -0.0 -1.01 -19.1

COAL (AUS Daily) 53.8 0.3 0.56 -13.3

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,468.5 -2.0 -0.14 -19.9

Nickel (USD/tonne) 8,980 -125 -1.37 -40.7

Tin (USD/tonne) 14,600 -100 -0.68 -24.7

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,068.7 0.1 0.01 -9.7

Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.1 -0.1 -0.64 -9.7

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,168 36.0 1.69 -5.4

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,208 -0.2 -0.02 -26.4

Corn (USD/bu.) 362 -0.3 -0.07 -8.9

Wheat (USD/bu.) 483 -4.3 -0.87 -18.1

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 858 -6.3 -0.72 -15.8

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.938 -0.001 -0.2 17.3

USDGBP UK 0.656 -0.001 -0.2 9.4

USDCHF Switzerland 1.020 0.005 0.5 2.0

USDCAD Canada 1.330 -0.002 -0.1 10.9

USDAUD Australia 1.406 0.000 0.0 17.2

USDNZD New Zealand 1.545 -0.001 -0.0 18.8

USDJPY Japan 123.64 0.190 0.2 3.2

USDCNY China 6.38 0.01 0.1 3.0

USDHKD Hongkong 7.750 -0.000 -0.0 -0.6

USDSGD Singapore 1.421 -0.003 -0.2 9.3

Rupiah Indonesia 13,819 73.0 0.5 11.6

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,691.6 15.45 0.92 -1.06

SPX S&P 500 2,083.6 33.14 1.62 1.20

US

17,737.2 247.7 1.42 -0.48

Nasdaq US 5,075.2 89.19 1.79 7.16

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 379.3 -0.55 -0.14 10.75

FTSE London 6,279.0 10.21 0.16 -4.37

DAX Jerman 10,960.0 -11.1 -0.10 11.77

CAC France 4,906.7 -30.59 -0.62 14.84

SMI Swiss 8,991.0 38.38 0.43 0.08

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 47,435.6 188 0.40 -5.14

MICEX Russia 1,810.5 23.25 1.30 29.63

SENSEX India 25,482.5 -382.0 -1.48 -7.33

NIFTY India 7,731.8 -105.8 -1.35 -6.65

SHCOMP China 3,568.5 -36.33 -1.01 10.32

SZCOMP China 2,189.9 -41.30 -1.85 54.74

Nikkei Japan 19,649.2 18.5 0.09 12.60

TPX Japan 1,586.5 0.42 0.03 12.72

HSI Hong kong 22,188.3 -76 -0.34 -6.00

KOSPI S.Korea 1,962.9 -0.70 -0.04 2.47

TAIEX Taiwan 8,340.5 -79.0 -0.94 -10.39

FSSTI Singapore 2,886.1 -30.70 -1.05 -14.24

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,376.8 -13.35 -0.96 -8.07

PCOMP Philipines 6,825.4 0.0 0.00 -5.60

KLCI Malaysia 1,656.5 -5.03 -0.30 -5.95

VNINDEX Vietnam 603.3 -1.71 -0.28 10.58

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

-0.4

-2.3

-2.7

-2.8

-3.2

-4.1

-4.2

-5.3

-9.8

-10.0

BBCA

HMSP

LPPF

UNTR

GGRM

AKRA

CTRA

EXCL

SMMA

MAYA11.5

3.6

3.0

2.4

1.6

1.2

1.2

0.5

0.4

0.4

PGAS

SMGR

BDMN

INDF

INTP

TLKM

ICBP

BBRI

UNVR

ASII

281

239

190

150

134

107

106

103

96

91

- 100 200 300

BBRI

TLKM

PGAS

SMGR

ASII

BMRI

SSMS

GGRM

BBNI

BBCA

99

93

92

89

87

85

84

84

67

67

0 50 100 150

BIPI

PPRO

ANTM

ASRI

MYRX

BWPT

NIRO

TLKM

PGAS

TARA

9,089

5,472

5,330

4,828

4,808

4,705

4,691

4,551

4,453

4,216

PGAS

GSMF

ASII

SSMS

BWPT

UNTR

SMGR

TLKM

BBRI

GGRM

JCI 4,497.9 (3.0) -0.1%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Technical Call 12-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,589 strengthened

4,612 0.48% Correct

PTPP 3,805 Buy

3,830 0.66% Correct

GGRM 43,425 Buy

43,700 0.63% Correct

SMRA 1,420 Buy

1,440 1.41% Correct

BBRI 10,550 Buy

10,675 1.18% Correct

BBTN 1,095 Buy

1,105 0.91% Correct

SRIL 392 Trd. Buy

397 1.28% Correct



4,612 0.48% Correct

NIRO 128 Buy

130 1.56% Correct

DMAS 230 Buy

231 0.43% Correct

SMCB 1,100 Buy

1,105 0.45% Correct

ITMG 10,500 Buy

10,850 3.33% Correct

SRIL 392 Buy

397 1.28% Correct

PGAS 3,000 Sell

2,995 -0.17% Correct



4,491 0.10% Correct

TLKM 2,740 Buy

2,710 -1.09% Incorrect

TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,450 0.78% Correct

PWON 397 Buy

390 -1.76% Incorrect

ASRI 398 Buy


ASII 6,125 Sell

6,325 3.27% Incorrect

PGAS 2,950 Sell

2,890 -2.03% Correct



4,612 0.48% Correct

TINS 710 Buy

730 2.82% Correct

INCO 2,310 Buy

2,410 4.33% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell


BBRI 10,550 Sell


PWON 416 Buy

420 0.96% Correct

SMGR 10,550 Buy

10,700 1.42% Correct



4,446 2.35% Correct

AALI 20,325 Buy

20,000 -1.60% Incorrect

BMRI 8,200 Buy

8,900 8.54% Correct

PWON 367 Buy

383 4.36% Correct

BBNI 4,400 Buy

4,535 3.07% Correct

ITMG 10,000 Sell


SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy

10,075 0.25% Correct





4,344 3.23% Correct

ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy

10,000 2.83% Correct

PWON 339 Spec Buy

367 8.26% Correct

ANTM 481 Spec Buy

481 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,585 Buy

3,700 3.21% Correct

GGRM 44,450 Buy

46,600 4.84% Correct

SSMS 1,730 Buy

1,795 3.76% Correct


JCI 4,255 Weakening

4,208 -1.11% Correct

PTPP 3,580 Buy

3,585 0.14% Correct

ASII 5,275 Buy


AALI 19,300 Buy

19,100 -1.04% Incorrect

TINS 680 Buy


INCO 2,545 Buy


GGRM 43,300 Buy

44,450 2.66% Correct



4,255 0.73% Correct

TLKM 2,645 Buy


TBIG 6,550 Buy


ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,180 0.43% Correct

UNVR 38,000 Buy

38,800 2.11% Correct

INCO 2,185 Trd. Buy

2,545 16.48% Correct

TINS 640 Trd. Buy

680 6.25% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation


4,224 1.09% Correct

PTPP 3,475 Buy


BBNI 4,070 Buy

4,135 1.60% Correct

BBRI 8,350 Buy

8,650 3.59% Correct

ASII 5,300 Buy


GGRM 42,750 Sell

42,000 -1.75% Correct

UNTR 16,900 Sell



JCI 4,121 Weakening


PTPP 3,410 Buy

3,475 1.91% Correct

ROTI 1,145 Buy


TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,400 0.00% Correct

AKRA 5,875 Sell


BBTN 1,000 Sell

995 -0.50% Correct

LSIP 1,400 Sell





JCI 4,209 Rebound


TLKM 2,655 Buy


PTPP 3,470 Buy


BBNI 4,110 Buy


BBRI 8,550 Buy


ADRO 585 Buy


AKRA 6,000 Sell

5,875 -2.08% Correct


JCI 4,244 Weakening

4,209 -0.82% Correct

ITMG 9,500 Buy


TBIG 6,550 Buy


LSIP 1,320 Buy

1,400 6.06% Correct

AALI 17,925 Buy

17,950 0.14% Correct

INCO 1,870 Buy

2,080 11.23% Correct

TINS 620 Buy

645 4.03% Correct


JCI 4,344 Weakening

4,244 -2.29% Correct

LSIP 1,260 Buy

1,320 4.76% Correct

ASII 5,800 Buy


TBIG 6,800 Buy


ADRO 595 Buy


SRIL 373 Buy

377 1.07% Correct

BWPT 254 Sell

246 -3.15% Correct


JCI 4,376 Rebound


TLKM 2,730 Buy


AALI 18,100 Buy

17,900 -1.10% Incorrect

ASII 5,800 Buy

5,800 0.00% Correct

BBNI 4,330 Buy


DILD 625 Buy


ROTI 1,175 Buy



JCI 4,380 Weakening

4,376 -0.10% Correct

ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,175 0.00% Correct

SCMA 2,780 Buy

2,800 0.72% Correct

GGRM 42,825 Buy

43,025 0.47% Correct

TLKM 2,690 Buy

2,730 1.49% Correct

EXCL 2,395 Sell

2,415 0.84% Correct

WTON 895 Sell

885 -1.12% Correct





4,380 0.04% Correct

BBNI 4,350 Buy


SCMA 2,700 Buy

2,780 2.96% Correct

UNVR 39,100 Buy

39,100 0.00% Correct

TINS 640 Buy


WIKA 2,725 Sell

2,710 -0.55% Correct

ROTI 1,180 Sell

1,175 -0.42% Correct


JCI 4,333 Rebound

4,378 1.06% Correct

UNTR 18,850 Buy

18,675 -0.93% Incorrect

TLKM 2,720 Buy

2,680 -1.47% Correct

BBNI 4,315 Buy


PWON 348 Buy

351 0.86% Incorrect

SMGR 9,700 Buy

9,700 0.00% Correct

ASII 5,900 Buy

5,925 0.42% Correct


JCI 4,347 Weakening

4,333 -0.34% Correct

AKRA 5,575 Buy

5,575 0.00% Correct

UNTR 18,200 Buy

18,850 3.57% Correct

BBNI 4,360 Buy


BMRI 8,700 Buy


WIKA 2,675 Sell

2,660 -0.56% Correct

MPPA 2,290 Sell

2,245 -1.97% Correct


JCI 4,390 Weakening

4,347 -0.98% Correct

BBNI 4,450 Buy

4,360 -2.02% Correct

BBCA 12,100 Buy

11,950 -1.24% Correct

AKRA 5,750 Buy


SMRA 1,330 Buy


INTP 19,975 Sell

19,300 -3.38% Correct

PGAS 2,665 Sell

2,620 -1.69% Correct


JCI 4,360 Rebond

4,390 0.69% Correct

LSIP 1,170 Buy

1,210 3.42% Correct

BWPT 275 Buy

275 0.00% Correct

KLBF 1,550 Buy


AALI 18,000 Sell


ADRO 565 Spec. Buy

570 0.88% Correct

PGAS 2,685 Sell

2,665 -0.74% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Wisnu Budhiargo

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Patricia Gabriela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Kevie Aditya

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Jennifer Yapply

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk located outside of the United States (a “non-US

Group Company”). This report is distributed in the U.S. by Enclave Capital LLC (“Enclave Capital”), a U.S. registered broker dealer, on behalf of

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk only to major U.S. institutional investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934

(the “Exchange Act”)) pursuant to the exemption in Rule 15a-6 and any transaction effected by a U.S. customer in the securities described in

this report must be effected through Enclave Capital. Neither the report nor any analyst who prepared or approved the report is subject to U.S.

legal requirements or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) or other regulatory requirements pertaining to research

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