The vulnerability to climate change of Convergence Regionsreteambientale.minambiente.it/sites/default/files/20121120_ok_4d... · ITD3 Veneto 38 49 ITD1 Provincia Autonoma Bolzano

Joint meeting of the Italian Environmental Network and the European Network ENEA-MA Rome 18-19 October 2012

The vulnerability to climate change of

Convergence Regions

Pierfrancesco FIGHERA

Linea 3 - Azioni orizzontali per l’integrazione ambientale

POAT “Ambiente” PON GAT 2007-2013

[email protected]

Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio e del Mare Direzione Generale per lo Sviluppo Sostenibile, il Clima e l’Energia

Impacts of climate change

2

Climate change is a global challenge that generates different impacts

at local level, depending on environmental criticalities and on

economic and social characteristics.

Economic and social disparities among regional areas are increasing

and the cohesion policies effectiveness could be reduced as a result of

climate change effects.

Climate change has become a central issue in the European agenda,

obliging policymakers to develop strategies and criteria to respond with

adequate policy instruments at EU's disposals.

Distribution of climate change challenge

3

Impacts of climate change on European regions should be analyzed

and evaluated with different approaches, according to the territories’

physical and natural vulnerability, their level of economic development,

their natural and human adaptive capability and the disaster

surveillance mechanisms.

In the European Mediterranean Regions, such as Southern Italy, Spain,

Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta and Hungary, current delays of

development indicators and likely inequalities about access to the

public environmental services and ecosystems’ resources, will increase

their exposure to climate change challenges, and also the

environmental and social disparities with other more developed regions.

Our Proposal to Assess Climate Vulnerability

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This report proposes to apply a methodology to measure the territorial

vulnerability to climate challenge at municipal scale, through a

synthetic index of social, economic and environmental phenomena.

This report illustrates the spatial distribution of climate change effects in

Convergence Objective territories and aims to provide information and

considerations relevant to:

a) To verify the compliance of regional development programs with the

EU‘s strategic priorities in regard of climate and energy;

b) To define the strategies to mitigate and adapt climate changes to the

regional and local contexts;

c) To establish the climatic conditionality of programs aimed to develop

climate and energy criteria, to select operations in the implementation

phase, and to identify a set of indicators to monitor the impact of those

programs on the climate.

Climate change and Energy vulnerability (Regions 2020, CE 2008) NUTS Regione Climate Change vulnerability Index Energy vulnerbility Index

ITG1 Sicilia 56 48

ITG2 Sardegna 56 48

ITF4 Puglia 51 48

ITF6 Calabria 49 47

ITF5 Basilicata 49 52

ITF3 Campania 47 47

ITD5 Emilia-Romagna 45 50

ITE3 Marche 42 52

ITC2 Valle d’Aosta 42 55

ITF1 Abruzzo 42 55

ITF2 Molise 42 52

ITE1 Toscana 41 52

ITE4 Lazio 41 48

ITE2 Umbria 39 52

ITC3 Liguria 38 48

ITD3 Veneto 38 49

ITD1 Provincia Autonoma Bolzano 34 46

ITC4 Lombardia 34 50

ITD4 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 33 49

ITC1 Piemonte 32 50

ITD2 Provincia Autonoma Trento 29 48

Media nazionale 42 50

Media UE 35,5 39,5

The aim of the experimental analysis

To assess the level of vulnerability to climate change at the municipal scale

for Convergence Regions by aggregating five indicators related to the

following factors:

1. Dependence of the local economy on agriculture and fishing;

2. Dependence of the local economy on tourism;

3. Demographic changes affected by flooding;

4. Populations living in coastal areas at risk of sea level rise;

5. Territories at risk of desertification.

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Fenomeno Indicatore Intervallo di classificazione

per elaborazione carta

Fascia di

classificazione

Punteggio per

elaborazione

IVCC

1

Dependence of the local

economy on agriculture

and fishing

Additional Value In Agriculture, Fishing and Foresting (% municipal total)

(dati ISTAT 2005)

< 0,75 settima 14,29

0,75 - 1,33 sesta 28,57

1,33 - 1,98 quinta 42,86

1,98 - 2,79 quarta 57,14

2,79 - 3,97 terza 71,43

3,97 - 6,14 seconda 85,71

≥ 6,14 prima 100,00

2 Dependence of the local

economy on tourism;

Employers in HoReCa (% sul totale degli occupati comunale) (nostra elaborazione su dati ISTAT 2001)

< 2,80 quinta 20

2,8 3,69 quarta 40

3,69 - 4,26 terza 60

4,26 - 5,64 seconda 80

≥ 5,64 prima 100

3 Demographic changes

affected by flooding;

Variations of the Population Exposed to Flooding

(% sul totale della popolazione 2001 - 2051)

(nostra elaborazione su dati ISTAT e PAI)

< - 0,5 quinta 20

-0,5 - 0 quarta 40

0 - 0,5 terza 60

0,5 - 1 seconda 80

> 1 prima 100

4

Populations living in

coastal areas at risk of

sea level rise

Population living in Areas Lower than 5 Metres on Sea Level

(% sul totale della popolazione comunale) (nostra elaborazione su dati ISTAT 2001 e modelli digitali del

terreno)

0/nessun dato prima 0

< 0,92 seconda 20

0,92 - 2,36 terza 40

2,36 - 4,65 quarta 60

4,65 - 12,56 quinta 80

≥ 12,56 sesta 100

5 Territories at risk of

desertification

Dry Soil Surface during 86-159 days

(% sul totale della superficie comunale) (nostra elaborazione su dati Portale cartografico nazionale –

MATTM)

0 prima 0

< 5,00 seconda 20

5,00 - 15,00 terza 40

15,00 - 30,01 quarta 60

30,01 - 50,00 quinta 80

≥ 50 sesta 100

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Within each region there can be

remarkable differences of the

indicators making the aggregate index of vulnerability to climate

change. This might result in different evaluations depending on

geographical areas or on the

phenomenon considered.

The evaluations might be useful to

develop strategies and policies

aimed at mitigating the risks of the undergoing phenomena, and

adapting them to the needs and

characteristics of the territories.

Climate change vulnerability index

in the Italian regions of

Convergence Objective

Dependence of the Local Economy on Agriculture and Fishing

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Dependence of the Local Economy on Tourism

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Demographic Changes Affected by Flooding

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Populations living in Coastal Areas at Risk of Sea Level Rise

Territories at Risk of Desertification

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Outputs of the Assessment

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The synthetic index shows a remarkably widespread level of

vulnerability in every region observed.

Half of the Municipalities in the Mezzogiorno areas can be vulnerable to

climate change. That means almost 800 municipalities, 60% of the total

population, 65% of the territory (47.000 kmq), nearly 10.000.000 people

can be affected.

The geographical distribution of the index in Convergence Objective

regions shows a high vulnerability of coastline areas, exposed to many

potential risks associated with the effects of climate change, more.

Moreover, the armor of the main urban settlements and the location of

some large industrial centers, makes coastal areas more sensitive then

the internal areas of the southern Apennines.

Preliminary Assessments: Regions’ vulnerability (1)

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Preliminary Assessments: Regions’ vulnerabilities (2)

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The relevance of the phenomena

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Methodological aspects and assessment

procedures

1. Methodological Aspects

Integration of the Indicators’ Set to define the index of climate

vulnerability

Definition of Indicators’ Set for the energetic vulnerability on an urban

scale

2. Assessment Procedures

Accomplishing the evaluation ex ante

Urban development strategies

Strategies and plans of participatory development

Setting of strategies and adapting plans to climate changes

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PER L’INTEGRAZIONE

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What the AA Network can do is:

1. To Define a Single Methodology of Measures applied to all Regions for

the 2014 – 2020 Planning

2. To Set for All Regions Evaluations of Climate and Energy Vulnerability

at a Municipal Scale

3. To Set Methodological Documents for Regional Strategies and Plans to

Adapt to Climate Changes

4. To Initiate a Technical Cooperation with UVAL, DPS and Regional

Planning to Use the Climate and Energy Assessments in the Decisional

and Implementation Phases of the Programmes

Filiera decisionale della programmazione 2004-2020

Europa 2020, Azioni Faro, Roadmap 2050

Regolamento generale Fondi Strutturali Regolamento FESR-FEASR-FSE

Quadro Strategico Comunitario

Contratto di Partenariato

Programmi Operativi

Criteri di Selezione

Progetti e operazioni

Monitoraggio e reporting

Valutazione ex-ante/VAS

Quadro Finanziario Pluriennale 2014 - 2020

Valutazione

Unione europea

Unione europea +

Stati Membri

Stati Membri Regioni

Beneficiari

Punto di entrata vulnerabilità






Filiera decisionale per la programmazione 2014 – 2020

Authors

Ministero dell’Ambiente delle Tutela del Territorio e del Mare Giovanni BRUNELLI - Dirigente Direzione per lo Sviluppo Sostenibile,il Clima e l’Energia

Elio MANTI

Regione Campania Antonio RISI – Responsabile Autorità Ambientale

Pierfrancesco FIGHERA

Melania Rosaria ROMANO

Ferdinando D’ARGENIO

Regione Puglia Antonello ANTONICELLI – Direttore Area Ambiente

Giuseppe ANGELINI - Responsabile Autorità Ambientale

Erminia SGARAMELLA

Daniela BATTISTA

Alessandra LISI CERVONE

Regione Calabria Francesca CURRÀ – Nucleo di Valutazione

Ernesto NAIMO

Marco CAFERRO

Arturo VELTRI

Regione Siciliana Rossella REYES - Dipartimento Regionale della Programmazione

Angelo FUCARINO

PON GAT

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