The Race to the South Pole: The Power ... - IIBA CincinnatiThe Race to the South Pole: The Power of Agile Development Presented to IIBA Cincinnati by Richard Brenner Principal, Chaco

The Race to the South Pole:The Power of Agile Development

Presented to IIBA Cincinnati by Richard BrennerPrincipal, Chaco Canyon Consulting

on July 17, 2018

Copyright © 2018 Richard [email protected] Canyon Consultingwww.ChacoCanyon.com 1

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1Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner


presented to

byRick Brenner

Chaco Canyon Consulting

Building State-of-the-Art TeamworkIn Problem-Solving Organizations

[email protected] | @RickBrenner | @TechDebtPolicyChacoCanyon.com | TechDebtPolicy.comCopyright © 2018 Richard Brenner

IIBA Cincinnati ChapterMonthly Meeting

July 17, 2018


Imagine…

Petty Officer Edgar Evans, R.N.Photo: Herbert Ponting

Source: British Antarctic Expedition 1910-13

2


A note on format• Underlined items are live links to:

• Other slides• Articles on my Web site• Articles elsewhere on the Web

• To get a copy with working links:

• To get a copy of the handout:

• Both plus an annotated bibliography:

https://c4i.co/38l

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Core message• Two teams tried to reach the South Pole

• Scott’s approach relied on conventional wisdom• Amundsen’s emphasized risk management

• Value of conventional wisdom declines rapidly as you move into the unknown

• The larger and riskier the project:• The more important is risk management• The less important is conventional wisdom• The more important are the advantages of agile

processes

We can understand the difference in outcomesin terms of the advantages of agile approaches


The Agile Manifesto (briefly)1. Satisfy the customer early and often2. Welcome changing requirements3. Deliver frequently4. Collaborate with the customer5. Support, trust, and focus on highly motivated people6. Face-to-face is best7. Measure progress by what’s working8. Work at a pace sustainable by all9. Value technical excellence and good design10. Simplicity is essential11. Self-organizing teams produce the best results12. Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral advancement

Amundsen understood all this, Scott almost none.


Preparation: Understand the problem• An ounce of prevention is worth a

pound of ____• Measure twice, cut ___• Look before you ___• By failing to prepare, you are preparing

to fail. ― Benjamin Franklin• Give me six hours to chop down a tree

and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe. ― Abraham Lincoln

It’s easier to stay out of troublethan to get out of trouble



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Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station

Copyright 2018 Richard Brenner

NSF/USAP photo, January 2006

Amundsen-Scott South Pole Stationnear completion

webcam


Geography

• High plateau: 9300 ft (2800 m)• Lhasa, Tibet: 11,995 ft (3656 m)• Quito, Ecuador: 9,350 ft (2849 m)

• Pressure elevation: 10-13000 ft (3-4 km)• Desert: rarely snows: 7.9 in/yr (20 cm/yr)• Summer high temperatures: -25˚C (-12˚F)

• Mercury freezes: -38.83˚C (-37.9˚F)• Ethanol freezes: -114.1°C (-173.5°F)

• Time zone: Christchurch, New Zealand


Distances and navigation• 700 miles (1130 km)

from Ross Ice Shelfboundary

• Scott’s actual plannedroute: 1530 miles (2500 km)

200 ft(61 m)

11000 ft(3350 m)

Base Camp Pole

10Copyright © 2018 Richard BrennerCopyright © 2018 Richard Brenner

Photos courtesy Robert Schwarz

A time series at sunrise30 minutes between exposures

Navigation at the pole

• Only one sunrise and one sunset per year• Sun has no noon maximum• Special techniques for navigational

measurements are required• A solid claim is based on boxing your position


State of Antarctic exploration in 1910

…and many more

ShackletonNimrod 1907-09de Gerlache

Belgica 1898

Scott Discovery1901-04

UnknownKnown


Expedition strategy

• Travel by ship to Ross Ice Shelf boundary• Land all supplies and build base camp• Preposition supplies at a series of depots• Winter over• Mount assault in Spring• Return by end of Summer

Base Camp Pole

DepotDepot

Depot



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Norwegian school of polar exploration• First enunciated by Ludvig Schmelck• Front page of Christiania (Oslo)

newspaper late 1880s• Previous expeditions had:

• Large number of heterogeneous elements• Clumsy and expensive organization

• Proposed a “new method” of polarexploration• Limited number of participants• Highly trained, physically ready• All keep pace with each other

• Today we call this agile development• Military analog: maneuver warfare• Medical analog: minimally invasive surgery

Ludvig Schmelck1857-1916


The two expeditions by the numbersScott Amundsen

Depart 15 Jun 1910 09 Aug 1910Arrive base 04 Jan 1911 14 Jan 1911

Complement 65 men, 19 ponies, 33 dogs, 3 motor sledges

19 men, 97 dogs

grt/person 11.5 22Winter over 33 men, 17 ponies, 33

dogs, 2 motor sledges9 men, 93 dogs

Depart for pole 01 Nov 1911 19 Oct 1911Departure

party17 men, 8 ponies, 30 dogs,2 motor sledges, 10 sledges

5 men, 4 sledges, 52 dogs

Pole party 5 men, 1 sledge 5 men, 3 sledges, 16 dogsETA pole 22 Dec 1911 5±3 Dec 1911

Arrive pole 16 Jan 1912 14 Dec 1911Return to base N/A 25 Jan 1912


Ross Ice Shelf/scale

Face of the Ross Ice Shelf

Terra Nova at the ice edge

Approximately 200 feet (61 m)above the sea surface; as

much as 3000 feet (915 m) below

Photo: Michael Van Woertz, NOAASource: Wikimedia Commons

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Scott’s Last Expedition


Two routes to the poleRead:How to MakeGood Guesses: Strategy

Ross Ice Shelf isthe size of

France

London

New Orleans Calcutta

Wellington

King Edward VIILand

Amundsen’sBase

Map (cc) SoerfmSource: Wikipedia

Scott’s Base

TransantarcticMountains


The “customer”• The customer: Nature and the elements• Nature and the elements would decide:

• Which user stories would determine the design• What defects the products had• Whether the product was acceptable

• Open questions:• How to get customer participation prior to

development• How to get customer participation during

development

In this analogy, the “executives” werethe financial backers of the two expeditions


The menuSatisfy the customer early and often• Welcome changing requirements• Deliver frequentlyCollaborate with the customer• Support, trust, and focus on motivated people• Face-to-face is best• Measure progress by what’s working• Work at a pace sustainable by allValue technical excellence and good designSimplicity is essential• Self-organizing teams produce the best results• Regular reflection is the basis of behavioral

advancement



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1. Satisfy the customer early and often

• Five main benefits• Effective management of customer anxiety• Effective management of executive anxiety• Gather data for strategic corrections• Reduce risk of misunderstandings• Create sense of accomplishment within team

• For Amundsen and Scott, customer anxiety is a non-issue


Depot journeys provided early tests

• Both expeditions used depot strategy to move materiel South

• Journeys provided early tests of transport• Issues for Scott were not addressed

• Ponies slowed the entourage• Packing/unpacking cumbersome• Morale problems and conflict rife• Sledge meters jammed

• Amundsen used the depot journeys as tests


Scott’s depot journey

Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Scott's Last Expedition

Ponies behind their shelter in camp on the barrier


Scott’s depot journey results• Planned in the week prior to execution

• One main journey prepositioned about one ton of supplies• Some other incidental prepositioning

• Dogs, skiers performed well. Ponies didn’t.• Only one set of pony snowshoes• 7 of 8 ponies lost• Scott refuses to have the others slaughtered

• In distress, Scott orders “One Ton Depot” laid• 24 days to reach 37 miles north of intended 80° latitude• Scott returns via dog sled• Depot marked with a single flag

• All overworked with respect to diet• Low morale, toxic conflict, feeling of failure• Scott likely clinically depressed


Amundsen’s first depot


Source: (cc) National Library of Norway

First depot journey


About Amundsen’s depot journeys

• A year in the planning• Three journeys prepositioned three tons of

supplies• First journey: 5 days round trip (80°)• First experience of long trips• Found a route to the top of the “Barrier”• Investigated its surface• Tested equipment: ski, sledges, harnesses,

clothing, tents, sleeping bags



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Amundsen’s depotjourney discoveries• Issues

• Getting going in the morningtook too long: 4 hours

• Sledges too heavily builtfor the conditions

• Boots too small and stiff• Dogs overworked

• Innovations• Boots, sledges rebuilt• Transverse depot flagging

(9 km East and West,East axe cut)

• Single 5-man tent built from two 3-man tents• Thermos flasks saved time at lunch

Sir James Dewar(1842 – 1923)


Take-aways for:Satisfy the customer early and often1. Team ownership of a problem produces

better solutions2. When working in unknown territory,

retrospectives and reflection are essential3. You can’t deviate from a plan you don’t

have4. Large numbers of tiny bits of time add up



advancement


4. Collaborate with the customer

• Exploit situational momentum:

• Overcoming a situation requires:• Elaborate apparatus• Extensive effort• In organizations, political capital

• Exploiting features of the situation =finding a way to collaborate with it

Use the elements of the situationto your advantage rather than tryingto overcome or defeat the situation


Elements of solar geometry

CapeEvans

Framheim

South Pole

Earth’s rotation

Local noon sun

Source: NASA scientific visualization studio


Scott’s travel schedule

• On the trip South, travel by “day”• Start of day’s march: sun to their left• Noon: sun behind• End of day’s march: sun to their right

• On the return trip North, travel by “day” also• Start of day’s march: sun to their right• Noon: sun ahead• End of day’s march: sun to their left

• Disadvantages on return North• More difficult to see southbound trail, cairns,

pennants• Greater risk of snow blindness



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Amundsen’s travel schedule

• On the trip South, travel by “day”• Start of day’s march: sun to their left• Noon: sun behind• End of day’s march: sun to their right

• On the return trip North, travel by “night”• Start of night’s march: sun to their left• Midnight: sun behind• End of night’s march: sun to their right

• Advantages• Easier to see old southbound trail, cairns,

pennants• Less risk of snow blindness


Canine coprophagia

• Coprophagia: the consumption of feces, from the Greek:• κόπρος copros (“feces”)• φαγεῖν phagein (“to eat”)

• Scott’s and Amundsen’sapproach in transit differed markedly

• Amundsen’s approachin winter camp simplifiedwaste disposal

Source: National Library of Norway

Oskar Wisting with his dog team at the South Pole


Scott’s “fuel”

Francis Davies constructing Scott’s hut, 10 Jan 1911

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Alexander Turnbull Library,

National Library of New Zealand

33

Pony fodderTotal: 45 tonsShown: 7+tons



Amundsen’s “fuel”

Source: Amundsen, The South Pole


Killing seals for winter and travel rations. Before winter 1910-11 fell, they had 60 tons of seal meat. Two tons were in depots.


Take-aways for:Collaborate with the customer16. Exploit situational momentum rather than

try to overcome it17. Leverage what’s available in the

environment if you can18. If you can’t alter the environment, learn

how to use it



advancement



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9. Value technical excellence and good design

Terra Nova, 764 grtfrom H.G. Lyons, British (Terra Nova) Antarctic Expedition 1910-1913

Fram, 402 grtfrom Amundsen, The South Pole

grt is “gross register tonnage”1 grt is 100 ft3 of enclosed volume

The two vessels provide a good metaphor for the differences between the two expeditions


Comparing Terra Nova and Fram

Terra Nova FramTonnage 764 grt (gross register tons) 402 grt

Length 187 ft (57 m) 127 ft 8 in (38.9 m)Beam 31.4 ft (9.6 m) 34 ft (10.36 m)Draft 19 ft (5.8 m) 15 ft (4.57 m)

Power plant Coal-fired steam Marine dieselPower rating 140 bhp (104 kW) 180 bhp (241 kW)

kW/grt 0.136 0.416

For ice work, vessel acceleration canbe more valuable than top speed

39Copyright © 2018 Richard BrennerCopyright © 2018 Richard Brenner

Funnel

Men

Source: Wikipedia


About Terra Nova• Built in 1884 as a whaler/sealer

• Compound Steam Engine• 1 screw• Complement: 65

• Worked for 10 years• Used in several previous expeditions• Lost: 1943 off Greenland on a supply mission


Terra Novahad issues• Coal-fired steam

power• Inadequate refit:

bilge pumps• Issues with loading

• Overloaded• Overcrowded• Motor sledges

stowed on deck• Vertical profile

41

Terra Nova in the pack. 13 Dec 1910Photo: Herbert Ponting

Source: Wikimedia Commons


What happened toEndurance (1915)

Endurance beset on the way SouthLost 21 November 1915

Photos: Frank Hurley. Source: Wikipedia


Shackleton



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Fram under sail in Antarctic watersDecember 1911Source: Amundsen, The South PoleFram

• Purpose-built 1892 to Nansen’s specs• Rudder and prop could be raised• Used for previous expeditions

• Fridtjof Nansen 1893-1896• Otto Sverdrup 1898-1902• Also used for rescue

• Refit by Amundsen: third ocean-going diesel, and the first long voyage for a marine diesel

• Engine installation: Diesels Motorer Co., Stockholm



Fram’s iceworthiness• Hull presents very little purchase to enclosing ice• Designed to force ice pressure to lift vessel• Internal structures manage ice pressure

Hull section, engine room Hull section, amidships


Fram’spowerplant

Fram Museum, OsloPhoto: (cc) Dr. Mirko Junge, 2010Source: Wikipedia 45Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner


Take-aways for:Value technical excellence and good design

39. For high-risk projects, avoid untried technology

40. Use whatever resources you can to master critical technologies

41. When you innovate, innovate with familiar technologies

42. Pay attention to the low-tech substrate



advancement


10. Simplicity is essential


Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Alexander Turnbull Library,


L to R: Lashly, Day, Evans, & HooperOctober 1911



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Two principles of simplicity

• Seek component attribute compatibility• Homogeneity of project assets isn’t always

possible• When heterogeneity is necessary, seek

compatibility• Seek component synergy

• Use assets that work well together• Use assets that serve each other


Scott’s team man-hauling on ski

From left: Evans, Oates, Wilson, ScottPhoto: Lt. Henry Bowers, 1912Source: Wikipedia



Scott’s Siberian & Manchurian ponies

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Scott's Last Expedition



Scott’s Wolseley motor sledge

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Alexander Turnbull Library of the




Seek attribute compatibility (1)

Mode S A mph kph CommentsMan walking • 3 4.8 Packed snow

Horse walking • 3-4 4.8-6.4 Packed snow

Sled dogs • • 6-7 9.7-11.3 Poor conditions

Cross-country ski

• • 10 16.1 Estimate; modern skier can sustain 14 mph (22.5 kph)

Motor sledge • 4.5 7.2 Pulling a 3 US ton (2.7 metric ton) load

In any one phase of a project, the most dysfunctionaltask team limits the overall performance of the project team

Speeds of transport modes (1910):


Seek attribute compatibility (2)

Pressure of transport modes:

Mode S A psi kPa CommentsHuman foot • 3 20.7

Horse hoof • 3-4 20.7-27.6

Dog paw • • 6-7 41.4-48.3

Cross-country ski • • 10 68.9

Motor sledge • 4.5 31.0 Estimated

Tucker Sno-Cat 0.6 4.1



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A crevasse on the Devil’s Glacier

Photo: Olav BjaalandSource: National Library of Norway

Copyright © 2018 Richard Brenner55

Helmer Hanssen &Oskar Wisting

Sverre Hassel &Roald Amundsen

Hell’s Gate on Devil’s Glacier


Take-aways for:Simplicity is essential44. Seek component attribute compatibility45. Seek component synergy46. Beware sponsors or leads who nurture pet

projects


Last words

• Agile approaches provide advantages far beyond software or project management

• We can learn as much from failures as from successes

• We can learn much about project management from large efforts that aren’t projects

• There’s much more to learn from these expeditions


Relevant publications• “Managing in Fluid Environments”

• Better Software, September 2011• Deals with adapting to change more rapidly

• “The Psychology and Politics of Technical Debt”• Cutter Business Technology Journal, March 2016• How to get control of technical debt• Download a free copy at: https://c4i.co/159

• “Leading in the Time of Data Breaches”• Cutter Business Technology Journal, August, 2014• Deals with decision-making in cyber security• Download a free copy at: https://c4i.co/wf

• “Creating High-Performance Virtual Teams”• Cutter Business Technology Journal, May 2013• Fourteen recommendations for enhancing performance of virtual

teams• Download a free copy at: https://c4i.co/wg


Resources

• Politics, meetings, communication, and conflict• Articles at https://ChacoCanyon.com/pointlookout/politics.shtml• Tips ebook 303 Secrets of Workplace Politics at https://c4i.co/32z• Articles at

https://ChacoCanyon.com/pointlookout/communication.shtml• Tips ebook 101 Tips for Communication in Emergencies at

https://ChacoCanyon.com/products/techdivide.shtml• Tips ebook 101 Tips for Effective Meetings at

https://ChacoCanyon.com/products/101tipsmeetings.shtml• Tips ebook 101 Tips for Managing Conflict at

https://ChacoCanyon.com/products/101tipsconflict.shtml• Links collection: https://c4i.co/297• Follow Rick on Twitter: @RickBrenner

https://www.Twitter.com/RickBrenner• Connect with Rick on LinkedIn:

https://LinkedIn.com/in/RickBrenner


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The Race to the South Pole: The Power ... - IIBA CincinnatiThe Race to the South Pole: The Power of Agile Development Presented to IIBA Cincinnati by Richard Brenner Principal, Chaco