The Race to the South Pole: Lessons for Leaders · The Race to the South Pole: Lessons in Leadership Presented to Baldwin Wallace University and the Northeast Ohio Chapter of PMI

The Race to the South Pole:Lessons in Leadership

Presented to Baldwin Wallace University and the Northeast Ohio Chapter of PMI by Richard Brenner

Principal, Chaco Canyon Consultingon November 7, 2019

Copyright © 2019 Richard [email protected] Canyon Consultingwww.ChacoCanyon.com 1

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1Copyright © 2019 Richard Brenner


presented to

byRick Brenner

Chaco Canyon Consulting

Building State-of-the-Art TeamworkIn Problem-Solving Organizations

[email protected] | @RickBrenner | @TechDebtPolicyChacoCanyon.com | TechDebtPolicy.com

Kerzner Lecture SeriesInternational Project Management Day

Baldwin Wallace UniversityPMI Northeast Ohio ChapterNovember 7, 2019


Our objective• Learn about leadership by examining the

race to the South Pole• British: large, well-funded• Norwegian: smaller, nearly insolvent financially

• Comparison reveals important insights• Axes of comparison:

• Overland transport• Team dynamics• Quality control• Risk management• Errors and recovery• Financing & politics

• Objectives & outcomes• Strategies• People and culture• Equipment & technology• Navigation• Scurvy


Headlines (1)

• Reaching the pole was a high-risk project• Simplicity is critical for managing risk• Sometimes success depends on risking your

own reputation• Especially for high-risk projects, team culture

matters• Choose your mentor(s) wisely• Have coaches who know how to guide you


Headlines (2)

• Pet projects can be a risk to the enterprise• Leader’s role: expressing purpose, being

passionate about it, listening, forging consensus, making the big decisions

• The bad news: much of this matters most for high-risk projects

• Exploit situational momentum• To leaders:

• Deliver the headline first• Deliver the bad news first


DownloadTo get:• These slides with working links, and• Annotated bibliography and filmography

https://c4i.co/3b1

Copyright © 2019 Richard Brenner


The challenge

What they wereactually trying to do

South Pole






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Antarctica composite

South Pole

Copyright © 2019 Richard Brenner7

Source: NASA, Intelligent Systems Division


Antarctica from space

Framheim

Cape Evans

South Pole

Source: NASA


Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station2006

Copyright 2019 Richard Brenner

NSF/USAP photo, January 2006

Amundsen-Scott South Pole Stationwhen near completion


Amundsen-Scott South Pole StationNovember 5, 2019


Source: webcam

Temperature: -41°C -42°FWind Chill: -56°C -68°F


State of Antarctic exploration in 1910

…and many more

ShackletonNimrod 1907-09de Gerlache

Belgica 1898

Scott Discovery1901-04

UnknownKnown

0º

180º


Objectives& outcomes

What each teamhad to accomplishto achieve its goals

Terra Nova at the ice edge

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Scott’s Last Expedition






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Summary of British objectives• Reach the Pole first, get back

to base alive, and report success first

• Explore what we now know asMarie Byrd Land and Victoria Land

• Prove value of motor sledges• Study embryo development in

Emperor Penguins• Collect mineralogical and

biological samples• Collect climatological data• Get Admiral’s braid for Scott

Photo: Jenouvrier @ WHOI / IPEV Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 13


• Reach the Pole first, get back to base alive, and report success first

Summary of Norwegian objectives

Source: Amundsen, The South Pole


From Amundsen’s journal

“Our plan is one, one and again one alone–to reach the pole. For that goal, I have decided to throw everything else aside.”

Amundsen in winter costumeSource: Amundsen, The South Pole


The outcomes (spoiler alert)• Norwegians:

• Reached pole 14 Dec 1911 (56 days; 12.6 m/d)• Returned 26 Jan 1912 (98 days; 15.0 m/d)• Staged in 5- to 6-hour days when traveling

• British:• 400 new plant, animal, and fossil specimens• Reached pole 17 Jan 1912 (76 days; 10.1 m/d)• Staged in 8+ hour days when traveling• Three bodies located 12 Nov 1912 near 80º South • Two others had died along the way; never found

The puzzle: What accounts for the difference in outcomes of the pole parties?


Insights about objectives

• High-risk projects often contain surprises• Multiple surprises can lead to failure• Keeping things simple can limit the incidence

of surprises• Don’t push it. Comfortable margins are

necessary.

Simplicity is a way to limitthe risks that need managing


Strategies

Action plans andpolicies they usedto achieve theirobjectives

King Edward VIILand






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Basic strategy for both

• Travel by ship to Ross Ice Shelf boundary• Land all supplies and build base camp• Pre-position supplies at a series of depots• Winter over• Mount assault in Spring• Return by end of Summer

Base Camp Pole

DepotDepot

Depot


Scott: Follow conventional wisdom

• Applied Royal Navy methods:• Nutrition• Navigation: naval methods for lower latitudes• Manage people through command and control

• Transport: “Man-hauling” is virtuous• Also use ponies, motor sledges, and a few dogs• Motor sledges were a pet project of Scott’s

• Make plans• All plans are perfect• Not subjected to review• Rely on talented improvisation to fill any minor

gaps

21Copyright © 2019 Richard BrennerCopyright © 2019 Richard Brenner

21“Taking the ill-fated motor-sledge off theTerra Nova, Antarctica, 8 January 1911”

Planking to protect the ice

Motor Sledge

Photo: Herbert PontingSource:Alexander Turnbull Library,

National Library of New Zealand


Amundsen: Use what works

• Amundsen ignored conventional wisdom• Relied on evidence:

• Nutrition: fresh food, fiber• Navigation: latest methods and multiple

navigators• Manage people through loyalty

• Transport: dogs and ski• Make plans:

• No plan is perfect• Review all plans repeatedly• Replan based on evidence

• Identify and manage risks


Amundsen: Exploit situational momentum

• Exploiting situational momentum means:

• Amundsen used situational momentum• Scott tried to overcome the situation• Examples:

• Night travel• Food for beasts of burden• Canine coprophagia

Use the elements of the situationto your advantage rather than

overcoming or defeating the situation


24

Photo: Benjamin HamptonSource: Peary-MacMillan Arctic Museum,

Bowdoin College, via Wikipedia

Photo: Brown BrosSource: The World’s Work,

1909, via Wikipedia

Frederick Cook Robert Peary






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Amundsen was scooped

• Amundsen had been planning a North Pole expedition

• Had some funding• Scooped in 1909: both Cook and Peary

claimed they had reached the pole• Announced that instead of the North Pole he

would do scientific exploration in the Arctic• Secretly redirected his expedition to South

Pole


Amundsen’s secret plan

Map (cc) NuclearVacuumSource: Wikipedia

Madeira

Christiania (Oslo)


Scott: Make up rules that favor you

• Scott claimed personal ownership of McMurdo Sound environs as base camp

• There was no such law• Advantage:

• Access to a known path to the pole• Ability to plan for that path• Risk reduction

• His claim deterred Amundsen


Two routes to the poleRead:How to MakeGood Guesses: Strategy

Ross Ice Shelf isthe size of

France

TransantarcticMountains

London

New Orleans Calcutta

Wellington

King Edward VIILand

Scott’s Base Amundsen’sBase

Map (cc) SoerfmSource: Wikipedia


Take away your opponent’sgreatest asset


Amundsen in winter costumeSource: Amundsen, The South Pole

Scott in polar gear

Photo: Herbert PontingSource:Alexander Turnbull Libraryvia Wikipedia


Strategy insights

• Use conventional wisdom as a guide, not a constraint

• Use what works• Exploit situational momentum• Sometimes, risking your reputation is

necessary• Make up rules that favor you• If you cross an ethical line and succeed, the

world may forgive you, but if you fail, you’re probably finished






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Source:Scott’s Last Expedition

Source: Amundsen,The South Pole

The leaders


How they came to be the leaders of their expeditions


Scott’s career• Born June 6, 1868• Ambitious• Not particularly talented as a commander

• Promoted Commander for Discovery expedition (Aug 1901)• Promoted Captain 10 Sep 1904• Victorious (Aug 1906-Jan 1907) Flag captain to RADM

Egerton• Albemarle (Jan 1907-Aug 1907) Flag captain to RADM

Egerton• Terra Nova expedition 1910-1912• Saw polar work as a path to promotion• Not particularly passionate about exploration


Amundsen’s career through 1912• Born July 16, 1872• Merchant captain, but his mother wanted him to be

a doctor• Skilled and experienced polar traveler• Lifelong ambition: first to reach the North Pole• Member of first party to winter in Antarctica Belgica

1898• First to traverse Northwest Passage Gjøa, 17 Aug

1905• First to demonstrate motion of Earth’s magnetic pole

Gjøa, May 1905• First to reach the South Pole Fram 14 Dec 1911


Photo: Elliott & FrySource: Wikipedia

Photo: Ludvig Forbech (cc)Source: Wikimedia

Fridtjof Nansen ca 1900 Sir Clements Markham ca 1904


Scott’s mentor: Sir Clements Markham

• Past president of the Royal Geographic Society

• Politically connected, astute, and effective• Agenda:

• Re-commit the Royal Navy to polar exploration• Make the RGS a leading proponent of polar

exploration• Limited experience of polar work• No experience of command or as expedition

leader• Believed in virtuous “man-hauling”• “No ski. No dogs”


Amundsen’s mentor: Fridtjof Nansen

• First to ski across Greenland 1888 (Small party, custom-designed equipment)

• Furthest North Fram 1895 (86°13′6″)• Extensive command and polar travel

experience• Scientist and polar hero

• Adviser to numerous explorers• Control of Fram

• Nobel Peace Prize 1922• Politician, diplomat, author• Strong advocate of ski and dogs






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Insights about the leaders

• Deal first with the greatest threat to whatever you’re trying to accomplish

• Be passionate about whatever you’re doing• If you can’t be passionate about what you’re

doing, change what you’re doing• If the work is a means to an end, and not the

end, choose low-risk work• Choose your mentors wisely


Power distance

Social hierarchy and inequality in the distribution of power can limit a team’s ability to execute high-risk projects successfully



Definition: power distance

• Large power distance is correlated with• Hierarchical decision-making• Collectivism and having a defined place in the

social structure• Small power distance is correlated with

• Democratic decision-making• Individualism and independence

Power distanceis the strength of the social hierarchy of a culture. It is the extent to which lower ranking individuals accept and expect unequal distribution of power.

Def

initi

on


Power distance and high-risk projects

• In Large-PD team cultures:• Team members tend to reject their own

misgivings about the plan• Team members tend to defer reporting problems• Team members tend to report that all is well

when they believe or suspect otherwise• Established ideas tend to obstruct innovations• Greater risk of the sunk cost effect

• These mechanisms make Large-PD teams vulnerable to risk events

The British team had a Large-PD culture;The Norwegian team had a Small-PD culture


British hut


Francis Davies constructingScott’s hut, 10 Jan 1911

Pony fodderTotal: 45 tonsShown: 7+tons

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Alexander Turnbull Library,



Plan of British hut

Source: Scott’s Last Expedition

View a 3-D Model of the hut

“Wardroom” “Mess Deck”

Wall of Crates






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Source: Scott’s Last Expedition



Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Wikimedia

Captain’s Insignia

Family Photos

Wife Kathleenm. 2 Sep 1908

Pipe Rack

Scott at his desk in the hut, 7 Oct 1911



Press photograph of Terra Nova ca 1910 Photo: Bain News ServiceSource: U.S. Library of Congress


Why the White Ensign

• Flag of the Royal Navy• Other official vessels too• Exceptions rarely granted• Mark of high status

• Terra Nova was not RN• Most officers were RN or

British Army• Military culture• They (and RGS) wanted the

White Ensign• Scott’s mentor made it happen


L to R: Atkinson, Meares, Cherry-Garrard, Oates (standing), Taylor, Nelson, Evans, Scott, Wilson, Simpson, Bowers, Gran (standing), Wright, Debenham, Day. P.O. Evans not present. 6 Jun 1911.


Capt. Oates Capt. Scott Dr. Wilson Lt. Bowers

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Alexander Turnbull Library,



A Framheim postcard


Source: National Library of Norway






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Framheim‚ 1911

Source: National Library of Norway



Plan of Framheim

Source: Amundsen, The South Pole


L to R: Olav Bjaaland, Sverre Hassel, Oskar Wisting,Helmer Hanssen, Amundsen, Hjalmar Johansen, Kristian Prestrud, JØrgen Stubberud.

Photo: Adolph LindstrømSource: Amundsen, The South Pole


Bjaaland Hassel Wisting Hanssen Amundsen


Scott’s work distribution style

• Largely directive, authority-based• Kept his process to himself• On occasion, and with little warning, would issue

orders• Consequences:

• Unbalanced loads (Bowers)• Infringing distributed responsibility (Lt. Evans)

• Example of tolerating:• Terra Nova encounters storms on the way South• Nearly founders• Lt. Evans saves the ship and all hands


Terra Nova in a st

• Terra Nova, over-loaded, encoun-ters severe storm on 1 Dec 1910

• Seams open, bilges flood, boil-er fires out

• Sub-Lt. Evans improvises repairs

• Saves ship and all hands

At the pumps in a galeMarch 1912

Photo: Herbert PontingSource: Ponting, The Great White South


Amundsen’s work distribution style• Amundsen’s style was mostly delegation• Led through loyalty not authority• He believed:

• Never check delegated task status unless invited• Delegate thoroughly, praise liberally• Even innocent inquiry might be seen as intrusion• Make everyone feel their work is essential• “Let everyone be independent within his own

sphere”

Delegation is more effective than direction in conditions of risk and uncertainty






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Delegation guidelines for high risk• The greater the risk, the more important is

delegation• You can’t delegate your own accountability• Have an inform-as-soon-as-you-know norm• Establish checkpoint expectations• Be prepared to rescind if necessary• Your subordinate has final say in accepting• Keep your promises• Delegate fully• Delegate authority, not just work• Never infringe delegated authority• Delegate work that fits the person


Insights about power distance

• Power distance matters most when risk is high

• Experience matters in every position• Power distance is communicated subtly• In high-risk projects small power distance is

an advantage• Delegate work according to talent and ability• You can’t delegate your own accountability


Equipment

Suitability of their equipmentand technology

L to R: P.O. Evans, Dr. Wilson pitching atent at the summit of Beardmore Glacier

Photo: Lt. BowersSource: Scott’s Last Expedition


How they selected equipment

• Scott:• Commercial cooking gear, fuel storage, tents,

skis, boots, sledges, harnesses• Clothing: fabrics tailoring followed conventional

wisdom• Amundsen:

• Commercial cooking gear• Custom-made fuel storage, tents, skis, boots,

sledges, harnesses• Clothing: fur and tailoring followed indigenous

arctic peoples


Innovations

• Scott:• Telephone• Motor sledge

• Amundsen:• Thermos flask• Sledge meter• Fuel storage• Tent: Floor sewn in,

pitched from inside

60Source: Amundsen, The South Poleat Project Gutenberg Australia

Amundsen or Bjaaland ascending Mt. Betty 17 Nov 1911 Dogs






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Scott’s motor sledge



Amundsen’s thermos

• Dewar flask invented by James Dewar in 1892

• Patented by Thermos, commercialized 1904• Amundsen adopted it:

• Reduced time, labor required for lunch• Enabled him to carry water, store it overnight

Small innovations—like small mistakes—can have enormous impact


Amundsen’s sledge meters


Sledge meter wheelSledge meter wheel

Dogs

Depot

Dogs

Tent HarnessesMan

Source: Amundsen, The South PoleAmundsen’s party at the 85º depot


Scott’s sledge meters


Scott’s party at Barrier Inlet, ca 1911

Sledge meter wheel

Snow walls

Photo: Robert F. ScottSource: Alexander Turnbull Library,



Perfecting the sledge meter

• Sledge meter measures distance traveled• Useful for reckoning position• Mitigates need to make actual sun sightings• Helps monitor pace

• Problem: drift snow gets into the gears• Drift snow particles are small• Cause sledge meter wheel to undercount distance

• Scott used commercial sledge meters• Amundsen also had commercial models

• Dissatisfied with performance on depot runs• Over winter, had them completely rebuilt


Insights for innovations

• For high-risk projects, avoid untried technologies

• When you innovate, innovate with familiar technologies

• True mastery of critical technologies can be innovative

• Attend to critical elements of the low-tech substrate

To run ahead of the pack, youmust leave the pack behind






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Navigation

Navigation is more than “where am I.” It can be the differ-ence between life and death, or financial health and bankruptcy. Source: Amundsen, The South Pole v. II

Project Gutenberg Australia


Photos courtesy Robert Schwarz

A time series at sunrise30 minutes between exposures

Navigation at the pole

• Only one sunrise and one sunset per year• Sun has no noon maximum• Special techniques for navigational

measurements are required• A solid claim is based on boxing your position



Royal GeographicSociety


Sir Clements Markham


A seminar in polar navigation

• November 1909 Arthur Hinks seminar at RGS• Navigation is a hot topic because of Peary and

Cook• Scott attended, but ignored the specialists

• Navigating near the pole is peculiar• All meridians converge• Finding longitude is both difficult and useless

• Near the pole• Scott continued to use laborious navigational

methods to calculate position, including longitude• Amundsen calculated latitude, and just steered

South


Non-magnetic sledge

• Amundsen’s lead sledge was non-magnetic• Driven by Helmer Hanssen (best dog driver)• No ferrous material in construction or load• Enhanced accuracy in

course-keeping• Fitted with special compass:

• Mounted on gimbals• Protective case• Similar to a marine mounting

Helmer Hanssen’s compassReduced the need to halt

for compass reading


Amundsen’s snow beacons


One of Amundsen’s snow beacons onthe barrier surface

Source: Amundsen, The South Pole v. IIProject Gutenberg Australia

Sledge meter wheelSledge meter wheel Dogs BeaconDogs

72






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Amundsen’s navigation

• Snow cairns every three miles, 1 per hour• Two meters high, one visible from the next• Each contains position, distance to last depot,

bearing to previous cairn• Depots flagged east and west

• Five miles, every half mile• Each pennant numbered, with distance and

bearing to depot• On return, use dog spoor to locate trail• Multiple navigators to check each other


Scott’s navigation

• Depots marked with a single pennant• Cairns too low, badly made, too few for

navigation• No dog spoor marking the trail (no dogs)

• Had to unharness and scratch to find outbound trail

• Old tracks drifted up• Old tracks hard to detect with sun ahead


Insights for navigation

• Avoid gathering data for metrics that offer too little added value

• Remove all sources of bias in assessments of project status

• Use multiple independent estimates of effort remaining

• Know how much more {work, time, resource} your project requires

• Know the early warning signs that your project is off course


Scurvy

How they dealtwith the scourgeof polar travel

Google doodle forSeptember 16, 2011About this Google Doodle


118th Birthday of Albert Szent-Györgyi

1893-1986

Biochemist

Nobel PrizePhysiology or Medicine1937Pronounce Szent-Györgyi; UK version

Copyright 2019 Richard Brenner

Source: National Institutes of Health

Szent-Györgyi in 1948 at the time of his appointment to NIH


Role of vitamin C• Essential nutrient involved in

• Repair of tissue• Enzymatic production of certain neurotransmitters• Immune system• Wound healing• Synthesis of collagen, important in connective

tissue, tendons, ligaments, skin• Corneas, blood vessels

• Scurvy: vitamin C deficiency• Bleeding under the skin, spongy gums, poor

wound healing, breakdown of scars• Suppurating wounds, loss of teeth






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About scurvy

• Age of Exploration (1500-1800), two million sailors died of it

• 1747: James Lind demonstrates that lemon juice prevents and cures scurvy

• 1753: Lind publishes his results• 1795: Royal Navy directs that all sailors must

consume rations of lemon juice• 1867: Royal Navy switches to lime juice (less

effective)• Multiple incidents among polar expeditions• Widely believed caused by pathogen


How Amundsen dealt with scurvy risk

Bilberries

Cloudberries Seal steak(cc) foodlists.ca

No sign of scurvy for entire expedition


How Scott dealt with scurvy risk• Scott followed (inadequate) Royal Navy

practice• Scurvy broke out on Discovery

• When Scott was away second-in-command ordered seal meat consumption, scurvy resolved

• Scott conceals the incident in Voyage of Discovery• Scurvy broke out again on southern journey

• During winter 1910-1911:• Diet was poor in vitamins B, C• White bread, tinned meat, occasional overcooked

seal

Several, including Lt. Evans, afflicted


Source: National Library of Norwayvia Wikimedia

FramTerra Nova

Last words

• Breathe• Listen• Assess• Decide



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The Race to the South Pole: Lessons for Leaders · The Race to the South Pole: Lessons in Leadership Presented to Baldwin Wallace University and the Northeast Ohio Chapter of PMI