8/10/2019 The High-Stakes Battle for Sri Lanka’s Presidency

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The High-Stakes Battle for Sri Lanka’sPresidencyAn invigorated opposition presents a challenge for Sri Lankan PresidentMahinda RajapaksaSri Lankan Health Minister Mithripala Sirisena !"# $aves as he arrives at a ne$s conference in"olo%&o 'ove%&er ()* (+),

By Sudha Ramachandran- ece%&er ).* (+),Mahinda Rajapaksa’s plans to return to power as Sri Lanka’s president for a third

successive term has run into trouble . With less than a month to go before the vote,Rajapaksa is ahead of his rivals but joint opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena isclosing in and could unseat him in a free and fair election.

ntil recentl!, Sirisena was "ealth Minister in the Rajapaksa government and#eneral$Secretar! of the Sri Lanka %reedom &art! 'SL%&(, the part! Rajapaksa headsand which leads the ruling nited &eoples %reedom )lliance ' &%)(. Sirisena’sdefection from the government on *ovember + to be named the joint oppositioncandidate took the government b! surprise .-he opposition’s decision to pit Sirisena against the president is a politicalmasterstroke. oth appeal to the same constituenc! / nationalists among the island’sethnic majorit!, the Sinhalese$ uddhists.Sirisena can 0eat into the Sinhala$ uddhist vote, which is Rajapaksa’s mainconstituenc! as well as draw support from the SL%&,1 &aikiasoth! Saravanamuttu,e2ecutive director of the 3olombo$based 3entre for &olic! )lternatives told The Diplomat . esides splitting Rajapaksa’s core support base, Sirisena is e2pected to winthe votes of the island’s minorities, who account for roughl! 45 percent of the island’spopulation. -amils and Muslims in particular are 0unlikel!1 to vote for Rajapaksagiven his regime’s 0human rights record 6vis$7$vis -amils(, including religious violence0targeting Muslims.1

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Sirisena enters the election fra! with 0a clean slate and is seen as a person of integrit!,1Lasanda 8urukulasuri!a, a 3olombo$based political commentator told The Diplomat . )t a time when Sri Lankans are tired of the corruption and nepotism associated withthe Rajapaksa famil!, Sirisena’s relativel! 0clean1 image could cost the presidentdearl!.Rajapaksa became Sri Lanka’s president in +559 after an election that was a closecontest: "e won 95.+; percent of the vote against his closest rival, Ranil Wickremasinghe of the nited *ational &art! ' *&(. Rajapaksa’s political standing onthe island soared after Ma! +55; when his government inflicted a crushing defeat onthe Liberation -igers of -amil <elam, bringing to an end the 45$!ear$long civil war.Sinhalese$ uddhists hailed him as the architect of that victor! and in presidentialelections held in =anuar! +5 5, Rajapaksa swept back to power. Riding the wave ofSinhala$ uddhist triumphalism that swept the countr!, Rajapaksa’s &%) has won allelections thereafter to parliament, provincial councils and local bodies, the onl!e2ception being the provincial council election to the -amil$dominated *orthern&rovince.

ut Rajapaksa’s popularit! has been waning in recent !ears. ) small pocket of civilsociet! activists and intellectuals who are sharpl! critical of his human rights record,authoritarian st!le of governance, bra>en nepotism, and widespread corruption have been joined over the past !ear b! the masses, who are unhapp! with the spiraling costof living under Rajapaksa rule.-his mounting disaffection has been reflected in recent election results. ?n March, the

&%) won two provincial council elections, but with reduced margins. -hen, inSeptember, results from the va &rovincial 3ouncil elections signaled a crisis:Rajapaksa’s support base was hemorrhaging@ the ruling alliance’s vote share hadplummeted from A+.4; percent in the +55; election to 9 .+9 percent.

While different factors come into pla! in local and national elections, the dwindling voter support signaled that Rajapaksa was not invincible. )cting to save his chair before it was too late, Rajapaksa called for presidential elections two !ears ahead ofschedule.

ut will his gamble pa! offB Coters will get to choose among ; candidates in the election fra!. ut this election isessentiall! a two$horse race between Rajapaksa and Sirisena.Rajapaksa is confronted b! an energi>ed opposition alliance, which includes amongothers the center$right *&, the Mar2ist =anata Cimukti &eramuna '=C&( and the=athika "ela ruma!a '=" (, a part! of uddhist monks that was until recentl! a

major Rajapaksa all!. -amil and Muslim parties are !et to indicate their preference.-he opposition’s disparate constituents are together on the Duestion of abolishing thee2ecutive presidenc!. ! its ver! definition, an e2ecutive presidenc! is anti$democraticand in Sri Lanka it has been more so, as constitutional checks and balances onpresidential powers were whittled awa! b! successive presidents, allowing them tofunction in an authoritarian manner.3alls for abolition of the e2ecutive presidenc! have been raised for decades andseveral leaders have promised to do awa! with it. Sirisena is the latest to join the0abolish e2ecutive presidenc!1 bandwagon. "e has pledged to abolish it within 55

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da!s of becoming president and to restore the countr!’s parliamentar! democrac!. Whether this promise will draw him votes is doubtful. 3onstitutional reform is an issuethat resonates with 3olombo’s educated elite, who understand that it is Sri Lanka’se2cessivel! powerful e2ecutive presidenc! that facilitated the slide intoauthoritarianism. -he need to abolish the e2ecutive presidenc! does not strike a chord with the masses, who are more concerned with the rising cost of living, corruption, etc.-o win the masses over, the opposition will need to 0draw the connections betweenthis 6the e2ecutive presidenc!E and the dail! problems of the voter,1 Saravanamuttusa!s. -he Duestion of constitutional reform 0has to be complemented with an economicplatform.1

ut raising economic issues could be problematic for the opposition. %or one, littleseparates Rajapaksa’s economic policies from that of the *&, the largest part! in theopposition alliance. esides, a focus on economic polic! could bring to the fore fissures within the opposition@ between the *& and the anti$economic liberali>ation =C&, forinstance. )nal!sts are also pointing out that Sirisena’s promise to appoint Wickremasinghe as

the prime minister in a unit! government could work against him. ?t creates 0doubts inthe voters’ minds as to who the! would actuall! be bringing into power b! voting forSirisena: Sirisena himself or Wickremasinghe,1 observes 8urukulasuri!a.-he influence that former &resident 3handrika andaranaike 8umaratunga will wieldover Sirisena should he become president, given 0her role in ushering in Sirisena as theopposition’s Fcommon candidate’ and her continued visibilit! on his election platform,1is another 0subject of speculation,1 8urukulasuri!a sa!s.?ndeed, some anal!sts suggest that the return of the old guard is prompting Sirisena’ssupporters to think twice. 0Wh! should an!one vote for Maithripala onl! to find thatRanil and 3handrika are back in power,1 asks political anal!st Ga!an =a!atilleke . 0?f

the voters sense a riskH that Maithripala will be used, dominated and discarded b!Ranil and 3handrika@ that he is just a front man for them rather than his own man,then the voters will, Duite understandabl! and even rightl!, opt to remain withMahinda.1"owever, it is the presence of Wickremasinghe and 8umaratunga alongside Sirisenathat makes him acceptable to the minorities. ) =affna niversit! professor told thediplomat that -amils see little difference between Rajapaksa and Sirisena. 0 oth havea Sinhala$ uddhist supremacist mindset,1 he said, with Sirisena seeming the 0lesser ofthe two evils onl! because he has Wickremasinghe and 8umaratunga 6who are moreinclusive in their approach to the minoritiesE on his side.1

-he stakes are high for Rajapaksa. "e cannot afford to lose power for several reasons."is famil! / sons, brothers, aunt, uncles, nieces, nephews and cousins / have benefited immensel! from his presidenc!. "is elder brother 3hamal is speaker ofparliament, and !ounger brothers #otaba!a and asil are Gefense Secretar! andMinister of <conomic Gevelopment, respectivel!. %amil! members have beenappointed as ambassadors to ke! countries, heads of banks, and governmentcorporations. %ift!$si2 percent of Sri Lanka’s budget allocation goes to ministries anddepartments controlled b! the Rajapaksa famil!. -he presidenc! is a cash cow for theRajapaksas and the! are unlikel! to let go of it easil!.

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esides, the Rajapaksa regime faces allegations of war crimes that are being probed b!the nited *ations "uman Rights 3ouncil ' *"R3(. "is government has opposed,even prevented *"R3 officials from conducting investigations.Rajapaksa cannot afford to lose the election as 0with loss of power comes the loss ofimpunit!,1 argues Saravanamuttu, pointing out that 0irrespective of their fate on thehuman rights and war crimes front, the Rajapaksas will undoubtedl! be hauled up before the courts on corruption charges b! a successor regime.1

“ Sta!ing in power is literall! and metaphoricall!, a matter of life and death for theRajapaksas,1 he sa!s.-he high$stakes battle for the presidenc! will be hard fought and Rajapaksa will leaveno stone unturned to hold on to power. "is access to state power and resources,control over the <lection 3ommission, the media, intelligence agencies, police, andother bodies give him an enormous advantage that he will not hesitate to use to ensurehis victor!.Rajapaksa’s supporters have sought to project the opposition bid to unseat him as partof a 0foreign conspirac! 1 to destabili>e Sri Lanka. Rehabilitation Minister

#unaratne Weerakoon, for instance, accused the .S. embass! in 3olombo of0pumping mone!1 into the election in a bid to defeat Rajapaksa . Sirisena is beingpainted as a traitor seeking to unseat the Fpatriotic’ Rajapaksa. ) deepl! superstitious Rajapaksa is believed to have consulted astrologers beforedeciding on bringing forward the election. =anuar! I was chosen as voting da! as thenumber I is said to be luck! for the president. "e is said to have filed his papers at anauspicious hour.-he stars ma! be aligned to favor Rajapaksa’s return to the presidenc! but he isunlikel! to leave his fate to the stars alone. "e is moving heaven and earth to ensure victor!. esides visiting a "indu temple in ?ndia to woo the gods, Rajapaksa will seek

more earthl! intervention: "e will use state machiner! to win the election. &re$electiongifts have been prepared to ensure the lo!alt! of officials. Coter intimidation, violence, bribing, and election irregularities on an unprecedented level can be e2pected. Dr. Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore, India. She writes on South Asian political and security issues and can becontacted at sudha.ramachandran li!e.in .

&osted b! -havam