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Sri Lanka’s controversial bond issue: ethics, judgement and governance in financial services
Fresh look at bond saga in Sri Lanka - Strategist 27/07/2015
The purpose
This presentation is an attempt to shed light on the potential dark side of a recent bond issue in Sri Lanka. While relying on secondary information we also review some “unusual” events that have taken place. Like in many other countries regulators in Sri Lanka cannot make an absolutely safe environment for financial services. Financial services sector in general and central banking in particular depend on, to a large extent, on ethics, judgement and morals of participants. Here we look at whether it is the system or the responsible persons have failed.
Background
A recent government bond issue by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka has become a key discussion topic in Sri Lanka and overseas. The issue appears to have the hallmarks of mismanagement at best and fraud at worst. Many academics and professionals have participated in the discussion. The estimated accounting loss is estimated at Rs 6 billion. However, most of the analysts have not taken into account the resultant reputational damage and likely negative impact on future bond issues and economy in general.
Sri Lanka’s controversial bond issue in perspective
SL’s controversial bond issue is almost unprecedented
When a central banker had come under scrutiny governments have acted swiftly to remove or suspend them
Sri Lanka was slow to act Nigeria’s Central Bank governor was
suspended by the president for financial irregularities. Stern action was taken.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26270561
Governance and compliance
There seems to be governance issues at high level Communication of facts has failed and/or facts
were communicated but ignored by the policymakers and lawmakers
Processes and procedures may not have been the best but they were sufficient
Real issue appears to be the failure to comply with existing processes and procedures
Lawmakers were at best slow to react and at worst covering up
Wrong start - political appointee not a central banker Appointment of a foreign citizen – unusual move Candidate with commercial experience but very
little central banking experience at senior level Candidate was not aware of the procedures of the
Central Bank Knowledge and skill of monetary policy setting was
also questionable. Consideration was not given to internal candidates Politics was a hindrance to rational thinking and
decision making Recruitment and appointment process was flawed
Triple “mistakes” – Volume, Price, Duration
Importance of metrics ignored - one cannot manage what one cannot measure
Volume: before purchase one needs to know how much to purchase. This should have been documented. It is the policy of any treasury operation. Transparency was lacking.
Communication of the volume is paramount to market efficiency – foundation of financial markets.
It appears reasonable effort was not made to communicate the volume needed in an impartial manner
Triple “mistakes” – Volume, Price, Duration
It appears that some of the participants were aware of the volume. This disadvantaged the other participants
Bank staff have raised this issue
Once again market efficiency was compromised
Determining price - know thy price
Trading price or price range should be realistic
It should be meaningful relative to the prevailing market conditions
Efficient markets should deliver efficient prices
Extreme price volatility is a sign of market distortions
Up to 300 b.p. (basis points) above the market is an unacceptable variation
Price does not reflect the prevailing interest rate structure. Global interest rates are stable.
Determining price – market efficiency Market distortion created by “unlimited information
to limited number of participants” created a privileged position for some
Arms length rule was not followed Prudent person rule was violated Relationship between the governor and a
participant was not disclosed Related party transaction gives rise to insider
trading claims which in turn is a serious offence Punishment for insider trading is a prison sentence
in many countries
Determining price – use of available information
Price is relative to the prevailing environment
Prevailing environment should have been analysed using available information
Dealing and research teams had the required information
Did decision makers “intentionally” ignore the information and recommendations?
In a well-developed central banking system why was the communication so poor between the governor and his advisors? Was advice ignored?
Duration – transparent information
Duration is basic information that any treasury manager should know
Duration of the portfolio should have been analysed and discussed in debt management strategy meetings
Yield curve – relationship between interest rates and time to maturity of the bonds – should have been available in documents and on computer screens (or even mobile phones)
Given the published information available better decisions on duration could have been made.
Duration – internal strategy ignored?
Required information was available
Duration was clear
Current interest structure and expectations were reasonably clear – global interest rates were unlikely to increase sharply
Shorter duration bonds would have been more appropriate to the requirements
Available information has not been taken into account
Unusual Trinity – Was interest of CBSL compromised by Governor/Son-in-law relationship?
Central Bank of Sri Lanka
(CBSL)
Perpetual Treasuries
(PT) Bank of Ceylon
Triple failures
Failure 1: Related party was not disclosed
Failure 2: Unusual related party transaction was not disclosed giving rise to an insider trading claim
Failure 3: Expert advice ignored
Dealer (PT) using another dealer (BOC)
One cannot help but question this relationship
Perpetual Trustees used another dealer
An “unusual” move
Why did a state-owned bank (BOC) act as a dealer to a dealer(PT)?
Slow response from regulators
Regulators’ response has been slow
Only after extreme pressure from the lawmakers the Prime Minister agreed to a parliamentary enquiry
It is reasonable to assume that “political obstacles” forced regulators go slow.
President the Whistleblower
President identified the problem
Some may argue that the President of Sri Lanka does not possess the required knowledge without giving credit to his senior advisors
Common procedure is for the CB Governor to step down.
Failure to do so created further interest on this controversial bond issue
Did the President stop short of his duty by the country?
Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan suspended the Central Bank governor for “financial recklessness” and “far-reaching irregularities”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9c09b882-9a18-11e3-a407-00144feab7de.html#axzz3hK7ZGemd
http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2014/02/trouble-nigerias-central-bank
Should Sri Lanka also follow Nigerian example?
President’s inaction is unexplained to the market
Unprecedented damage is underestimated
There are estimates of Rs. 6000 millions of damage
These estimates do not take into account the reputational damage and resultant increase in interest rates for future issues
Also they do not take into account cost of high interest to the wider economy and resultant drag on the economy as a whole