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THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION
Series Editors
Avshalom C. ElitzurUnit of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bar-Ilan University, 52900, Ramat-Gan, Israele-mail: [email protected]
Laura Mersini-HoughtonDepartment of Physics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255USAe-mail: [email protected]
Maximilian SchlosshauerDepartment of Physics, University of Portland,5000 North Willamette Boulevard Portland, OR 97203, USAe-mail: [email protected]
Mark P. SilvermanDepartment of Physics, Trinity College, Hartford, CT 06106, USAe-mail: [email protected]
Jack A. TuszynskiDepartment of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1Z2, Canadae-mail: [email protected]
Rudy VaasCenter for Philosophy and Foundations of Science, University of Giessen, 35394,Giessen, Germanye-mail: [email protected]
H. Dieter ZehGaiberger Straße 38, 69151, Waldhilsbach, Germanye-mail: [email protected]
For further volumes:http://www.springer.com/series/5342
THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION
The books in this collection are devoted to challenging and open problems at theforefront of modern science, including related philosophical debates. In contrast totypical research monographs, however, they strive to present their topics in amanner accessible also to scientifically literate non-specialists wishing to gaininsight into the deeper implications and fascinating questions involved. Taken as awhole, the series reflects the need for a fundamental and interdisciplinary approachto modern science. Furthermore, it is intended to encourage active scientists in allareas to ponder over important and perhaps controversial issues beyond their ownspeciality. Extending from quantum physics and relativity to entropy, conscious-ness and complex systems—the Frontiers Collection will inspire readers to pushback the frontiers of their own knowledge.
For a full list of published titles, please see back of book or springer.com/series/5342
Series EditorsA. C. Elitzur L. Mersini-Houghton M. SchlosshauerM. P. Silverman J. A. Tuszynski R. Vaas H. D. Zeh
Amnon H. Eden • James H. MoorJohnny H. Søraker • Eric SteinhartEditors
Singularity Hypotheses
A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment
123
EditorsAmnon H. EdenSchool of Computer Science
and Electronic EngineeringUniversity of EssexColchesterUK
James H. MoorDartmouth CollegeHanoverUSA
Johnny H. SørakerDepartment of PhilosophyUniversity of TwenteEnschedeThe Netherlands
Eric SteinhartDepartment of PhilosophyWilliam Paterson UniversityWayneUSA
ISSN 1612-3018ISBN 978-3-642-32559-5 ISBN 978-3-642-32560-1 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-32560-1Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London
Library of Congress Control Number: 2012946755
� Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part ofthe material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformation storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are briefexcerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for thepurpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of thework. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions ofthe Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must alwaysbe obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the CopyrightClearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law.The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in thispublication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exemptfrom the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date ofpublication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility forany errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, withrespect to the material contained herein.
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To Saul, With love,—Aba
Contents
1 Singularity Hypotheses: An Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Amnon H. Eden, Eric Steinhart, David Pearce and James H. Moor
Part I A Singularity of Artificial Superintelligence
2 Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Luke Muehlhauser and Anna Salamon2A Robin Hanson on Muehlhauser and Salamon’s
‘‘Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3 The Threat of a Reward-Driven Adversarial Artificial GeneralIntelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Itamar Arel3A William J. Rapaport on Arel’s ‘‘The Threat of a Reward-Driven
Adversarial Artificial General Intelligence’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
4 New Millennium AI and the Convergence of History:Update of 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Jürgen Schmidhuber4A Aaron Sloman on Schmidhuber’s ‘‘New Millennium AI
and the Convergence of History 2012’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 794B Selmer Bringsjord, Alexander Bringsjord and Paul Bello
on Schmidhuber’s ‘‘New Millennium AI and the Convergenceof History 2012’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5 Why an Intelligence Explosion is Probable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Richard Loosemore and Ben Goertzel5A Peter Bishop’s on Loosemore and Goertzel’s
‘‘Why an Intelligence Explosion is Probable’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
vii
Part II Concerns About Artificial Superintelligence
6 The Singularity and Machine Ethics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101Luke Muehlhauser and Louie Helm6A Jordi Vallverdú on Muehlhauser and Helm’s
‘‘the Singularity and Machine Ethics’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
7 Artificial General Intelligence and the Human Mental Model . . . . 129Roman V. Yampolskiy and Joshua Fox
8 Some Economic Incentives Facing a Business that Might BringAbout a Technological Singularity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147James D. Miller8A Robin Hanson on Miller’s ‘‘Some Economic
Incentives Facing a Business that Might BringAbout a Technological Singularity’’. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
9 Rational Artificial Intelligence for the Greater Good . . . . . . . . . . . 161Steve Omohundro9A Colin Allen and Wendell Wallach on Omohundro’s
‘‘Rationally-Shaped Artificial Intelligence’’. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
10 Friendly Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Eliezer Yudkowsky10A Colin Allen on Yudkowsky’s ‘‘Friendly Artificial Intelligence’’ . . . 195
Part III A Singularity of Posthuman Superintelligence
11 The Biointelligence Explosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199David Pearce11A Illah R. Nourbakhsh on Pearce’s ‘‘The Biointelligence
Explosion’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
12 Embracing Competitive Balance: The Case forSubstrate-Independent Minds and Whole Brain Emulation . . . . . . 241Randal A. Koene12A Philip Rubin on Koene’s ‘‘Embracing Competitive Balance:
The Case For Substrate-Independent Minds and WholeBrain Emulation’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
13 Brain Versus Machine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269Dennis Bray13A Randal Koene on Bray’s ‘‘Brain Versus Machine’’ . . . . . . . . . . 279
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14 The Disconnection Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281David Roden
Part IV Skepticism
15 Interim Report from the Panel Chairs: AAAI PresidentialPanel on Long-Term AI Futures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301Eric Horvitz and Bart Selman15A Itamar Arel on Horwitz’s ‘‘AAAI Presidential Panel
on Long Term AI Futures’’. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30715B Vernor Vinge on Horvitz’s ‘‘AAAI Presidential Panel
on Long-Term AI Futures’’. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
16 Why the Singularity Cannot Happen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311Theodore Modis16A Vernor Vinge on Modis’ ‘‘Why the Singularity
Cannot Happen’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34116B Ray Kurzweil on Modis’ ‘‘Why the Singularity
Cannot Happen’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
17 The Slowdown Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349Alessio Plebe and Pietro Perconti17A Eliezer Yudkowsky on Plebe & Perconti’s
‘‘The Slowdown Hypothesis’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
18 Software Immortals: Science or Faith? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367Diane Proudfoot18A Francis Heylighen on Proudfoot’s ‘‘Software Immortals:
Science or Faith?’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
19 Belief in The Singularity is Fideistic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395Selmer Bringsjord, Alexander Bringsjord and Paul Bello19A Vernor Vinge on Bringsjord et al.’s ‘‘Belief in the Singularity
is Fideistic’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40919B Michael Anissimov on Bringsjord et al.’s ‘‘Belief in
The Singularity is Fideistic’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
20 A Singular Universe of Many Singularities: CulturalEvolution in a Cosmic Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413Eric J. Chaisson20A Theodore Modis on Chaisson’s ‘‘A Singular Universe
of Many Singularities: Cultural Evolutionin a Cosmic Context’’ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
Contents ix
