The 2016 Election and U.S. Foreign Policy

Paul Sracic, Ph.D.Professor and Chair

Department of Politics and International RelationsYoungstown State University

Paradox

• The election will matter for U.S. Foreign Policy

• Foreign Policy doesn’t matter much to U.S. voters

2016 Congressional Election

President, Congress, and Foreign Affairs

President, Congress, and Foreign Affairs

Zivotofsky v. Kerry (2015)

• “But whether the realm is foreign or domestic, it is still the Legislative Branch, not the Executive Branch, that makes the law. In a world that is ever more compressed and interdependent, it is essential the congressional role in foreign affairs be understood and respected. For it is Congress that makes laws, and in countless ways its laws will and should shape the Nation’s course. The Executive is not free from the ordinary controls and checks of Congress merely because foreign affairs are at issue.”

U.S. House of Representatives(246 R - 188 D)

U.S. Senate (54 R, 44 D, 2 I)

Senators Standing for Re-election in 2016

DEMOCRATS (10)• Michael Bennet (Colorado)• Richard Blumenthal

(Connecticut)• Barbara Boxer

(California) retiring in 2016• Patrick Leahy (Vermont)• Barbara Mikulski

(Maryland) retiring in 2016• Patty Murray (Washington)• Harry Reid (Nevada) retiring in

2016• Brian Schatz (Hawaii)• Charles Schumer (New York)• Ron Wyden (Oregon)

REPUBLICANS (24)• Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire)• Roy Blunt (Missouri)• John Boozman (Arkansas)• Richard Burr (North Carolina)• Dan Coats (Indiana) retiring in

2016• Mike Crapo (Idaho)• Chuck Grassley (Iowa)• John Hoeven (North Dakota)• Johnny Isakson (Georgia)• Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)• Mark Kirk (Illinois)• James Lankford (Oklahoma)• Mike Lee (Utah)• John McCain (Arizona)• Jerry Moran (Kansas)

• Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)• Rand Paul (Kentucky)• Rob Portman (Ohio)• Marco Rubio (Florida) retiring

in 2016• Tim Scott (South Carolina)• Richard Shelby (Alabama)• John Thune (South Dakota)• Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania)• David Vitter (Louisiana)

Continued Gridlock in Washington?

2016 Presidential Campaign

Democratic PartyBernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton

RepublicanPartyDonald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich

National Nominating Conventions: Democrats

• Democrats (Philadelphia, PA: July 25-28)

4,763 total delegate votes

2,383 to win

• 712 (15%)Unpledged PLEOs (Superdelegates)

"Allocation Factor" [AF] is:AF = ½ × ( ( SDV ÷ TDV ) + ( SEV ÷ 538 ) )

Where:• SDV = “States Democratic Vote” = the state's (or D.C.'s)

popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the three Presidential Elections just previous to the Convention

• TDV = “Total Democratic Vote” = the total popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the three Presidential Elections just previous to the Convention.

• SEV = State's Electoral Vote and• TEV = Total Electoral Vote = 538

AF X 3200 = Base Delegates (BD)

National Nominating Conventions: Republicans (Cleveland,Ohio)

• Republicans (Cleveland, OH: July 18-21)

2,472 total delegates

1,237 to win nomination

Republican Delegate Allocation

• From each state having cast its electoral votes, or a majority thereof, for the Republican nominee for President of the United States in the last preceding election: four and one-half delegates at large.

• plus a number of the delegates at large equal to 60% of the number of electoral votes of that state.

Republican Delegate Allocation• In addition, 1 delegate at large is awarded to a

state for any and each of the following public officials elected by the state:– A Republican governor– Membership in the Republican Party of at least one-

half of the representatives representing a state in the United States House of Representatives

– Membership in the Republican Party of a majority of the members of any chamber of a state legislature

– Membership in the Republican Party of a majority of all chambers of a state legislature

– each Republican Senator

Types of Primary ElectionsClosed = RedOpen = Blue

Early Primaries and Caucuses (February 1-23)

Super Tuesday (March 1, 2016)

Current Delegate Count

Current Delegate Count

Primaries and Caucuses Through March 5

The Delegate Selection Process

Democrats Rule VIII

• (F)(3)(c) All delegates to the [Democratic] National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.

Republicans Rule 16

• (a)(2) If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support . . . for any person other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized.

Explaining the Primary Vote?

Democrats

Democrats

Support sorted by Education levelSource: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/02/fractured_gop_field_is_pushing_trump_to_nomination_129849.html

Support sorted by income levelSource: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/02/fractured_gop_field_is_pushing_trump_to_nomination_129849.html

Support sorted by IdeologySource: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/02/fractured_gop_field_is_pushing_trump_to_nomination_129849.html

General ElectionNovember 8, 2016

Electoral Map

270 to Win

• 538 Electors

• Constitution demands an absolute majority

• Electors are elected on November 8, 2016

• Cast their votes in state capitals on December 9, 2016

• Votes are counted on January 6, 2017

• Possible 3rd Party candidates?

• If no one has 270 Electoral Votes?

House of Representatives Elects President!

• If no candidate has a majority the election is sent to the House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives votes by state.

• A majority of states is necessary (26)

• House of Representatives may only select from the top 3 candidates with electoral votes

• Has not happened since 1825

Who would win?

• Democrats and Republicans in most state delegations

• Currently, Republicans have a majority in 30 state delegations

• New Congress comes in on January 3, 2017

• New Congress would elect the President.

Foreign Policy?http://www.cfr.org/campaign2016/#/

Hillary Clinton

• Has called herself both a Realist and an Idealist.

• Opposes TPP

• Ratchet up sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine

• Help wean Europe off of Russian energy dependence

• Expand U.S. missile defenses in Eastern Europe

Bernie Sanders

• Opposes TPP

• Maintain sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine

Donald Trump

• Possibly “Offshore Balancing?”

• Opposes TPP

• Urge European states to put diplomatic pressure on Russia for its Ukraine intervention

Ted Cruz

• Opposes TPP

• Ratchet up sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine

• Supply Ukraine with defensive weapons

• Help wean Europe off of Russian energy dependence

• Expand U.S. missile defenses in Eastern Europe

• Take a stronger stance against Russia’s human rights record

Marco Rubio

• Supports TPP

• Ratchet up sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine

• Bolster NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe

• Increase NATO’s cooperation with nonmembers, particularly Moldova and Georgia

• Supply Ukraine with unspecified weapons

• Help wean Europe off of Russian energy dependence

• Take a stronger stance against Russia’s human rights record

John Kasich

• Supports TPP

• Maintain sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine

• Bolster NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe

• Increase NATO’s cooperation with nonmembers, particularly Finland and Sweden

• Supply Ukraine with defensive weapons

Congress?

The 2016 Election and U.S. Foreign Policy

Paul Sracic, Ph.D.Professor and Chair

Department of Politics and International RelationsYoungstown State University