Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM)40th session, 18-20 May 2011,
Climate and Pollution Agency (KLIF), Oslo.
Analyses of the attainability of national targets of the Republic
of Moldova
Sergiu Robu,
Institute of Power Engineering,Academy of Sciences of Moldova
www.ie.asm.mde-mail: [email protected]
Valentina Tapise-mail: [email protected]
Republic of Moldova.
• Location: East Europe, northeast of Romania
• Total area: 33845 km2• Population: 3.39 million• Capital: Chisinau, 716
thousands inhabitants, area 120 km2
• Moldova has NO fossil fuels resources
Gothenburg Protocol Ratification Capacity Assessment
• Moldova acceded to the Convention on Long Range Transportation of Air Pollution (CLRTAP) 1995, and ratified two Protocols of the Convention, heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants in 2002.
• To meet with the requirements of the Gothenburg Protocol and achieve targeted reduction of emissions, Moldova will have to comply with the following:
SO2 NOx NH3 VOC’s0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
49%
10%14%
36%
% EMISSION REDUCTION by 2010
Gothenburg Protocol Emission Ceilings – Reductions – Costs, ( ktonnes / year)
POLLUTANT
EMISSION
LEVELS 1990
EMISSION CEILINGS
2010
INDICATIVE REFERENC
E VALUE (€/KG)
% EMISSION
REDUCTIONFOR 2010 (BASE YR
1990)
REDUCTION 1990 – 2010 (KTONNES)
EMISSION REDUCTIO
NCOSTS (M€’s)
SO2 265 135 2.3 -49 130 299
NO2 100 90 4.6 -10 10 46
NH3 49 42 3.5 -14 7 24.5
VOC’s 157 100 4.6 -36 57 262.2
GRAND TOTAL COSTS EUROS 631.7
Pat O’Brain: http://www.infomil.nl/contents/pages/137973/nerechapter22005.pdf
Some publications that are representing the position of the Republic of Moldova in
climate change
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?rec=j&priref=7159&suchen=nhttp://www.clima.md/public/457/en/NIR_ENG1.pdf
Sectoral Breakdown of the Republic of Moldova’s GHG Emissions in 1990 and 2005
1990
Energy80.5%
Industrial Processes
3.1%
Solventes and Other Products
Use0.2%
Agricultura12.4%
Waste3.8%
2005
Energy65.0%
Waste11.8%
Agriculture17.9%
Solvents and Other Products
Use0.4%
Industrial Processes
4.9%
The national inventory of the Republic of Moldova includes emissions of:NOx, CO, NMVOC and SO2.
During 1990-2005, • NOx emissions decreased by 77.1 %: from 137.74
Gg in 1990 to 31.58 Gg in 2005; • CO emissions decreased by 73.1 %: from 429.05
Gg in 1990, to 115.22 Gg in 2005; • NMVOC emissions decreased by 59.0 %: from
103.12 Gg in 1990 to 42.25 Gg in 2005, • SO2 emissions deceased by 96.0 %: from 294.97
Gg in 1990, to 11.79 Gg in 2005
National Inventory of the Republic of Moldova
SO2 EMISSION CEILINGS 2010 – 135 Gg
NOX EMISSION CEILINGS 2010 -90 Gg
1Gg = 1 ktone
VOC EMISSION CEILINGS 2010 – 100 Gg
Energy Generation Sector
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
050
100150200250300350400450500
SO2 projection, tones
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
NMVOC projections, tones
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
NOX projections, tones
Reference Costs and External Costs of the Energy sector (no transport sector)
SO2 NO2 GRAND TOTAL COSTS EUROS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
299
46
345
282
16
300
EMISSION REDUCTION COSTS (M€’s) EXTERNAL COSTS (M€’s)
Emission
Transport & transformation
Exposure risk
Exposure route
Physical impact
Damage cost
Impact Pathways Analysis – IPA
Physical impacts (health consequences) and economic costs (damages and externalities)are calculated by tracing the fate of a pollutant from point of emission into the air,dispersion and chemical transformation, receptor uptake at some downstream location from the source,estimation of resulting impacts and costs.
The AirPacts program – Basic methodology
External cost a burden imposed on someone without providing proper compensation
Methodology of Damage Costs
500-1000 km
Regional area of impact
Conclusions
• Need more time to prepare and report national scenarios. July 2011 is optimistic deadline;
• Participation in GAINS Workshop of June 2011 can help a lot to speed-up the process;
Thanks for Your Attention
Sergiu Robu
Institute of Power EngineeringAcademy of Sciences of Moldova www.ie.asm.mde-mail: [email protected]
