Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios) TFIAM-Berlin May 2005

European Commission - DG Environment

Clean Air for Europe

Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution

(Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios)(Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios)

TFIAM-BerlinTFIAM-Berlin

May 2005May 2005

Duncan JohnstoneDuncan JohnstoneClean Air & Transport UnitClean Air & Transport Unit

DG EnvironmentDG Environment



The proposed content of the Thematic Strategy on The proposed content of the Thematic Strategy on air pollution is currently subject to the internal air pollution is currently subject to the internal decision making procedures of the Commission.decision making procedures of the Commission.

There are no guarantees that:There are no guarantees that:

There will be any strategy at all;

That the policy scenarios presented here will ultimately be the basis of the Thematic Strategy

Important CaveatsImportant Caveats



AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

The analysis of benefits/costs has been performed The analysis of benefits/costs has been performed by AEA Technology, EMRC & the Catholic by AEA Technology, EMRC & the Catholic University of Leuven University of Leuven (Paul Watkiss, Mike Holland, Denise Van Regermorter)(Paul Watkiss, Mike Holland, Denise Van Regermorter)

All reports of the CBA methodology, results and All reports of the CBA methodology, results and uncertainty analysis are/will be available on the uncertainty analysis are/will be available on the CIRCA websiteCIRCA website http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/r

eference_documents_1/analysis_methodology&vm=detailed&sb=Title

http://forum.europa.eu.int/Public/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/reference_documents_1/cafe_baseline&vm=detailed&sb=Title



Damage costs - baselineDamage costs - baseline

CAFE Baseline report 2000-2020CAFE Baseline report 2000-2020http://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/rehttp://forum.europa.eu.int/Members/irc/env/cafe_baseline/library?l=/reference_documents_1/cafe_baseline&vm=detailed&sb=Titleference_documents_1/cafe_baseline&vm=detailed&sb=Title

Human health impacts monetisedHuman health impacts monetised PM, O3 mortality and morbidity

Damage to crops and materials monetisedDamage to crops and materials monetised Ecosystem impacts quantified but not Ecosystem impacts quantified but not

monetisedmonetised



Baseline ResultsBaseline Results

End point End point output Pollutant

Acute Mortality Premature deaths O3

Respiratory hospital admissions Cases O3

Minor Restricted Activity Days (MRADs) Days O3

Respiratory medication Use (Children) Days O3

Respiratory medication Use (Adults) Days O3

Cough and LRS (children) Days O3

Chronic mortality * Life years lost OR

Premature deaths

PM

Infant mortality Premature deaths PM

Chronic bronchitis Cases PM

Respiratory hospital admissions Cases PM

Cardiac hospital admissions Cases PM

Restricted activity days (RADs) Days PM

Respiratory medication Use (children) Days PM

Respiratory medication Use (adults) Days PM

LRS (including cough) among children Days PM

LRS among adults with chronic symptoms Days PM



BaselineBaseline ResultsResults (2)(2)

Values for use in CAFE CBA: Effects of chronic exposure on mortality.

NexExt (2004): New Elements for the Assessment of External Costs from Energy Technologies Project Report for European Commission DG Research, Brussels, Belgium. Contract no.NNE5-2000-00045.

VSL VOLY Derived from:

Median (NewExt) €980,000 €52,000 Median value

Mean (NewExt) €2,000,000 €120,000 Mean value



BaselineBaseline ResultsResults (3)(3)

End point End point output Function Group

Baseline in 2000

Current legislation in 2020 (including

Climate Policy)

Difference from 2000 to 2020

Acute Mortality (All ages) Premature deaths Core O3 21,400 20,800 600

Respiratory Hospital Admissions (65yr +) Cases Core O3 14,000 20,100 -6,100

Minor Restricted Activity Days (MRADs 15-64yr) Days Core O3 53,913,600 42,415,500 11,498,100

Respiratory medication use (children 5-14yr) Days Core O3 21,355,900 12,925,900 8,430,000

Respiratory medication use (adults 20yr +) Days Core O3 8,833,600 8,171,700 661,900

Cough and LRS (children 0-14yr) Days Core O3 108,076,600 65,278,600 42,798,000

Chronic Mortality * Life years lost Core PM 3,618,700 2,467,300 1,151,400

Chronic Mortality * Premature deaths Core PM 347,900 271,600 76,300

Infant Mortality (0-1yr) Premature deaths Core PM 677 352 325

Chronic Bronchitis (27yr +) Cases Core PM 163,800 128,100 35,700

Respiratory Hospital Admissions (All ages) Cases Core PM 62,000 42,300 19,700

Cardiac Hospital Admissions (All ages) Cases Core PM 38,300 26,100 12,200

Restricted Activity Days (RADs 15-64yr) Days Core PM 347,687,000 221,999,100 125,687,900

Respiratory medication use (children 5-14yr) Days Core PM 4,218,500 1,987,700 2,230,800

Respiratory medication use (adults 20yr +) Days Core PM 27,741,700 20,879,800 6,861,900

LRS symptom days (children 5-14yr) Days Core PM 192,756,400 88,852,300 103,904,100

LRS in adults (15yr +) with chronic symptoms Days Core PM 285,345,000 207,562,100 77,782,900



Baseline ResultsBaseline Results (4)(4)

2000 (€bn) 2020 (€bn) Difference (€bn)

Low High Low High Low High

O3 mortality 1.12 2.51 1.09 2.43 0.03 0.08

O3 morbidity 6.3 6.3 4.2 4.2 2.1 2.1

PM mortality 190.2 702.8 129.5 548.2 60.7 154.6

PM morbidity 78.3 78.3 54.1 54.1 24.2 24.2

Total 275.8 789.9 188.8 608.9 87.0 181.0

Monetised Health Benefits

NB. Monetised damages to crops and materials are € 3.9 and 2.2 billion in 2000 and 2020.



Different approaches to Different approaches to target settingtarget setting

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Cumulative years of life gained (million years)

"Capping"

Gap closure

EU wide objective

billi

ons

of e

uros

[137] [97]

[Cumulative life years lost (million years)][107][117][127]

STOP

MTFR

[96]

41

Current legislation



Costs/Benefits D23 Costs/Benefits D23 ScenariosScenarios


Clean Air for EuropeAll scenarios (except baseline) include road transport measures, based on EMEP output with urban increment applied from IIASA Note excludes impacts on ecosystems

Benefits and Costs above the Baseline in Billion/year

Low Med High MTFR

Benefits - Low 37 45 50 56

Benefits - High 119 146 161 180

Costs 6 11 15 40

Net benefits (low) 31 34 35 16

Benefit: Cost (low) 6.2 4.1 3.3 1.4

Net benefits increase from low - high different ambition levels – but declining BC: Ratio



Benefits and Costs above the previous step in Billion/year

Base –

Low

Low –

Med

Med –

High

High –

MTFR

Benefits - Low 37.1 8.4 4.5 6.1

Costs 5.9 4.8 4.2 24.8

Net benefits (low) 31.2 3.6 0.3 18.7

Benefit: Cost (low) 6.3 1.8 1.1 0.25



Benefits by MS (A – “Low”)

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Benefits (low) above the Baseline in Euro per person/year

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Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (Costs & Benefits of Policy Scenarios) TFIAM-Berlin May 2005