Summary and Recommendations from the Joint TFEIP/TFIAM Workshop on Emission Projections

Marc Deslauriers, Environment Canada

Thessaloniki, Greece, Oct 30-31, 2006

Presentation Outline

Summary of the workshop presentations Copies of all presentation will be available on the

TFEIP website

List of actions points

Recommendations to the TFEIP

Session 1

Scene Setting – European legislative, policy and research drivers for projections

Presentation From The Task Force on Integrated Assesment Modeling (TFIAM) Provided context for use of projections in the

Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and highlighted sources of data input

Reinforced the drivers for better projections

Reflected on recent member state engagement with IIASA and lessons learned

Presentation By The European Commission Provided context for emission projections within the

revisions of NECD including the developments since CAFE

Illustrated the NECD review baseline and highlighted that there was consistency at the EU level and linkages with other policies (air pollutants, GHG, transport policies, agriculture, etc.)

Reported from the EC conference of Sept 2006

Presentation From The UNFCCC Presented on the role of projections within the

UNFCCC, the experiences and lessons learned

Reflected milestones for the UNFCCC projections

Provided background on the UNFCCC Guidelines

Identified best practices

Reported back on the results of 2004 workshop on projections

Session 2

Tools and approaches for developing projection estimates relevant to LRTAP Convention and NEC reporting

Presentation On The RAINS Model Presented an overview of the model

Multi pollutant/multi effect framework for identifying cost effectiveness of policy scenarios

Clarified input data required for projections from central and country specific sources

Identified problems and uncertainties for NECD pollutants and PM

Presentation On The PRIMES Model Presented an overview of the model, which is

a behavior and market equilibrilium energy model Including input data, coverage, and engagement

with member states Database update and model development

Provides input for the energy component of RAINS in absence of country specific data

Presentation On The CAPRI Model Presented an overview of the model which is a

“multi-purpose” modeling system for EU’s agriculture

Clarified the input data required, scope and engagement with member states

Outlined model development Clarification on the CAPRI baselines including policy

assumptions Outlined detailed model calculation procedures Identified the problems

Session 3

Current Issues and Problems Encountered For Projections

Presentations By Different Countries The UK highlighted the differences between the

data used as input to TREMOVE and National measurement data for road transport emissions TREMOVE emissions estimates were much smaller

for all pollutants( especially in urban areas) compared to those estimated in the NAEI

Spain presented their comprehensive emissions projections program Described the consistent methodology and

demonstrated some of the national database tools including the development of innovative nomenclature to link with the RAINS input

Presentations By Different Countries Italy presented the application of the RAINS-Italy

Identified discrepancies between RAINS-Italy and the inventory Discussed the harmonization between RAINS-Italy and the

inventory Comparison studies of RAINS-Italy with national inventories

indicated where improvements should be targeted for both Provided a robust assessment towards NECD 2010 targets

Presentation for Canada and the United States Identified similarity in the approach to compile the emission

projections to European countries despite slight differences in data availability

Highlighted difficulties of capturing equipment turnover in projections, which is common to European countries

Presented improvements in the approach to compile the projections but recognized the difficulties of including structural measures (eg. fuel switching)

Session 4

Other perspectives

Other Perspectives On Projections Presentation by EURELECTRIC

Explained that emission projections have inherent uncertainties and are subject to change

Demonstrated how projections and assumptions evolve across time, highlighting the importance of having adequate sensitivity analyses

Reminded us of the importance of engaging the industry associations in the development of the emission projections (technology costs)

Other Perspectives On Projections Presentation on the ammonia emissions from Danish

agriculture Highlighted the need for taking a holistic approach to assessing

the impact of future agriculture emissions Reported on a project to produce ammonia projections to 2025,

and demonstrated the need for excellent collaboration between different institutes to produce the most accurate projections

Presentation on the implications and importance of getting good projections for IAM Reported back of lessons learned from MERLIN and

ESPREME Explained the limitations and roles of the top down and bottom

up approaches and therefore the need for harmonizing Highlighted the need for the quantification of uncertainties and

input data (eg activity projections)

Other Perspectives On Projections Presentation on the modeling perspective

by Norwegian Meteorological Office

Identified the key limitations of country projections for transboundary modeling

Highlighted the need for information by NFR sectors, spatial distribution data, and seasonal variations

Session 5

Recent developments in projections assessment

Recent developments in projections assessment Presentation on the RAINS model

Presented the extension of RAINS to include GHG emissions (becomes GAINS) and the linkages to the EDGAR database

Integration of TREMOVE and city-delta Development of an agriculture module

Presentation on the TREMOVE model Presented the model structure (different modules), its data

needs, and upcoming developments, calibration, and stakeholder consultation

Presentation on agriculture NH3 emissions and projections from UK using the NARSES model NARSES is a nitrogen flow model that links to other agricultural

pollutants

Recent developments in projections assessment Presentation on developing emissions

projections at a the regional scale for Italy Highlighted the interaction between European national and

regional planning Explained the modeling approach used and the tools

developed

Presentation on the CLRTAP Projections Reporting Guidelines Presented the proposed modifications to the new reporting

requirements for projections which are now more detailed Highlighted the need for harmonization with NEC and

UNFCCC

Session 6

Agreeing on approaches to resolving problems

Action Points• Inventory Compilers (TFEIP)

• Best science (differences should be explored using reporting transparency)

• Guidebook• Ensure strong linkages and consistency between air quality and

climate change • Engage DG TREN energy analysis group, and other experts

from industry, transport and agriculture etc…….. (E.g. creation of another focal point/group in the TFEIP… TOR .. Closer links with and experience of industry developments (relating to activity and emission factors), economics, etc)

• Ensuring lesson learnt from IIASA bilaterals are incorporated into improvement programmes

• Co-ordination of improvements..• Extend Expert Panels to cover projections support.

Action Points

• Models (RAINS/GAINS, PRIMES, CAPRI, TREMOVE)

• Documentation (methodology, assumptions etc.)• Peer Reviews• A suitable forum for effective stakeholder

participation/interaction• Improvement programmes (e.g. Bilateral)• Countries should Internal networks, build consistency on

data uses• Co-ordination of improvements…• RAINS/GAINS transition… review/comparison/validation

Action Points

• Modellers (TFIAM)• Engage with specific groups with knowledge of projection

parameters (industry development, economic, agriculture (CAP), energy)

• Clear definition of scenarios• Continued input to validation of projections• Definition of “wants” rather than “needs” (e.g. Policies in

place.. What, when & how much..)• Investigation of Emerging Technologies (linking to all

stakeholders and done by the EP Projections)• Recognition of the importance of ex-post assessments in

informing future projections

• Emission targets (Fixed vs % change from base year)• Investigate possibilities for NEC & Protocol revisions??

Recommendations To The TFEIP1. Guidebook development

Good practice in preparing Emission projections National data sources, assessment of non technical

measures, checking, transparency in reporting, dealing with different approaches.

How to apply quality principals in practice…. etc Technology and new technology speciation/elaboration and

provision of technology specific factors

2. Forums for communications between projections experts

International within the TFEIP Member state at the national level

Recommendations To The TFEIP3. Creation of an Expert Panel for projections

Single panel (with links to existing EPs, other expert groups, and stakeholders)

Co-ordination of improvements… Assessment of strengths and weaknesses of

different approaches

4. Web based portal to provide Links to other expert panels, models, best practice &

tools Emissions projections forum/knowledge base Assessment of advantages and disadvantages of

using different models for different purposes