September 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

8/14/2019 September 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

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Penry Forges 17-Point Lead, Gains Edge as Strongest CandidateIn Three-Way Race, Frazier Again Tops; Norton Seen as Toughest Senate Hopeful

Below are the candidate results from the September 2009 online survey of Colorados

political temperature, including 474 participants (July percentages in parentheses):

If the GOP primary for Governor were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for to bestrepresent the Republican Party. (select one)Josh Penry (225) 47.5% (36.2%)Scott McInnis (143) 30.2% (35.8%)Dan Maes (40) 8.4% (9.5%)Other / None of the Above (66) 13.9% (18.4%)

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for Governor in thegeneral election in November 2010 is _____.

Josh Penry (204) 43.0% (33.3%)Scott McInnis (192) 40.5% (43.6%)Dan Maes (23) 4.9% (7.4%)Other / None of the Above (55) 11.6% (15.7%)

If the GOP primary for US Senate were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for tobest represent the Republican Party. (select one)Ryan Frazier (135) 28.5% (28.0%)

Ken Buck (117) 24.7% (11.6%)Jane Norton (108) 22.8% N/A

Cleve Tidwell (33) 7.0% (6.9%)Tom Wiens (12) 2.5% (2.8%)Luke Korkowski (4) 0.8% N/AOther / None of the Above (65) 13.7% (22.3%)**One-time prospective candidates Bob Beauprez and Dan Caplis were removed from this survey

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for US Senate in thegeneral election in November 2010 is _____.Jane Norton (138) ... 29.1% N/ARyan Frazier (117) 24.7% (28.8%)Ken Buck (104) 21.9% (12.7%)Cleve Tidwell (30) 6.3% (5.2%)Tom Wiens (17) 3.6% (2.3%)Luke Korkowski (2) 0.4% N/AOther / None of the Above (130) 13.9% (21.8%)**One-time prospective candidates Bob Beauprez and Dan Caplis were removed from this survey

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More Respect from the Right for Romanoff than BennetAment Surges In Front of Treasurer's Race; Gessler, Gardner Expand Leads

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) Democratic candidate for US Senate inthe general election in November 2010 is _____.Andrew Romanoff (197) ... 42.0%

Michael Bennet (129) ... 27.5%Other / None of the Above (143) ... 30.5%

If the Democratic primary for US Senate were held today, _____ is the candidate I would votefor to best represent the Democratic Party. (select one)Andrew Romanoff (164) ... 34.6%

Michael Bennet (69) ... 14.6%Other / None of the Above (241) ... 50.8%

If the GOP primary for Treasurer were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for tobest represent the Republican Party. (select one)J.J. Ament (153) 32.3% (19.1%)Walker Stapleton (92) 19.4% (19.4%)Muhammad Ali Hasan (22) 4.6% (6.9%)Other / None of the Above (207) 43.7% (54.6%)

If the GOP primary for Secretary of State were held today, _____ is the candidate I would votefor to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)Scott Gessler (203) 42.8% (31.0%)

Nancy Doty (84) 17.7% (27.5%)Other / None of the Above (187) 39.5% (41.5%)

If the GOP primary for CD 4 were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for to bestrepresent the Republican Party. (select one)Cory Gardner (203) 42.8% (34.0%)

Tom Lucero (108) 22.8% (20.8%)Diggs Brown (14) 3.0% (5.5%)Other / None of the Above (149) 31.4% (39.7%)

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Bloggers Take Colorados Political TemperatureSeptember 2009 Survey

Results and Summary AnalysisMichael Sandoval, Slapstick Politics (http://slapstickpolitics.blogspot.com), [email protected]

Ben DeGrow, Mount Virtus (http://bendegrow.com), [email protected] assistance from Mary Ila Macfarlane

Content OverviewOpen online from Wednesday, September 9, 8:00 AM MDT, to Friday, September 17, 5:00 PMMDT, the survey gauged opinion on prominent policy issues, philosophy, and politicaldynamics; as well as candidate preference and assessment questions for five 2010 ColoradoRepublican primary races and one Democratic primary race.

Participant Demographics

The survey was not intended to measure a representative cross-section of Colorado voters andthus has no direct predictive power on upcoming primary elections. It was however intendedprimarily for Right-leaning Colorado political activists to express their beliefs and preferences.The survey was controlled to prevent multiple responses from a single IP address.

The survey included 500 participants, self-identified as follows (results may not add up to100.0%, due to rounding), not all of whom completed the entire survey:Registered Colorado Voters: Yes (96.8%), No (3.2%)Political Party: Republican (83.1%); Unaffiliated (10.4%); Libertarian (3.8%); Democrat (1.5%);Green (0.2%); Other (0.4%).Gender: Male (62.9%); Female (37.1%).

Age: 18-29 (16.1%); 30-39 (18.9%); 40-49 (21.2%); 50-59 (25.4%); 60-69 (16.1%); 70 or older (2.3%)Region: The 7 county Denver Metro Area (58.1%); The Front Range/I-25 corridor other than theDenver Metro Area (23.5%); Western Slope (12.3%); Eastern Plains (3.8%); I-70/Ski Country(2.3%);Race: Non-Hispanic White (84.3%); Other/Multiple Race (8.1%); Hispanic or Latino (4.9%);American Indian (1.1%); African American (0.8%); Asian American (0.8%).Marital Status: Married (71.6%); SingleNever Married (19.7%); Divorced (7.4%); Widowed(1.3%).Highest Education: Less than high school (0.4%); High school/GED (3.0%); Some college(15.7%); 2-year college (7.8%); 4-year college (29.2%); Some graduate school (13.6%); Mastersdegree (21.8%); Doctoral degree (8.5%).

Political Affiliation (1=Liberal; 7=Conservative): Conservative (37.9%); Strong Conservative(36.0%); Moderate Conservative (18.9%); Centrist (4.7%); Strong Liberal (0.8%); Liberal (0.8%);Moderate Liberal (0.8%).

Total Conservative: 92.8% Total Liberal: 2.4%

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Opinion QuestionsParticipants were asked to rate their relative agreement with a series of 40 statements on prominentpolicy issues, philosophy, and political dynamics, based on a 7-point Likert scale(1 = Strongly disagree; 2 = Disagree; 3 = Somewhat Disagree; 4 = Neither Agree nor Disagree;5 = Somewhat agree; 6 = Agree; 7 = Strongly agree).

The 10 statements that received the strongest agreement on the 7-point scale (with rating fromJuly 2009 survey in parentheses):

1. The so-called 'public option' in the House health care reform bill will lead to a single payergovernment health care takeover. 6.18 (n/a)2. I would describe myself, on balance, as a fiscal or free market conservative, focusingmore on issues of taxation, government spending, or the economy. 6.09 (6.25)3. Bill Ritter's management of the state has contributed to worsening our current economicsituation. 6.08 (5.75)4. I am concerned about Michael Bennet's indecision on the union card check bill and otherimportant pieces of legislation. 6.03 (5.94)

5. Candidates, regardless of party, should be prepared to face a primary challenge.5.85 (n/a)

6. President Barack Obamas policies will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midtermelection. 5.84 (5.28)7. The TEA Parties are an effective method of voicing opinions on the size of government andtaxation. 5.81 (5.32)8. Votes in the US House will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midterm election.

5.71 (5.11)9. Votes in the US Senate will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010 midterm election.

5.59 (5.09)10. Regardless of whom the Democrats nominate, Mike Coffman will win reelection to CD 6 in

2010. 5.55 (5.35)

The 10 statements that received the strongest disagreement on the 7-point scale:

1. A Cap and Trade bill is, on balance, a good idea. 1.47(1.52)2. The Stimulus Bill has helped to grow the economy. 1.65 (1.50)3. My overall opinion of Democrats is positive. 1.67(1.65)4. Michael Bennet has shown decisive leadership as Colorado's junior U.S. Senator.

1.75 (2.04)5. Bill Ritter and Colorado Democrats needed to pass the FASTER car tax increase to help fix thestate budget crisis. 1.82 (1.69)6. Incumbents should not be challenged by primary opponents. 2.23 (n/a)7. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Bill Ritter will win reelection as Coloradosgovernor in 2010. 2.23 (2.48)8. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Michael Bennet, appointed by Bill Ritter to replaceKen Salazar, will win election for US Senate in 2010. 2.24 (2.59)9. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Betsy Markey will win reelection to CD 4 in 2010.

2.53 (3.01)10. It is the job of national organizations like the National Republican Senatorial Committee toendorse candidates early in the primaries. 2.64 (n/a)

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September 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results