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Colorado ElectricityPast, Present, and Future
Paul KomorUniversity of Colorado, Boulder
[email protected] Nov. 2015
Electricity for Colorado-Fuels and Trends: 1900 to 2015-Virtual Field Trip-Closer look: Wind and Solar Photovoltaic (PV)-Colorado Electricity 2015-2030
Georgetown: Hydro/coal-steam plant
Source: Georgetown Energy Museum
Colorado Electricity - Past
• 1876: Gas lights in Georgetown• 1886: DC hydro plant in Georgetown - 100
electric street lights Christmas eve!• 1891: AC hydro in Georgetown• 1901: Electricity lines run to Idaho Springs,
surrounding mines• 1924: various small electricity companies
combined into “Public Service Company of Colorado” (now Xcel Energy)
Source: Georgetown Energy Museum
Colorado Electricity - Past
• 1930s and 1940s: much of rural Colorado electrified, using loans from the Rural Electrification Admin (REA)
• Valmont coal plant (Boulder): 1924-2017• Cherokee coal plant (Denver):1957-2013• Craig Station coal plant: 1979-• Fort St. Vrain nuclear: 1979-1989
Colorado Electricity Trends: Growth in Natural Gas, Wind
Coal
Nat. Gas
WindSolar
Source: DOE/EIA
Coal still dominates!
This one powerplant outside Craig CO produces more electricity than all 1400+ Colorado wind turbines.
Trapper mine
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Trapper mine
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Craig Station
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Coal Mine in Colorado
Just outside Steamboat…
Natural Gas for Electricity
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Wind: 0 to 14% in 13 years
Coal
Nat. Gas
WindSolar
Source: DOE/EIA
11
Source: R. Wiser et al. 2015
Colorado ranked 8th in wind (2014)
Cedar Creek Wind Project
Source: Wiser et al, Aug. 2015
Advantages of Wind- Large resource potential• 0 emissions, 0 fuel costs• Low cost, competitive with fossil fuels• Mature, reliable technology• Strong supply chain, competitive turbine market
Challenges for Wind-Geographically limited,
requires ~6+ m/s steady wind-Variable output, no storage-Land and visual impacts-Transmission requirements-Competition from solar (!)
Solar PV: Still less than 1%, but growing rapidly
Coal
Nat. Gas
WindSolar
Source: DOE/EIA
60
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV)
International Space Station
Hubble Telescope
Mars Rover
Solar PV at Denver Airport
2.3 MW PV system in Rifle CO
66
Solar PV - examplesA large (3.2 MW) PV system, next to a 900 MW nuclear power plant:
2.8 kW rooftop PV systemBoulder, COInstalled July 2014
Source: Wiser et al, 2015
81
Solar PV - advantages-Will work anywhere the sun shines-No emissions, no moving parts-Can be sited on rooftops-0 fuel costs, very low operating costs-Long lifetimes - ~20 years-Can be sized from mW to MW-Can work on or off the electricity grid
82
Solar PV - challenges
- ~$3/watt, 19¢/kWh (lower with tax credits and rebates)- Output varies with the sun, not dispatchable- PV at or below ‘grid parity’ with diesel.- PV at or (in rare cases) below ‘grid parity’ for some distributed and even utility-scale applications.
Energy Disruptions
Energy Disruptions ~2010-2015
-Fracking technology (U.S., then global)-Nuclear power accident (Japan)-Natural gas price drops (U.S.)-Solar photovoltaic price drops (global)-LED lighting price drops (global)-Oil price drops (global)
Energy Disruptions 2015-2020
1) ???2) ???3) ???4) ???
81
What’s next for colorado electricity?
Coal
Nat. Gas
WindSolar
2020
???
Source: DOE/EIA
Colorado’s Electricity Future…key questions
-What happens if (when?) it’s less expensive to make your own electricity than to buy it from Xcel (YVEA, IREA, etc.)?-What happens if (when?) CO2 is priced or regulated?• -What if electric cars become popular?• -What happens when (if?) buildings are ‘zero energy’?
THE LONG VIEW
Source: www.eia.doe.gov
1800-1900: Mostly Renewables (wood)1900-2000: Mostly Fossil2000-2100: ?
ReferencesColorado Energy Data: DOE/EIA. www.eia.gov/state/?sid=CO
Renewable technology costs and trends, policy analysis, markets (US): LBNL. https://emp.lbl.gov/research-areas/renewable-energy
Global summary of renewables: REN 21. www.ren21.net
Back-up slides
81
What’s next for colorado electricity?
2020
???
Source: DOE/EIA
